shakes Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 10:34 AM) I have a semi hypothesis that with how significantly teams are valuing their prospects, that the paradigm / moneyball shift might actually be in using your prospects for other cost-controlled players. It seems like in so many cases teams don't want to give up their top guys that the value for good players is actually less than you would expect (because everyone is kind of to the point of overvaluing prospects). Been thinking about this lately and than when I see stuff like Seager / Urias for Jose Fernandez being absurd (a guy who isn't a free agent until 2019 and when healthy (and he looked like he didn't miss a bit late last year) is one of the best pitchers on the planet at 22/23 years old) and I think to myself how absurd that notion is. What are the odds that Seager / Urias both hit...slim and I think the odds of Urias being at Fernandez level are also equally slim. Bottom line, I find myself to the point of, maybe using chips (not necessarily vets) but for position equivalents of solid players is the real way to go. Look at how the Jays scourged the A's last year for the AL MVP. I'm in full agreement with this. And if the Sox can get a controllable upgrade I am completely fine with trading Anderson. I've mentioned this in other threads, but Andersons weaknesses are the exact type of weaknesses the Sox system has not been able to correct, so as talented as he is, I think he has a higher risk of busting with the White Sox. I'm fine with moving him, as long as it is a long term answer to 3b, C, SS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 11:26 AM) A year ago they could have said that about Joc Pederson. I'd still take Joc but his stock is a heck of a lot more down than it was this time last year (or especially say last May/June before he fell off a cliff and went all Jeff Francouer). No matter how elite a prospect, they still have pretty high bust risk. Its just the nature of the beast. With the amount of young, high profile talent that has came up and had early success (Kris Bryant / Harper / Trout / Fernandez / Sale / Rodon), I think it has slightly altered people's perspectives, but I'd also argue their are still as many high profile busts as before. Getting a good, proven major leaguer when they are still a few years away from free agency is still incredibly valuable and its something I'd go 2 for 1 on most anytime. 2 for 1 prospect deals for above average players with a few years left seem to have limited downside. Right, I'm not saying they are, but I don't think there would be the level of scrutiny on that package if we are talking about Jose Fernandez last spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakes Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 11:07 AM) Better be getting an Arenado type bat. For Anderson? This is where the disconnect with prospect valuation comes in. Arenado is maybe a top five position player in the game and ascending. Anderson doesn't even get a discussion started. If I'm the Rockies I wouldn't trade him straight up for Sale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 11:31 AM) For Anderson? This is where the disconnect with prospect valuation comes in. Arenado is maybe a top five position player in the game and ascending. Anderson doesn't even get a discussion started. If I'm the Rockies I wouldn't trade him straight up for Sale. Haha you're crazy. Now you're the one overrating Arenado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHurt3515 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I want to actually see if we can develop a hitter so I would rather not trade the best chance we got Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 And the sky is blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:31 PM) For Anderson? This is where the disconnect with prospect valuation comes in. Arenado is maybe a top five position player in the game and ascending. Anderson doesn't even get a discussion started. If I'm the Rockies I wouldn't trade him straight up for Sale. It would obviously be a big package for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 If I was trading with the White Sox, Anderson, Montas, Adams and Fulmer would be all I really wanted. So no surprise here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) I want to actually see if we can develop a hitter so I would rather not trade the best chance we got I do too I was just saying if I'm giving up our top young hitter it's gota be for an impact bat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:07 PM) If I was trading with the White Sox, Anderson, Montas, Adams and Fulmer would be all I really wanted. So no surprise here. If you had the last say, would you trade those 4 guys for Arenado? I probably wouldn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 10:07 AM) If you had the last say, would you trade those 4 guys for Arenado? I probably wouldn't. Nope. Arenado is really good for Colorado and I like that he is a strong defender, but I don't think his bat would be superstar level outside of Coors and if I'm dropping those 4 guys, 3 of which might be in the top 100 prospects overall, I need a superstar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:15 PM) Nope. Arenado is really good for Colorado and I like that he is a strong defender, but I don't think his bat would be superstar level outside of Coors and if I'm dropping those 4 guys, 3 of which might be in the top 100 prospects overall, I need a superstar. Arenado hit more home runs on the road than at home in 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 10:17 AM) Arenado hit more home runs on the road than at home in 2015. He also had a sub .300 obp on the road. His OPS was still good at .835 but it was .960 at Coors. I'm not trading my whole system for a guy that isn't a premium bat outside of Coors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:20 PM) He also had a sub .300 obp on the road. His OPS was still good at .835 but it was .960 at Coors. I'm not trading my whole system for a guy that isn't a premium bat outside of Coors. The change from teh biggest OF in baseball, to one of the smallest here, would take a huge chunk out of BA and OBP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:15 PM) Nope. Arenado is really good for Colorado and I like that he is a strong defender, but I don't think his bat would be superstar level outside of Coors and if I'm dropping those 4 guys, 3 of which might be in the top 100 prospects overall, I need a superstar. Anderson, Montas, and Fulmer are already top 100 guys, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Adams sneak into the 90s somewhere. He's at least right outside the top 100. No way I give all of that for Arenado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 11:52 AM) How is Margot a much better guy? Anderson made huge strides this year defensively, and was better offensively and coming in, he was ranked a better prospect by about 20 with MLB.com and BP, and the Phil Rogers doing the ranking BA had Margot about 20 better. The fact that Anderson also plays SS has to factor in as well. They cannot trade him unless it's a really good deal and what is coming back is going to be around awhile. I don't think Anderson being higher than Margot actually represents consensus, and I think Margot's favor has increased over the course of the season and will reflect as the newest lists come out. In commentary on the trade, I heard that some consider him a top 20 guy right now. I think consensus on Anderson is around top 50. Of course they cannot trade him unless it's a good deal -- they can't trade ANY decent prospect unless it's a good deal. My point is that Anderson should not be an "untouchable" guy -- he's a pretty run-of-the-mill mid-100 prospect with great upside and tons of risks/warts. Absolutely valuable, but absolutely not irreplaceable and commonly and rightfully used as trade currency. Like other guys of his ilk, he's still vastly more likely to bust uselessly, which is something you very frequently point out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakes Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:20 PM) He also had a sub .300 obp on the road. His OPS was still good at .835 but it was .960 at Coors. I'm not trading my whole system for a guy that isn't a premium bat outside of Coors. And Bryce Harper had just as large of a drop in road OPS. Almost all hitters are better at home. An .835 road OPS for a 24 year old who players stellar defense, is great in my book. He's the type of player that will succeed anywhere. It doesn't matter, the Rockies aren't trading him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 10:28 AM) Looks like teams have realized that Gambler Kenny is back ready to win a world series and will empty the farm again. It would be nice if he would remember that he didn't have to empty the farm to win the last one. This is what happens when your have a history of over paying and giving up the best prospects- teams expect that sort of treatment. Williams and his theories of declining veterans and career years are obsolete. Let Hahn run the show please. Edited December 8, 2015 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinilaw08 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 04:41 PM) And Bryce Harper had just as large of a drop in road OPS. Almost all hitters are better at home. An .835 road OPS for a 24 year old who players stellar defense, is great in my book. He's the type of player that will succeed anywhere. It doesn't matter, the Rockies aren't trading him. Arenado is one of the best defensive 3Bs in the game AND he's an impact bat. The Sox wouldn't move a guy like that for a collection of good but not great prospects, so I don't see why we'd expect the Rockies to do the same. The only way the Sox and Rockies would be able to get a deal done is Arenado for Sale... and I really don't think either team does that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Guessing we have made some calls on some players we have yet to be connected to publicly and yet want Anderson back in trades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 If teams want Anderson ... we know he's a legit prospect at least. If he's a legit ss, we can't afford to be trading him. Sox need a young shortstop ready to take over (in a year). We're going to be hurting at ss this year with Lexi gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 08:34 AM) What are the odds that Seager / Urias both hit...slim I would say "good" or "very good" rather than slim. Urias was great at AA at age 18. Fernandez struggled at A- at age 18. Seager forced his way into the starting shortstop job for the Dodgers in a pennant race and put up an .986 OPS for a month at age 21. In what universe are these two both not likely to have MLB success? Edited December 9, 2015 by Vance Law Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 06:14 PM) If teams want Anderson ... we know he's a legit prospect at least. If he's a legit ss, we can't afford to be trading him. Sox need a young shortstop ready to take over (in a year). We're going to be hurting at ss this year with Lexi gone. We knew he was a legit prospect. Saladino can cover for Alexei defensively. And Alexei's offense wasn't much anyway. what worries me is that if the other teams are wanting Anderson, it could mean Williams is hero worshiping career years and 2 year rents. Edited December 9, 2015 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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