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2016 Democratic Thread

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 10:46 AM)
In Nate Silver's panic-driven forecast for a very brief period, but in the rest of the aggregators, he wasn't. The last couple of days have had increasingly good polls for Clinton, and really the last couple of weeks have pushed her back into the 75%+ column in all of the aggregators.

Hm. I do look at 538 periodically - I must have missed that few days or whatever it was.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 10:52 AM)
Hm. I do look at 538 periodically - I must have missed that few days or whatever it was.

 

I don't remember if it was their NowCast which is intentionally overreactive to new polls or if it was their polls-plus model, but one of them did have Trump at 55% to win right before the first debate.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 04:05 PM)
I don't remember if it was their NowCast which is intentionally overreactive to new polls or if it was their polls-plus model, but one of them did have Trump at 55% to win right before the first debate.

 

NowCast is the one that fluctuates a lot

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In case people were wonder, this is the type of stuff that is the reason why the Dems didn't target Trump earlier. They knew they could bury him.

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Given the deluge of stories coming out already, and given that it's only 10/7, my guess is they've got recordings of Trump saying much, much worse than even that.

 

edit: October Surprise is more like October Advent Calendar this year

 

Trump camp's response is, uh,

 

aq2dYbE.jpg

 

 

 

 

Josh Barro @jbarro

I bet Paul Ryan is excited to appear on stage with Donald Trump tomorrow!

3:21 PM - 7 Oct 2016

 

lol Ryan's timing this campaign has been impeccable.

 

Paul Ryan @SpeakerRyan

Victims of sexual assault deserve full protection under the law. And now, they will have it. http://spkrryan.us/2dZBvDs

2:02 PM - 7 Oct 2016

 

oh maybe he's going with to stop Trump from grabbing women "by the p****"

Edited by StrangeSox

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Tom Winter @Tom_Winter

BREAKING: U.S. Intelligence says of the hacks, "only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities."

2:36 PM - 7 Oct 2016

 

Tom Winter @Tom_Winter

BULLETIN: U.S. Intelligence states on the record that servers operated by a Russian company have been probing U.S. election systems.

2:35 PM - 7 Oct 2016

 

remember when a Putin stooge was running Trump's campaign?

 

Matt Viser @mviser

On the same day we learn Russian government formally asked UN to stop criticizing Trump, US government formally accuses Russia of hacking.

2:59 PM - 7 Oct 2016

Edited by StrangeSox

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 04:07 PM)
Also Billy Bush's sparkling reputation is now tarnished.

 

I don't even know who Billy Bush is. Had to look him up.

 

What does Ted Cruz think?

Edited by Brian

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This was apparently from July, but I just heard about it today from someone at work.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/poli...7583_story.html

 

Excerpt

 

“I’ve got black accountants at Trump Castle and at Trump Plaza — black guys counting my money!” O’Donnell’s book quoted Trump as saying. “I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. Those are the kind of people I want counting my money. Nobody else. . . . Besides that, I’ve got to tell you something else. I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is; I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

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There's a deposition from a lawsuit against Trump from several years back alleging this exact behavior.

 

https://twitter.com/jonswaine/status/784497...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

A candidate for the President of the United States admitting to serial sexual battery on tape. This election just needs to be over already.

 

edit: It's too bad none of the 16 other GOP candidates could be bothered to do any opposition research on Trump whatsoever during the primaries!

 

edit2: it turns out that Trump was right all along...this is too much winning, please, Mr. Trump, I can't handle all of this winning...

Edited by StrangeSox

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I dunno...is this really surprising to anyone? It honestly does nothing for me.

 

Now when things come out like this for someone that you would have never expected...Tiger Woods, for instance, then this is news.

 

The Donald...par for the course.

 

Btw, I do actually think it should be discounted due to the nature of the recordings. A lot of men speak like this around other men they are trying to impress.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 03:51 PM)
I dunno...is this really surprising to anyone? It honestly does nothing for me.

 

Now when things come out like this for someone that you would have never expected...Tiger Woods, for instance, then this is news.

 

The Donald...par for the course.

 

Btw, I do actually think it should be discounted due to the nature of the recordings. A lot of men speak like this around other men they are trying to impress.

 

It's kind of sad that so many people will have this reaction to a person that is so close to becoming the president of the United States. I mean how low can the bar go for this imbecile?

 

Not singling you out either. I just realize that this will not be an uncommon reaction.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 03:59 PM)
It's kind of sad that so many people will have this reaction to a person that is so close to becoming the president of the United States. I mean how low can the bar go for this imbecile?

 

Not singling you out either. I just realize that this will not be an uncommon reaction.

No, I understand...I actually think it is a good sign, Sqwert. I mean shouldn't most of us have had this understanding of who the guy is a long time ago?

 

I guess it just doesn't surprise me in the least that he would say these things off camera when he says the things he does on camera...

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SO basically if you vote for Trump, you don't care about his indescretions and behavior towards women, so you don't care what Bill Clinton ever did either.

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QUOTE (Brian @ Oct 7, 2016 -> 04:20 PM)
SO basically if you vote for Trump, you don't care about his indescretions and behavior towards women, so you don't care what Bill Clinton ever did either.

I honestly could give a s*** what Bill Clinton did. Politicians and World leaders are all egomaniacs anyways. If you don't think most of men with this kind of power are going to abuse it by being predatory towards women, you're being naive. It's something that sort of comes with the territory, and while I don't mean to say that it's something we shouldn't look down upon, I guess it's just not something I concern myself with.

 

One thing I admire about Barack Obama is that he has brought some integrity back to the office, but for me it's more about what kind of impact they have governing.

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Friend of mine who was chased at night, abused, nearly raped last year in LA is finding today somewhat triggering.

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This is your regular reminder that stating it's so important that we stop being PC about one group, you don't get a pass when he switches groups to talking about rape and you have a daughter

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