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southsider2k5

2016 Republican Thread

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 08:53 PM)
That was New Hampshire.

 

I thought Trump won NH.

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Does the kkk exist outside of being a media boogeyman? I mean they do, but when is the last time they've been relevant outside of that? There's been a couple incidents here and there I'm sure, but seriously they are the niche of the absolute niche locked in the backwoods of absolutely nowhere and I cannot grasp so much time is wasted on them.

Edited by Buehrle>Wood

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QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 10:52 PM)
Rubio did win a state!

I take pleasure in Minnesota being the only state today where Trump finished third. Has that happened yet at all?

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QUOTE (farmteam @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 10:58 PM)
I take pleasure in Minnesota being the only state today where Trump finished third. Has that happened yet at all?

Nope.

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"Our country is going to hell with being politically correct."

— Donald Trump tonight at a rally in Oklahoma City after staring down some guy in a "KKK supports Trump" T-shirt. He said "in the old days security would have gotten him out of here a lot quicker."

 

 

You got to admit Trump is right about the P.C. stuff. Comedians can't even go on college campuses anymore cause the students won't laugh at any controversial jokes. I wish George Carlin was still alive, my gawd he'd eat the PCers alive!

 

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Does the kkk exist outside of being a media boogeyman? I mean they do, but when is the last time they've been relevant outside of that? There's been a couple incidents here and there I'm sure, but seriously they are the niche of the absolute niche locked in the backwoods of absolutely nowhere and I cannot grasp so much time is wasted on them.

 

They are not as public as they used to be, but KKK is very real.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 06:25 PM)
And like that, the GOP establishment is dead. Not that Cruz is actually anti-establishment, but his voters are and the GOP won't get behind him.

 

And these morons still won't realize it is over for Rubio. They'll continue to dump money into him and refuse to get behind their glimmer of hope in Cruz.

 

I guess there is the Romney poison pill play still on the table.

Cruz had a strong enough showing that he has the card that if the establishment wants to go anti trump, it has to be either him or Kasich. Rubio is toast. Crushed in his own state. He needs to walk away and realize he'll have another shot 4 years from now (because I don't see Trump winning the white house and while Cruz has a better chance, I don't see that either; Kasich or Rubio could win but that doens't appear to matter).

 

I guess if all of them stay in, maybe it keeps the delegate count low enough that you get to a brokered convention and at that point, all bets are off (that said, by that point, the republican party will be so splintered, it would be hard to actually rally behind whomever is truly selected (and I'm sure if Trump loses he'd go independent).

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 11:09 AM)
Cruz had a strong enough showing that he has the card that if the establishment wants to go anti trump, it has to be either him or Kasich. Rubio is toast. Crushed in his own state. He needs to walk away and realize he'll have another shot 4 years from now (because I don't see Trump winning the white house and while Cruz has a better chance, I don't see that either; Kasich or Rubio could win but that doens't appear to matter).

 

I guess if all of them stay in, maybe it keeps the delegate count low enough that you get to a brokered convention and at that point, all bets are off (that said, by that point, the republican party will be so splintered, it would be hard to actually rally behind whomever is truly selected (and I'm sure if Trump loses he'd go independent).

 

Florida hasn't happened yet.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 07:44 PM)
Does the kkk exist outside of being a media boogeyman? I mean they do, but when is the last time they've been relevant outside of that? There's been a couple incidents here and there I'm sure, but seriously they are the niche of the absolute niche locked in the backwoods of absolutely nowhere and I cannot grasp so much time is wasted on them.

Their was a KKK incident in Anaheim, California last weekend where three people were killed. If it exists in the melting pot of OC (which is a relatively diverse place), than I'm going to guess it is exists a lot more in more racially divisive areas.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 05:56 AM)
They are not as public as they used to be, but KKK is very real.

 

You are damned right it was real. I couldn't believe how real it still is in some small towns.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 11:09 AM)
Cruz had a strong enough showing that he has the card that if the establishment wants to go anti trump, it has to be either him or Kasich. Rubio is toast. Crushed in his own state. He needs to walk away and realize he'll have another shot 4 years from now (because I don't see Trump winning the white house and while Cruz has a better chance, I don't see that either; Kasich or Rubio could win but that doens't appear to matter).

 

I guess if all of them stay in, maybe it keeps the delegate count low enough that you get to a brokered convention and at that point, all bets are off (that said, by that point, the republican party will be so splintered, it would be hard to actually rally behind whomever is truly selected (and I'm sure if Trump loses he'd go independent).

Can't keep the delegate counts low for long. March 15th they start being winner take all (or most). Trump ahead of Romney, McCain at same point. It's over. Don't even see a brokered convention path. Trump has absolutely no competition in the Northeast (once Kasich drops, but even then he's not losing these states) which have huge number of delegates coming and no competition in the South at this point. Rubio can compete in the Midwest (maybe) and Cruz can compete in the southwest but Trump is still solid enough there where he's close and not losing much.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 11:26 AM)
Can't keep the delegate counts low for long. March 15th they start being winner take all (or most). Trump ahead of Romney, McCain at same point. It's over. Don't even see a brokered convention path. Trump has absolutely no competition in the Northeast (once Kasich drops, but even then he's not losing these states) which have huge number of delegates coming and no competition in the South at this point. Rubio can compete in the Midwest (maybe) and Cruz can compete in the southwest but Trump is still solid enough there where he's close and not losing much.

Math says it is far from over. Trump has the easiest path of course, but it's all relative. He's still going to have to perform even stronger than he has to go to convention with an untouchable majority, and that isn't the most likely scenario. I'd put Trump's shot at the nomination less than 50% at this point.

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 11:50 AM)
IfLsYwE.jpg

 

Trumy effect one way or the other.

That's a neat trick with far less than half the 2016 season over. Also ignores the stark reality that the Dems have had only two candidates basically all season. I assume the asterisk means they are projecting based on states so far.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 06:52 PM)
That's a neat trick with far less than half the 2016 season over. Also ignores the stark reality that the Dems have had only two candidates basically all season. I assume the asterisk means they are projecting based on states so far.

 

There's nothing really tricky about the numbers. They're related to Super Tuesday only, so the timeframe doesn't matter.

 

2008 had a hotly contested Dem race. 2016 has a hotly contested Rep race.

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QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 11:59 AM)
There's nothing really tricky about the numbers. They're related to Super Tuesday only, so the timeframe doesn't matter.

 

2008 had a hotly contested Dem race. 2016 has a hotly contested Rep race.

Ah, my bad then on the Super Tuesday thing. And yeah, one way or another (which I assume B>W was getting at), Trump's presence certainly has an effect.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 09:42 AM)
Math says it is far from over. Trump has the easiest path of course, but it's all relative. He's still going to have to perform even stronger than he has to go to convention with an untouchable majority, and that isn't the most likely scenario. I'd put Trump's shot at the nomination less than 50% at this point.

Statistically, I don't know how Trump's shot isn't in excess of 90%. He's going to destroy everyone in Florida and polls strong in a lot of the winner take all states.

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I'm glad Christie is getting a proverbial beatdown for backing Trump. Hypocrite.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 12:05 PM)
Statistically, I don't know how Trump's shot isn't in excess of 90%. He's going to destroy everyone in Florida and polls strong in a lot of the winner take all states.

See the long-form post I wrote (and edited with some help from B>W). If Trump does proportionally as he's doing now, he has to win a large chunk of the WTA states as well. Certainly possible, but by no means 90%.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 2, 2016 -> 10:26 AM)
See the long-form post I wrote (and edited with some help from B>W). If Trump does proportionally as he's doing now, he has to win a large chunk of the WTA states as well. Certainly possible, but by no means 90%.

Yeah, I thought that post was a great one, but I think you are severely underscoring those WTA states, with a lot of them being states where Trump is heavily favored. With no one exiting, I see it pretty unlikely Trump loses a good chunk of those states. I also think "winner" momentum is a real thing.

 

I hope to hell you are right, but at this point, I have given up most any hope possible around a quality candidate. I have decided I'm going to have to give Cruz more attention and start to dig more on him to see if their is more than meets the eye. I just think so much of what is wrong in Washington is everyone holing up to their party alliances and no one being willing to actually broker a deal and do real legislation, etc. I see Cruz as a president who will usher a gigantic standstill (unless the repubs have control everywhere, which with what is happening now, I find far more unlikely). Now if someone can actually somehow just get Trump by the jugular and dominate from here on out and win normally, that would clearly allow the party to get back in control of things (but at this point, outside of murder, Trump seems unstoppable).

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What would stop a party from just kicking Trump out? Outside of totally upsetting half of the base?

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