Jake Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Will be interesting to see what Sox are thinking about 5-man rotation. How much better of a bet is Latos than Erik Johnson? Is John Danks a better bet than either one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:33 PM) No good reason to trade Johnson unless you are getting a good young RF for him. Odds are good you will need both him and Turner this year. Unless you can get a certain maligned but talented Marlins' outfielder...would require more than Johnson and Garcia, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:34 PM) Anyway possible to build a package around Johnson for Puig? And not being laughed out of the building? _________ This is a low risk, low reward move IMO. I really don't see how a guy that hasn't pitched a full season in over four years is gonna turn it around abut hey Coop'el'fix'em right? If someone gets hurt and he steps into the 5th starter role he has more upside than Beck or similar AAAA fodder so that's good but I'm not expecting much from him. Edit: doh, looking at his B-Ref page all wrong. Well, he has been pitching full seasons. This is a better move than I thought. Edited February 9, 2016 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 11:34 AM) Anyway possible to build a package around Johnson for Puig? No way. Johnson probably gets you Ethier and some cash but no way he is a centerpiece for Puig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 11:33 AM) 1 I believe. If so, I like this. When Latos' arm blows up or if Danks is ineffective Johnson could see plenty of starts this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 (edited) In before someone calls this "low risk, high reward" edit- I was too late Edited February 9, 2016 by Jose Abreu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:24 PM) There is no such thing as low risk / high reward. Please stop it. You can say it is a low-risk signing, because it is. It's only 1/$3M. But the concept is high risk / high reward or low risk / low reward, because risk isn't about what happened in the end. It's about the chances of something happening in the future. If there is a high chance of a high reward, that person isn't signing for $3M. It is also about the LIKELY reward, since obviously ANY investment could go big or go bad. Same in baseball as any other investment. So this is low risk / low reward. And that's fine. Now go get a bloody right fielder. While this entire argument is stupid, I will repeat that we're not talking equities here & MLB free agency is a constrained market. We're paying a guy to be a 0.5 WAR player who also has a chance of being a 3+ WAR player. While he may not reach his 3+ WAR ceiling, the probability of him not earning his contract is nearly impossible and the possibility of him greatly exceeding it (2 WAR seems like a realistic floor) is highly likely. By your very definition, it's a low risk/high reward signing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'd rather have Johnson starting every 5th day but there's also nothing to be mad about signing a guy for 3 mill that could possibly help the team win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Latos also gave up 9 ER in 2/3 of an inning on opening day last year. You take that start out and his ERA is a much more palatable 4.25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knackattack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Low Risk/High Reward is definitely a thing.. the probability of high reward is very small but the cost of the player is so low that it's worth the shot.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice move by the Sox FO. Hopefully Latos stays healthy and pitches closer to his 2010-14 numbers. Who knows, maybe he turns out to be the bargain of the off season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 (edited) Guy on the Score just guessed Latos was 28. Edit: Whoops I meant he guessed 34. Edited February 9, 2016 by Chicago White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:01 PM) Sour grapes, but would have rather had Henderson Alvarez for 1.25 m more Alvarez is a bit more of a gamble coming off the shoulder injury though. Shoulder injuries are really tricky to recover from, see John Danks. He would have been teammates with Frazier, so there is at least some background there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:40 PM) Low Risk/High Reward is definitely a thing.. the probability of high reward is very small but the cost of the player is so low that it's worth the shot.. Agree...it exists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:39 PM) While this entire argument is stupid, I will repeat that we're not talking equities here & MLB free agency is a constrained market. We're paying a guy to be a 0.5 WAR player who also has a chance of being a 3+ WAR player. While he may not reach his 3+ WAR ceiling, the probability of him not earning his contract is nearly impossible and the possibility of him greatly exceeding it (2 WAR seems like a realistic floor) is highly likely. By your very definition, it's a low risk/high reward signing. Spot on. Wasn't Danks at 1.8 last year? On the current fa pitching market, that's supposedly worth $12-14 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Knackattack @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Low Risk/High Reward is definitely a thing.. the probability of high reward is very small but the cost of the player is so low that it's worth the shot.. Right, in this case he's not blocking a prospect and he's not taking a 25 man spot away from anyone that's a difference maker so there's not much opportunity cost there. It's three million, which is chicken scratch in today's market and he could possibly bounce back and have a 2-3 WAR season. It's a fine deal, they probably were able to convince him to sign based on playing time and Cooper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:02 PM) Latos may be an asshole, but this is a very solid move. Danks & Johnson competing against Latos for the #4 & #5 spots is way better than them competing against Turner and now we actually have some depth (assuming Johnson starts in AAA). How many options does Johnson have left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Do not confuse risk with price. Risk =/= Price. They're associated, but you also have to factor in the likelihood of different levels of performance. A lottery ticket - a literal, actual lottery ticket - is high risk/high reward because even though it only costs a dollar, there is an overwhelmingly high chance of losing. The potential gain is great. Latos is closer to a lottery ticket than, I dunno, keeping your money under the mattress (which is low risk/low reward). Didn't mean to derail the thread, but I think the chances of Latos being a dud are greater than people are admitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
napa_soxfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Could certainly be better than Shark was. Nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There's gotta be incentives in this contract right? Very rarely do you see a guy 2 years removed from being a top tier pitcher take a flat $3 million one year deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Vance Law @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:38 PM) If so, I like this. When Latos' arm blows up or if Danks is ineffective Johnson could see plenty of starts this year. Johnson is wound pretty tight. I think he is going to be ready for spring training. If he earns a spot in the rotation but gets sent back to Charlotte, I think he could unravel. I was at Soxfest when he was talking about his routine. He sounded like he was in the military. If I were RH, if Johnson doesn't make the roster out of spring training through no fault of his own, I'm trading him. I think he may lose a screw if he's sent back to Charlotte if he deserved a spot on the major league team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:39 PM) While this entire argument is stupid, I will repeat that we're not talking equities here & MLB free agency is a constrained market. We're paying a guy to be a 0.5 WAR player who also has a chance of being a 3+ WAR player. While he may not reach his 3+ WAR ceiling, the probability of him not earning his contract is nearly impossible and the possibility of him greatly exceeding it (2 WAR seems like a realistic floor) is highly likely. By your very definition, it's a low risk/high reward signing. And even if the team struggles this year, Latos could also be a great deadline trade piece if he pitches even mediocre, because of his contract status. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Do not confuse risk with price. Risk =/= Price. They're associated, but you also have to factor in the likelihood of different levels of performance. A lottery ticket - a literal, actual lottery ticket - is high risk/high reward because even though it only costs a dollar, there is an overwhelmingly high chance of losing. The potential gain is great. Latos is closer to a lottery ticket than, I dunno, keeping your money under the mattress (which is low risk/low reward). Didn't mean to derail the thread, but I think the chances of Latos being a dud are greater than people are admitting. If this were Paulino, that would certainly be true... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:44 PM) There's gotta be incentives in this contract right? Very rarely do you see a guy 2 years removed from being a top tier pitcher take a flat $3 million one year deal. Probably just the promise to compete for a spot in the rotation out of spring. At this point, how many teams were offering that and were willing to just do a one year deal? He might have had a two year deal on the table elsewhere but decided to try and rebuild some value in Chicago. He has a good year for Chicago he could easily be looking at a two or even three year deal for 20+ million next offseason. Edited February 9, 2016 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Everybody is calling him an asshole, but without searching on Google can somebody tell me the story to why? Or is this like the AJ is an asshole thing where you just get a reputation because you want to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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