flavum Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Per his agent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Glad to hear it is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Per his agent By my calculations, that puts 2015 payroll at $115.7225 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That is almost $600k more than the MLBTR estimate, and they are usually pretty close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 12:25 PM) That is almost $600k more than the MLBTR estimate, and they are usually pretty close. Maybe he got a little bonus for a strong finish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ugh. Tyler Flowers sucks. I wish we could've put someone more consistent behind the plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 12:26 PM) Ugh. Tyler Flowers sucks. I wish we could've put someone more consistent behind the plate. Flowers isn't great, but neither is the vast majority of all major league catchers. For the price, it ain't bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 WAR sometimes doesn't agree with the eye test, but FWIW, Flowers had a 2.3 bWAR and 1.8 fWAR last year, so he's considered to be a league average catcher. $2.7 mil for a $10 mil value ain't bad at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:46 PM) Flowers isn't great, but neither is the vast majority of all major league catchers. For the price, it ain't bad. He's below average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:12 PM) WAR sometimes doesn't agree with the eye test, but FWIW, Flowers had a 2.3 bWAR and 1.8 fWAR last year, so he's considered to be a league average catcher. $2.7 mil for a $10 mil value ain't bad at all. Not a league average CATCHER, but a league average PLAYER. There's a huge positional adjustment for catchers, which makes a mediocre catcher a more valuable player than a mediocre guy at almost every other position. He ranks #20 for catchers. So Flowers, on the strength of a BABIP and HR/FB rate that are well into the range of unsustainable, ended up approximating a league average player. There's no reason to believe he'll do that again, and even if he did, he'd still be a below average catcher. Edited January 16, 2015 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Luckily, nobody thinks he's going to be very good. We just feel pretty certain he won't be 2012 Brent Morel kind of bad, which is nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:24 PM) Luckily, nobody thinks he's going to be very good. We just feel pretty certain he won't be 2012 Brent Morel kind of bad, which is nice. 11 wRC+, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:22 PM) Not a league average CATCHER, but a league average PLAYER. There's a huge positional adjustment for catchers, which makes a mediocre catcher a more valuable player than a mediocre guy at almost every other position. He ranks #20 for catchers. So Flowers, on the strength of a BABIP and HR/FB rate that are well into the range of unsustainable, ended up approximating a league average player. There's no reason to believe he'll do that again, and even if he did, he'd still be a below average catcher. FWIW, that BABIP didn't come out of nowhere. He drastically increased his LD% and GB%. His HR/FB% wasn't too terribly far off career norms, either. He definitely looked lucky a lot, but I wouldn't want to suggest that the only difference between 2013 and 2014 Flowers was luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 (edited) Way more than he is worth. 1.6 mil would be about the top for him. Edited January 16, 2015 by Soxfest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:27 PM) FWIW, that BABIP didn't come out of nowhere. He drastically increased his LD% and GB%. His HR/FB% wasn't too terribly far off career norms, either. He definitely looked lucky a lot, but I wouldn't want to suggest that the only difference between 2013 and 2014 Flowers was luck. LD% is crazy volatile though, which is a big part of the reason that BABIP is volatile. His career HR/FB is 3% lower, which I think is definitely significant especially when you consider that the 21.1% had to have brought that up quite a bit. Also, it's easier to believe in HR/FB jumps if a guy has made a change to try to swing for the fences, but Flowers' actually had a higher-than-normal GB% too, which means the change in rate is extra strange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:34 PM) Way more than he is worth. 1.6 mil would be about the top for him. I mean the salary is fine -- he's a decent backup catcher who just happens to be starting for us. I'm just arguing that he's a weakness. I know we can't expect Hahn to fix literally everything in a single offseason, I just want to make clear that C IS a hole on the current team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:36 PM) LD% is crazy volatile though, which is a big part of the reason that BABIP is volatile. His career HR/FB is 3% lower, which I think is definitely significant especially when you consider that the 21.1% had to have brought that up quite a bit. Also, it's easier to believe in HR/FB jumps if a guy has made a change to try to swing for the fences, but Flowers' actually had a higher-than-normal GB% too, which means the change in rate is extra strange. His career HR/FB if you strip out 2014 is 16.3%, which would have given him 12 homers instead of 15 last year. Somewhat significant but not very. ZiPS has him hitting 13 next year in about 100 fewer PA's. ZiPS also has him at a nearly identical wOBA as 2014 - .310 compared to .308. His season was really strange. The BABIP is driven up by all the 48-hoppers through the infield early on. Then he hit that horrible slump, and then he put on a power show in the second half. Look at his ISO by half - .086, .273. Or GB/FB by half - 2.27, 1.03. A lot of that fluctuation is SSS, but how do you know he didn't make a change? Put it all together and I don't think a 90-95 wRC+ is unreasonable to expect. I'd be surprised if it's lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:34 PM) Way more than he is worth. 1.6 mil would be about the top for him. Curious how you came up with that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:55 PM) His career HR/FB if you strip out 2014 is 16.3%, which would have given him 12 homers instead of 15 last year. Somewhat significant but not very. ZiPS has him hitting 13 next year in about 100 fewer PA's. ZiPS also has him at a nearly identical wOBA as 2014 - .310 compared to .308. His season was really strange. The BABIP is driven up by all the 48-hoppers through the infield early on. Then he hit that horrible slump, and then he put on a power show in the second half. Look at his ISO by half - .086, .273. Or GB/FB by half - 2.27, 1.03. A lot of that fluctuation is SSS, but how do you know he didn't make a change? Put it all together and I don't think a 90-95 wRC+ is unreasonable to expect. I'd be surprised if it's lower. If we assume everybody who has a hot month "made a change," we're going to be wrong practically every time. The better question to ask is: "do we have any reason to believe he DID make a change?" Because history shows us that month-over-month performance is frequently all over the place for all players. The normal effect is that he'd be inconsistent. Also, I disagree that 12 vs 15 homers is insignificant. the wOBA constant for a homer was 2.135 runs last year, so those three extra homers were worth 6.405 runs, or roughly two thirds of a win. Without those homers, he had a 1.2 fWAR season, which is suddenly NOT within earshot of a league average season. Still well worth $2m, but not starting-catcher-on-a-contender material. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tyler Flowers, September: 43 PAs, .268/.302/.683/.985, 11 H (4 1B, 2 2B, 5 HR), 1 HBP, 1 BB, 18 K, 1.43 GB/FB, 71.4% HR/FB Bolded for emphasis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:05 PM) If we assume everybody who has a hot month "made a change," we're going to be wrong practically every time. The better question to ask is: "do we have any reason to believe he DID make a change?" Because history shows us that month-over-month performance is frequently all over the place for all players. The normal effect is that he'd be inconsistent. Also, I disagree that 12 vs 15 homers is insignificant. the wOBA constant for a homer was 2.135 runs last year, so those three extra homers were worth 6.405 runs, or roughly two thirds of a win. Without those homers, he had a 1.2 fWAR season, which is suddenly NOT within earshot of a league average season. Still well worth $2m, but not starting-catcher-on-a-contender material. Those flies could also become doubles, which adds about a half run back on (1.283 double constant * .126 league fly ball BABIP * 3 = .485; I'm assuming the type of flies that affect HR/FB rate would turn into doubles far more often than singles). I cited GB/FB rate by half as evidence that perhaps he changed his approach. Unless a 95 wRC+ from him next year would shock you, I don't think we even disagree by much here. Lemme put it this way - I'll live with 1 WAR because Flowers is about 20th on my list of things that will make or break the Sox. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:23 PM) Tyler Flowers, September: 43 PAs, .268/.302/.683/.985, 11 H (4 1B, 2 2B, 5 HR), 1 HBP, 1 BB, 18 K, 1.43 GB/FB, 71.4% HR/FB Bolded for emphasis. I'm not expecting him to repeat a .401 OPS June either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvjeremylv Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:55 PM) Curious how you came up with that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:38 PM) I mean the salary is fine -- he's a decent backup catcher who just happens to be starting for us. I'm just arguing that he's a weakness. I know we can't expect Hahn to fix literally everything in a single offseason, I just want to make clear that C IS a hole on the current team. World Champion A.J. Pierzynski: 2005 WAR 1.8 Tyler Flowers : 2014 WAR 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 04:23 PM) Tyler Flowers, September: 43 PAs, .268/.302/.683/.985, 11 H (4 1B, 2 2B, 5 HR), 1 HBP, 1 BB, 18 K, 1.43 GB/FB, 71.4% HR/FB Bolded for emphasis. Tyler Flowers, June: 76 PAs .129/.187/.214/ .401 15 OPS+ .206 BABIP Sometimes he was lucky, sometimes he was unlucky, it all averages out to a Tyler Flowersy .700 OPS roughly. That doesn't seem unreasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 17, 2015 -> 04:23 AM) World Champion A.J. Pierzynski: 2005 WAR 1.8 Tyler Flowers : 2014 WAR 1.8 Do you really believe WAR is that accurate for catchers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.