Mariners trade partners?

[caulfield12]

Where else is Johnson going to play?

 

 

I meant Franklin's value.

 

But you can same the exact same thing for Micah, especially if he has to play LF. There's no way he has the arm strength for CF, then we're back to the argument about not having enough power from our outfield.

 

In an ideal world, he could play all over the field like Chone Figgins, particularly 3B/2B/LF/CF, but Micah's never played 3B that I know of...and then you're replicating the same player as Marcus Semien, except for Marcus' ability to play SS at least adequately as a fill-in.

[witesoxfan]

That's the issue.

 

Seattle has never been 100% comfortable defensively with Franklin at SS. It's like Micah Johnson at 2B. If he has to play 2B, his value goes down considerably.

 

Otherwise, they wouldn't be playing Miller, because Franklin has a lot more upside offensively.

 

Uh, no, that's the oposite of the argument being made stating that of he has to move to the outfield, his value goes down considerably. His value is perfectly fine at 2B.

[TaylorStSox]

I'll be patient with Viciedo for a long time because his good tools are extreme. Even if he doesn't ever figure it out, he's still somewhat productive. He's definitely worth the wait, especially considering he's not being pushed.

 

I've given up on Beckham because his tools aren't in the same vicinity. His hit tool is negated by his ugly swing. His glove is negated by his range. Beckham no longer has a peak worth waiting on.

Edited July 2, 2014 by TaylorStSox

[caulfield12]

Uh, no, that's the oposite of the argument being made stating that of he has to move to the outfield, his value goes down considerably. His value is perfectly fine at 2B.

 

 

I meant Nick Franklin's value at 2B, it wasn't very clear I realize reading it over again.

[Feeky Magee]

I'll be patient with Viciedo for a long time because his good tools are extreme. Even if he doesn't ever figure it out, he's still somewhat productive. He's definitely worth the wait, especially considering he's not being pushed.

 

I've given up on Beckham because his tools aren't in the same vicinity. His hit tool is negated by his ugly swing. His glove is negated by his range. Beckham no longer has a peak worth waiting on.

Kinda the opposite. Beckham, even if he doesn't have it figured out, has the floor of being above replacement level. Viciedo has been below replacement level this season and last because if he's not raking, he's not valuable in the slightest.

[TaylorStSox]

Kinda the opposite. Beckham, even if he doesn't have it figured out, has the floor of being above replacement level. Viciedo has been below replacement level this season and last because if he's not raking, he's not valuable in the slightest.

Get out of here with your Bulls*** War garbage. Viciedo is a better player with more upside. I don't care what your garbage defensive stats say.

 

I'm fine with advanced stats for offense, but when it comes to defense, just stop.

Edited July 2, 2014 by TaylorStSox

[Feeky Magee]

Get out of here with your Bulls*** War garbage. Viciedo is a better player with more upside. I don't care what your garbage defensive stats say.

 

I'm fine with advanced stats for offense, but when it comes to defense, just stop.

Calm down dude. Even apart from stats, does your eye test not tell you that Viciedo is a butcher in the outfield and Beckham is acceptable at second?

[TaylorStSox]

Calm down dude. Even apart from stats, does your eye test not tell you that Viciedo is a butcher in the outfield and Beckham is acceptable at second?

 

I'm calm. I'm just not going to listen to a guy that's never seen a baseball game try to quantify a player's defensive ability and how it impacts a game. I'm not going to listen to the same guy talk about tools and upside. I'm sorry, but it's garbage.

 

Chances are that Viciedo and Beckham will continue to disappoint, but I would be patient with the younger, more gifted player.

[Balta1701]

I'll be patient with Viciedo for a long time because his good tools are extreme. Even if he doesn't ever figure it out, he's still somewhat productive. He's definitely worth the wait, especially considering he's not being pushed.

 

I've given up on Beckham because his tools aren't in the same vicinity. His hit tool is negated by his ugly swing. His glove is negated by his range. Beckham no longer has a peak worth waiting on.

I think we've been patient with Viciedo for about as long as we can be. I start getting really tempted to draw a hard line at the 2nd year arbitration level and that's where he'll be this offseason. The first year arb salary for a talented, struggling player is ~$2 million and I'll risk that on a guy with talent. The 2nd year arb salary starts getting close to $5 million and that's when "being patient" becomes pretty expensive.

[witesoxfan]

Get out of here with your Bulls*** War garbage. Viciedo is a better player with more upside. I don't care what your garbage defensive stats say.

 

I'm fine with advanced stats for offense, but when it comes to defense, just stop.

 

I think Viciedo and Beckham are in the exact same boat. At this exact point in time, there's no reason to get rid of them, but I'm not counting on either of them moving forward. They both have a fair amount of talent, but neither have ever really done anything.

 

It tells you something when people are talking about steps forward for Beckham when he's hit .256/.312/.409 this season, while we're still talking about the talent level of a guy in Viciedo with a career line of .260/.304/.428 over 1500 plate appearances.

 

I think Beckham will be dealt this deadline for a couple of arms. Viciedo will be shopped but I don't think mind giving him one more season too, so it's going to take more than most teams will give up. They'll hold out for a similar prospect to the people in this thread have been asking for - B+ type prospects, guys who are considered above average starting players moving forward - and I don't believe they'll get it because teams won't value him in a similar fashion and, again, they may as well give Viciedo one more shot next season (unless a reasonable upgrade shows itself, in which case they'll have no problem dealing him).

[Eminor3rd]

Get out of here with your Bulls*** War garbage. Viciedo is a better player with more upside. I don't care what your garbage defensive stats say.

 

I'm fine with advanced stats for offense, but when it comes to defense, just stop.

 

I'm calm. I'm just not going to listen to a guy that's never seen a baseball game try to quantify a player's defensive ability and how it impacts a game. I'm not going to listen to the same guy talk about tools and upside. I'm sorry, but it's garbage.

 

Chances are that Viciedo and Beckham will continue to disappoint, but I would be patient with the younger, more gifted player.

 

Whoa, looks like we got us a pro scout here.

 

By the way, if you're going to try to argue that Viciedo isn't bad on defense, I'm going to have to argue that you are the one who has never seen a game.

 

Edited July 2, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think we've been patient with Viciedo for about as long as we can be. I start getting really tempted to draw a hard line at the 2nd year arbitration level and that's where he'll be this offseason. The first year arb salary for a talented, struggling player is ~$2 million and I'll risk that on a guy with talent. The 2nd year arb salary starts getting close to $5 million and that's when "being patient" becomes pretty expensive.

 

 

Balta, I agree completely. I wouldn't be willing to pay Viciedo or Beckham the arb raises that they will get. If Viciedo was going to hit 35 homers every year, I could live with his shortcomings. But if he's in the 15-25 range, he doesn't really do anything well enough to justify playing him. He's a negative WAR player.

[TaylorStSox]

Whoa, looks like we got us a pro scout here.

 

By the way, if you're going to try to argue that Viciedo isn't bad on defense, I'm going to have to argue that you are the one who has never seen a game.

Woah, looks like we got us a strawman here.

 

Viciedo isn't good defensively, but he's not a "butcher." It's not like he's Carlos Lee out there.

 

As far as his future, I wouldn't have a problem paying him $5M for another year. I really wouldn't have a problem with letting him go either, but it's somewhat foolish to let a 25 year old with his talent walk during a rebuild. If he was being pushed, it would be different, but he's not.

[Dick Allen]

Woah, looks like we got us a strawman here.

 

Viciedo isn't good defensively, but he's not a "butcher." It's not like he's Carlos Lee out there.

 

As far as his future, I wouldn't have a problem paying him $5M for another year. I really wouldn't have a problem with letting him go either, but it's somewhat foolish to let a 25 year old with his talent walk during a rebuild. If he was being pushed, it would be different, but he's not.

 

 

When guys are hot, people like to mention they will regress to the mean. But if they don't like a player, when he's cold, they act as if he won't get another hit the rest of his career.

 

I think both Beckham and Viciedo are near the bottom of their 2014 rollercoaster ride. Viciedo seems to be rising the past 4 or 5 games. Beckham will start hitting again soon whether anyone wants to believe it or not.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Dick Allen

[TaylorStSox]

When guys are hot, people like to mention they will regress to the mean. But if they don't like a player, when he's cold, they act as if he won't get another hit the rest of his career.

 

I think both Beckham and Viciedo are near the bottom of their 2014 rollercoaster ride. Viciedo seems to be rising the past 4 or 5 games. Beckham will start hitting again soon whether anyone wants to believe it or not.

If this is "hot Viciedo," he can go too.

[witesoxfan]

When guys are hot, people like to mention they will regress to the mean. But if they don't like a player, when he's cold, they act as if he won't get another hit the rest of his career.

 

I think both Beckham and Viciedo are near the bottom of their 2014 rollercoaster ride. Viciedo seems to be rising the past 4 or 5 games. Beckham will start hitting again soon whether anyone wants to believe it or not.

 

I honestly really hope you're right, but there's almost 4300 plate appearances between the two of them to suggest that they aren't very good hitters. I won't rule it out, but it doesn't look good for either of them at this point.

[Dick Allen]

If this is "hot Viciedo," he can go too.

The last 4 or 5 games he's hit a few homers and a lot of his outs were hit very hard.

[witesoxfan]

The last 4 or 5 games he's hit a few homers and a lot of his outs were hit very hard.

 

.250/.304/.538/.842 over his last 15 games and 69 plate appearances, so he's been hitting well and I have no problem with that line from a RFer. Here's to hoping he keeps it up (or improves, because that line is also with a .257 BABIP, while he's got a career .300 BABIP).

[GreenSox]

Just looking at Fan Graphs, Peralta is a 9.1 WAR fielder this year and Alexei is -2. Am I supposed to believe that?

 

 

Anyway, we don't need to trade for middle infielders, when we have the worst OF in baseball, the worst 4/5 starters in baseball, close to the worst catching in baseball and perhaps the worst pitching in the minors in baseball (and if it isn't the worst, it is really light).

 

Alexei needs to be on the table.

[Feeky Magee]

I'm calm. I'm just not going to listen to a guy that's never seen a baseball game try to quantify a player's defensive ability and how it impacts a game. I'm not going to listen to the same guy talk about tools and upside. I'm sorry, but it's garbage.

 

Chances are that Viciedo and Beckham will continue to disappoint, but I would be patient with the younger, more gifted player.

Leaving aside the jibes, what is there to say that Viciedo is more gifted? He can do one thing better than most guys, and he can't even do it that much better. Beckham does a number of things about the same, a little worse or a little better than most guys, which ends up in him being a little below-average, but still useful.

 

I might be willing to cut Dayan some slack and point to others who have been late bloomers but a) the ones being pointed out by others started off from a higher floor and b) unlike them, Viciedo's numbers are trending downwards pretty much every year.

 

I'm fine with saying I think we know exactly what he have in both - Beckham is a below-average player who can be of some use, Dayan is hovering about replacement level and doesn't show any signs of being anything more than that.

 

I'm trading both for just about anything, but assuming all things were equal (salary, positional prospects etc.), if I had to keep one, it'd be Beckham.

 

Just looking at Fan Graphs, Peralta is a 9.1 WAR fielder this year and Alexei is -2. Am I supposed to believe that?

That's UZR, it doesn't = WAR, it's not reliable in small sample sizes, Alexei has been rated as plus on defence by the system overall this year (but declining year on year) and Peralta's defence has improved a lot.

[Eminor3rd]

Woah, looks like we got us a strawman here.

 

If I knocked down a strawman there, it was the one you just set up.

 

Viciedo isn't good defensively, but he's not a "butcher." It's not like he's Carlos Lee out there.

 

He's substantially below average. I acknowledge there have been worse defenders before, but DV remains a clear liability no matter which type of information you choose to ignore. Bad instincts, bad range, good arm.

 

As far as his future, I wouldn't have a problem paying him $5M for another year. I really wouldn't have a problem with letting him go either, but it's somewhat foolish to let a 25 year old with his talent walk during a rebuild. If he was being pushed, it would be different, but he's not.

 

I agree that his upside would likely be more valuable than the meager return we'd get trading him. That said, if Hahn has a line on a replacement, either via trade or free agency, he should not hesitate in the name of that aforementioned upside.

 

The interesting thing to me is how he's done it. I'm legitimately not sure whether to feel good or bad about his improved approach. I've always been low in Viciedo because I didn't think he was capable of better pitch recognition/selection. Didn't think it was a matter of attitude or approach, but rather his eye or brain or whatever it is that lets him figure out if it's a good idea to swing or not. But I think everyone, myself included, agreed that if he could find a way to be even league average in terms of patience/approach, he'd be much better.

 

Curiously, he's been a lot more selective, and he still sucks. His O-Swing% is hovering right around league average, which has always been his biggest issue, and his number are practically identical. It is weird. On one hand, he's shown an ability to adjust I didn't know that he had. But on the other, all those tantalizing tools, even being applied better, haven't added up to a good hitter. Hopefully Dick Allen is right and his results are just now lining up with his work.

 

[Dick Allen]

Speaking of regressing to the mean, Gordon Bechkam has. I don't see you championing him around as the golden boy saying all of his outs are line drives anymore.

He's been struggling recently. As I posted earlier, he will pick it up again.

[Rowand44]

Ya I've completely given up on Dayan or Gordon to ever be above average players. Hopefully one of them proves me wrong.

[Dick Allen]

Weren't you saying his hot streak wasn't a hot streak and he put it together?

I think he has it together. All players slump. I don't think he's a .330 hitter. I don't think he's a .250 hitter, but if he hits .275-.290 with some power and his defense, despite the haters saying he has no range, he's a pretty valuable guy.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Rowand44]

I think he has it together. All players slump.

Sure. If this was a player with a track record of being a good hitter I'd chalk it up to being a slump but when it's a player like Gordon it's more than likely regression to the mean. Hopefully I'm wrong and he's put something together but history suggests that this is more than just a slump.