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The case for drafting Aiken or Matuella

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As a kick-off for our pre-draft coverage, Quniarvy makes the case for why the White Sox should maybe draft Brady Aiken or Mike Matuella. Here's the story.

 

What do you all think?

 

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Kiley McDaniel has reported there are two teams with a high pick that refuse to draft a pitcher coming off a serious injury. It wouldn't shock me if the Sox were one of them.

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Great work, Dan. Very good piece. I keep hoping some hitter will emerge for Sox at # 8.

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QUOTE (fathom @ May 21, 2015 -> 08:44 PM)
Kiley McDaniel has reported there are two teams with a high pick that refuse to draft a pitcher coming off a serious injury. It wouldn't shock me if the Sox were one of them.

 

I'd guess the Sox were one as well, though I'd hope they'd ask Herm and Coop whether or not they think either pitcher could come back healthy.

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Supposedly Coop loved Aiken last year, but that could have been a lot of misdirection.

 

Picking 8th without a pick for a while after that, you would really have to be sure either of these guys will be fine in the long run. Of course the guy you draft might have the same thing happen a week after he signs.

 

If the Sox were drafting lower, I think taking one of these guys would be a no brainer, but right now there seems to be a good shot at a quality healthy player. I hope they get Fulmer myself.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 22, 2015 -> 08:11 AM)
Supposedly Coop loved Aiken last year, but that could have been a lot of misdirection.

 

Picking 8th without a pick for a while after that, you would really have to be sure either of these guys will be fine in the long run. Of course the guy you draft might have the same thing happen a week after he signs.

 

If the Sox were drafting lower, I think taking one of these guys would be a no brainer, but right now there seems to be a good shot at a quality healthy player. I hope they get Fulmer myself.

 

Dick, I agree with you completely. Fulmer and Jay all day for me.

 

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ May 22, 2015 -> 12:19 PM)
I am 100% on board for taking Aiken.

 

If we picked lower in round 1 I would, but not at 8.

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Question about the draft. The sox will have enough extra cash to sign a guy in the 4th round to a low 1st round pick slot value. Can the sox make an agreement with a player to pay him the large signing bonus if he tells other teams he won't commit if they draft him? Telling an early 2nd rounder they will give him 1st round slot value if he tells other teams he won't sign and goes to the sox in the fourth.

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If the Sox could save say a million dollars on this pick, I would be all for it.

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Aiken has no incentive to sign for any less than full slot and really not much incentive to sign anywhere if drafted this season. He could go to college for a couple years rehab and have a much better shot at getting back to the top of the draft. I like the concept of drafting a high end talent for less as the Nats did with Giolito, but I don't think it is a fit with where the Sox are picking. I also would not mind seeing the Sox draft someone that they cannot sign as will give the team a lot of flexibility to make an impact in next years draft which is thought to be a lot better.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:35 AM)
Aiken has no incentive to sign for any less than full slot and really not much incentive to sign anywhere if drafted this season. He could go to college for a couple years rehab and have a much better shot at getting back to the top of the draft. I like the concept of drafting a high end talent for less as the Nats did with Giolito, but I don't think it is a fit with where the Sox are picking. I also would not mind seeing the Sox draft someone that they cannot sign as will give the team a lot of flexibility to make an impact in next years draft which is thought to be a lot better.

 

This incentive for Aiken is to not fall down even further and not even be able to get the reduced number the White Sox could offer. Sox have a draft slot of $3.74 million. If the Sox were to offer say $2.5 million and save about a million dollars for later picks, If Aiken were to fall further than #16, his slot number would fall under $2.5 million. If you offer $3 million, the top team with a $3 million slot is #12. The latest BA mock draft has Aiken falling to #24 to the Dodgers who have a slot of just under $2.1 million.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:53 AM)
This incentive for Aiken is to not fall down even further and not even be able to get the reduced number the White Sox could offer. Sox have a draft slot of $3.74 million. If the Sox were to offer say $2.5 million and save about a million dollars for later picks, If Aiken were to fall further than #16, his slot number would fall under $2.5 million. If you offer $3 million, the top team with a $3 million slot is #12. The latest BA mock draft has Aiken falling to #24 to the Dodgers who have a slot of just under $2.1 million.

 

And then he just doesn't sign. Based on what transpired last season, I don't see him taking a discount to go anywhere. He could go to UCLA next year, sit out the season rehabbing, and then enter the draft the following season after building his value back up. Jeff Hoffman had a lot less leverage last year and still signed for slot.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:03 AM)
And then he just doesn't sign. Based on what transpired last season, I don't see him taking a discount to go anywhere. He could go to UCLA next year, sit out the season rehabbing, and then enter the draft the following season after building his value back up. Jeff Hoffman had a lot less leverage last year and still signed for slot.

 

He already gave up $5 million. If he passes on money again, who knows what his next chance looks like, especially post surgery.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:03 AM)
And then he just doesn't sign. Based on what transpired last season, I don't see him taking a discount to go anywhere. He could go to UCLA next year, sit out the season rehabbing, and then enter the draft the following season after building his value back up. Jeff Hoffman had a lot less leverage last year and still signed for slot.

 

If he goes to UCLA he can't be drafted for the next three years.

 

He runs the risk of becoming Matt Harrington. That's what he is leaving behind.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:03 AM)
And then he just doesn't sign. Based on what transpired last season, I don't see him taking a discount to go anywhere. He could go to UCLA next year, sit out the season rehabbing, and then enter the draft the following season after building his value back up. Jeff Hoffman had a lot less leverage last year and still signed for slot.

 

 

Doesn't he have to go to UCLA for 3 years then? He'll take the money now. There is no reason to go back to school, pitch for free and risk injuring yourself again. Playing sports for free is dumb.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:24 AM)
Doesn't he have to go to UCLA for 3 years then? He'll take the money now. There is no reason to go back to school, pitch for free and risk injuring yourself again. Playing sports for free is dumb.

 

Indeed he does, which is why he went to the IMG Academy.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:30 AM)
I think it's all moot until Aiken's camp releases a health update. People are getting a little too giddy over the success of Giolito and the potential of Jeff Hoffman. Both Aiken and Matuella have unique and potentially more damning injuries.

 

This is 100% true. A drafting would be contingent on two things. The Sox medical team being happy with his reports, and then The Don Cooper not only approving of his motion and delivery, along with talking to the kid and giving his thumbs up.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:39 AM)
This is 100% true. A drafting would be contingent on two things. The Sox medical team being happy with his reports, and then The Don Cooper not only approving of his motion and delivery, along with talking to the kid and giving his thumbs up.

 

Agreed on all points.

 

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:24 AM)
Doesn't he have to go to UCLA for 3 years then? He'll take the money now. There is no reason to go back to school, pitch for free and risk injuring yourself again. Playing sports for free is dumb.

 

Except he just did it. Yes if he went to UCLA he would have to stay for three years now, I thought he was older than he is as he won't turn 19 until August, and you cannot enter the draft until you are 21 to be a draft eligible sophomore. But he can do the same thing at a juco. He may be inclined to stop the bleeding by taking a deal now, but based on everything that I have seen from his camp thus far, he will not be taking any discounts because they believe he is worth top flight money. Based on the Houston situation last season, a team only needs to offer 40% of slot value for a player that is injured to receive compensation if the pick does not sign. I would be all for making Aiken an offer of $1,389,000 and letting him take it or leave it, I just really expect him to leave it. Which I would totally be fine with because next years draft class is going to be much better.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 26, 2015 -> 03:35 PM)
Except he just did it. Yes if he went to UCLA he would have to stay for three years now, I thought he was older than he is as he won't turn 19 until August, and you cannot enter the draft until you are 21 to be a draft eligible sophomore. But he can do the same thing at a juco. He may be inclined to stop the bleeding by taking a deal now, but based on everything that I have seen from his camp thus far, he will not be taking any discounts because they believe he is worth top flight money. Based on the Houston situation last season, a team only needs to offer 40% of slot value for a player that is injured to receive compensation if the pick does not sign. I would be all for making Aiken an offer of $1,389,000 and letting him take it or leave it, I just really expect him to leave it. Which I would totally be fine with because next years draft class is going to be much better.

 

Matt. Harrington.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ May 26, 2015 -> 04:01 PM)
Matt. Harrington.

 

Yeah, doing it once is really risky and Brady Aiken just lived a worst case scenario happening to him. Is he willing to risk it again? If he were, I would imagine he would have told teams not to draft him, that he was going to go the college and play instead.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:01 PM)
Matt. Harrington.

 

wow, excellent. a blast from the past.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:04 PM)
Yeah, doing it once is really risky and Brady Aiken just lived a worst case scenario happening to him. Is he willing to risk it again? If he were, I would imagine he would have told teams not to draft him, that he was going to go the college and play instead.

 

if he has faith in himself and the medicals, why not. the difference is millions of dollars.

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QUOTE (LDF @ May 26, 2015 -> 04:14 PM)
if he has faith in himself and the medicals, why not. the difference is millions of dollars.

 

Or nothing at all.

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