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shago

These moves are awesome, if ..........

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Is this thread really necessary?

 

Everyone in the world knows we need another LF, starting pitcher and a bullpen piece...and that 3B, 2B, C and even Avisail Garcia are far from certainties.

 

But what's the point? We should spend another $20-25 million to "finish the job"?

 

 

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QUOTE (La Marr Hoyt HOF @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 08:44 PM)
C, OF, 3B, go .........................

 

We need about 3 more pieces than what you posted

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Disclaimer: The following post is only based off of your traditional stats. I am fully aware that advanced stats are the stats of the now, but I am not well-versed in them, and not confident enough to use them in context. I would love it if some advanced stats gurus could follow this post up and debunk and/or back up any of the arguments I have provided below.

 

He brings up a valid point, and even Rick Hahn has alluded to it. We want to get more athletic in LF. Viciedo is just not athletic enough. I was completely dumbfounded when someone in this forum posted that Viciedo actually played at a level below replacement level... yet still hit 21 home runs! To me, that speaks to how bad he really is defensively. Yet, he is still young enough to get better offensively. And we also want to do that, right? I'm going to try and "pencil" in your basic, old school stats for each of our current starting position players to the degree that the Sox think these guys can and will produce. I know that they may be overly optimistic, and injuries could derail it (see Avi Garcia), but with a full, healthy season for each player, this is what I think we can reasonably accept.

 

 

 

DH Abreu- .290 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI with potential for even higher numbers in all 3 categories

C Flowers- .240 AVG, 15 HR 50 RBI

1B Laroche- .250 AVG, 20 HR, 75 RBI with above average defense

2B Sanchez/Johnson- Wild Card. Don't know what to expect, but definitely to expect low power numbers and average to above average defense with speed

SS Ramirez -.270 AVG 15 HR 65 RBI with above average defense and some speed

3B Gillaspie- .260 AVG 10 HR 50 RBI with hopefully improving defense and potential for higher AVG and RBI should the Sox expect improvement in his offensive game

LF Viciedo - .230 AVG 20 HR 60 RBI with bad defense

CF Eaton- .290 AVG 5 HR 50 RBI with great defense and speed

RF Garcia- Another Wild Card but I believe the Sox expect something in the neighborhood of .270 20 HR and 80 RBI, with improving defense and good speed.

 

Finding an upgrade for Viciedo that not only matches his 20 HR output, but vastly improves the defense is going to be tough. As we can see, I don't pencil in the Sox starters for over 150 Home runs. Not exactly a dealbreaker, but in this scenario you ideally don't want to "lose" Viciedos 20 home runs and only get a good defensive replacement, especially when the Sox play in a home run hitters ballpark. Now, how many players are actually out there that can improve us that we can feasibly acquire? I'm all about Dickerson as much as the next guy, but our farm system would then become depleted if we traded for him. I assume that they would want a package starting with Anderson and Montas and then more on top of that. If that were to happen, then we can safely say that Ken Williams still has his mark on this team :lol:

 

Melky Cabrera is another option that I would like, provided we can find a taker for Danks and Viciedos contracts. I think this is the most likely scenario, unless the Sox are adamant about not buying players with steroid history. But I say, if the man is clean now, and the man is the best fit for us, this is still a business and you have to do what is best for the team. Melky should provide average to above-average defense and 20 HRs at the Cell. You get your Viciedo upgrade without losing the home runs, without losing prospects, and losing only a 3rd round pick. Play the game with the Mariners for a bit until they offer something you can stomach for Viciedo... and then there's the business of Danks contract.

 

Presumably we could not add Cabrera to this team without finding a taker for his contract. It sucks that we couldn't just bite the bullet and add Cabrera if we couldn't trade Danks, but this is the reality of it. I really kind of want to keep Danks around for this next season, as he adds a reliable (reliable in the fact that you will most likely get a lot of innings out of him) presence to the back of our rotation. Trading him makes Noesi our #4, and ??? our #5. You'd have to be sold that Rodon is ready, and able to pitch big innings. I believe Rodon could be ready, but is he ready to pitch big innings? He pitched around 130 innings in 2013 and around 120 total innings between college and the minors in 2014. You could make the argument that he should be ready to add a couple dozen innings to that in 2015. Is 150-160 IP acceptable from your #4 starter presuming that he provides above replacement level value in those innings? It's an interesting thought... and would give the Sox the flexibility to trade Danks and sign Cabrera.

 

Now on to the subject of 3B. We're not really sure what to expect from Gillaspie. He had an electric first half with the bat, sustaining a high batting average, but with little power. I think it's safe to say that if we tried to ask him to be a power hitter, his average would drop immensely. It's interesting to note that Conor had a great batting average for the first 3 months, and hit no home runs. Then, in July, Conor knocked out 4 home runs all while still maintaining that high average. Then came his abysmal September and August. Did Conor run out of gas? Just hit a slump? Started trying to hit home runs? The answer is not clear. What is clear is that Conor was able to hit over .300 in 3 out of the 6 months of the season, and in one of them he hit a not-so-terrible .264. As for his defense, I think you can expect to at least see marginal improvement in his game, as far as that is concerned.

 

Ideally, from your 3B position, you want to see more power. You want at least 15 HR and 70 RBI. But what's out there? Headley? Have any other names been kicked around in rumors? There was Sandoval, and he hits a few more home runs then Conor, but I don't think the Sox viewed him as an upgrade that was worth shelling out the big bucks. I'm not trying to say Conor is as good as Pablo... but their stats weren't completely dissimilar, and I think this played into the Sox' pursuit. Conor comes cheap with lesser (not not dramatically lesser) stats then Sandoval. Not worth 100 million, I think. What would be worth the upgrade at big dollars is an Adrian Beltre type, but that's not happening. It almost seems like the Sox are "stuck" with Gillaspie, whether you believe that to be a good thing or not. He wasn't good enough that you'd feel "set" that 3B, but he wasn't bad enough that you want to spend a lot of money for a marginal upgrade. I think the Sox end up going into the season with Gillaspie as the starting 3B.

 

And finally, the OP mentions C as a position of need, and I will go ahead and disagree here. We all know you could get better at C offensively. But at what cost? Isn't it true that Flowers provided average defense last year? That's not so bad. The guy has a little pop, but he won't hit for average and by all means I believe he has a good rapport with Sox pitchers and coaches. There have been no murmurs whatsoever of trying to find a replacement catcher, which leads me to believe the Sox are ready to go into 2015 with Flowers the starting catcher. And I don't have an issue with it. You don't need elite offensive players at every position to win the World Series. Plus, you never know, Flowers could break out for a 20 HR season and I think we'd all be very happy with that.

 

Thanks for reading.

 

TOO LONG; DIDNT READ

Trade Viciedo and Danks

Slot Rodon into rotation or find a cheap #5 starter

Sign Melky

Go to war with Gillaspie and Flowers, provided a player you can't pass up on becomes available (which in all likelihood, won't)

 

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QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:08 PM)
TOO LONG; DIDNT READ

Trade Viciedo and Danks

Slot Rodon into rotation or find a cheap #5 starter

Sign Melky

Go to war with Gillaspie and Flowers, provided a player you can't pass up on becomes available (which in all likelihood, won't)

 

I think your evaluation is pretty spot on.

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Pick up Ichiro on the cheap for a 1 year deal with a club option for a 2nd year and try to trade Viciedo for Ackley - now you are more athletic in LF and Ackley is cheap insurance in case kids can't cut it at 2B.

 

If Jerry is willing to open up the purse strings just a bit more, trade Viciedo to Seattle for whatever the return (as long as not costly) and use $4 mil+ savings toward a 2 year deal (with club option for 3rd year) to grab Rasmus to play LF. In prime and 1 season removed from batting .270+ with 25 - 30 HR power and much more capable defense than V.

 

Then extend a few minor league invites to some pitchers and hope to catch lightning in a bottle...

 

I'd still love to trade for Castro for a C upgrade and look to upgrade at 3B but the bigger need in LF is solved for as listed above.

 

 

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:41 AM)
Definitely one more, maybe two.

 

Does "one move" equate to something like shipping out Viciedo and bringing in another OF, or does that count as the 2 moves? I'd have to believe it counts as one, because they have to replace Viciedo somehow if they trade him... and thats not a maybe.

Edited by South Sider

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What about a guy like Everth Cabrera who we could get on a cheap deal? I know he has a sketchy past, but I think he would be great insurance for 2B, and could be a nice piece off the bench.

 

Another guy to consider (if ATL would pay for a lot of his contact) is Chris Johnson. Maybe flip Viciedo for him? He mashes LHP, and would be great to give conor or LaRoche a break.

 

Just putting some ideas out there

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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:41 AM)
Definitely one more, maybe two.

 

 

I'm guessing that this means dump Viciedo for last RHP bullpen piece, acquire or sign LF for sure, continue to try to upgrade at C.

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Guys, I like Rock too, but not everything he posts is based on inside information. He also has his own opinions. Not sure which he even meant here.

 

Clearly the team is still looking to upgrade at least LF. C and RP are probably based on opportunities is my guess - purely a guess though. I personally think they need one more RH starter too. But RF and SP are the only high priority items left in my view. The C and RP upgrades, at this point, are just nice to haves.

 

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QUOTE (La Marr Hoyt HOF @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 08:44 PM)
C, OF, 3B, go .........................

You missed the #2 need. A fourth starter.

And a LF.

C (a defensive position) and 3B aren't holes.

We have made the moves this year giving up secondary players. That's what the Sox should give up with still a 2nd tier farm and a building team.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 02:38 PM)
You missed the #2 need. A fourth starter.

And a LF.

C (a defensive position) and 3B aren't holes.

We have made the moves this year giving up secondary players. That's what the Sox should give up with still a 2nd tier farm and a building team.

 

John Danks, while not well liked around these parts, is a solid #4. Sure, he's paid like 2 or 3, but he is just fine as a #4. Danks and Noesi can hold down the 4/5 slots just fine, and we'll likely see Rodon with at least 10-15 starts. While I would obviously love to add another SP (I liked the idea of Masterson or E. Santana - those ships have sailed, and I doubt the Sox spend their assets on a SP). A decent reclamation project would be welcomed, however - say, Billingsly, Josh Johnson, Medlan, Beachy, Morrow or even Floyd. I do expect the Sox to bring someone like that, or maybe a slightly lesser name, into the fold.

 

The main need is obviously LF. I still expect to see Melky, Rasmus or Aoki on this club, and if not, the LF will come via trade.

 

I am fine going to battle with Gillaspie at 3B (sign Bonafacio, Rick..he's a perfect fit and platoon w/ Conor against LHP) and Flowers at C.

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People keep guessing Rasmus, but I just can't see the Sox bringing in a bad clubhouse guy (especially one that LaRussa didn't get along with). For some reason, I keep thinking Will Venable will end up on the Sox and platoon with someone like Denorfia.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 02:51 PM)
John Danks, while not well liked around these parts, is a solid #4. Sure, he's paid like 2 or 3, but he is just fine as a #4. Danks and Noesi can hold down the 4/5 slots just fine, and we'll likely see Rodon with at least 10-15 starts. While I would obviously love to add another SP (I liked the idea of Masterson or E. Santana - those ships have sailed, and I doubt the Sox spend their assets on a SP). A decent reclamation project would be welcomed, however - say, Billingsly, Josh Johnson, Medlan, Beachy, Morrow or even Floyd. I do expect the Sox to bring someone like that, or maybe a slightly lesser name, into the fold.

 

The main need is obviously LF. I still expect to see Melky, Rasmus or Aoki on this club, and if not, the LF will come via trade.

 

I am fine going to battle with Gillaspie at 3B (sign Bonafacio, Rick..he's a perfect fit and platoon w/ Conor against LHP) and Flowers at C.

I agree that Danks/Noesi and eventually Rodon make for a good enough 4 and 5 combo, especially if a reclamation veteran is added to the mix.

 

As for LF, if a big fish/significant payroll addition is not in the cards, what about Aoki? He could be a cheaper version of Melky -- good OBP, #2 hitter -- and he'll be a heck of a lot cheaper.

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QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 03:28 PM)
I agree that Danks/Noesi and eventually Rodon make for a good enough 4 and 5 combo, especially if a reclamation veteran is added to the mix.

 

As for LF, if a big fish/significant payroll addition is not in the cards, what about Aoki? He could be a cheaper version of Melky -- good OBP, #2 hitter -- and he'll be a heck of a lot cheaper.

 

I wouldn't mind Aoki if they thought he could return to his rookie year form when he put up a .787 OPS, but if he performs like he did last year, our outfield has a serious lack of power issue. We might be looking at a total of 20-25 home runs from our starting outfielders and that's not good.

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Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 2h2 hours ago

 

Don Cooper is really excited about White Sox offseason. "I'm so psyched about the moves." Has already begun charting ind. pitcher skeds.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:35 PM)
Guys, I like Rock too, but not everything he posts is based on inside information. He also has his own opinions. Not sure which he even meant here.

 

Clearly the team is still looking to upgrade at least LF. C and RP are probably based on opportunities is my guess - purely a guess though. I personally think they need one more RH starter too. But RF and SP are the only high priority items left in my view. The C and RP upgrades, at this point, are just nice to haves.

Thank you . This needed to be said in the worst way. Now if someone can take all of Rock's recent posts and tell me he was spot on in the Sox acquisitions then keep jumping on his bandwagon. No disrespect meant.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 08:56 PM)
Thank you . This needed to be said in the worst way. Now if someone can take all of Rock's recent posts and tell me he was spot on in the Sox acquisitions then keep jumping on his bandwagon. No disrespect meant.

I share what I can. I'm not a an oracle. I'll use IMO next time.

 

I've had my share of solid info on deals though, but I get as much bs info fed to me as the next guy.

Edited by RockRaines

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 02:56 AM)
Thank you . This needed to be said in the worst way. Now if someone can take all of Rock's recent posts and tell me he was spot on in the Sox acquisitions then keep jumping on his bandwagon. No disrespect meant.

 

wow, .

Edited by LDF

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I've found that Rock (and bucket for that matter) has been pretty accurate with what he shares. Inside information doesn't mean 100% correct information all of the time. I certainly appreciate any and all tidbits. I think in this case, he was saying that he expects the Sox to make another move or two. Based on what Hahn has said, I think we can all agree that they are still trying to fill a couple more holes, and that's what I took from Rock's comment here.

 

All that being said, I hope that if the Sox only make one more move it's more a better option in the outfield. We keep saying to give Viciedo one more chance, one more year, but we see the same results every year (minus a couple weeks where he shows flashes of what could be). I don't want the Sox to make a move just to make a move, but I'd really like to see the LF position improved.

 

The team has been improved dramatically this off season, and if we go into the season with the way the team is contructed now, they'll have a better chance at the division. But one or two more moves could make them the favorites.

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QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 12:14 PM)
I've found that Rock (and bucket for that matter) has been pretty accurate with what he shares. Inside information doesn't mean 100% correct information all of the time. I certainly appreciate any and all tidbits. I think in this case, he was saying that he expects the Sox to make another move or two. Based on what Hahn has said, I think we can all agree that they are still trying to fill a couple more holes, and that's what I took from Rock's comment here.

 

All that being said, I hope that if the Sox only make one more move it's more a better option in the outfield. We keep saying to give Viciedo one more chance, one more year, but we see the same results every year (minus a couple weeks where he shows flashes of what could be). I don't want the Sox to make a move just to make a move, but I'd really like to see the LF position improved.

 

The team has been improved dramatically this off season, and if we go into the season with the way the team is contructed now, they'll have a better chance at the division. But one or two more moves could make them the favorites.

 

i deleted my post before, b/c i didn't want to be a jerk. i agree with an earlier statement. i will

leave it at that. i respect those who is not afraid to state their mind.

 

now back to sox baseball. i too agree about trading DV for anything. i know, i am flopping around

like a dang fish out of the water here. i was really excited about the offseason that Hahn has

done. now i will go back to what iwas saying last yr.. 20 hrs is a nice stat. even thou he can

really do to help himself at the plate. maybe, just maybe DV will listen and work with the coaches

and work on each single pitch, instead of swinging at everything.

 

with the trade that Det did, i really think that AL central is the sox to loose. i wish i was back in

chi, i would buy season ticket again. this is going to be a fun season.

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