Adam Engel - legitimate starting OF prospect?

[NorthSideSox72]

Future Sox is in the process of ramping up some new writers. The first of this wave to publish an article is Matt Lynch, who is MDL27 on SoxTalk.

 

Matt's debut post is taking a look at Adam Engel and asking if he's really a potential starting outfielder. Bonus: Matt saw Engel play live in college.

 

Give his post a read, and welcome him aboard!

 

[Eminor3rd]

Great work, Matt. Welcome!

[CyAcosta41]

Great article. I've followed Engel's career fairly closely and dug up as many scouting reports as I could find, but you dug up many things that were new to me. Thanks to you and Future Sox for being such valuable resources.

 

It's always nice to learn as much as possible about all the players in the system, including the key players. And Adam Engel IS a key player.

 

For one thing, he's an all-world athlete and if you squint and dream a little, you can see Mike Trout Lite in Engel -- less power, a little more speed (or at least a little more interest/reason in using that speed), and the ability to change the game in many different ways.

 

But for another reason, he's just a key player for the Sox as an organization. They've changed up their drafting philosophy a bit, but Engel may be the first of our positional "tool chest" prospects -- incredible athletic tools, but unrefined baseball abilities -- to have even a glimmer of real hope that he might develop into something close to his ceiling.

 

It seemed that sooner or later SOMEONE had to break out. It didn't have to happen -- as applied to any individual player, low odds are low odds -- but over a long period of time, it sure seemed that SOMEONE, ANYONE, had to break out.

 

It's too early to tell on Engel for reasons detailed in the article. He hasn't done it nearly long enough. Pitchers will now have a chance to adapt to the new and improved Adam Engel. And, sure, Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado were AFL MVPs as well. However, I spent great deal of time in Arizona in 2008 and watched perhaps 20 fall league games. Tommy Hanson was the MVP and looked like Walter Johnson reincarnated. And the immortal Tyler Flowers was as dominant of an offensive performer as could be imagined -- hitting a HR every other game (or so it seemed), and rope after rope in each game. KW fell head over heels in love with this GREAT catching prospect (really? Kenny? doing that?), with the hope that maybe one day his defense might catch-up to his sure to be legendary offensive prowess. We all know how that turned out. And in 2007, the year before, the AFL MVP was the mighty Sam Fuld.

 

Still, I have high hopes for Engel. With his tools, he could be a monster. Trout might be (!) hyperbolic, but, I'll take a young Torii Hunter. And wouldn't that be an unexpected bonus!

Edited February 5, 2016 by CyAcosta41

[oldsox]

This, from the same poster, who, in another thread, implied that General Managers are among the smartest people on earth.

[caulfield12]

There always tends to be a bit of an overreaction, both positive and negative, to AFL results.

 

There are lots of positive signals with Engel, but one of the most difficult jumps in baseball is from High A to AA.

 

Typically, Birmingham has been difficult also because the stadium was the minor league equivalent of playing in Oakland, but the new stadium's playing much fairer. If he can put up an 800+ ops for a full year playing for the Barons, that will elevate his prospect status.

 

Last year, he was at only 704, and that's a somewhat worrisome number. As a collegiate player, he put up that line at age 23. Typically, the high school and international prospects are seeing that same level of competition at age 19-21 (like Courtney Hawkins). That said, he's on a positive arc in his development, compared to where he was just a couple of seasons ago.

 

Instead of Torii Hunter, maybe a better comp is Aaron Rowand with more speed and less power. He also had a little Adam Eaton to his game as well. But, yeah, physically....he does show a pretty strong resemblance to Trout.

 

Engel also has only 17 career minor league homers to go with roughly 1200 at-bats...including 279 k's and 121 walks. He's going to have to increase his walk rate and cut his K's down to 15-20% to be a starter in the major leagues.

Edited February 5, 2016 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Not really a fan of that swing, long loading mechanism and really doesn't seem to have the type of bat speed needed to turn on MLB fastballs and drive the ball. Seems like his lower half is fighting his top half at times as well. That said, that's just like my opinion from watching half a dozen swings in the cage. Obviously he has some skills but I think Caulfield made a good point about his age and level and performance as well. He's supposed to make strides given his relative age -- if he can hold his own at AA with the bat then maybe you talk about him as an MLB regular. Personally I see a speedy 4th OF at best.

Edited February 5, 2016 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

The other danger we've seen with White Sox farm systems the last decade is the fact that we end up with players 4-10 who often wouldn't even be ranked in other organizations.

 

There's a tendency to overrate or overvalue those players, as it's human nature to look for positives since what else do fans have?

 

And there are lots of compelling human interest stories in our system, too, like Eddy Alvarez. Blake Hickman was another prospect last year (have some bias as a fellow Hawkeye on that one). Last year, Montas and Trayce Thompson.

 

But that STILL shouldn't take away the focus from the fact that the major league roster is lacking in 4 key positions.

Edited February 5, 2016 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Not really a fan of that swing, long loading mechanism and really doesn't seem to have the type of bat speed needed to turn on MLB fastballs and drive the ball. Seems like his lower half is fighting his top half at times as well. That said, that's just like my opinion from watching half a dozen swings in the cage. Obviously he has some skills but I think Caulfield made a good point about his age and level and performance as well. He's supposed to make strides given his relative age -- if he can hold his own at AA with the bat then maybe you talk about him as an MLB regular. Personally I see a speedy 4th OF at best.

 

Is your opinion of his swing Pre-AFL, where he changed his swing and saw instant and eye-popping results? Because I think that's significant to those who ask if his AFL results were random.

[CyAcosta41]

This, from the same poster, who, in another thread, implied that General Managers are among the smartest people on earth.

 

Oldsox ...

 

If you're referring to me, what you should have inferred from my comments about White Sox GM Rick Hahn and others who emerge from the wannabes of the world to reach the highest level of their chosen profession, wasn't that they're among the smartest people on Earth; instead, I stated directly (no need for inference) that Hahn and other GMs are not the blubbering imbeciles and incompetents that so many hyperbolic amateur-GMs would make them out to be.

 

What I said is give the professionals some credit for being professionals. And working hard to do the specialist's job that they're paid handsomely to do. Just like most Cutler critical Bears fans aren't likely to hit the open receiver better than Jay, even though they think they can. Or most Holberg critical Bulls fans aren't likely to meld this divided flawed roster into a well-oiled machine better than Fred, even though they think they can. Similarly, it's not likely some armchair GM without years of experience and networking contacts out the wazoo will make baseball GM decisions at a better rate of success than the GM of [insert the GM of your favorite team here], even though they think they can.

 

That said, are GMs infallible? Are they always right? Of course not. I never said nor implied any such thing.

 

Moreover, predicting the career potential of baseball players is every bit as much art as science. It may be one of the hardest tasks in all of sports. Harder than hitting a baseball for a living. A superstar hitter fails 7 out of 10 times. Hit with 7 out of 10 draft picks and you're a God. Hit with 7 out of 10 first round draft picks and you're the best GM ever. And it's never any one GM's solo domain -- it involves scouts at all levels as well as other executives in the organization (often including ownership) where money questions are involved.

 

In any given draft, once you get past the dozen or so super-studs, and the more or less consensus first-rounders, the hit rate to make the bigs among the rest is awful. In evaluating prospects, we're talking about so much more than the measurable -- we're talking about projecting continued improvement, mental and physical toughness, and sure, even Hawk's TWTW. If it were pure science, somehow I don't think Mike Trout would have made it to Pick 24, or Paul Goldschmidt to Pick 246, or Mark Buehrle to Pick 1139.

Edited February 5, 2016 by CyAcosta41

[Dunt]

If he can just be Kevin Kiermaier, I'd put that as a major win for the Sox farm system

[CyAcosta41]

If he can just be Kevin Kiermaier, I'd put that as a major win for the Sox farm system

 

Amen. I'd take that.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Is your opinion of his swing Pre-AFL, where he changed his swing and saw instant and eye-popping results? Because I think that's significant to those who ask if his AFL results were random.

 

Well the video I was watching was him at the recent Sox "hitting clinic" so yea. I don't pretend to be an expert on the baseball swing by any stretch but I do know that guys that have that big of a load mechanism (recent Sox example has to be Brent Morel) -- often will struggle to adjust to the additional 2-5mph they are going to see on fastballs at MLB level.

 

We'll see if he can produced this year at AA that will be the big measuring stick. Everything he's done so far points to progress but he's also old for his level and this will be his first chance to prove he's a legit prospect IMO.

[GreenSox]

The other danger we've seen with White Sox farm systems the last decade is the fact that we end up with players 4-10 who often wouldn't even be ranked in other organizations.

That's clearly changed over the last few years has drafting and development has improved significantly.

Excited to see what Engel does this year.

Edited February 9, 2016 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

That's clearly changed over the last few years has drafting and development has improved significantly.

 

Nevertheless, we only have one position player currently projected to be a big league regular at the moment.

[GreenSox]

Nevertheless, we only have one position player currently projected to be a big league regular at the moment.

I'm not sure where you get that.

But even if true, it's because we traded a bunch of them. The As and Dodgers thought more of our farm than the Sox brass or the writers did (although Law did have us in the top 15 last year).

Edited February 9, 2016 by GreenSox