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Keith Law's Midseason Top 50 Prospects


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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 12:48 PM)
I don't know, he wrote a pretty empassioned All-Star snub piece on Chris Sale that made him seem almost like a fanboy: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/...ses-and-snubs-2

 

 

 

I still think everything Law said about Sale in draft was totally reasonable. Sale DOES have a funky delivery, unconventional body, and a low arm slot. Those things typically lead to relievers with durability and platoon issues. We're all aware that flukey things happen and guys occasionally reach their ABSOLUTE ceilings like Sale has, but on paper (where, let's be honest, most of us are forced to get most of our info), Sale was a guy who ends up as a lefty-specialist 95%+ of the time. Sox gambled and won, and I'm glad they did and I'm glad to give the credit to their scouting dept., but it was still a gamble and thus the argument not to make the gamble in the first round is defensible.

He said he had a 40 slider and said it projected to 45. All below average. Also when questioned, he said Sale's delivery didn't scare him because of injury, but because he didn't think he could repeat it. Keith Law rated him 47th in that draft. He was very wrong. He doesn't need excuses.

 

Someone asked him what he thought about the Sox taking Sale, his ego responded, "I have him 47th, the White Sox took him 13th. You figure it out".

 

It's a good thing Mr. Law isn't in charge of the White Sox draft.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but Law didn't like Sale, and questioned the Abreu signing. Sorry, if he's supposed to come off as an expert, that's brutal.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:12 PM)
Actually, he's still getting better, across the board, so this is premature. While he's definitely regarded as one of the best in the game currently, his ABSOLUTE ceiling is the best-of-his-generation, IMO.

 

Kershaw is the guy with the best possibility of achieving that status, but does Clayton, or anyone, have more raw talent than Sale? I don't think so.

 

Eh, I think Kershaw is a better pitcher than Sale overall. I don't think he quite has the wipe out slider, but he has a cleaner delivery, it's harder to pick up the ball, and he's better at holding runners. They're both incredible pitchers.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:33 PM)
Eh, I think Kershaw is a better pitcher than Sale overall. I don't think he quite has the wipe out slider, but he has a cleaner delivery, it's harder to pick up the ball, and he's better at holding runners. They're both incredible pitchers.

 

It is kind of like asking if you would like to win the powerball or megamillions drawing.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:33 PM)
Eh, I think Kershaw is a better pitcher than Sale overall. I don't think he quite has the wipe out slider, but he has a cleaner delivery, it's harder to pick up the ball, and he's better at holding runners. They're both incredible pitchers.

 

I kind of agree with this at this point. I don't think Sale has peaked yet where Kershaw probably has. I will say that if we are talking about who we would rather have all things considered (contract, age, etc.), I would take Sale any day of the week.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:35 PM)
Sale throws a bit harder than Clayton too, right? But ya, I'm not arguing against Kershaw.

 

This year, Sale is at 93.4, Kershaw is at 93. Not a huge, huge difference. Seems they both sit in the 92-95 range, with Sale reaching peak velocity a little more often.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:40 PM)
This year, Sale is at 93.4, Kershaw is at 93. Not a huge, huge difference. Seems they both sit in the 92-95 range, with Sale reaching peak velocity a little more often.

Had it in my mind that the difference was a bit more. Nevermind, nothing to see here.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:40 PM)
This year, Sale is at 93.4, Kershaw is at 93. Not a huge, huge difference. Seems they both sit in the 92-95 range, with Sale reaching peak velocity a little more often.

 

I kind of wonder if Sale still has the 99-100 he had when he came up out of the pen if he wanted it. He seems to hit 96-97 with some amount of regularity.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 03:40 PM)
I kind of agree with this at this point. I don't think Sale has peaked yet where Kershaw probably has.

I'd say it more as "Kershaw is peaking right now and might keep this up for a few years", but yea, Kershaw has been in the league a lot longer than Sale and is a year older, so not totally surprising. We've just this year seen Sale getting better with that change up to righties.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:44 PM)
I kind of wonder if Sale still has the 99-100 he had when he came up out of the pen if he wanted it. He seems to hit 96-97 with some amount of regularity.

 

I doubt it right now, but I think if he worked out solely out of the bullpen, he'd get there again. Think of the 1600M run versus the 100M dash. If you work solely on one of those, the other is going to come up quite a bit short, and if you do both, you'd be ineffective in both.

 

 

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:51 PM)
My favorite difference between Sale and Kershaw is the fact that Kershaw will make $164 million from 2014-2019, Chris Sale will make $56.65 million.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't dare question who is more valuable. As Dave Cameron pointed out in his trade value series, Chris Sale is far and away the most valuable pitcher in the game today.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 01:33 PM)
Eh, I think Kershaw is a better pitcher than Sale overall. I don't think he quite has the wipe out slider, but he has a cleaner delivery, it's harder to pick up the ball, and he's better at holding runners. They're both incredible pitchers.

 

Right now, sure, but as mentioned, Sale is getting tangibly better. Perhaps Kershaw is too. Yes, they're both incredible.

 

Delivery issues are irrelevant unless they lead to injury and I'd argue that Sale has even more deception regarding picking up the ball, but I'll give you the runner-holding advantage. Sale's longish delivery will likely always make him mediocre in that area.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 03:11 PM)
Right now, sure, but as mentioned, Sale is getting tangibly better. Perhaps Kershaw is too. Yes, they're both incredible.

 

Delivery issues are irrelevant unless they lead to injury and I'd argue that Sale has even more deception regarding picking up the ball, but I'll give you the runner-holding advantage. Sale's longish delivery will likely always make him mediocre in that area.

 

I actually saw a breakdown of Kershaw's mechanics at one point - not sure if it was MLB Network or on a site somewhere - but with the way he comes to the plate, you really don't pick up the ball until very, very late, probably as late as you do with Sale, if not later. It's hard to see it watching him from behind, but if you watch him head on, it's incredibly difficult to see it.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:51 PM)
My favorite difference between Sale and Kershaw is the fact that Kershaw will make $164 million from 2014-2019, Chris Sale will make $56.65 million.

 

From 2008-2014, Kershaw will have earned under $24 million ending up at over 200+ starts and a 2.54 ERA. If the Sox got anything remotely close to that from Sale, that would be outstanding.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 01:12 PM)
Actually, he's still getting better, across the board, so this is premature. While he's definitely regarded as one of the best in the game currently, his ABSOLUTE ceiling is the best-of-his-generation, IMO.

 

Kershaw is the guy with the best possibility of achieving that status, but does Clayton, or anyone, have more raw talent than Sale? I don't think so.

 

All of this is beside the point I was making. Yeah, okay, maybe he develops a way to shoot lasers out of his eyes that distract the batter and he throw 9 straight no-hitters or whatever. He's a consensus top 4 pitcher in the Majors, that's about as high a "ceiling" as anyone has ever layed on a prospect.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 02:37 PM)
Maybe it's just healthy skepticism, but how does Javier Baez remain in the top 10 with a batting line of .240/.305/.449/.753, a K/BB rate of 4, and a K rate of 31.6%?

 

the perpetual myth of the cubs improvement must be maintained.

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QUOTE (venom4789 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 03:29 PM)
I personally hate keith law. I hope no one is wasting their money on insider.

 

I respect Keith Law's opinion far more than I do someone like Jon Heyman. The guy puts his honest opinion of how he feels a guy will project to the majors and doesn't just blow smoke up everyone's asses.

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