2014 Draft class

[Y2Jimmy0]

Now we just pray that Houston or Miami loves Tyler Kolek. Or at least that's what I'm doing.

 

On a personal note, I feel absolutely horrible for Jeff Hoffman. I'll be rooting for him wherever he ends up given that it's not the Cubs/Yankees/Red Sox.

 

 

Washington at #18 seems like a possible landing spot. However, If I were Toronto, with 2 1st rounders, I'd definitely use one of them on Hoffman.

 

It's hard to know what to feel. If Rodon wants #1 money then I hope the Sox get Kolek at #3. If Rodon will sign for near the slotted amount, I want Rodon at #3. The problem is if Kolek and Aiken go #1 and #2 and Rodon wants #1 money. Then the White Sox have to take a position player or reach for the next pitcher that they like.

[royoung]

Once the pick is made none of that matters. It's either the money on the table or back to school. And just to say it again...if he wants top of the draft money, every pick he falls is another $1 million less he could get.

 

You are right but will the Sox roll the dice knowing there is a possibility we don't sign him? And I bet the Cubs would go over slot to get a deal done with him. Boras knows he wouldn't fall any further than the very next pick past us.

[GGajewski18]

Give me Kolek, Aiken, Rodon in that order.

[Y2Jimmy0]

What he means is now Boras can advertise Rodon as far and away the best college pitcher available. He can let it be known he isn't cutting any deals, if Houston and Miami pass on Rodon and Boras sees we have a choice of Rodon or somebody like Beede or Nola, he will demand more in negotiations because Rodon is clearly a better prospect than what is available at the next pick.

 

 

Boras can advertise however he wants but the new system takes the leverage away. He will get close the slotted amount from a team or be forced to go back to school. There's no magic money that these teams can just come up with for him.

[Balta1701]

You are right but will the Sox roll the dice knowing there is a possibility we don't sign him? And I bet the Cubs would go over slot to get a deal done with him. Boras knows he wouldn't fall any further than the very next pick past us.

They can't.

 

Their entire draft budget is literally $8 million dollars. That's comparable to the #1 pick slot. They would literally have to cost themselves draft picks next year or sign all of their next 9 picks to $100k contracts. Or more likely both.

 

The dropoff in each pick/slot is enormous, that's the thing that people need to keep remembering.

[southsider2k5]

They can't.

 

Their entire draft budget is literally $8 million dollars. That's comparable to the #1 pick slot. They would literally have to cost themselves draft picks next year or sign all of their next 9 picks to $100k contracts. Or more likely both.

 

The dropoff in each pick/slot is enormous, that's the thing that people need to keep remembering.

 

And if they go more than 5%, or say $400k over that number, they start giving up draft picks, which is NOT in their plans at all.

[Balta1701]

And if they go more than 5%, or say $400k over that number, they start giving up draft picks, which is NOT in their plans at all.

Rodon is not worth the Cubs next 9 draft picks, and he's not worth their top draft picks next year.

 

Hell, I'd be happy if the Cubs did that. That's insane.

[southsider2k5]

Rodon is not worth the Cubs next 9 draft picks, and he's not worth their top draft picks next year.

 

Hell, I'd be happy if the Cubs did that. That's insane.

 

Also FWIW, the Cubs total pool is $8,352,200. The #1 pick slot is $7,922,100 The Cubs slot value for the #4 pick is $4,621,200, or $1.1 million less than the Sox slot value at #3, and $2.2 million less than the #2 slot value.

 

Top picks

Round Pick # Team Allotment

1 1 Houston Astros $7,922,100

1 2 Miami Marlins $6,821,800

1 3 Chicago White Sox $5,721,500

1 4 Chicago Cubs $4,621,200

[Y2Jimmy0]

You are right but will the Sox roll the dice knowing there is a possibility we don't sign him? And I bet the Cubs would go over slot to get a deal done with him. Boras knows he wouldn't fall any further than the very next pick past us.

 

 

Cubs can't really either though.

 

Here are the slot values for 1st rounders and the overall bonus pool amount.

 

1. Houston: $13,362,200. #1 pick value $7,922,100.

2. Miami: $14, 199,300 #2 pick value $6, 821, 800

3. White Sox: $9,509,700 #3 pick value $5,721,500

4. Cubs $8,352,200 #4 pick value: $4, 621, 200

 

 

Houston can pay Rodon close to $8 million. The Marlins actually could overpay as well. We have no evidence of this but if Rodon wants something above $7 million, the White Sox and Cubs can't swing that. If it's $6 million the White Sox probably could. Nobody has really talked about Miami being linked to Rodon but they could definitely afford to go over.

[royoung]

They can't.

 

Their entire draft budget is literally $8 million dollars. That's comparable to the #1 pick slot. They would literally have to cost themselves draft picks next year or sign all of their next 9 picks to $100k contracts. Or more likely both.

 

The dropoff in each pick/slot is enormous, that's the thing that people need to keep remembering.

 

The Cubs draft budget is 8.35 M roughly, the slot value for our pick is 5.7 M. They can, but it would obviously be ill advised unless they wanted to punt the rest of their draft.

 

We have a 9.5 M budget, I am not saying Rodon demands 1-1 money, but we will have to pay him more now than if Hoffman was healthy.

[Ozzie Ball]

Washington at #18 seems like a possible landing spot. However, If I were Toronto, with 2 1st rounders, I'd definitely use one of them on Hoffman.

 

It's hard to know what to feel. If Rodon wants #1 money then I hope the Sox get Kolek at #3. If Rodon will sign for near the slotted amount, I want Rodon at #3. The problem is if Kolek and Aiken go #1 and #2 and Rodon wants #1 money. Then the White Sox have to take a position player or reach for the next pitcher that they like.

The Nats are a good shout if he's falls to them. Giolito was a similar situation a few years ago and that's working out really well for them so far, though I think Giolito's talent level has always been a fair bit above Hoffman's.

[ILMOU]

He doesn't have any leverage. He signs at slot or slightly over or he goes back to NC State. That's the deal.

You're likely correct - just now there's a bigger dropoff between 3 and 4.

[harfman77]

I am not sure that this takes Hoffman out of consideration for the Sox at three, it actually probably helps them. If they can get Hoffman, the guy they have seemed to really like, to sign for slot value in the 5-10 range, thats $2-$3M dollars more they can spread out through the rest of the draft. Thats a lot of extra money to sign a guy or three that slip because of signability concerns. Its a really ballsy move, I doubt they will do it, but it is a way to add some extra talent while getting the guy that you wanted.

 

I am pretty sold on Aiken and will be disappointed if the Sox pass on him.

[Eminor3rd]

WAY too much risk at #3 guys. Tommy John is NOT an automatic 100% recovery like a lot of people think, and having it this early increases the chance of a second one in his 20's. The track record for a second TJ comeback is not good at all.

 

Even if you signed him way underslot, you're saving money for the 44th pick. No one available at 44 is worth punting on a healthy #3.

[harfman77]

WAY too much risk at #3 guys. Tommy John is NOT an automatic 100% recovery like a lot of people think, and having it this early increases the chance of a second one in his 20's. The track record for a second TJ comeback is not good at all.

 

Even if you signed him way underslot, you're saving money for the 44th pick. No one available at 44 is worth punting on a healthy #3.

 

It depends who their options are at #3. If they refuse to take a HS pitcher, I am not sure that anyone in that area is any less of a risk than an injured Hoffman. There are plenty of guys with mid-first round talent that could slide to 44, where the Sox could pay them top 10 money to skip college and could still pick a few spots to pull a Michealewski (sp?) from last season. If the HS guys are off the table and Rodon is gone, I would rather have an injured Hoffman than a healthy Beede.

[Ozzie Ball]

Quick take from Ben Badler:

 

Twins twerp (Western ND): Jeff hoffman to have tj surgery. Does he sit out a season untill next draft or fall to the nationals like gioloto this draft?

 

 

Ben Badler: I would bet he still gets paid this year. If I were him though, given that he's going to have the surgery anyway, I would do something completely outside the box and consider becoming a resident of a foreign country like Haiti, sit out one year, then try to sign as an international free agent, where he probably could get more money even subject to the pools, which teams would certainly go past for a player of his caliber. I'm not sure MLB would allow it, but this might be the perfect time for someone daring and enterprising enough to try it. More realistically, yeah, he probably slips in the draft but still gets paid.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1399426035

[Quin]

If you take a pitcher with TJ surgery over one of the big three pitchers, you're insane.

[Greyone]

This also has to scare Rodon a little as well right, no way he can go back to college and risk a lot of money.

[Eminor3rd]

It depends who their options are at #3. If they refuse to take a HS pitcher, I am not sure that anyone in that area is any less of a risk than an injured Hoffman. There are plenty of guys with mid-first round talent that could slide to 44, where the Sox could pay them top 10 money to skip college and could still pick a few spots to pull a Michealewski (sp?) from last season. If the HS guys are off the table and Rodon is gone, I would rather have an injured Hoffman than a healthy Beede.

 

Why would they do that? I get they may have a "preference" for college arms, but when the talent gap is so huge, it would be insane to ignore Kolek/Aiken in favor of TJ Hoffman or Nola or whatever.

[harfman77]

Why would they do that? I get they may have a "preference" for college arms, but when the talent gap is so huge, it would be insane to ignore Kolek/Aiken in favor of TJ Hoffman or Nola or whatever.

 

Agree, but I don't know their thinking. It seems like the org has an aversion to selecting HS pitching in the first round, I dont know if that was KW thing, a budget thing, or what. The Sox have passed on better players many times in the past. As I said I hope that they end up with Aiken, Rodon would be a tremendous get as well. I dont like Kolek as much as most do and would probably prefer one of the position players (Jackson or Gordon) to him.

[harfman77]

This also has to scare Rodon a little as well right, no way he can go back to college and risk a lot of money.

 

He's probably not far in line behind Hoffman in line to take his turn at TJ given the way he has been used this season.

[southsider2k5]

He's probably not far in line behind Hoffman in line to take his turn at TJ given the way he has been used this season.

 

Aaron Fitt ‏@aaronfitt 3h

 

Jeff Hoffman pitch counts by start: 87, 107, 109, 80, 103, 98, 90, 116, 105, 117. Restrained use, every 7 days. Still got hurt. Who knows?

[Greyone]

He's probably not far in line behind Hoffman in line to take his turn at TJ given the way he has been used this season.

 

Yeah, I don't follow college sports that much, only follow this thread cause of the 3rd pick for the Sox.

 

I don't think he has much wiggle room then, really can't ask for stupid money at the 3rd pick. Get what is yours before something happens is how I'd look at it, or roll the dice once again and hope all works out.

[caulfield12]

With the way the Marlins are playing now, their increased attendance and interest...I would actually be pretty surprised if they didn't take Rodon.

 

On the other hand, they've had great success with Jose Fernandez and haven't been afraid to take high schoolers.

 

If Rodon's gone, that makes it a LOT more interesting amongst Aiken/Kolek, Jackson, Gordon and then some of the top collegiate pitchers remaining. That's kind of the nightmare scenario right now.

 

If that happened, you'd have to believe the Astros would take the local product Kolek and we could then select Aiken.

Edited May 8, 2014 by caulfield12

[Bruce_Blixton]

If Rodon's gone, that makes it a LOT more interesting amongst Aiken/Kolek, Jackson, Gordon and then some of the top collegiate pitchers remaining. That's kind of the nightmare scenario right now.

 

If that happened, you'd have to believe the Astros would take the local product Kolek and we could then select Aiken.

 

I wouldn't call that a nightmare scenario, I think if we had to choose between Aiken/Kolek & Jackson at #3 we'd still be getting a player that has a high probability of being a major leaguer. If Rodon's off the board when the Sox are picking I'll be very upset if they choose a college player.