Jason Castro

[LDF]

Where did Flowers make progress exactly? His K%, BB%, & ISO last year were all near his all-time lows in those stats.

 

if you factor in the whole season, yes. he was lousy offensively.

i don't know, when he got his glasses, he seem to be hitting decently.

 

those are the splits i am using. however if the sox brass has no

faith him, that is another issue. but the other holes are more

glaring.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Where did Flowers make progress exactly? His K%, BB%, & ISO last year were all near his all-time lows in those stats.

 

Line drive percentage.

 

Believe it or not Flowers 23.7% ranked 6th among catchers with 250 PAs in LD%....His previous high was 17.7% which would have ranked 32nd.

 

It was apparent to me that when he did hit the ball he was making much better contact.

Edited November 15, 2014 by scs787

[BlackSox13]

Where did Flowers make progress exactly? His K%, BB%, & ISO last year were all near his all-time lows in those stats.

How about BA, OBP, SLG, OPS...

 

All of which, BTW, were better than what Castro put up last year. Even Tyler's defense improved and as others have pointed out, he handled the pitching staff well.

 

The Astros are shopping Castro based on his 2013 numbers which explains why the asking price is "high ". Meanwhile, interested teams point to his 2014 numbers and the fact the Astros have 3 catchers and should get rid of one. The Astros are not in a position to charge full price for Castro and Hahn is not a big enough fool to pay full price under these circumstances.

 

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

How about BA, OBP, SLG, OPS...

 

All of which, BTW, were better than what Castro put up last year. Even Tyler's defense improved and as others have pointed out, he handled the pitching staff well.

 

The Astros are shopping Castro based on his 2013 numbers which explains why the asking price is "high ". Meanwhile, interested teams point to his 2014 numbers and the fact the Astros have 3 catchers and should get rid of one. The Astros are not in a position to charge full price for Castro and Hahn is not a big enough fool to pay full price under these circumstances.

Come on man, the improvement in all those stats you quoted were fueled by an unrealistic BABIP. I'm not buying Flowers putting up a .355 BABIP again next year. Unless those glasses were indeed magical, he's a gigantic candidate for regression.

[BlackSox13]

Come on man, the improvement in all those stats you quoted were fueled by an unrealistic BABIP. I'm not buying Flowers putting up a .355 BABIP again next year. Unless those glasses were indeed magical, he's a gigantic candidate for regression.

You're making zero sense. You think Flowers will regress based on his progression and Castro will progress based on his regression. Really?

 

Castro is no lock for progression next year and is not a clear upgrade over Flowers. Castro's value is based off of his 2013 season but not the 2014 season in which he played where he regressed? Flowers value is based on his terrible 2013 season and not on the 2014 season where he progressed? So its considered an upgrade when a team trades for a player (Castro) that regressed in 2014 and use that player to replace a player ( Flowers) that not only progressed in 2014 but put up better numbers than the player (Castro) the team traded for? Whaaaaaat?

[Chicago White Sox]

You're making zero sense. You think Flowers will regress based on his progression and Castro will progress based on his regression. Really?

Lol...Flowers is going to regress because he got lucky last year. As I mentioned before, his K%, BB%, & ISO were amongst his career lows. You quoted a bunch of stats fueled by luck and said he progressed. If he doesn't either learn to K less or BB more, his stats will go down significantly next year.

 

As for Castro, feel free to overreact to a bad 2014, but he is closer to the 2013 version than the player we saw last year IMO. His BB% has been at or above 9.3% in every single season of his professional career prior to last year when it dropped to 6.6%. That screams outlier to me and I strongly believe that rate will return closer to career norms in 2015. If so, he'll be incredibly more valuable than the player Flowers is likely to be next year. Again, just my opinion.

[Balta1701]

Lol...Flowers is going to regress because he got lucky last year. As I mentioned before, his K%, BB%, & ISO were amongst his career lows. You quoted a bunch of stats fueled by luck and said he progressed. If he doesn't either learn to K less or BB more, his stats will go down significantly next year.

 

As for Castro, feel free to overreact to a bad 2014, but he is closer to the 2013 version than the player we saw last year IMO. His BB% has been at or above 9.3% in every single season of his professional career prior to last year when it dropped to 6.6%. That screams outlier to me and I strongly believe that rate will return closer to career norms in 2015. If so, he'll be incredibly more valuable than the player Flowers is likely to be next year. Again, just my opinion.

I'm not saying he wouldn't be more valuable than Flowers, just that it's not worth trading anything particularly useful for that upgrade since it wouldn't be very big.

[Baron]

I'm not saying he wouldn't be more valuable than Flowers, just that it's not worth trading anything particularly useful for that upgrade since it wouldn't be very big.

 

Who were you thinking about? More than likely they'll want some of our infield prospects

[BlackSox13]

None of this Castro talk is making any sense at all so I'll leave you all to it, I'm crawling out of this rabbit hole.

[Vance Law]

As for Castro, feel free to overreact to a bad 2014, but he is closer to the 2013 version than the player we saw last year IMO. His BB% has been at or above 9.3% in every single season of his professional career prior to last year when it dropped to 6.6%. That screams outlier to me and I strongly believe that rate will return closer to career norms in 2015. If so, he'll be incredibly more valuable than the player Flowers is likely to be next year. Again, just my opinion.

 

If he walks 2.5% more, that's going to make up the gigantic gulf in his results between 2013 and 2014? If he draws 12 or 13 more walks he puts up and OPS closer to .830 than .650? You seem to be ignoring that his strikeout rate went up in 2014 to just shy of 30% and that his .294 BABIP shows that he really wasn't unlucky.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

If he walks 2.5% more, that's going to make up the gigantic gulf in his results between 2013 and 2014? If he draws 12 or 13 more walks he puts up and OPS closer to .830 than .650? You seem to be ignoring that his strikeout rate went up in 2014 to just shy of 30% and that his .294 BABIP shows that he really wasn't unlucky.

 

 

Castro + Flowers >>>>> Flowers + Nieto

[Balta1701]

Who were you thinking about? More than likely they'll want some of our infield prospects

I wouldn't give up any of those guys frankly. I think Sanchez or any of the other ones has a good chance of being more useful to us than Castro. Maybe not next year alone, but counting the fact that Castro is close to FA and the rest have 6+ years?

 

Some minor league reliever is about my limit. Maybe one of the starters we have at AAA who isn't high on the list. You might be able to talk me out of Beck just because we have so many other starting candidates on their way up, but I'm iffy and that depends on what the org thinks of him.

[Chicago White Sox]

If he walks 2.5% more, that's going to make up the gigantic gulf in his results between 2013 and 2014? If he draws 12 or 13 more walks he puts up and OPS closer to .830 than .650? You seem to be ignoring that his strikeout rate went up in 2014 to just shy of 30% and that his .294 BABIP shows that he really wasn't unlucky.

Look, I don't think he's ever going to repeat his 2013 season. The BABIP and the ISO look real flukey IMO. I also think he's far better than what we saw last year. His BB% was down 3.5 to 4 points from where it has been at the major league level. That's a huge drop regardless of the fact you're trying to minimize it by citing the specific amout of walks it represents. If he can return back to normal in that area, my guess is the K% will also improve as well.

 

I think the .735 OPS Castro put up in 2012 is a realistic outcome for him next year. I think that far exceed what Flowers puts up next year. Do you disagree?

[Chicago White Sox]

I wouldn't give up any of those guys frankly. I think Sanchez or any of the other ones has a good chance of being more useful to us than Castro. Maybe not next year alone, but counting the fact that Castro is close to FA and the rest have 6+ years?

 

Some minor league reliever is about my limit. Maybe one of the starters we have at AAA who isn't high on the list. You might be able to talk me out of Beck just because we have so many other starting candidates on their way up, but I'm iffy and that depends on what the org thinks of him.

Are you serious? You wouldn't do Sanchez for Castro straight up??? That's mind-boggling crazy to me. Even if you don't think he's an upgrade over Flowers, he'd give us a great tandem of catchers to work with when we currently don't even have a backup.

 

Also, Sanchez's ceiling is solid middle infielder and I really think he'll end up being just a utility guy (although a good one). That has some value, but let's not carried away here. There aren't a lot good catchers out there and two years of Castro would be far more valuable than six years of a reserve infielder.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

The other item of consideration is that there aren't many other upgrades at Catcher. There just arent a lot of guys available that are significant upgrades for the Sox.

 

Castro is about as good as you're going to get considering the market and what is available.

 

Grandal and Castro are the only two that would be traded by their teams. Grandal is less likely to be traded if if he is, will cost a whole lot more.

 

If not Castro, then who else is going to provide an upgrade?

 

If Hahn can work a deal with Houston that doesn't cost a top-10 prospect, then I think you HAVE to do it.

[Balta1701]

Are you serious? You wouldn't do Sanchez for Castro straight up??? That's mind-boggling crazy to me. Even if you don't think he's an upgrade over Flowers, he'd give us a great tandem of catchers to work with when we currently don't even have a backup.

 

Also, Sanchez's ceiling is solid middle infielder and I really think he'll end up being just a utility guy (although a good one). That has some value, but let's not carried away here. There aren't a lot good catchers out there and two years of Castro would be far more valuable than six years of a reserve infielder.

He'd be worth more but he'll also be paid more, and he'll give us an "improved" tandem of catchers, not a great tandem unless he's the 2013 Jason Castro. As others pointed out in this thread, his numbers that year look like an outlier that he isn't likely to reproduce without significantly improving again.

 

Look at it another way, Castro is 2nd year arb, so let's assume a $4 million salary in 2015 and $6 million in 2016 after $2.45 mil in arb year 1. Can you convince me that I couldn't get similar production for that money without giving up the middle IF?

[Chicago White Sox]

He'd be worth more but he'll also be paid more, and he'll give us an "improved" tandem of catchers, not a great tandem unless he's the 2013 Jason Castro. As others pointed out in this thread, his numbers that year look like an outlier that he isn't likely to reproduce without significantly improving again.

 

Look at it another way, Castro is 2nd year arb, so let's assume a $4 million salary in 2015 and $6 million in 2016 after $2.45 mil in arb year 1. Can you convince me that I couldn't get similar production for that money without giving up the middle IF?

Tell me who would give you similar production?

 

The only good free agent catcher is looking at 5/$75M+ deal right now. If you want a decent catcher, you'll need to find one via trade and I can't think of anyone that's available that are better than Grandal or Castro.

[2nd_city_saint787]

If it means having to give up anything of value I think I might rather have Ryan Doumit or AJP.

 

Or if want a defensive catcher, even though Flowers hasn't been a bad defensive catcher at all, go grab Nick Hundley.

 

Castro has been in the bigs 4 years. His 1 good year he had a .355 BABIP. I don't think it's crazy to think that he's more of the player he was in those other 3 years than his 1 good year.

 

Again, like everyone has said, he's an upgrade but not by much.

[LDF]

 

in order to find a quick fix at catching, the org will have to settle in the fa market. however

there are holes in the team as many others have express. is there a way to deal with Flowers

and really concretate on other areas that really need fixing? I think the sox should see if Flowers

performance at the end is real or not. he does handle the pitchers well and is decent on defense.

that should be good for now.

 

how to fix the hole in the catching in the org. Draft and trade package. that will be the only

way. Hahn has yet to show his hand.

 

the sox need to save all their resources for the problems that in now at hand.

[Vance Law]

Look, I don't think he's ever going to repeat his 2013 season. The BABIP and the ISO look real flukey IMO. I also think he's far better than what we saw last year. His BB% was down 3.5 to 4 points from where it has been at the major league level. That's a huge drop regardless of the fact you're trying to minimize it by citing the specific amout of walks it represents. If he can return back to normal in that area, my guess is the K% will also improve as well.

 

I think the .735 OPS Castro put up in 2012 is a realistic outcome for him next year. I think that far exceed what Flowers puts up next year. Do you disagree?

 

I'd think Castro is a better offensive player than Flowers. Probably not by much, considering Flowers was better than him last year. So it is a probable marginal upgrade for 2 years. He has value, so the Astros are not going to give him away, despite Sox fans' hopes of constructing a fantasy "We should trade for this player, would his team accept this collection of failed prospects that we don't want?" They also aren't going to trade him for Carlos Sanchez. We'd have to give up young player(s) that we really want which simply doesn't make sense for a team building to be perennially competitive- trade away your future starters for 2 years of a marginal upgrade at catcher.

 

edit: If Castro were part of a larger deal, potentially with multiple teams and with Flowers being shipped elsewhere, that could be worthwhile. But that's a lot of moving parts and probably difficult to find the right fit of teams and players, all the while, there are more pressing issues.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Vance Law

[LDF]

I'd think Castro is a better offensive player than Flowers. Probably not by much, considering Flowers was better than him last year. So it is a probable marginal upgrade for 2 years. He has value, so the Astros are not going to give him away, despite Sox fans' hopes of constructing a fantasy "We should trade for this player, would his team accept this collection of failed prospects that we don't want?" They also aren't going to trade him for Carlos Sanchez. We'd have to give up young player(s) that we really want which simply doesn't make sense for a team building to be perennially competitive- trade away your future starters for 2 years of a marginal upgrade at catcher.

 

edit: If Castro were part of a larger deal, potentially with multiple teams and with Flowers being shipped elsewhere, that could be worthwhile. But that's a lot of moving parts and probably difficult to find the right fit of teams and players, all the while, there are more pressing issues.

 

I agree with your edit part.

 

there is really no leverage trading for Castro. esp in the long run. also the price to

pay to get Castro is not ideal.

[GGajewski18]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/cafa...mmel-miley.html

 

Castro and now Fowler both available in trade. I think it would be interesting to possibly make a deal like this although I think the price would be high.

 

Then go right handed starter via free agency.

 

Not saying I would do it, just another option that Hahn has.

[GreenSox]

Are you serious? You wouldn't do Sanchez for Castro straight up??? That's mind-boggling crazy to me. Even if you don't think he's an upgrade over Flowers, he'd give us a great tandem of catchers to work with when we currently don't even have a backup.

 

Also, Sanchez's ceiling is solid middle infielder and I really think he'll end up being just a utility guy (although a good one). That has some value, but let's not carried away here. There aren't a lot good catchers out there and two years of Castro would be far more valuable than six years of a reserve infielder.

Sox are going to need Sanchez after they trade Alexei

 

I just don't understand the zeal to trade assets for marginal upgrades, esp with a team thin on starting pitching, no LF, and thin on quality prospects. I also think Flowers, who posted similar offensive numbers as Castro, is under appreciated for his work with pitchers, holding runners, despite being over-used (to protect Nieto) last year. Flowers had a higher WAR than both Monetero and Castro last year, and yet people want to use scarce resource for these players.

 

I like Fowler, but he's a 1 year rent. He should be on our radar a year from now.

Edited November 23, 2014 by GreenSox

[TheFutureIsNear]

I would definitely trade for Fowler and work out an extension with him. He would be absolutely perfect for us in the #2 hole....switch hitting high OBP guy who would likely be a + defender in LF. According to the article the asking price isn't that high, but they are looking for bullpen help...something we don't exactly have a ton of. Bassitt and Webb for Fowler and give him a 4 year $48M deal right away?

Edited November 23, 2014 by TheFutureIsNear

[Whisox05]

I'm sure the Astros are going to be asking pretty high on castro and fowler. Castro was a former first round draft pick and not going to give him a way cheaply. Plus the fact castro still has 2 yrs before free agency. Fowler will be probably high just for the fact the astros need talent. Bassitt and Webb would be high I think for fowler just because we are desperate for bullpen help. Trading away need doesn't help.

Edited November 23, 2014 by WhiteSoxLifer