Sox Prospects: Stock Up/Down

[Boopa1219]

To me, his stock is pretty damn up. That doesn't mean all is well - it is a relative thing, compared to say, March. His HR total was identicontribute last year, though in more plate appearances. He did that while dropping his K rate substantially to a reasonable level, and dramatically increasing his hitting and walk rate. That's a big turnaround, and I just can't see how his stock is anything but up. What you seem to be getting at is, is it up ENOUGH? Which is a different question.

 

Also, you do realize that 30 HR in A+ is a huge number for any player, let alone a 20 year old at that level. You know how many players hit 30 home runs in the CAR this year? Zero. The most was Joey Gallo, who hit 21 (then hit 21 more in the Texas League because he is not human). Guess who was second in the entire league? Hawkins..

 

Bravo, Bravo.

 

A player that I am really excited for is Micker Adolfo, who really impressed me with his stint with the AZL squad. I know that during the last 10 games of the season that he was struggling at the plate, but I would contribute that towards him hitting a wall physically rather than his abilities at the plate. Take away the last ten games of the year and he batted .232, with 13 walks to go against 64 strikeouts. You have to keep in mind that he comes from a showcase background and that his body is not used to this kind of grind yet.

 

I know he batted .218 on the year, but he will not turn 18 for another two weeks. Give this kid more time to develop and the Sox will have a monster prospect on thier hands.

[ILMOU]

Agreed that Courtney's stock has to be up, just because of where it started. This, however, is a very different question than say "confidence level that player becomes a major leaguer - up or down?". I would say that, for me, the answer to this second question is a very slight and qualified up, but I'm not sure that CH's level of improvement was significant enough. Gigantic fleas remain, and he mostly limped home in the best hitter's park in a league where he was repeating a full season, albeit still much younger than the average.

 

Not exactly brimming with confidence that he'll make the big leap to AA successfully, and, of course, I sure hope to be wrong. Though Hawkins has retained more power than, for instance, Keon Barnum or Trayce Thompson, in a transition to improving contact skills, it's a sacrifice that I have a hard time equating with real progress.

 

As NSS has said, it only takes 1 in 20 becoming a star to make drafting raw high-ceiling talent worthwhile. But where's our ONE? Going back to Borchard through Mitchell, Walker, Hawkins, Trayce, Barnum and the rest, not only do none currently project to be MLBers, it's even questionable that any of them have experienced any discernible improvement, at all. I expect nothing beyond a cup-o-coffee from any of them. It would be very difficult, bordering on the absurd, to do a scientific study of the level of improvement a hitter experiences in one team's farm system vs. another, but having followed this stuff closely for many, many years, I would venture to say that our org is near or at the very bottom in this regard. Not too crazy about Trey M. being promoted at 19 with such a glaring Low A K rate, either. Frankly, I think the org is borderline incompetent in this area.

 

Would love to see a complete MiLB purge of all position player development personnel, but know that'll never happen while JR is in charge. Oh well.

 

EDIT: Looking at CH's stats again, maybe he deserves a bit more credit for improvement than I've given him as his ISO remained in the same range this year (~200) vs. his all-or-nothing '13, so perhaps not sacrificing power too much. There's hope.

Edited September 6, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[OilCan]

With the Sox minor league games all but over, I was thinking of who improved their stock/hurt their stock this season. Thoughts?

 

Stock Up:

1- Frank Montas

2- Tyler Danish

3- Andy Wilkins

4- Tim Anderson

5- Chris Bassitt

6- Trey Michalczewski

7- Carlos Sanchez

8- Rangel Ravelo

9- Cleuluis Rondon

10- Adam Engel

 

Stock Neutral:

- Micah Johnson

- Courtney Hawkins

- Chris Beck

- Scott Snodgress

- Keon Barnum

- Marcus Semien

- Josh Phegley

 

Stock Down:

1- Erik Johnson

2- Matt Davidson

3- Trayce Thompson

3- Andre Rienzo

4- B. Ortiz/A. Mitchell

5- Jacob May

 

 

I like to add Andre Wheeler and Jordan Guerrero for stock up. Those two lefties in Low A are ones to watch, especially since Wheeler was name by FutureSox's pitcher of the month for August.

 

Hawkins and May should be stock up.

[GreenSox]

Beck (though he went back up a bit recently for me)

I thought Beck did better in AAA than in AA.

But, that just could be because the hitters are better in AA. A lot of AAA is replete with AAAA talent, whereas the real prospects are in AA.

[Boopa1219]

Not a stock up/stock down, but these are the top prospects in my opinion.

 

Rodon,

Anderson,

Hawkins,

Montas,

Danish,

Adams,

Martinez,

Michalczewski,

Adolfo,

Rondon.

[NorthSideSox72]

I thought Beck did better in AAA than in AA.

But, that just could be because the hitters are better in AA. A lot of AAA is replete with AAAA talent, whereas the real prospects are in AA.

The better PROSPECTS are in AA, maybe (not even sure I'd agree there, but an argument can be made). Better HITTERS are in AAA. In other words, the more polished guys, who've been around longer and are more patient, are in AAA. It's a subtle but important difference. Because some key prospects either skip AAA or are only there briefly, the talent-driven evaluation puts AA on top. But as products at that moment in time, lineups in AAA will be harder to get through than those in AA.

[LDF]

 

in my quest not to make unnecessary thread, I will recycle this one.

 

I saw this article and saw a surprise in the list.

 

enjoy.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2230749...-5-years/page/9

[oldsox]

in my quest not to make unnecessary thread, I will recycle this one.

 

I saw this article and saw a surprise in the list.

 

enjoy.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2230749...-5-years/page/9

I hope Rick and Kenny see the article.

[LDF]

I hope Rick and Kenny see the article.

 

 

for some reason I find my self laughing, but for the life of me, I do not know

why. I must be tired.

 

but its kool.

[GreenSox]

I certainly don't think Wilkins' stock went up. I put him about the same place as J Mitchell, whom I don't think made your list. Probably a career minor leaguer.

 

Hawkins' stock probably went back up to where it was before his terrible 2013.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2014 by GreenSox

[Eminor3rd]

I certainly don't think Wilkins' stock went up. I put him about the same place as J Mitchell, whom I don't think made your list. Probably a career minor leaguer.

 

Hawkins' stock probably went back up to where it was before his terrible 2013.

 

I agree -- Wilkins looked nothing short of hopeless in his cup of coffee. Hopefully it was just nerves or something.

[Balta1701]

I agree -- Wilkins looked nothing short of hopeless in his cup of coffee. Hopefully it was just nerves or something.

He's been a very slow starter at every level he's stopped at. No one should have been surprised by that whether he's a usable player or not.

[NorthSideSox72]

He's been a very slow starter at every level he's stopped at. No one should have been surprised by that whether he's a usable player or not.

I was curious about this, and it turns out it isn't really the case.

 

2010 Rookie ball he rocked right out of the gate

2011 skipped to A+, was good in April, very good in May, down in June, Big up in July, down somewhat in August. So he was just plain streaky.

2012 in AA it was sort of true - he was bad in April, better in May, very good in June then back down for the rest of the year

2013 he was decent in April and strong in AA by May and held it, and actually did quite well his first few weeks in AAA before falling apart slowly as the summer went on

2014 in AAA it was certainly true - he got better each month through a monster July, then came back down in August and really suffered in MLB

 

I'd say if there is a pattern there, it is that he falls off late in the season generally. He may have been just plain tired in September. The very slow starter thing hasn't really been there, until 2014.

[Balta1701]

I was curious about this, and it turns out it isn't really the case.

 

2010 Rookie ball he rocked right out of the gate

2011 skipped to A+, was good in April, very good in May, down in June, Big up in July, down somewhat in August. So he was just plain streaky.

2012 in AA it was sort of true - he was bad in April, better in May, very good in June then back down for the rest of the year

2013 he was decent in April and strong in AA by May and held it, and actually did quite well his first few weeks in AAA before falling apart slowly as the summer went on

2014 in AAA it was certainly true - he got better each month through a monster July, then came back down in August and really suffered in MLB

 

I'd say if there is a pattern there, it is that he falls off late in the season generally. He may have been just plain tired in September. The very slow starter thing hasn't really been there, until 2014.

Well, i'm gonna stop saying that then.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I was curious about this, and it turns out it isn't really the case.

 

2010 Rookie ball he rocked right out of the gate

2011 skipped to A+, was good in April, very good in May, down in June, Big up in July, down somewhat in August. So he was just plain streaky.

2012 in AA it was sort of true - he was bad in April, better in May, very good in June then back down for the rest of the year

2013 he was decent in April and strong in AA by May and held it, and actually did quite well his first few weeks in AAA before falling apart slowly as the summer went on

2014 in AAA it was certainly true - he got better each month through a monster July, then came back down in August and really suffered in MLB

 

I'd say if there is a pattern there, it is that he falls off late in the season generally. He may have been just plain tired in September. The very slow starter thing hasn't really been there, until 2014.

There seems to be another pattern also though it may not support Baltas claim entirely . His May was always stronger than his April . Didn't look anything up. Just going by what you said. This might give the impression that he starts slow then gains momemntum.