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Santiago vs. Axelrod

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 21, 2013 -> 11:16 PM)
Yep. And Santiago to the bullpen doesn't help much when the Sox have no idea what to do with him there.

 

Right. Like I said, they aren't going to use him in high-leverage situations, so his impact in the pen is not much. That's not worth taking him out of the rotation.

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The bullpen problems are being terribly overstated ITT

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QUOTE (Jake @ May 21, 2013 -> 10:26 PM)
The bullpen problems are being terribly overstated ITT

agreed, Jones and Lindstrom need to work through their problems and if not and we get back in the thick of it over the next week and a half we will pick up something in the not too distant future.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ May 21, 2013 -> 10:15 PM)
Axelrod in the rotation instead of Santiago is making the rotation WEAKER.

 

Not if Santiago can't make it five innings or 100 pitches.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 21, 2013 -> 10:17 PM)
Developing a Johan Santana Lite starter over a long man or lefty specialist creates 5X more value for the long-term prospects of the franchise.

 

 

But back to Fathom's point.

 

Those 5/6 games he pitched in, the Sox lost. It's almost like you're envisioning him being used properly, and that could PRODUCE wins for the bullpen, but that's not squaring with reality.

 

Even if he was the best long reliever in the game, we don't have the type of offense to come back very often in those game he was sporting a 0.00 ERA....over however many innings he pitched the first couple of weeks.

 

You would have a point if he was like Zumaya with the Tigers in his prime and he could be trotted out there to put out fires any inning from the 5th through the 8th...and was equally difficult for lefties and righties to match up against.

 

Seriously? Johan? Come on man.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 21, 2013 -> 09:48 PM)
Seriously? Johan? Come on man.

 

 

If he ever learns to control the screwball, why not? Who are you going to compare him to, then? (Another reason is because Santana came out of relative obscurity, Rule V pick, etc. He wasn't on everybody's radar screen as a Top 50 prospect.)

 

That's a BIG if. Sure.

 

But he throws just as hard, if not harder.

 

Johan's bread-and-butter pitch was the change-up, just like Buehrle's. IF IF IF he can get it into the strikezone 50-60% of the time instead of 10-25%, then it's going to be a major weapon. (Langston was saying during the Angels' broadcast that it had "crazy movement").

 

Remember, he's only been throwing it for 2 1/2 years now.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 21, 2013 -> 09:48 PM)
Not if Santiago can't make it five innings or 100 pitches.

 

 

Same argument goes for Quintana, if not moreso.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 21, 2013 -> 08:48 PM)
Not if Santiago can't make it five innings or 100 pitches.

+1.

 

It's a lot like last year when he was closing. He's great for stretches then loses it for stretches. I like him, but he's a work in progress. He looked LOST in Anaheim last weekend.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 21, 2013 -> 11:48 PM)
Not if Santiago can't make it five innings or 100 pitches.

 

Santiago is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

Axelrod is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

 

You were saying?

 

 

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ May 21, 2013 -> 11:38 PM)
Santiago is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

Axelrod is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

 

You were saying?

 

Is that counting last season or just 2013?

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Santiago's last 28 innings, he has given up 28 hits 14 runs 9 walks 26 strikeouts 5 homers and has hit 4 guys. It is a small sample size and he may prove to be the multiple Cy Young award winner some here seem to project, but if Axelrod had the same line, it would be held against him.

 

I am one who always thinks Axelrod is going to get smoked, but for now he is doing the job. I don't know how anyone could complain if he is the one they select. Santiago would only have himself to blame.

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Axelrod has been better than anybody could have hoped for so far this season.

 

But Santiago has been even better than that. No way you can demote Santiago (either to the pen or to AAA) with the way he's been throwing.

 

You also can't just go with a 6-man rotation for more than a couple weeks because it leaves you a man short in the bullpen.

 

Ideally Axelrod goes to AAA to keep starting, but the bullpen is so thin right now I'm not sure the Sox can afford to do that.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ May 22, 2013 -> 12:38 AM)
Santiago is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

Axelrod is averaging 5+ innings and 98 pitches per start.

 

 

You were saying?

 

I know you have an irrational hatred for Axelrod, but here is the breakdown.

 

Axelrod has put up 52+ IP in 9 starts, and has pitched out of the 6 or more 6 of 9 times. Hector has done it 1 out of 4. Honestly you should make it 1 of 5 in reality, as the Sox pushed him out there into starters pitches in his last relief appearance as a reliever where he got hit around pretty badly as well (the game Gavin's arm gave out). It really looks like by the numbers that Hector is getting beaten up the second time through the order, as his OPS against goes from .730 to .853. For Axelrod is goes from .783 to .700

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The other thing that is worth throwing out there is some good old fashioned efficiency theory type stuff from high school. Even if Santiago would be the best starter, doesn't mean that its best for the team.

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There is the obvious problem with having 4 lefties in the starting rotation. That might work if they were all really great. So far, it would appear that only Sale and Quintana

are of that caliber, and we're not really sure about the latter.

Axelrod provides better balance in the rotation, and seems capable of filling the role of fifth starter. Seven of his nine starts this season have been quality starts. I think you take

that from your 5TH starter, any time.

 

The bullpen could really use a better left handed set up man. Thornton just isn't the same since he lost a couple of miles an hour off his heater.

I'm very nervous when Thornton is facing right handed hitters, aren't you?

Why wouldn't it be feasible to see if Santiago could take his place and relegate Thornton to a LOOGY?

Edited by Lillian

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QUOTE (Lillian @ May 22, 2013 -> 09:12 AM)
There is the obvious problem with having 4 lefties in the starting rotation. That might work if they were all really great. So far, it would appear that only Sale and Quintana

are of that caliber, and we're not really sure about the latter.

Axelrod provides better balance in the rotation, and seems capable of filling the role of fifth starter.

 

The bullpen could really use a better left handed set up man. Thornton just isn't the same since he lost a couple of miles an hour off his heater.

I'm very nervous when Thornton is facing right handed hitters, aren't you?

Why wouldn't it be feasible to see if Santiago could take his place and relegate Thornton to a LOOGY?

I get why traditionally 4 lefties in a rotation might be seen as a problem, but really, these guys wouldn't be in the big leagues if they couldn't get righties out and their stuff is quite different one from the other.

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Santiago is clearly higher ceiling than Axelrod, and his inability to get deep into games is likely a function of not getting the chance to do so for long enough a period of time. If you want him ready to be a starter in 2014, then he needs innings.

 

I think you have to demote Santiago to AAA, and keep Axelrod in the rotation, for now. See if Danks is healthy and at least semi-productive. By the time you know that, it is late June, and it is go-or-no-go time for the team anyway. So you then make your call on buying or selling. If you are buying, then you keep your rotation as is, with Santiago starting in AAA (unless Axelrod falters or there are injuries), and have Santiago just keeping piliing on innings in Charlotte. If you are selling, then you can trade a bunch of guys and Santiago can be in the Chicago rotation. Either way, he's getting the innings he needs to be a full time starter in 2014.

 

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 22, 2013 -> 08:17 AM)
I get why traditionally 4 lefties in a rotation might be seen as a problem, but really, these guys wouldn't be in the big leagues if they couldn't get righties out and their stuff is quite different one from the other.

 

I agree. It's not like we talking about 4 Donnie Veals. I'm sure teams have added more RHB to their lineup when facing these starters, yet they still get the job done.

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You cannot do it for very long, especially if the non-Crain and non-Reed bullpen options fail to step it up, but I wouldn't mind seeing a series of skipped starts for the guys that went well over their prior innings last season. I suspect this is what they are doing with Sale, and I would prefer to see the Sox buy some time to find out if Danks can be effective.

 

The other issue not discussed is if the Sox are deliberately handling Santiago this way, not because they 'hate him,' but because they are trying to develop him. To me, it's clear that Santiago's stuff is better than Axe's, but I'm not sure he's a better pitcher yet. In either case, Santiago needs to keep getting enough innings this season to be a full-time starter next season.

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QUOTE (Disco72 @ May 22, 2013 -> 07:50 AM)
You cannot do it for very long, especially if the non-Crain and non-Reed bullpen options fail to step it up, but I wouldn't mind seeing a series of skipped starts for the guys that went well over their prior innings last season. I suspect this is what they are doing with Sale, and I would prefer to see the Sox buy some time to find out if Danks can be effective.

 

The other issue not discussed is if the Sox are deliberately handling Santiago this way, not because they 'hate him,' but because they are trying to develop him. To me, it's clear that Santiago's stuff is better than Axe's, but I'm not sure he's a better pitcher yet. In either case, Santiago needs to keep getting enough innings this season to be a full-time starter next season.

 

 

Let's not forget another elephant in the room.

 

John Danks, other than 2008, has never been known for being particularly efficient or having low pitch counts.

 

Take away his good stuff, he doesn't have many "swing and miss" pitches. It's like the rap last year from scouts against Quintana...where they felt he would struggle the most, not having a dominating strikeout pitch.

 

 

So you have an ouchy Sale again, Peavy, who you wonder how long he can continue to be the workhorse after fading down the stretch in 2012, Quintana/Danks/Santiago/Danks all with major question marks about how often they can give you much more than 5+ innings.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't experiment with the six man rotation again...before they send Santiago down to start in AAA and leave Axelrod up.

 

 

 

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Even including his s***ty rookie year, John Danks has averaged 6 innings a start, and once he figured it out, he averaged 6.1 to 6.2 innings a start. Danks pitches deeper into games than people realize.

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And that was the John Danks who threw 89-93/94 MPH with his fastball and had a 10 MPH differential on his FB/change.

 

 

 

Hector Santiago last July....three appearances with between 45-57 pitches thrown

Hector Santiago last August....four total appearances for the entire month, two of them for 73 and 76 pitches

 

Hector Santiago last September/Oct...in his four starts

 

7 IP=108 pitches

5 IP=91 pitches

4 IP=93 pitches

3 1/3=78 pitches

 

I don't think it's fair to say that Santiago is less likely than Axelrod or post-injury Danks to go at least 6 innings on average unless he has another month or two of starting under his belt.

 

As it seems like there was a progression of building up his stamina after wasting away on the bench for almost all of 3 months last year (when he could have been starting for Charlotte)...

 

 

Edited by caulfield12

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Peavy (2013) vs righties: .607 OPS

vs lefties: .695 OPS

 

Danks vs righties: .726 OPS

vs lefties: .740 OPS

 

Q vs righties: .742 OPS

vs lefties: .688 OPS

 

Sale vs righties: .660 OPS

vs lefties: .546 OPS

 

Santiago (2013) vs righties: .722 OPS

vs lefties: .755 OPS

 

Axelrod vs righties: .764 OPS

vs lefties .754 OPS

 

Career numbers unless noted. Took Peavy's 2013 because I didn't want pre-injury numbers. Took Hector's 2013 because platoon splits as a relief pitcher are very misleading.

 

I think this righty/lefty discussion is silly.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 22, 2013 -> 10:05 AM)
Let's not forget another elephant in the room.

 

John Danks, other than 2008, has never been known for being particularly efficient or having low pitch counts.

 

Take away his good stuff, he doesn't have many "swing and miss" pitches. It's like the rap last year from scouts against Quintana...where they felt he would struggle the most, not having a dominating strikeout pitch.

 

 

So you have an ouchy Sale again, Peavy, who you wonder how long he can continue to be the workhorse after fading down the stretch in 2012, Quintana/Danks/Santiago/Danks all with major question marks about how often they can give you much more than 5+ innings.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't experiment with the six man rotation again...before they send Santiago down to start in AAA and leave Axelrod up.

The bolded... what does that even mean? How many pitchers have MANY swing and miss pitches, taking away their "good stuff"?

 

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