Rosenthal: Sox should market Sale

[Eminor3rd]

I think we have different meanings for All-Star.

 

Does one of you have a definition other than "makes the All-Star team at some point?"

[caulfield12]

I still disagree with the premise. Our record this year is a testament to what happens when you have good pitching and no offense. Yes, the bad defense is an additional factor, but the majority of our games have still been very low scoring games -- you hear them quote all the time the high percentage of games decided by less than 3 runs.

 

As for a hot hitter versus a hot pitcher: a 3.50 ERA is good, a 4.50 ERA is mediocre. That's a difference of 1 run per nine innings, and it includes the contributions of the defense (in terms of range, not errors). A single hot hitter can always hit at least solo homerun, which is a difference of one run over nine innings. One hot pitcher and some good defense CAN shut down the opposition -- once in five games. Unless you're Chris Sale, and you have a below .500 record despite a sub-3 ERA.

 

Outscoring your opponent has equal parts to do with adding and preventing runs, the ratio is 1:1.

 

 

If the yahoo contributor network can dream up this trade, Kuroda and Robertson (who they don't even really need at the moment)....we should get an entire minor league system for Sale/Peavy/Crain/Rios/Ramirez/Dunn/Thornton.

 

But the big prize for the Yankees could be Joc Pederson. I wouldn't deal Pederson straight-up for Kuroda, but perhaps a package of Kuroda and, say, David Robertson for Pederson and left-hander Chris Reed could be a deal that helps both teams. To sweeten the deal, the Dodgers could add one of two flamethrowing relievers in Chris Withrow or Jose Dominguez. Both hold similar value and would provide New York with a replacement of sorts for Robertson. I'd even be OK with the Dodgers throwing in a fourth prospect if that's what it took to get the deal done. Robertson has one more year of arbitration remaining, so the Dodgers would have to give enough to convince the Yankees to move the powerful reliever.

 

The Yankees get three players who are Major League-ready or extremely close to ML-ready. That's a valuable commodity these days. They'd also be getting a decent low-level prospect they could develop. Yes, they'd be giving up a 28-year-old who's supposed to be the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera (with only one more year of arbitration eligibility, to boot), but nabbing three of the Dodgers' Top 15 prospects for a rental in Kuroda and a quality reliever in Robertson would be a nice get for the Yanks (LOL).

 

The Dodgers get stability in the rotation and a much-needed bullpen arm while giving the Yankees salary relief (as silly as that sound) so they can focus on retaining Cano following the season.

 

Admittedly, this trade won't happen. The New York media would tear general manager Brian Cashman apart if such a move were made. But if the Yankees want to get back to an elite team, a move like this would be the first step. Plus, they'd help the Dodgers in the process (which is obviously their priority).

Edited July 12, 2013 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Lol, the internet. Anyone can say anything and make it look official.

[iamshack]

Does one of you have a definition other than "makes the All-Star team at some point?"

I'm thinking its very possible there could be 3 all-stars in the farm systems of Arizona, St Louis, Texas, Pittsburgh, etc.

 

Not saying that kind of deal is commonplace, but neither is trading someone like Sale.

[Chicago White Sox]

There's no point in talking about a possible Chris Sale trade because it will never happen, at least not anytime soon. No intelligent GM is going to give up the theoretical value it would take to get him right now. Think the original Dan Haren trade to the Diamondbacks and then add on top of it. That's the type of package it would take Rick Hahn to gamble all the surplus value Sale will likely provide (if healthy) on a group of prospects.

 

Also, let's remember that these GMs risk their careers when they make moves of this magnitude. Imagine if Hahn traded Sale and for a bunch of prospects and they all busted. He'd have a hard time convincing another owner to give him a job. That's why you don't see guys with Sale's talent who are locked up to well-below market, long-term deals get moved too often. The risk of the trade backfiring is simply not worth the potential payoff if all goes right.

[Jake]

We talk about prospects as if they are all created equal. Some prospects have an extremely low probability of busting (say, lower than the likelihood of Sale's arm exploding) while others are extremely high. You can't just say "prospects" and have an understanding of the risk. Good talent evaluators will do a good job of assessing a particular player's risk.

[Marty34]

Does one of you have a definition other than "makes the All-Star team at some point?"

 

Like Steve Swisher? A modern-day version would not be a worthy piece of a package for Sale despite the lofty status of All-Star.

[Jake]

Decide what WAR you are likely to get from Chris Sale over the next 5-7 seasons. Decide what chance the package in return matches or exceeds that WAR. If you get a 3 WAR/year guy, two 2 WAR/year guys, you've already won in grand fashion. But can you do that?

[Chicago White Sox]

Decide what WAR you are likely to get from Chris Sale over the next 5-7 seasons. Decide what chance the package in return matches or exceeds that WAR. If you get a 3 WAR/year guy, two 2 WAR/year guys, you've already won in grand fashion. But can you do that?

You're not accounting for positional scarcity. There are only 25 roster spots and not many players can get you 6 or 7 WAR in a given year. Having a guy like that, signed to a below market contract no less, makes building a legit World Series contender that much easier.

[Jake]

You're not accounting for positional scarcity. There are only 25 roster spots and not many players can get you 6 or 7 WAR in a given year. Having a guy like that, signed to a below market contract no less, makes building a legit World Series contender that much easier.

 

This is a good point - worth pointing out that Chris had a 4.8 WAR last season. He is on track for a bit higher than that this year. How much more do these players need to produce to make us feel better about position scarcity? In a situation when there is (presently) a scarcity of WAR, do we care so much about position scarcity or is that too short-sighted?

[iamshack]

This is a good point - worth pointing out that Chris had a 4.8 WAR last season. He is on track for a bit higher than that this year. How much more do these players need to produce to make us feel better about position scarcity? In a situation when there is (presently) a scarcity of WAR, do we care so much about position scarcity or is that too short-sighted?

Obviously it depends on your starting point.

 

Right now, we've got so many holes, the odds are we're not going to be acquiring or developing a team full of 5-war players simultaneously.

 

If we were looking for something to get us over the top, then yes, trading Sale for several lesser parts makes no sense. But when you need sooo many pieces, you've got to spend the resources you have to improve, or else you're looking at competing in a window where having Sale around still is unlikely.

 

Obviously the key is potential. You need a package where at least one or two of the prospects is as high as Sale himself.

[Marty34]

If we were looking for something to get us over the top, then yes, trading Sale for several lesser parts makes no sense. But when you need sooo many pieces, you've got to spend the resources you have to improve, or else you're looking at competing in a window where having Sale around still is unlikely.

 

Sale is 24 though. I don't see the rebuilding taking 5 years unless Santiago and Quintana aren't the SP's they have shown they are/can be. In other words, the heaviest of lifting in this rebuild might already be done with that rotation top 3.

[iamshack]

Sale is 24 though. I don't see the rebuilding taking 5 years unless Santiago and Quintana aren't the SP's they have shown they are/can be. In other words, the heaviest of lifting in this rebuild might already be done with that rotation top 3.

I'm not seeing the consistency out of Santiago that I would like to, but I haven't been watching closely either.

 

Has he improved?

[Quin]

Sale is 24 though. I don't see the rebuilding taking 5 years unless Santiago and Quintana aren't the SP's they have shown they are/can be. In other words, the heaviest of lifting in this rebuild might already be done with that rotation top 3.

 

Marty being optimistic and on the same side of arguments with me is weird.

 

But I'm ok with it.

[GGajewski18]

I'm not seeing the consistency out of Santiago that I would like to, but I haven't been watching closely either.

 

Has he improved?

 

In my opinion he has. He does walk some guys, he gets into jams, but he battles his way through them. I think he has the will to win because he just battles every time he's out there. With Sale, Santiago and Quintana. This could be a very special group in a couple years.

[Quin]

In my opinion he has. He does walk some guys, he gets into jams, but he battles his way through them. I think he has the will to win because he just battles every time he's out there. With Sale, Santiago and Quintana. This could be a very special group in a couple years.

 

#TWTW

[Marty34]

I'm not seeing the consistency out of Santiago that I would like to, but I haven't been watching closely either.

 

Has he improved?

 

I think Santiago has improved to the point where at the very least he can be considered an intriguing SP prospect. The screwball is a difficult pitch to control so he probably is going to be a guy who throws a lot of pitches which makes me worry most about his durability, but he has the stuff for top of the rotation.

[GGajewski18]

I think Santiago has improved to the point where at the very least he can be considered an intriguing SP prospect. The screwball is a difficult pitch to control so he probably is going to be a guy who throws a lot of pitches which makes me worry most about his durability, but he has the stuff for top of the rotation.

 

I agree. The kid has tons of potential.

[Dick Allen]

I still disagree with the premise. Our record this year is a testament to what happens when you have good pitching and no offense. Yes, the bad defense is an additional factor, but the majority of our games have still been very low scoring games -- you hear them quote all the time the high percentage of games decided by less than 3 runs.

 

As for a hot hitter versus a hot pitcher: a 3.50 ERA is good, a 4.50 ERA is mediocre. That's a difference of 1 run per nine innings, and it includes the contributions of the defense (in terms of range, not errors). A single hot hitter can always hit at least solo homerun, which is a difference of one run over nine innings. One hot pitcher and some good defense CAN shut down the opposition -- once in five games. Unless you're Chris Sale, and you have a below .500 record despite a sub-3 ERA.

 

Outscoring your opponent has equal parts to do with adding and preventing runs, the ratio is 1:1.

The defense has been a huge factor, as has injury. While I think the White Sox have good pitching, the fact is there are 8 teams in the AL that have allowed fewer runs this year and 6 that have allowed more. No one has scored fewer. Some of it is defense and some of it is injury. The Sox have had to have some really mediocre at best guys try to get some outs this year.

Edited July 13, 2013 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

The defense has been a huge factor, as has injury. While I think the White Sox have good pitching, the fact is there are 8 teams in the AL that have allowed fewer runs this year and 6 that have allowed more. No one has scored fewer. Some of it is defense and some of it is injury. The Sox have had to have some really mediocre at best guys try to get some outs this year.

 

 

Troncoso, Axelrod and Omogrosso all say hello, along with Heath.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Santiago is about the easiest athlete to root for that you'll come across. Near Jim Thome level.

[fathom]

Santiago is about the easiest athlete to root for that you'll come across. Near Jim Thome level.

 

+1

[Heads22]

+1

 

Indeed, extremely easy to pull for.

 

Back to the Sale, though, I totally agree with you. I think part of the reason we have moved guys in the past has been injury risk - Santos perhaps being the most recent example. I don't want to move Sale. I don't think we move Sale. But I think injury concern is the only reason you would at this point.