"The White Sox, Black Holes, and Trading Quintana

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...-jose-quintana/

 

So you want your team to spend in free agency. You think to yourself, “This is the year. We’re just a couple pieces away. Go out and get ’em, [insert name of General Manager who, in all likelihood, will not ‘go out and get ’em’ the way you envision].”

 

Maybe you look to a pair of recent World Series winners as the way to do the offseason without committing a massive chunk of payroll on a big-ticket acquisition. Look at how much value the Royals extracted out of mid-tier signings like Kendrys Morales, Edinson Volquez and, on a smaller scale, guys like Kris Medlen and Ryan Madson. Or the Red Sox, and their insanely cost-effective 2013 offseason that netted them Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara — crucial pieces to their championship run.

 

That’s how you do it! You don’t even need to catch the big fish. Just plug your holes with a few of the middle-class free agents to put around your stars and you in a world championship. All there is to it.

 

Except, remember when the White Sox:

 

signed Adam LaRoche to extend their lineup, and

signed Melky Cabrera to shore up their outfield, and

signed Zach Duke to pitch the late innings

 

and then:

 

Adam LaRoche posted a negative WAR, and

Melky Cabrera posted a negative WAR, and

Zach Duke posted a negative WAR

 

At the times of their signings, there wasn’t a real discernible difference between the Victorino/Napoli/Uehara trio and the Cabrera/LaRoche/Duke trio, except the Red Sox trio turned out to be awesome and help win a World Series, and the White Sox trio became a complete trainwreck and now the White Sox are stuck with those guys. They’re deals that were totally defensible at the time, but deals that wouldn’t be made were Rick Hahn given a do-over.

 

The White Sox were the epitome of a stars-and-scrubs team in 2015, led on offense by Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, with a rotation fronted by typically excellent seasons out of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. In Abreu and Sale specifically, the White Sox can already cross off one of the hard parts in building a winner: get some of the best players in the world. Abreu is one of the very best hitters in the sport. Sale is one of the very best pitchers in the sport. These guys are real and play for the White Sox. They’re not the problem. The rest is the problem.

 

Consider what led to the White Sox holes in 2015, and what the present and future looks like for each of those holes. Adam LaRoche was bad because he was a first basemen that ended up a below-average hitter. He’s still a first baseman, and the projections still see him as a below-average hitter. Melky Cabrera was bad because he’s one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball and didn’t possess a tremendous bat. He’s still one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, and the projections still don’t see him possessing a tremendous bat. Third base was a disaster because they didn’t have anyone to play there. They still don’t have anyone to play there. You could probably say the same about second base and, depending on your thoughts regarding Avisail Garcia, right field.

 

Our depth charts can help put these kind of things to numbers:

 

Current 2016 Positional WAR Projections

Team C 1B 2B SS 3B LF CF RF DH SP RP WAR

Dodgers 3.6 2.9 1.5 3.0 2.8 1.8 3.3 4.5 1.1 18.0 3.9 46.3

Cubs 2.4 5.3 2.0 2.8 5.1 3.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 17.3 3.4 44.8

Nationals 2.1 1.5 1.5 2.1 3.8 1.7 1.3 6.9 1.0 18.1 2.9 42.9

Yankees 3.7 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.7 1.1 1.1 15.0 5.6 41.3

Pirates 2.6 0.8 2.9 2.0 2.9 3.8 5.9 2.0 0.9 15.0 2.5 41.2

Mets 3.1 1.9 2.7 1.8 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.1 18.0 2.8 40.7

Astros 2.0 1.3 3.2 4.2 2.5 1.3 3.8 3.4 0.9 14.8 2.8 40.1

Blue Jays 3.8 1.4 2.3 3.4 5.9 1.1 3.0 3.9 3.2 8.6 3.4 40.0

Red Sox 2.5 2.7 3.7 3.8 2.0 1.4 5.0 1.9 1.9 11.6 3.2 39.8

Cardinals 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.2 15.0 3.4 39.5

Indians 3.0 1.6 2.9 3.2 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.8 -0.2 17.6 3.2 38.4

Giants 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.6 3.2 1.8 1.2 2.5 1.3 10.1 2.6 36.2

Rays 1.7 0.9 2.0 2.4 4.0 2.0 3.9 1.6 0.4 13.5 3.0 35.4

Rangers 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.1 4.3 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 12.7 2.9 34.0

Mariners 1.6 1.4 3.6 2.2 3.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.1 12.6 2.4 33.5

Marlins 2.0 0.4 2.0 0.7 2.2 2.4 3.0 5.6 0.7 10.5 3.4 33.0

Angels 2.2 1.0 1.7 3.6 0.8 0.4 9.2 2.6 0.9 8.9 1.4 32.8

Reds 2.4 4.7 1.7 1.9 3.3 0.5 2.3 0.6 0.8 10.6 3.1 31.9

Twins 2.3 1.4 2.5 1.6 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.5 10.7 2.6 30.7

Royals 3.2 2.5 0.5 1.5 3.2 1.4 3.8 0.6 0.8 10.4 2.4 30.3

Athletics 3.5 1.5 1.4 2.5 1.4 1.1 1.3 3.0 0.4 11.5 2.7 30.3

White Sox 1.3 2.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 2.1 0.8 0.7 14.8 3.6 29.9

Diamondbacks 1.9 5.4 0.3 0.8 2.1 1.9 3.8 1.2 0.5 9.7 1.7 29.2

Padres 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.7 0.6 1.2 0.9 14.3 2.4 28.9

Orioles 3.0 0.7 1.6 1.5 5.4 0.5 3.1 0.6 -0.8 9.1 3.5 28.3

Tigers 2.1 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.6 1.2 8.8 0.9 27.9

Rockies 1.9 -0.3 0.8 1.6 3.8 1.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 11.1 2.4 25.7

Brewers 2.8 1.7 0.9 1.1 -0.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.3 9.2 3.4 25.0

Braves 1.7 4.0 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 7.0 2.5 20.6

Phillies 1.7 -0.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 0.1 1.6 0.5 0.4 7.4 2.0 18.0

Based on current Steamer projections

 

The White Sox, as currently constructed, project to be bottom-three at third base and shortstop. They’ve got the sixth-worst right field projection, the seventh-worst second base forecast, and the ninth-worst left field situation.

 

This isn’t fair to Chris Sale and Jose Abreu.

 

And the problem is, it’s tough to see how they can work it all out. They don’t have a slew of high-profile prospects waiting to burst on the scene like the recent Cubs and Astros teams, so “wait it out” isn’t an option. “Blow it all up” doesn’t seem like an option either, considering how the team viewed itself as a contender less than a year ago. And, I mean, look! Chris Sale and Jose Abreu! They’re right there, standing in White Sox uniforms, waiting to win! And you wanna just blow it up? Free agency isn’t a real viable option either, due to how poorly it went last year and the White Sox only having around $20 million dollars to spend this time around.

 

Without immediate prospects, free agency or a total rebuild as attractive solutions, we’re left with just one: the trade market. Sale and Abreu aren’t the guys you want to deal, because that’s who this is all for in the first place. Chicago should do its best to move either LaRoche or Cabrera to keep Melky out of the outfield in 2016, but even one of those moves would likely just bring back another bad contract and underwhelming player.

 

I know it would be a tough pill to swallow for White Sox fans, but they might have no choice other than to trade Jose Quintana. They desperately need to acquire quality major league talent at up to six different positions, and consolidating Quintana into multiple assets seems like the only way that the White Sox can even come close to making that happen.

 

At 26 years old with a team-friendly contract that runs through 2020, Quintana is an immensely valuable trade chip; Dave Cameron had him ranked 41st in this year’s midseason Trade Value list, right between Freddie Freeman and Byron Buxton. For an idea of what Quintana might be able to bring to Chicago, look no further than Quintana’s closest comp, Cole Hamels:

 

Jose Quintana vs. Cole Hamels, 2013-15

Name GS IP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- K% BB% HR/9 GB% BABIP RA9-WAR FIP-WAR

Cole Hamels 95 637 3.25 3.27 85 84 24% 7% 0.81 46 % .295 13.3 12.9

Jose Quintana 97 607 3.40 3.27 85 80 21% 6% 0.73 45 % .310 12.0 13.4

 

Hamels has the name recognition and a longer track record, but he’s also five years older, isn’t demonstrably better than Quintana — if he is at all — and even after factoring in the offsetting salary of Matt Harrison that went back to Philadelphia, is more expensive than Quintana, who’s owed a bargain price of $50 million over the next five years.

 

Hamels netted the Phillies two top-50 prospects, a top-100 prospect and two other interesting pieces. Two of those guys made an immediate impact for the Phillies. The other three could all debut this year. You could probably argue that the Rangers overpaid for Hamels, but you could also argue that Quintana has more trade value than Hamels. As for potential suitors, take your pick. Plenty of teams would love to have Jose Quintana. Any team that’s been linked to Carlos Carrasco would gladly talk about Quintana, and that includes organizations like the Dodgers and Cubs, ripe with major league ready prospect talent.

 

Losing Quintana, of course, would be a blow to the White Sox rotation. But Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon keep them in a good situation at the top, and if Rodon’s ascent to the majors serves as any indication, Carson Fulmer might be less than a year away from joining them. It’s not difficult to find a cheap veteran or two to fill out the back end of a rotation, and that might not even be necessary with the ilk of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas and Chris Beck waiting to show what they’ve got.

 

The point is: the White Sox could move Jose Quintana and still likely field at least an average starting rotation. Hell, the same could probably be said about David Robertson and the bullpen, especially after seeing what Craig Kimbrel just got the Padres. The White Sox have one of the most bizarrely logjammed stars-and-scrubs rosters in the majors right now, and a piece in Jose Quintana that’s both immensely valuable and not necessarily a face of the franchise type like Sale or Abreu. It’s never an ideal scenario to deal a talent like Quintana, but if they want to capitalize on the Sale-Abreu era, it might be their only choice.

[shysocks]

Such foul language in the thread title!

 

If you trade Q, just don't screw it up. That's all I ask.

[Eminor3rd]

Such foul language in the thread title!

 

Lol I giggled too.

[Y2Jimmy0]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...-jose-quintana/

 

Good piece here. Someone that actually understands what Quintana is worth.

[chetkincaid]

Jesus Christ this article makes me feel bad. Just blow everything up and trade Sale, Abreu, Quintana... everybody.

 

We're so doomed.

[Doc Edwards Shot]

Jesus Christ this article makes me feel bad. Just blow everything up and trade Sale, Abreu, Quintana... everybody.

 

We're so doomed.

Yeah, except there's no reason to feel confident that the Sox brass could make trades that will benefit the team.

 

I feel like they'll just pull a bunch of Jaime Navarros or Billy Kochs. Zero confidence in the front office!

 

But I wouldn't object to trading Q. They desperately need position players who are worth something and the rotation would still be decent without Q.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Doc Edwards Shot

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Skimmed the article. That negative war part on LaRoche, Melky and Duke made me South Side Suicidal lol

[BaconOnAStick]

And the Sox were almost buyers at the deadline anyway. In spite of all of that.

 

Try it again, retool where needed (DH, C, 3B), maybe add a dynamic player with some issues and see what happens. With Sale-Q-Rodon anchoring the rotation it wont take much to make the Sox contenders in the central.

[Dunt]

Improve the defense and base running considerably and this team gets better in a hurry without dealing Quintana. If you trade Q, it better be for a package like Hamels or better.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't support this because given Quintana's below-market contract, I think the Sox would lose value in any trade that doesn't also involve players on below-market contracts.

 

You can shuffle wins from SP to 3B or whatever, but that position player is likely going to consume more financial resources than Quintana would, thus making it harder to fill the void that still exists because you just created it by moving Quintana.

 

Before anyone says, "THAT'S WHY YOU ASK FOR EVERY TEAM'S TWO BEST PLAYERS AND BEST PROSPECTS QUINTANA IS WORTH MROE THAN SALE TBH," everyone would be in favor of trading Quintana for some stupid, lopsided, fire-able overpay, but that's not realistically going to happen, so it doesn't belong in a logical discussion. If that boons falls into our laps, fine, but that can't be a part of "the plan."

[Eminor3rd]

Comment From Matt

Just red August’s blog on the White Sox and how their best option would be by trading Quintana in order to be competitive in 2016. Realistically, who do you think they could get in return?

 

Dave Cameron: Quintana is signed for 5/$40M, including the team options. He’d get what as a FA on a 5 year deal, $100M? $125M? So he’s worth $60 to $85M, something like that. That’s an elite prospect, or two very good ones.

[TheFutureIsNear]

The article is dead on...without acquiring position players (3 or 4) this team is never going to win. We might be able to swing 1 in a trade with the few prospects we do have, but that's not doing anything for us. Seems to be a lot of denial going on about how bad of shape this franchise is actually in. Hopefully we don't just overpay for more free agents and put ourselves into purgatory even further. Something big needs to be done and young pitchers like Q are the only cards Hahn has to play. It's an unfortunate reality.

[rcpweiner]

As much as I hate the idea of trading Q, if the return would be something like what Samardjiza got for the A's a few years back (Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily; the caveat being that the A's also received half-a-year of Jason Hammel, but that seems like a wash with Q's extra years), and there's no reason it shouldn't be along those lines, the White Sox should pull the trigger.

 

Would anyone not take that deal?

Edited November 18, 2015 by rcpweiner

[Whisox05]

Improve the defense and base running considerably and this team gets better in a hurry without dealing Quintana. If you trade Q, it better be for a package like Hamels or better.

 

Yes better on the base running but you need to get guys on base in the first place. The Sox were like near the bottom in opb and all of the Sox position players were in the middle to bottom half in all of baseball. Need offensive guys desperately and I honestly believe the only way besides free agency is using Quintana as trade bait.

[GGajewski18]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 26s26 seconds ago

Dan Hayes Retweeted August f**erstrom

Deep look at what Jose Quintana might be able to fetch in trade. Was told last wk it'd take "small army" of hitters.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 26s26 seconds ago

Dan Hayes Retweeted August f**erstrom

Deep look at what Jose Quintana might be able to fetch in trade. Was told last wk it'd take "small army" of hitters.

 

 

And this is the right mindset. Nobody is really opposed to trading Jose Quintana. They are just opposed to seeing him traded for Javy Baez or Starlin Castro or something really stupid. Hahn and Kenny would never do that though. If Q goes, a lot will be coming back in return.

[TheFutureIsNear]

The Dbacks still make the most sense to me if theyre making a hard push for pitching. David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Peter O'Brien would be a nice main package (maybe a B level SP prospect as well) for us in my opinion and wouldn't really dent their talent with Tomas and Drury ready to step in and start in RF and 3B.

[Dick Allen]

The Dbacks still make the most sense to me if theyre making a hard push for pitching. David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Peter O'Brien would be a nice main package (maybe a B level SP prospect as well) for us in my opinion and wouldn't really dent their talent with Tomas and Drury ready to step in and start in RF and 3B.

If the White Sox are trading Sale or Q and not denting a team's talent really badly, they didn't make a good trade.

 

 

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

If the White Sox are trading Sale or Q and not denting a team's talent really badly, they didn't make a good trade.

 

My point was that the d backs have a lot of talent in areas of need for us.

[Vance Law]

Red Sox obviously would match up as well if Q were to be traded.

[Dunt]

I still think the Sox and Rangers line up really well. Q for a package revolving around Mazara, Profar (if his medicals check out), and Ortiz would have me interested.

[Whisox05]

No idea. The two teams I've been told the Cubs have spoken to specifically are the Indians and the White Sox. https://t.co/lZXrenKF5p https://twitter.com/JulieDiCaro/status/667062207369388032

 

@JulieDiCaro @jgaepi so the White Sox have talked to the cubs about Baez and/or Soler? https://twitter.com/whisox05/status/667066288280240128

 

@whisox05 @jgaepi Don't know what names were discussed on the Cubs end. The discussions were about pitching. Assume Quintana was the target.

https://twitter.com/JulieDiCaro/status/667106773996843009

 

Ran across the tweet. I tweeted her and she replied back.

[BlackSox13]

No idea. The two teams I've been told the Cubs have spoken to specifically are the Indians and the White Sox. https://t.co/lZXrenKF5p https://twitter.com/JulieDiCaro/status/667062207369388032

 

@JulieDiCaro @jgaepi so the White Sox have talked to the cubs about Baez and/or Soler? https://twitter.com/whisox05/status/667066288280240128

 

@whisox05 @jgaepi Don't know what names were discussed on the Cubs end. The discussions were about pitching. Assume Quintana was the target.

https://twitter.com/JulieDiCaro/status/667106773996843009

 

Ran across the tweet. I tweeted her and she replied back.

Ha ha. If there was a trade between the Chicago teams, watch it be something like Villanueva and Vogelbach for Erik Johnson + A ball pitcher. I can hear fans from both teams go " wait, whaaaat"?

 

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

I still think the Sox and Rangers line up really well. Q for a package revolving around Mazara, Profar (if his medicals check out), and Ortiz would have me interested.

 

Can't imagine the Rangers are trading basically their farm system for 2 lefty pitchers in the span of like 6 or 7 months. Crazier things have happened and that package of prospects would certainly entice me, but I'd be pretty shocked if the Rangers came calling if we did/do make Q available

[Dunt]

Can't imagine the Rangers are trading basically their farm system for 2 lefty pitchers in the span of like 6 or 7 months. Crazier things have happened and that package of prospects would certainly entice me, but I'd be pretty shocked if the Rangers came calling if we did/do make Q available

 

Mazara and Profar both blocked, and they could use a reliable pitcher capable of 200 IP every year. Their staff has big health problems.