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Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

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Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 2h2 hours ago

 

Chuck Garfien Retweeted Owen Schoenfeld

 

A power bat in the middle of the order.

 

Chuck Garfien added,

Owen Schoenfeld @The_Xsport

@ChuckGarfien Any White Sox guesses?

 

 

Since the OF free agent market is weak next winter, I'd backload the contract and be all-in on Cespedes. #WhiteSox

 

Chuck Garfien added,

Gosox @ChicagoSports17

@ChuckGarfien @The_Xsport any prediction on who it will

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I mean.. sure, it would be nice to get some on like Cespedes, but do we wanna backload a contract and pay the guy 30M when he is 36? I don't. Does Garfien have any real info ever or is kind of just a fluff guy?

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There's no doubt that Cespedes and Eaton on the corners and Thompson in CF would give the White Sox a much better overall defense and a MUCH more exciting team.

 

Cabrera would become the full-time DH and LaRoche would be essentially a PH and defensive replacement for Abreu.

 

Once again, a win now move that still leaves the White Sox exposed to injury/quality depth issues and struggling to get league-average production from SS, 2B and CF (and possibly catcher). That said, it's 100% better than having 4-5 potential line-up holes, as is the present case. (You'd be simultaneously improving two positions by pushing Cabrera into LaRoche's spot at DH).

 

Still think they'd need to get more offense from the middle than what Sanchez and Saladino are likely to provide, assuming Lawrie is a 1-2 WAR player.

 

The problem is that at his age (assuming it's accurate and not in Alexei Years) you can't afford to give six years to Cespedes (let's say $160-170 million for six years) any more than you can afford to give $115-130 million to Alex Gordon for five years. Anything more than 4 years for Cespedes and 3 years for Gordon is playing with fire.

 

As much as it's easy to assume we can heavily backload deals and easily dump Cespedes in the future, that doesn't happen quite as often as one would imagine with these huge free agent acquisitions...

Edited by caulfield12

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I don't want to see the Sox spend big on anyone this winter. One of the worst things you can be in pro sports is old, non competitive and uncompetitive. The White Sox are on their way there. I think that they should focus on acquiring young talent, rather than spending big on FAs. And if the Sox were to sign Cesoedes, they would be paying for his decline and that's not smart.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 12:06 AM)
There's no doubt that Cespedes and Eaton on the corners and Thompson in CF would give the White Sox a much better overall defense and a MUCH more exciting team.

 

Cabrera would become the full-time DH and LaRoche would be essentially a PH and defensive replacement for Abreu.

 

Once again, a win now move that still leaves the White Sox exposed to injury/quality depth issues and struggling to get league-average production from SS, 2B and CF (and possibly catcher). That said, it's 100% better than having 4-5 potential line-up holes, as is the present case. (You'd be simultaneously improving two positions by pushing Cabrera into LaRoche's spot at DH).

 

Still think they'd need to get more offense from the middle than what Sanchez and Saladino are likely to provide, assuming Lawrie is a 1-2 WAR player.

 

The problem is that at his age (assuming it's accurate and not in Alexei Years) you can't afford to give six years to Cespedes (let's say $160-170 million for six years) any more than you can afford to give $115-130 million to Alex Gordon for five years. Anything more than 4 years for Cespedes and 3 years for Gordon is playing with fire.

 

As much as it's easy to assume we can heavily backload deals and easily dump Cespedes in the future, that doesn't happen quite as often as one would imagine with these huge free agent acquisitions...

Heyward just got an AAV of $23M. Yes, he took a discount and his deal is front-loaded, but no way in hell Cespedes & Gordon are getting the contracts you are proposing.

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QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 12:06 AM)
I mean.. sure, it would be nice to get some on like Cespedes, but do we wanna backload a contract and pay the guy 30M when he is 36? I don't. Does Garfien have any real info ever or is kind of just a fluff guy?

 

I assume back-loaded after this year. Like they don't pay him a lot this year but then spread the remaining money over years 2-? since this Danks and LaRoche will be gone.

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He makes too much sense for this team, which is why it won't happen. Adds potent power bat behind Abreu...check, upgrades defense in leftfield....check, no draft pick compensation attached....check. All you have to do is spend the money for him. Atleast the Sox arent cheap though, right?

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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 07:24 AM)
I'd take Cespedes over Upton because I like his bat better and doesn't cost a pick.

Pick should have no bearing on anything if you're about to hand out 140 million+

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Cespedes is a lot like Samardzija in that (1) he's going into his age 31 season, (2) he's a 2015 free agent, and (3) his career is made up of a bunch of slightly above-average seasons and one monster year. Cespedes is UNLIKE Samardzija in that the career year came in 2015 instead of 2014.

 

I don't want to pay for that career year. The biggest differences in Cespedes' 2014 and 2015 were a 30-point difference in BABIP and a 9% (!) difference in HR/FB%, both of which are among the least reliable year-to-year metrics for hitters. Walk rates, K-rates, swing rates, and other peripherals were about the same.

 

I think Cespedes is a 3-win corner outfielder who just passed age 30. I don't want to pay him like he's a 6-win outfielder without a draft pick attached.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 08:14 AM)
Cespedes is a lot like Samardzija in that (1) he's going into his age 31 season, (2) he's a 2015 free agent, and (3) his career is made up of a bunch of slightly above-average seasons and one monster year. Cespedes is UNLIKE Samardzija in that the career year came in 2015 instead of 2014.

 

I don't want to pay for that career year. The biggest differences in Cespedes' 2014 and 2015 were a 30-point difference in BABIP and a 9% (!) difference in HR/FB%, both of which are among the least reliable year-to-year metrics for hitters. Walk rates, K-rates, swing rates, and other peripherals were about the same.

 

I think Cespedes is a 3-win corner outfielder who just passed age 30. I don't want to pay him like he's a 6-win outfielder without a draft pick attached.

 

Not to be nitpicky but he's going into his age 30 season (Cespedes).

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 08:14 AM)
Cespedes is a lot like Samardzija in that (1) he's going into his age 31 season, (2) he's a 2015 free agent, and (3) his career is made up of a bunch of slightly above-average seasons and one monster year. Cespedes is UNLIKE Samardzija in that the career year came in 2015 instead of 2014.

 

I don't want to pay for that career year. The biggest differences in Cespedes' 2014 and 2015 were a 30-point difference in BABIP and a 9% (!) difference in HR/FB%, both of which are among the least reliable year-to-year metrics for hitters. Walk rates, K-rates, swing rates, and other peripherals were about the same.

 

I think Cespedes is a 3-win corner outfielder who just passed age 30. I don't want to pay him like he's a 6-win outfielder without a draft pick attached.

 

Can he be had for 6/$100 (I've heard his market is lower than expected), would that be an overpay, and is it something the White Sox would be willing to do?

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If you are looking at a 5 or 6 year deal for a guy like Upton and Cespedes, the draft pick is nice to have, but isn't as important as the guy you are signing is going to be here for a long time anyway.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 09:34 AM)
Can he be had for 6/$100 (I've heard his market is lower than expected), would that be an overpay, and is it something the White Sox would be willing to do?

 

If he could be had at 6/$100, I'd be all over it. I think it's going to be more like 7/$160m or something.

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 02:38 AM)
I don't want to see the Sox spend big on anyone this winter. One of the worst things you can be in pro sports is old, non competitive and uncompetitive. The White Sox are on their way there. I think that they should focus on acquiring young talent, rather than spending big on FAs. And if the Sox were to sign Cesoedes, they would be paying for his decline and that's not smart.

How are the White Sox old? LaRoche is the only truly old one, and he's gone after this year. After him Duke is the second-oldest at 32, and then pretty much everyone else is 30 or younger except Melky, who is 31. They're actually a pretty young team.

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Not a huge Cespedes guy. I'd prefer Upton.

 

Cespedes doesn't walk much, and while he has a cannon for an arm, he isn't a GREAT OF, but he's definitely an improvement over Melky/Avi.

 

I'd definitely take him, but think he's going to get paid much much more than he's worth, but in todays game, that's pretty much the case with every FA.

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It'll be interesting to see what he, Gordon and Upton get.

 

I'd be willing to go 5 years, $110mm (pay a little higher per year to have a shorter contract) and then have an option for a 6th year.

Same thing with Gordon. 4 years, $90mm or the likes. These are off the top of my head. Basically I'd overpay for a shorter contract. The Sox aren't the type of team that can absorb a bad, LONG contract.

 

 

We can absorb the Danks, LaRoche contracts somewhat, but can't absorb a Hanley or Panda bad contract.

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anthony fenech ‏@anthonyfenech 47m47 minutes ago

 

Agents have heard things about Alex Gordon, but nothing about Yoenis Cespedes. Some think the Tigers are still lurking.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 07:01 PM)
One rumor is the Cardinals are offering Gordon around $80-90 million for five years.

 

Everything I've heard says they're not interested

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 07:13 PM)
anthony fenech ‏@anthonyfenech 47m47 minutes ago

 

Agents have heard things about Alex Gordon, but nothing about Yoenis Cespedes. Some think the Tigers are still lurking.

 

That would give the Tigers quite the offseason

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I'd shock the world and offer Alex Gordon 5/$100. It would weaken one division rival (Royals) and make another division rival have to look elsewhere (Tigers).

 

But if we do that then you have to make a trade for Frazier too. I won't say those words that rhyme with MALL PIN, but yeah... that would be fun.

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QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 01:59 PM)
I'd shock the world and offer Alex Gordon 5/$100. It would weaken one division rival (Royals) and make another division rival have to look elsewhere (Tigers).

 

But if we do that then you have to make a trade for Frazier too. I won't say those words that rhyme with MALL PIN, but yeah... that would be fun.

 

Gordon becomes much more interesting at 4 or 5 years, than he does at 6.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 02:00 PM)
Gordon becomes much more interesting at 4 or 5 years, than he does at 6.

 

6/$120M? I'd still do it. Worry about that 6th year later.

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