Sox should trade for Andre Ethier

[shysocks]

I want to point out a great post from the Fowler thread.

 

Did you know Fowler is 25th among all active players in OBP according to baseball-reference and is based upon their parameters of 3000PA or 500 games played? Did you also know that every player higher than him on that list has had a 20+ HR season before? Every player on the list outside of Joe Mauer are still legit threats to hit 20+ HR a year still. Fowler is very elite OBP guy and considering nearly everyone ahead of him has the benefit of being pitched around due to their big time power. He has really elite OBP skills for not being a power hitter.

I cut it off early, so click on the little arrow up there to see the rest. That is a good, compelling argument, but I think in general people are underestimating the money Fowler will get and are too quick to dismiss the value of the comp pick. I'm focused on the guy one spot below Fowler on that active career OBP list, Andre Ethier. Ethier has done it playing his entire career in a pitchers' park rather than mostly in Colorado. The Sox should trade for him for a number of reasons.

 

1) The most important is that he is a hitting machine. All he does is slap up seasons with 15 homers, a .360 OBP, and solid health. He does it year after year, with one ugly outlier in 2014.

 

2) He is left-handed, which will help balance the lineup, and he tortures right-handed pitching (.304/.383/.507 career). Unfortunately he has never been good against lefties, and we might even benefit from sitting him against them in favor of Avi or Jerry Sands. The Sox performed second-worst in the majors against left-handed pitching last year and you might say that adding Ethier would exacerbate things, but the addition of Todd Frazier (.833 OPS career against lefties) and a likely correction in Jose Abreu's splits (.658 OPS vs LHP in 2015, 1.098 in 2014) will offset any additional problems caused by Ethier.

 

3) He is primarily a corner outfielder so he doesn't require us to move Eaton around, something I'm not a big fan of. He got bad defensive marks at the beginning of his career, but in the last five years both DRS and UZR have him as essentially average. I would like a good fielder, I really would, but Ethier is a guy I can live with.

 

4) I'm only guessing here, but there are a lot of things that will conspire to make the cost of acquiring him even less of a blow to our minors than giving up the Samardzija pick. His age (34 in April), his salary ($36.5M guaranteed over two years), the Dodgers' jam-packed outfield (Puig, Pederson, Crawford, Van Slyke, Thompson), Ethier's 10-and-5 rights that kick in at the start of the season, his unhappiness with the Dodgers in the past... Trade rumors have bounced around him for years and while they might rather move Crawford, if the Dodgers are in any way inclined to get rid of Ethier, they are better off doing it now before his no-trade limits the market. I don't think you'd have to dig real deep in the system to get Ethier as long as you're willing to take his contract.

 

I understand the reservations people will have about his age, the money, the fact that he is an NL lifer (though I particularly don't share that concern). Maybe you'd like more power but we're hard-pressed to find that now. It is not a slam dunk, but he is a really good hitter who would fit into our lineup terrifically. If we supposedly had the money to chase Gordon and Cespedes but were concerned about the length of their deals, well here's a pretty friggin' good alternative.

[blackmooncreeping]

I want to point out a great post from the Fowler thread.

 

 

I cut it off early, so click on the little arrow up there to see the rest. That is a good, compelling argument, but I think in general people are underestimating the money Fowler will get and are too quick to dismiss the value of the comp pick. I'm focused on the guy one spot below Fowler on that active career OBP list, Andre Ethier. Ethier has done it playing his entire career in a pitchers' park rather than mostly in Colorado. The Sox should trade for him for a number of reasons.

 

1) The most important is that he is a hitting machine. All he does is slap up seasons with 15 homers, a .360 OBP, and solid health. He does it year after year, with one ugly outlier in 2014.

 

2) He is left-handed, which will help balance the lineup, and he tortures right-handed pitching (.304/.383/.507 career). Unfortunately he has never been good against lefties, and we might even benefit from sitting him against them in favor of Avi or Jerry Sands. The Sox performed second-worst in the majors against left-handed pitching last year and you might say that adding Ethier would exacerbate things, but the addition of Todd Frazier (.833 OPS career against lefties) and a likely correction in Jose Abreu's splits (.658 OPS vs LHP in 2015, 1.098 in 2014) will offset any additional problems caused by Ethier.

 

3) He is primarily a corner outfielder so he doesn't require us to move Eaton around, something I'm not a big fan of. He got bad defensive marks at the beginning of his career, but in the last five years both DRS and UZR have him as essentially average. I would like a good fielder, I really would, but Ethier is a guy I can live with.

 

4) I'm only guessing here, but there are a lot of things that will conspire to make the cost of acquiring him even less of a blow to our minors than giving up the Samardzija pick. His age (34 in April), his salary ($36.5M guaranteed over two years), the Dodgers' jam-packed outfield (Puig, Pederson, Crawford, Van Slyke, Thompson), Ethier's 10-and-5 rights that kick in at the start of the season, his unhappiness with the Dodgers in the past... Trade rumors have bounced around him for years and while they might rather move Crawford, if the Dodgers are in any way inclined to get rid of Ethier, they are better off doing it now before his no-trade limits the market. I don't think you'd have to dig real deep in the system to get Ethier as long as you're willing to take his contract.

 

I understand the reservations people will have about his age, the money, the fact that he is an NL lifer (though I particularly don't share that concern). Maybe you'd like more power but we're hard-pressed to find that now. It is not a slam dunk, but he is a really good hitter who would fit into our lineup terrifically. If we supposedly had the money to chase Gordon and Cespedes but were concerned about the length of their deals, well here's a pretty friggin' good alternative.

Sign me up if the Dodgers send a bunch of cash, or take Laroche. Either definitely rakes against RHP, and Sox could obviously use a left handed bat in the lineup.

[chw42]

Just looked over his stats the past few years and you're right. Good OBP, decent power, won't kill you in the OF. $36.5 million over the next two years isn't terrible. We can probably get him for almost nothing as well, considering it's more or less a salary dump.

[caulfield12]

Just looked over his stats the past few years and you're right. Good OBP, decent power, won't kill you in the OF. $36.5 million over the next two years isn't terrible. We can probably get him for almost nothing as well, considering it's more or less a salary dump.

 

For that price, just sign the much younger everyday player in Upton.

 

And, if he's sitting against lefties with that salary, it's almost like paying him $24-25 million. We had the same problem with Cabrera last year as well.

 

 

A Thome-like subsidy to cut his contract down to $12-14 million, it starts to make more sense.

 

 

 

[Quin]

Well, Upton already signed so that won't happen.

[shysocks]

The more money you ask the Dodgers to send over, the less it makes sense. I think you minimize the cost in young talent and just take the whole contract. If I were okay with giving up more in prospects, I'd just advocate for signing Fowler.

 

Ethier earned his money last year as a platoon player, posting 2.9 WAR despite fewer than 50 PA's against lefties. I don't see why he can't do it again.

[BlackSox13]

What the Sox would have to give up to get Ethier is more concerning to me than Ethier's age and salary. If acquiring Ethier doesn't cost the Sox much, then I'm all for it and especially if the deal includes Avi going to the Dodgers, which is likely wishful thinking unless the Dodgers see Avi as a platoon partner for Crawford in LF.

 

The way I look at is that Fowler costs a comp pick to sign so if Ethier can be had for the equivalent or less than that comp pick then fine, otherwise I would make a strong push for Fowler.

[blackmooncreeping]

What the Sox would have to give up to get Ethier is more concerning to me than Ethier's age and salary. If acquiring Ethier doesn't cost the Sox much, then I'm all for it and especially if the deal includes Avi going to the Dodgers, which is likely wishful thinking unless the Dodgers see Avi as a platoon partner for Crawford in LF.

 

The way I look at is that Fowler costs a comp pick to sign so if Ethier can be had for the equivalent or less than that comp pick then fine, otherwise I would make a strong push for Fowler.

Well summarized; Either can work if Fowler isn't in the Sox plans, but I'd rather be paying Fowler $10 million plus a year than Either. Or less than $10 million a year for Austin Jackson maybe...and we don't have to do anything but give up a pick.

[bigruss]

Edited the title to make it seem more like a proposal then a done thing to avoid any confusion.

[Quin]

Well summarized; Either can work if Fowler isn't in the Sox plans, but I'd rather be paying Fowler $10 million plus a year than Either. Or less than $10 million a year for Austin Jackson maybe...and we don't have to do anything but give up a pick.

 

A late first rounder isn't something to just throw away.

 

I know Hostetler is fresh to the position, but I was a big fan of his 2015 picks (he picked everyone but Fulmer).

 

[OmarComing25]

If we're willing to take on almost the entire salary, he should cost less than we what gave up for Lawrie.

[Kyyle23]

Edited the title to make it seem more like a proposal then a done thing to avoid any confusion.

 

shysocks is a snakeoil salesman like that. you gotta watch him close

[BlackSox13]

Well summarized; Either can work if Fowler isn't in the Sox plans, but I'd rather be paying Fowler $10 million plus a year than Either. Or less than $10 million a year for Austin Jackson maybe...and we don't have to do anything but give up a pick.

Jackson is another name I'm not against although he provides the least offensive upgrade of the three. Jackson does have three things going for him though 1) cheapest salary of the three 2) best defense of the three 3) won't cost prospects or a comp pick to sign.

 

I would be fine with any of those three but as of right now, my order of preference would be Fowler, Ethier, Jackson. I will admit this, my mind can change directions like the wind so that order is subject to change at any given time.

 

I can see good points for all three and that's why I kind of bounce back and forth on those three and even Desmond. Glad I'm not Rick Hahn, lol.

[shysocks]

If we're willing to take on almost the entire salary, he should cost less than we what gave up for Lawrie.

That's what I assume. If they want more, especially if it approaches the value of a comp pick, you say no thanks.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Jackson is another name I'm not against although he provides the least offensive upgrade of the three. Jackson does have three things going for him though 1) cheapest salary of the three 2) best defense of the three 3) won't cost prospects or a comp pick to sign.

 

I would be fine with any of those three but as of right now, my order of preference would be Fowler, Ethier, Jackson. I will admit this, my mind can change directions like the wind so that order is subject to change at any given time.

 

I can see good points for all three and that's why I kind of bounce back and forth on those three and even Desmond. Glad I'm not Rick Hahn, lol.

I agree with this.

 

I think the best options for the Sox are either Fowler + Latos, Desmond + Jackson, or Jackson + Latos.

 

At this point, I think I'd be ok with any of those 3 scenarios.

[shysocks]

Edited the title to make it seem more like a proposal then a done thing to avoid any confusion.

shysocks is a snakeoil salesman like that. you gotta watch him close

[Dick Allen]

The problem with Jackson is he is a Boras guy, and those aren't easy negotiations unless you are willing to pay a lot of money. Boras has no problem waiting until spring training and beyond.

 

If you are willing to meet his price, you can have a press conference tomorrow. But that isn't going to be the bargain we all were hoping for.

[chw42]

For that price, just sign the much younger everyday player in Upton.

 

And, if he's sitting against lefties with that salary, it's almost like paying him $24-25 million. We had the same problem with Cabrera last year as well.

 

 

A Thome-like subsidy to cut his contract down to $12-14 million, it starts to make more sense.

 

It's 2 years vs. 6 though...

 

[southsider2k5]

If we're willing to take on almost the entire salary, he should cost less than we what gave up for Lawrie.

 

If we take on the entire salary, the Dodgers should give us prospects.

[bmags]

If we take on the entire salary, the Dodgers should give us prospects.

 

Yeah, but LA doesn't care about money.

[bmags]

Hey OP, that was a great post. I don't really want to go with either...or ETHIER

[shysocks]

Hey OP, that was a great post. I don't really want to go with either...or ETHIER

Thanks. His name is hard to type. =(

[BlackSox13]

I agree with this.

 

I think the best options for the Sox are either Fowler + Latos, Desmond + Jackson, or Jackson + Latos.

 

At this point, I think I'd be ok with any of those 3 scenarios.

I like the Fowler/Latos idea best but, like you, I'd be fine with any of those three combos.

[bmags]

Thanks. His name is hard to type. =(

 

BTW I did not know you mispelled it, I just threw it on at the end.

 

I really did like your post.

 

The thing that kills me is at a high level trading Trayce Thompson to the Dodgers and then getting back Ethier just really seems like the operations of a not savvy front office.

[shysocks]

BTW I did not know you mispelled it, I just threw it on at the end.

 

I really did like your post.

 

The thing that kills me is at a high level trading Trayce Thompson to the Dodgers and then getting back Ethier just really seems like the operations of a not savvy front office.

Ha, that is true. Moving from Gillaspie/Beckham to Frazier as your Opening Day third baseman would be part of that process too, and that helps take the sting away.