Hahn's next move?

[hi8is]

Say hello to drafting a starter at number three in this years draft.

[Balta1701]

If they stand pat with this rotation big trouble ahead.

And this is bad why?

[Marty34]

And this is bad why?

 

It will cost them more in terms of money or talent the longer they wait to address it.

[BlackSox13]

Shoulder. Lost a ton of velocity and overall quality of his pitches

 

OK, thanks. I would steer clear of Hansen then, it reminds of Sirotka with his torn labrum after he was traded to Toronto. Better off with what we have.

Say hello to drafting a starter at number three in this years draft.

I would say this is the best bet. Sounds like the Sox aren't going after FA starting pitching and they do a good job of drafting and developing young pitching talent so it makes the most sense.

[Balta1701]

It will cost them more in terms of money or talent the longer they wait to address it.

Why?

[bmags]

It will cost them more in terms of money or talent the longer they wait to address it.

 

But if we aren't going to make the playoffs next year, why artificially inflate several victories and drop team out of lower draft spot? That would get us cheaper talent in the long run, and would allow us to wait even longer.

[hi8is]

I would say this is the best bet. Sounds like the Sox aren't going after FA starting pitching and they do a good job of drafting and developing young pitching talent so it makes the most sense.

Not to mention that whole Kershaw and Tanaka big-ass contract fest we just witnessed. Pitching is at a premium like never before and we're entering into a new era of the dead ball IMO. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Our ability to nab arms and meld them into useful contributors will allow us to right this ship before many other rebuilding clubs.

[Marty34]

But if we aren't going to make the playoffs next year, why artificially inflate several victories and drop team out of lower draft spot? That would get us cheaper talent in the long run, and would allow us to wait even longer.

 

The core of this team is at least major league ready. If drafting is being counted on to build this team then Sale should have been put on the trade market.

[Chicago White Sox]

And this is bad why?

Marty has a legitimate point here. Our starting pitching depth is incredibly overrated, and don't take this the wrong way, but you're probably the biggest culprit of hyping it up. Sale & Quintana are legit, Johnson is extremely promising, but after that we have a bunch of question marks. I actually think Danks will rebound and if he does we'll have a damn good 1-4, but I'm much less confident in Paulino, Rienzo, or Surkamp being more than inning-eaters. After them, we have Chris Beck and a bunch of wild card prospects. Honestly, the only other prospect in the system with front of the rotation potential is Tyler Danish and while he may move fast, it would be foolish to expect it.

 

The point is we're one injury away from our rotation being in trouble. On top of that, we could really use a #2 starter to fit between Sale & Quintana if we're looking for a championship caliber rotation. Maybe Beck breaks out this year or Danish goes Dan Hudson and ends up in AA by the end of the season, but there's a reason Hahn went after Tanaka so aggressively. We need that #2 starter and I'll be surprised if they don't continue committing all their available resources to finding one, including taking Hoffman in the draft if available.

[Balta1701]

The core of this team is at least major league ready. If drafting is being counted on to build this team then Sale should have been put on the trade market.

Which guys are you counting as major-league ready? Abreu? Eaton? Viciedo? Davidson? Webb? Semien? Petricka? Phegley? Flowers? Neito?

 

We could legitimately have >50% of our starting lineup covered by rookies this season. 2/3 if you throw in the catcher's position.

[Balta1701]

Marty has a legitimate point here. Our starting pitching depth is incredibly overrated, and don't take this the wrong way, but you're probably the biggest culprit of hyping it up. Sale & Quintana are legit, Johnson is extremely promising, but after that we have a bunch of question marks. I actually think Danks will rebound and if he does we'll have a damn good 1-4, but I'm much less confident in Paulino, Rienzo, or Surkamp being more than inning-eaters. After them, we have Chris Beck and a bunch of wild card prospects. Honestly, the only other prospect in the system with front of the rotation potential is Tyler Danish and while he may move fast, it would be foolish to expect it.

 

The point is we're one injury away from our rotation being in trouble. On top of that, we could really use a #2 starter to fit between Sale & Quintana if we're looking for a championship caliber rotation. Maybe Beck breaks out this year or Danish goes Dan Hudson and ends up in AA by the end of the season, but there's a reason Hahn went after Tanaka so aggressively. We need that #2 starter and I'll be surprised if they don't continue committing all their available resources to finding one, including taking Hoffman in the draft if available.

That is all 100% fine. I'm completely ok with that. For this season.

 

If Paulino, Rienzo, and Surkamp are all terrible and put up ERA's in the 5's, great, what exactly is the harm? We see if Beck can handle it in AA, we see what we get in the draft this year, and we go into next offseason knowing that rotation depth is one of our needs.

 

If everything goes wrong...I don't care, because we're running a roster out there that on paper is not built to be a competitive team this year. But we're still sitting there holding 3-4 lottery tickets as it is for that 5th starter spot, if 1 of them is a winner then we suddenly have a glut of starting pitching again.

[Marty34]

Which guys are you counting as major-league ready? Abreu? Eaton? Viciedo? Davidson? Webb? Semien? Petricka? Phegley? Flowers? Neito?

 

We could legitimately have >50% of our starting lineup covered by rookies this season. 2/3 if you throw in the catcher's position.

 

Right.

[Vance Law]

I would still love to see Rick move Dunn but we all know that is unlikely. Does anyone see the Sox releasing Dunn in June if the Sox are playing bad and he starts off bad for the first 2 months

 

No. He will be traded by the deadline unless (miraculously) the Sox are somehow in contention. Power is an increasingly rare commodity. That's why people like Mark Reynolds keep getting chances. Adam Dunn has the 4th most home runs in baseball over the last 2 seasons. Multiple teams will be in need of that and we'll get, at very least, some of his salary taken off our hands.

 

[Vance Law]

He did very well in AAA last year and really held his own in MLB. The only good reason for putting Davidson in AAA is the presence of Keppinger and Gillaspie. IMO, those two don't make a compelling reason to keep our best MLB ready prospect in the minors

 

Gillaspie/Keppinger platoon will put up better numbers than Davidson would in 2014 and we're already paying them. Let's see if Davidson can become a better fielder and at least put up some Phegley numbers in AAA. Some Josh Fields numbers. (*these are terrible hitters who nonetheless displayed more success in AAA than Davison has)

[Vance Law]

If they stand pat with this rotation big trouble ahead.

 

How is it worse than last year? Axelrod started 20 games last year and now he's like 8th on the depth chart.

[Jake]

Gillaspie/Keppinger platoon will put up better numbers than Davidson would in 2014 and we're already paying them. Let's see if Davidson can become a better fielder and at least put up some Phegley numbers in AAA. Some Josh Fields numbers. (*these are terrible hitters who nonetheless displayed more success in AAA than Davison has)

 

The dude batted .280 with a .350 OBP along with 17 HR in 115 games. He then went to MLB and posted an almost .800 OPS over 31 G. I don't want him to put up "Phegley numbers" anywhere, because Phegley numbers involve a .522 OPS and the lowest wRC+/OPS+ in baseball among everyone who batted as many times as he did and a career full of sub-.700 OPS, powerless seasons in the minors.

 

Davidson has hit over 20 HR in every full pro season he has played. He hit very well in AAA. He has hit very well at every level he has played. He went on to have very serviceable numbers in MLB in limited time. Give me him over that lot -- we should absolutely be expecting him to outproduce a Gillaspie and Keppinger platoon the very moment he steps foot on the Spring Training diamond.

[Jake]

We have a whole bunch of guys ready or almost ready that could plausibly become very valuable starters. There is nothing more valuable than good starting pitchers on their rookie deals. There is nothing riskier than veteran pitchers on market priced FA deals. Given all the other rolls of the dice we're taking in '14, let's go ahead and figure out which of these guys will be valuable instead of forcing a veteran FA pitcher into the mix to become an immediate time bomb with a high salary and aging arm

[BlackSox13]

Not to mention that whole Kershaw and Tanaka big-ass contract fest we just witnessed. Pitching is at a premium like never before and we're entering into a new era of the dead ball IMO. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Our ability to nab arms and meld them into useful contributors will allow us to right this ship before many other rebuilding clubs.

Oh man you're not kidding. Can you imagine how much Sale's extension would cost now? Yikes! Smart move by Hahn.

 

What you're describing with pitching is what the Cards have been doing in their system with Lynn, Wacha, Miller and Martinez. This is a big reason why the Cards have sustained success year in and year out and love that the Sox are trying to do the same. You can extend the guys that are truly special like Sale and trade they others to fill holes before they become too costly , kind of like Beane does. Then call up from your deep farm to fill the pitching hole that was created from the trade. Helps keep the payroll from blowing up by keeping young, hungry talent in the mix.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Unless Davidson falls flat on his face this spring, he's starting.

[Balta1701]

Unless Davidson falls flat on his face this spring, he's starting.

As of right now he doesn't have a spot on the big league roster.

[caulfield12]

Save money buy buying a pitcher in this year's market. The big spenders are likely out.

 

 

Not really. There's still a number of teams all circling around Garza, Santana and Jimenez.

 

None of those guys are going to get "bargain" contracts.

 

For the amount of money the Indians spent on Jimenez, how much talent they gave up from their minor league system....they finally got one decent season out of him in 2013 (although nothing like in his Rockies heydey).

 

Was it really worth it for one post-season game?

 

 

Unless the White Sox signed Tanaka, which would have been a HUGE gamble and could easily have backfired, signing another starter didn't make sense.

 

We didn't need any more more middle of the rotation guys to increase our total wins from 74-80 to the lower 80's range. It's not going to make any difference, and the odds are they could find a better pitcher in the 2015 draft at a higher slot than the value of winning 78 games instead of 75 (and the related effect that would have on overall revenues.)

[Marty34]

How is it worse than last year? Axelrod started 20 games last year and now he's like 8th on the depth chart.

 

No Peavy or Santiago.

[caulfield12]

How is it worse than last year? Axelrod started 20 games last year and now he's like 8th on the depth chart.

 

 

Because somehow last season's team with Zach Greinke added would have been a playoff contender.

 

It's even more surprising that so many were willing to gamble on Tanaka, a completely unproven commodity. Those huge deals for pitchers almost never work out, we've seen it time and time again.

 

For Japanese pitchers, Darvish and Kuroda are the only ones who have come close to earning their money. And Iwakuma with the Mariners, but give the league one year to make some adjustments.

 

 

I can only imagine if Tanaka is a flop how many years there would be crying and complaining that the team was financially hamstrung...the same refrain from the last couple of seasons with Dunn, Danks, Keppinger, etc.

 

In the end, the White Sox were at least one full season away from being confident that adding Tanaka was the correct move vis a vis their ability to compete and the number of holes in the starting line-up.

 

 

 

 

[hi8is]

No Peavy or Santiago.

I'm confident in this organization to furnish replacements for what was a mediocre season by Peavy and a year with Santiago that should not be a guaranteed improvement for the Halo's. They're both not guarantees to give much above replacement level.

[Quin]

I'm confident that EJ can match Hector and a healthy Danks can match Peavy.