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Chicago Mayoral Race Predictions

Guess Rahm's share of the vote!  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What percentage of the vote do you think Rahm Emmanuel will receive in Tuesday's election?

    • <45.9%
      2
    • 46-47.9
      1
    • 48-49.9
      0
    • 50.1-52
      1
    • 52.1-53.9
      3
    • 54-55.9
      0
    • >56%
      8


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Who do you think is going to win, and what do you think the margin will be?

 

I'm guessing the polls will be off, but not enough to throw the race to Chuy.

 

53-47 Rahm

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I say at least 60/40 Rahm. I think people are realizing that while Rahm has his issues, Garcia is a man without a plan.

 

I cannot trust someone who says "just elect me and then I will figure things out." Rahm may be an asshole, arrogant and all that, but I think he has Chicago trending in the right direction.

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This is slightly off-track, but germane to this discussion.

 

I've always thought Cook County should be split into three parts. One would be the city of Chicago, that would have a single unified city-county government, a la Indianapolis and Louisville.

 

The other two counties would have a dividing line roughly along the Ike. The third largest city in the nation, already with a mayor and 50 aldermen, doesn't need a county government on top of that.

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QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Apr 7, 2015 -> 05:23 AM)
I say at least 60/40 Rahm. I think people are realizing that while Rahm has his issues, Garcia is a man without a plan.

 

I cannot trust someone who says "just elect me and then I will figure things out." Rahm may be an asshole, arrogant and all that, but I think he has Chicago trending in the right direction.

 

I agree. I mostly wanted run-off to show how weak Rahm is. Chuy is just not a good candidate. His success is almost entirely due to anti-rahm sentiment. Now that people know the mayoral seat is winnable, I expect a better race next time.

 

But regardless, the next 3-6 years in Chicago are going to be painful. I wish we'd just get it out of the way while economy is somewhat chugging along.

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Also, congrats to everyone who voted today. Fun voting experience being in and out in 5 minutes.

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Also, congrats to everyone who voted today. Fun voting experience being in and out in 5 minutes.

 

Common complaint from my wife.

 

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QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 7, 2015 -> 11:01 PM)
I can't believe the people of Chicago gave Rahm another 4 years.

 

I can when there was no real alternative.

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QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 7, 2015 -> 11:01 PM)
I can't believe the people of Chicago gave Rahm another 4 years.

 

This is a city that gave Daleys' somewhere close to 50 years.

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6 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Well this oughta get interesting. 

There was no way I was going to vote for Rahm anyways. But there is no one else I want to vote for yet either.

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Ordinarily I would have asked when he was getting indicted, but to be fair to Rahm, but the Daley's left Chicago a raging dumpster fire with no real hope of recovery in any sort of short or middle time frames.  This is one job I can't understand why people are lining up to run for.  What a mess.

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23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Ordinarily I would have asked when he was getting indicted, but to be fair to Rahm, but the Daley's left Chicago a raging dumpster fire with no real hope of recovery in any sort of short or middle time frames.  This is one job I can't understand why people are lining up to run for.  What a mess.

My guess is he left because of polling. He did go to runoff last time.

He also has not even tried to be a public facing mayor and chicago probably needs one.

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Just now, bmags said:

My guess is he left because of polling. He did go to runoff last time.

He also has not even tried to be a public facing mayor and chicago probably needs one.

That's where both the Daley's were great.  People LOVED them, despite the results to almost a Trump-esque level of obliviousness to what the reality on the ground actually was.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's where both the Daley's were great.  People LOVED them, despite the results to almost a Trump-esque level of obliviousness to what the reality on the ground actually was.

Incredibly stupid men that were very good at keeping their friends happy. 

Like Daley, we will remember Rahm for some decent public greenspace surrounded by the blood of kkds and crumbling institutions.

Rahm of course did have a harder road ahead, doubled by much more difficult state politics, but still these years were a failure.

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11 minutes ago, bmags said:

Incredibly stupid men that were very good at keeping their friends happy. 

Like Daley, we will remember Rahm for some decent public greenspace surrounded by the blood of kkds and crumbling institutions.

Rahm of course did have a harder road ahead, doubled by much more difficult state politics, but still these years were a failure.

I met the younger Daley quite a few times (and his brother) who came out to play the golf course I worked at while I was in HS.  Richie had the ability to make someone feel important even if they were nobody.  He'd remember details from a previous conversation (even if a was a two minute talk a year ago) and how to put people into a comfort zone like only one other person I have seen in person before (Bill Clinton).  He was a master at working at room on a person by person basis.  It took me a long time to get past those interactions to see what they (his administration) did to Chicago.  My guess is that by his 80% electoral returns is that I wasn't alone.

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That's about the extent of my knowledge of the first Daley admin, just a vague idea that general consensus was he was "okay" but not really based on anything. Growing up with Daley the younger, I remember a lot more of his problems and failings.

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3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

That's about the extent of my knowledge of the first Daley admin, just a vague idea that general consensus was he was "okay" but not really based on anything. Growing up with Daley the younger, I remember a lot more of his problems and failings.

There are some things that are legitimately are more possible because of a machine system ("the city that works"), but a side effect of that is brutally undermining the minority communities through restricting their access for any real representation.

Many of the post-war urban renewal policies of the state and city provided more power for eminent domain. Some of those projects we may appreciate today (UIC campus), but came at the cost of displacing many, many people and further entrenching segregation in the city.

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