Optimistic view of 2016

[caulfield12]

The White Sox obviously have to improve at 3B, SS, C and add a younger/cost-controlled starting pitcher (see below)...assuming we won't just dump Cabrera or LaRoche.

 

We have roughly 4-5 assets to get that done:

 

1) Samardzija, you either trade him for the highest possible return (addressing at least one of the four areas listed above)...or then offer him the QO and you might end up with a motivated #3 starter for next season pitching for a long-term contract (of course, that's what he is theoretically doing THIS season).

 

Worst-case scenario is the draft pick, best is trading him in June/July.

 

2) Quintana....there's simply no choice here, you're going to have to trade young pitching to get MULTIPLE position players back and bring the offense and defense closer to league average/statistical mean. He's the only logical pitcher to trade, unless the return for Sale is so overwhelming that it makes more sense to deal him (which has often been stated is virtually impossible).

 

3) Ramirez...hope he improves offensively and defensively over the next 6 weeks to where you can get a decent return for him...play Sanchez/Leury/Saladino there in the second half.

 

4) Putnam, Duke or Petricka....see if any of the 15-18 teams competing around the majors will give you a "sell high" return on one of them, especially Putnam or Petricka...this is the one area of the team easiest to replace and the most expendable if we're transitioning into a 2 month "losing period" where we essentially are playing for a high draft pick again without announcing it

 

 

 

Now, there's the BRIGHT SIDE.

 

1) You have replaced 3B, SS and catcher, as well as discovered a young, cost-controlled 4th starter.

(You MIGHT have Samardzija as a motivated/more dedicated and committed #3 on a one year deal but unlikely.)

 

2) You're betting on offensive improvements from Abreu, Eaton, LaRoche and Melky Cabrera. That's reasonable. Progression out of Eaton and Avisail Garcia.

 

3) You have a rotation of:

 

Sale

Rodon

??? or Samardzija

#4 acquired above

Danks

 

However, by June or July next year, you can add Fulmer.

 

That leaves you:

 

Sale

Rodon

Fulmer

#4 acquired above

Danks/Montas/Danish/Beck/E. Johnson

 

It would be really exciting to see all the youngsters fighting for a pennant race and injected onto the major league roster like we saw in 2012 when we used something like 12 rookie pitchers. MAKE DON COOPER EARN HIS MONEY, haha.

 

 

4) Along with this plan, the creation of a "super bullpen" for 2016, built around Robertson and the 1-2 relievers (Petricka/Putnam/Duke) you don't trade to improve the offense/defense.

 

To this, you can add (and one of these four will probably take Danks' spot):

 

Montas throwing 90 MPH split-finger changes

Danish's weird angles and higher velocity out of the pen

Beck

Erik Johnson

Blake Hickman (University of Iowa...will max out his stuff as a reliever)

Nolan Sanburn

 

Nate Jones or Jesse Crain

 

Another Top 3-7 draft pick in June, 2016 (which can also be used for a major league ready hitter in a deeper draft class)

 

 

5) Depending on how things go with the new SS, you have Tim Anderson knocking on the door at either SS, 2B or LF/RF.

 

You have Trayce Thompson or Courtney Hawkins pushing for playing time (maybe they'll have to cut bait on Cabrera, although that will be an expensive pill to swallow).

 

You have Micah Johnson with another year to develop at 2B, and/or Anderson (depending on what happens at SS).

 

You have the time to experiment with Leury Garcia, Saladino, Micah and Sanchez in the 2nd half of 2015.

 

 

6) Conor becomes a bench guy (3B/1B/DH/ph)

 

 

 

 

Obviously, this whole idea relies on a LOT of things breaking right. The trades outlined above. The continued development of the young starting pitchers, in particular, Carson Fulmer and Rodon. You're dealing with innings limits on Fulmer. You're counting on at least Anderson and Micah Johnson, and perhaps Hawkins and/or Trayce Thompson to make an impact. But it's probably the most realistic way of competing in the 2nd half of 2016 and then into 2017 and 2018 without dealing Abreu or Sale and totally starting over from scratch.

 

A lot of posters are going to disagree with the trading away of Quintana, and we might not even find the right offer/s, but I think it's the best possible card to play....knowing we're going to have limited payroll flexibility, and that's assuming all those guys like Bonifacio, Beckham, Ramirez, Flowers, etc., are gone.

Edited June 14, 2015 by caulfield12

[fathom]

If that's optimism, I'd hate to see what a pessimistic view would be be like.

Edited June 14, 2015 by fathom

[caulfield12]

If that's optimism, I'd hate to see what a pessimistic view would be be like.

 

 

Do you see any other way to turn around the worst offense/defense in baseball without trading away pitching?

 

It's certainly not going out and signing Upton, Heyward and Alex Gordon.

Edited June 14, 2015 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Do you see any other way to turn around the worst offense/defense in baseball without trading away pitching?

 

It's certainly not going out and signing Upton, Heyward and Alex Gordon.

 

yes, you start in the off season by promoting RV and get a better coach.

 

there is a reason this team has abandon the coaches. this one time tells the story, Hahn and staff had to talk to RV and explain certain things for him to do. ummmm now you tell me i am exaggerating.

[Soxfest]

IF KW is involved it will all go to s*** anyway. If he is gone that would be GREAT!

[daggins]

Far too optimistic IMO, trading Quintana is almost a necessity as you say, but I think the toll on the rotation will be greater than you state. I also am not sure how much of a return he would bring given his "underrated" status.

[caulfield12]

Far too optimistic IMO, trading Quintana is almost a necessity as you say, but I think the toll on the rotation will be greater than you state. I also am not sure how much of a return he would bring given his "underrated" status.

 

 

Therein lies the problem.

 

Are you able to sell Quintana based on his 2012-2014 track record or the slightly lesser versions of him (and Samardzija) that have been partially brought about by especially terrible White Sox defense this season?

 

If you can sell that he's the right fit for a contending team with the other peripheral numbers (FIP or DIP, for example), but are you really going to get the players you need at perhaps the three most offensively challenged positions in baseball in 3B, middle infield (SS) and catcher?

 

I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult to put together a highlight reel showing how a decent percentage of his earned runs that/which shouldn't even be credited to him due to mental and physical mistakes, "home cooking" road scorekeeping, balls dropping in without being touched or runners pushed into scoring position when they should have been held at 1B, poor throwing from Flowers/Soto allowing runners to advance to 2nd or 3rd base on steals, etc. Also worth noting is that the White Sox bullpen has allowed 35% of inherited runners to score, which also has to be in the bottom 3-5 teams in MLB.

 

In other words, he's essentially the same Quintana, it's just that the White Sox have played brutal baseball behind him...and that any team with a good offense could help him to kick it back into another gear mentally, knowing he wouldn't have to pitch a game where he only gave up a couple of runs in order to be in a position to win it. Forced to pitch too "fine," as they would argue, out of fear of making mistakes rather than pitching aggressively knowing you have the defense and offense to back it up.

 

Edited June 15, 2015 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Does anyone really believe the front office is going to reverse course after what they've said the last two months and put all the blame back on Ventura and the coaching staff...arguing instead that the team will experience a 2012-like turnaround just by changing the entire on-field staff next offseason?

 

That would be a bold move, but would JR sign off on abandoning those lifetime Sox guys....especially after the Bulls'/Thibodeaux/Hoiberg fiasco?

[LDF]

Therein lies the problem.

 

Are you able to sell Quintana based on his 2012-2014 track record or the slightly lesser versions of him (and Samardzija) that have been partially brought about by especially terrible White Sox defense this season?

 

If you can sell that he's the right fit for a contending team with the other peripheral numbers (FIP or DIP, for example), but are you really going to get the players you need at perhaps the three most offensively challenged positions in baseball in 3B, middle infield (SS) and catcher?

 

I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult to put together a highlight reel showing how a decent percentage of his earned runs that/which shouldn't even be credited to him due to mental and physical mistakes, "home cooking" road scorekeeping, balls dropping in without being touched or runners pushed into scoring position when they should have been held at 1B, poor throwing from Flowers/Soto allowing runners to advance to 2nd or 3rd base on steals, etc. Also worth noting is that the White Sox bullpen has allowed 35% of inherited runners to score, which also has to be in the bottom 3-5 teams in MLB.

 

In other words, he's essentially the same Quintana, it's just that the White Sox have played brutal baseball behind him...and that any team with a good offense could help him to kick it back into another gear mentally, knowing he wouldn't have to pitch a game where he only gave up a couple of runs in order to be in a position to win it. Forced to pitch too "fine," as they would argue, out of fear of making mistakes rather than pitching aggressively knowing you have the defense and offense to back it up.

 

the sox will not need to sell anything, all of the other teams who wants to make a trade will do their due diligence in do their own investigation.

 

the only thing i know is the other team will come in and try to low ball the bid.

[elrockinMT]

Do you see any other way to turn around the worst offense/defense in baseball without trading away pitching?

 

It's certainly not going out and signing Upton, Heyward and Alex Gordon.

 

Pitching is the name of the game. By trading away your good solid pitchers you open a big hole. If we decide to upgrade our #5 starter it might better be through free agency signing. Yes we have to upgrade in the some positions and maybe catcher is #1 followed by 3B. I wonder if Adrian Beltre might be available soon from Texas if they decide to go with Gallo full-time?

[Balta1701]

Pitching is the name of the game. By trading away your good solid pitchers you open a big hole. If we decide to upgrade our #5 starter it might better be through free agency signing. Yes we have to upgrade in the some positions and maybe catcher is #1 followed by 3B. I wonder if Adrian Beltre might be available soon from Texas if they decide to go with Gallo full-time?

Here's the problem with that statement...where exactly are we going to get position players otherwise? We're regularly drafting pitchers at the top of our draft. We traded away position players to get a pitcher this year. When we sign position players we are spending high dollar amounts to get guys towards the end of their career. We keep saying "draft and develop pitching and trade it for hitting". Don't we actually have to do that at some point?

 

Put it this way..."Pitching is the name of the game". The White Sox have the lowest offensive WAR in MLB over the last 10 years and are right at the top in pitching fWAR (3rd). That has translated to a below .500 record.

 

Pitching is important but it can't be the only part of the game. We aren't winning by signing veterans to plug holes and developing no offensive talent despite our regularly great pitching.

[Dick Allen]

Here's the problem with that statement...where exactly are we going to get position players otherwise? We're regularly drafting pitchers at the top of our draft. We traded away position players to get a pitcher this year. When we sign position players we are spending high dollar amounts to get guys towards the end of their career. We keep saying "draft and develop pitching and trade it for hitting". Don't we actually have to do that at some point?

 

Put it this way..."Pitching is the name of the game". The White Sox have the lowest offensive WAR in MLB over the last 10 years and are right at the top in pitching fWAR (3rd). That has translated to a below .500 record.

 

Pitching is important but it can't be the only part of the game. We aren't winning by signing veterans to plug holes and developing no offensive talent despite our regularly great pitching.

So the pitching has been great 2013,2014, and 2015? 2015 13th, 2014 13th, 2013 9th. I would venture to guess the pitching was awful in 2007 as well, 12th out of 14. Those are the years the team was totally dreadful, which accounts for the below .500 record since winning the WS. People don't like trading prospects for hitters because too many people think guys like Montas will be stars, when, in reality, the odds are still against him. I'd hang on to Q. Trade Montas and Danish for hitters. If they are thought of anywhere near where some have placed them on this site, there should be plenty of offense coming back. That, and some bounce back from guys who have struggled. I am not talking Tyler Flowers. I think he is what he is, but realistically, Melky is a better offensive player. Eaton is a better offensive player. So is Alexei. Sanchez can't be as bad as he's been. Abreu should do better. LaRoche should hit some more home runs. I'm as sick of watching 1 or 2 runs scored as much as anyone. But this team will hit better. Whether that is this week, next month, in August or next season, they are better than they have shown.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Dick Allen

[OmarComing25]

It's just so maddening that our offense is so bad when it was above average last year, and that was with Avi hurt all year and De Aza and Viciedo getting a lot of playing time. Literally everyone except Avi (who is slumping lately) has taken a big step back this season compared to 2014. The frustrating thing is that if all our guys were even 90% of what they were last season our offense wouldn't be that bad. Did everyone just play over their head last year? I don't think so. But I thought we'd be seeing some positive regression by now and we haven't.

[ChiSox59]

Let's see how the next 25 games go.

[flavum]

Let's see how the next 25 games go.

 

26 games til the break. I'll say 11-15, and 39-48 overall.

[Balta1701]

So the pitching has been great 2013,2014, and 2015? 2015 13th, 2014 13th, 2013 9th. I would venture to guess the pitching was awful in 2007 as well, 12th out of 14. Those are the years the team was totally dreadful, which accounts for the below .500 record since winning the WS. People don't like trading prospects for hitters because too many people think guys like Montas will be stars, when, in reality, the odds are still against him. I'd hang on to Q. Trade Montas and Danish for hitters. If they are thought of anywhere near where some have placed them on this site, there should be plenty of offense coming back. That, and some bounce back from guys who have struggled. I am not talking Tyler Flowers. I think he is what he is, but realistically, Melky is a better offensive player. Eaton is a better offensive player. So is Alexei. Sanchez can't be as bad as he's been. Abreu should do better. LaRoche should hit some more home runs. I'm as sick of watching 1 or 2 runs scored as much as anyone. But this team will hit better. Whether that is this week, next month, in August or next season, they are better than they have shown.

If we wait until "next season", LaRoche should be worse. So should Alexei, if he's even back at all (at the current pace he should not have his option picked up). Those guys are just old and so we should be expecting continued decline from them.

 

Danish and Montas could definitely be useful trade pieces, however they're still low enough in the system that the 2 of them together is only going to net 1 solid player, barring extremely amazing 2nd halves. So even if we assume that all the other guys you mentioned are really who we saw in 2014 and not who we saw in 2015, we still have a lineup chock full of holes. It's still a lineup that isn't going to compete with anyone unless Tyler Flowers, Carlos Sanchez, and Micah Johnson can come to its rescue, and that's in the "assume everything goes right" mode, which we should stop assuming because it doesn't happen.

 

If we're determined to compete next year somehow, then trading Montas and Danish almost seems like something we must do because otherwise there are just that many gaping holes, but even then it seems like that's not nearly enough.

 

[Balta1701]

It's just so maddening that our offense is so bad when it was above average last year, and that was with Avi hurt all year and De Aza and Viciedo getting a lot of playing time. Literally everyone except Avi (who is slumping lately) has taken a big step back this season compared to 2014. The frustrating thing is that if all our guys were even 90% of what they were last season our offense wouldn't be that bad. Did everyone just play over their head last year? I don't think so. But I thought we'd be seeing some positive regression by now and we haven't.

We were the 8th offense in the AL last year and scored fewer runs than average in the AL by a small amount. It wasn't "above average", it was average.

 

And it's certainly possible that Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu did play above their heads last year and we're suffering based on that today.

[chitownsportsfan]

Optimism?

 

At least one of these guys has a declinable option for '16:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=21,a

 

Seriously, you have to try very hard to pull a negative WAR in SS and CF as the positional adjustment alone almost guarantees any semi competent fielder will finish in positive territory. Of course, Ramirez and Eaton haven't been competent at all either in the field or at the plate.

 

The Cubs are looking to deal Castro. The Sox should be all over it. Trade from the pitching depth and get him. He's having an awful year, almost as bad as Alexei, but he's also 6 years younger and still fairly cheap.

Edited June 15, 2015 by chitownsportsfan

[southsider2k5]

Optimism?

 

At least one of these guys has a declinable option for '16:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=21,a

 

Seriously, you have to try very hard to pull a negative WAR in SS and CF as the positional adjustment alone almost guarantees any semi competent fielder will finish in positive territory. Of course, Ramirez and Eaton haven't been competent at all either in the field or at the plate.

 

The Cubs are looking to deal Castro. The Sox should be all over it. Trade from the pitching depth and get him. He's having an awful year, almost as bad as Alexei, but he's also 6 years younger and still fairly cheap.

 

Castro would fit right in with this team full of people who don't know how to mentally play the game.

[elrockinMT]

Here's the problem with that statement...where exactly are we going to get position players otherwise? We're regularly drafting pitchers at the top of our draft. We traded away position players to get a pitcher this year. When we sign position players we are spending high dollar amounts to get guys towards the end of their career. We keep saying "draft and develop pitching and trade it for hitting". Don't we actually have to do that at some point?

 

Put it this way..."Pitching is the name of the game". The White Sox have the lowest offensive WAR in MLB over the last 10 years and are right at the top in pitching fWAR (3rd). That has translated to a below .500 record.

 

Pitching is important but it can't be the only part of the game. We aren't winning by signing veterans to plug holes and developing no offensive talent despite our regularly great pitching.

 

 

There is an old adage in baseball, and I think it was from some owner in the days of Bill Veeck, who basically said you never trade a pitcher for a hitter because good pitching can defeat a good hitter every time. I still think you don't trade your better established pitchers. You want position players than you look at the free agent market. The idea of trading for prospects has not been real successful for the Sox. I had no real problem with Semien but his defense sucks so what do you gain? People already complain enough about our defense. I do agree that our offense and the team in general has not been good. But, the guys we picked up do have established track records. They might not be doing real well at this point in the season but they can still turn things around.

[SCCWS]

So the pitching has been great 2013,2014, and 2015? 2015 13th, 2014 13th, 2013 9th. I would venture to guess the pitching was awful in 2007 as well, 12th out of 14. Those are the years the team was totally dreadful, which accounts for the below .500 record since winning the WS. People don't like trading prospects for hitters because too many people think guys like Montas will be stars, when, in reality, the odds are still against him. I'd hang on to Q. Trade Montas and Danish for hitters. If they are thought of anywhere near where some have placed them on this site, there should be plenty of offense coming back. That, and some bounce back from guys who have struggled. I am not talking Tyler Flowers. I think he is what he is, but realistically, Melky is a better offensive player. Eaton is a better offensive player. So is Alexei. Sanchez can't be as bad as he's been. Abreu should do better. LaRoche should hit some more home runs. I'm as sick of watching 1 or 2 runs scored as much as anyone. But this team will hit better. Whether that is this week, next month, in August or next season, they are better than they have shown.

 

Good post. I do have a few thoughts:

 

1. Montas and Danish are 2 good AA prospects. I would assume packaged they would bring back 1 MLB ready player like a 2B or 3B. But I would guess Q would bring 2 MLB ready players in prime positions like SS, C and SP( end of rotaton).

2. There is also the opinion Alexei may be on the decline.

3. Don't agree onLaRoche. He has averaged 21 HR per season and he is on pace to match that. His BA is down and we could expect a bump and his BB are way up and nis doubles down.

4. I also caution that this team is thin offensively . Any injury would be a major hit since the backups and AAA recall candidates other than maybe Johnson are a real stretch. For example, if an outfielder went down for a month or two , I am not sure they have a lot to choose unless Shuck is the real deal average wise. But he has no pop.

 

[Vance Law]

Trade Gillaspie to the Braves for Juan Uribe. 2015 World Series champs.

[GreenSox]

If we're determined to compete next year somehow, then trading Montas and Danish almost seems like something we must do because otherwise there are just that many gaping holes, but even then it seems like that's not nearly enough.

Trade them for what? More veterans? For hitting prospects of equal ability? The latter is fine by me, but the Sox had the best hitter in the draft fall right in their lap and they passed him on.

If one decries the Shark trade (as I also do) it's tough to trade the few young players we have.

2017 is a better target, just like 2016 was 6 months ago

 

There have been good young players available for players like Shark and middle relievers. The Sox need to find a couple.

Edited June 15, 2015 by GreenSox

[bmags]

Looking at the onslaught of position players joining the big leagues with highly anticipated debuts, I have to wonder if the Sox will have come out of a generational surplus of hitting talent empty handed because of organizational deficiencies, though possible they were able to take advantage by getting better pitching talent than they otherwise would have.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Trade them for what? More veterans? For hitting prospects of equal ability? The latter is fine by me, but the Sox had the best hitter in the draft fall right in their lap and they passed him on.

If one decries the Shark trade (as I also do) it's tough to trade the few young players we have.

2017 is a better target, just like 2016 was 6 months ago

 

There have been good young players available for players like Shark and middle relievers. The Sox need to find a couple.

 

 

Who was the best hitter in the draft that they passed on?