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Expectations: Jose Abreu


Jose Abreu
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Jose Abreu ASGs  

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  1. 1. How many ASGs will Abreu be selected for in this contract?

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What numbers do you think Abreu will put up? It seems like when we signed him, many experts said he'll come right in rookie year and hit .280 with 35+ home runs. Now, however, those general expectations have changed to a 30 HR/ 85 RBI/ .225 AVG. In fact, I was in an MLB Trade Rumors chat with Steve Adams a few weeks ago, and he said he'd be surprised if Abreu hit over .245. Is this just a result of the hype dying down, or was Abreu really being that overrated when we signed him?

Edited by Jose Abreu
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Cespedes came over and hit .292/.861 OPS as a rookie. Struggled more last year but still hit .240 with his numbers really being knocked down by strikeouts. The consensus I saw was that Abreu had a much better approach and eye at the plate than Cespedes.

 

If he hits .240 and strikes out 130+ times, yeah I'm probably going to be disappointed.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:16 PM)
Cespedes came over and hit .292/.861 OPS as a rookie. Struggled more last year but still hit .240 with his numbers really being knocked down by strikeouts. The consensus I saw was that Abreu had a much better approach and eye at the plate than Cespedes.

 

If he hits .240 and strikes out 130+ times, yeah I'm probably going to be disappointed.

130+? I've seen several ESPN/MLBTR guys label him as a 200 K guy.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:12 PM)
What numbers do you think Abreu will put up? It seems like when we signed him, many experts said he'll come right in rookie year and hit .280 with 35+ home runs. Now, however, those general expectations have changed to a 30 HR/ 85 RBI/ .225 AVG. In fact, I was in an MLB Trade Rumors chat with Steve Adams a few weeks ago, and he said he'd be surprised if Abreu hit over .245. Is this just a result of the hype dying down, or was Abreu really being that overrated when we signed him?

I wonder how many times Steve Adams has seen him play. I bet less than 10 games.

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If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah.

 

If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type.

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QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 04:40 PM)
If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah.

 

If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type.

Awesome post, was thinking the same thing. That's why I pay no attentiin to the so called experts. Let it play out

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QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:40 PM)
If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah.

If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type.

 

Basically. He'd be an MVP candidate if he was signed by the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, etc.

 

I expect around .280/.350 and about 35 bombs.

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Expect a learning process, not numbers. Numbers won't even matter next year. He's going to have to adjust to a lot of different things & the measure of his future success & ability will be in monitoring his month-to-month progression and seeing how he reacts to poor stretches/slumps, the early season cold, schedule length, etc. The Sox aren't paying for 2014 performance nor are they paying for any kind of finished product.

 

The high K comments I am sure are all in relation to those "slide speed bat" comments when he was signed. I wouldn't worry about any of that. He's been worked out by multiple teams & the Sox think he's a pure hitter. You don't need otherwordly bat speed to hit for a high average.

Edited by The Ultimate Champion
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Abreu's worst strikeout year in Cuba was 20%, which is just a tick below MLB average. This was when he was 21 years old.

 

In the four years since, he has struck out at a 10.9% rate. I would expect it to go up some now that he won't be getting intentionally walked in 10% of his at-bats. Alexei's and Dayan's K and BB numbers are not much different in the MLB than they were in Cuba, FWIW

 

EDIT: Dunn has to strike out at about 29%-33% clip, depending on playing time, to strike out 200 times

Edited by Jake
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:50 PM)
Abreu's worst strikeout year in Cuba was 2%, which is just a tick below MLB average. This was when he was 21 years old.

In the four years since, he has struck out at a 10.9% rate. I would expect it to go up some now that he won't be getting intentionally walked in 10% of his at-bats. Alexei's and Dayan's K and BB numbers are not much different in the MLB than they were in Cuba, FWIW

 

EDIT: Dunn has to strike out at about 29%-33% clip, depending on playing time, to strike out 200 times

 

I'm guessing that's 20%?

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QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:56 PM)
I'll be upset if he approaches 200 k's. We already have Adam Dunn for that unfortunate feat. 400 k's for both combined is gross.

 

I think .260 with 20 HR. I think he starts slow at AAA or platoon at IB /DH in Majors. Then produces 2nd half of season.

 

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I think appropriate expectations for year 1 would be along the lines of

 

.260 - .270 AVE

20-25 HR

75-85 RBIs

 

I think we'll see a guy who will be crazy good at some points in the season and be super cold during other points. Be patient early. A little improvement in year 2 in each of those categories.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 01:12 PM)
What numbers do you think I will put up?

You, Mr. Abreu... Are a pure hitting beast. You're more than just a power guy. You'll hit at least .280 and will easily aproach 25 doubles and 25 bombs. I suspect however, that you'll far surpass those marks in what will be a fine rookie season.

 

:)

 

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QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 09:04 PM)
You, Mr. Abreu... Are a pure hitting beast. You're more than just a power guy. You'll hit at least .280 and will easily aproach 25 doubles and 25 bombs. I suspect however, that you'll far surpass those marks in what will be a fine rookie season.

 

:)

Thank you hi8is. Also, did you edit my quote?

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I'm going to say....

 

.270 AVG, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 3.2 WAR

 

And because every seems to care, I will say 165 Ks, which would put him somewhere around like 23-25% K-rate?

 

 

Just to put these predictions in to perspective, here is where those would rank last year among 1B.....

 

.270 AVG (13th)

28 HR (8th)

104 RBI (5th)

3.2 WAR (8th)

23-25% K rate (19th)

 

That would pretty much make him a fringe top-10 1B next year, and his best OFFENSIVE comparison would have been Prince Fielder. Now hopefully he plays better defense than Prince, so he will have a WAR higher than Prince's 2.2, and more like Eric Hosmer's 3.1.

 

I'd take that in a rookie season 8 days of the week.

Edited by Chilihead90
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