VAfan Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Last year, the White Sox had the worst offense in the AL by far, with 622 runs scored. (Next lowest was Seattle with 656 runs.) Hard to believe a team with that pathetic of an offense could win 76 games. The Sox were also last in HR at 136. I believe they were SO bad, that it turned the Cell from a plus HR field into a negative one! Here's what it looked like last year. 1B Abreu 30 2B Sanchez/Johnson 5 SS Ramirez 10 3B Gillaspie/Beckham/Saladino/Olt 16 DH LaRoche 12 LF Melky 12 CF Eaton 14 RF Garcia 13 C Flowers/Soto 18 Bench - Shuck/Thompson/Bonafacio/Brantly 5 Total 136 This year I expect. 1B Abreu 35. Should be better with protection behind him. 2B Lawrie 18. Could go higher if he stays healthy. SS Rollins/Saladino 16. Jimmy has hit more than that himself two years ago. 3B Frazier 35. This was his number last year, when he tailed off in the second half. DH LaRoche/Garcia 20. Could go higher if LaRoche can stay healthy. LF Melky 15. Should show some return to form after a horrid start to 2015. CF Jackson 9. What he hit last year. RF Eaton 14. What he hit last year. Bench. Shuck 0. What he hit last year. Total 182 That would put the Sox 6th in the AL based on last year's numbers. (I wanted to put in a nice table, but I can't figure out how to do it here.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Funny... I had a drive last night for an hour or so after hearing about the Jackson signing. I added up potential home run totals in my head and got 180. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaconOnAStick Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Funny... I had a drive last night for an hour or so after hearing about the Jackson signing. I added up potential home run totals in my head and got 180. I love White Sox fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 (edited) Composite projections from RotoChamp: Eaton: 10 Abreu: 31 Melky: 13 Frazier: 28 Lawrie/Sanchez: 21 LaRoche/Avi: 26 Navarro/Avila: 14 Jackson: 6 Rollins/Saladino: 12 Total: 161 It's a big boost over last season, but in order for that 182 number to happen, we'd either need some breakouts or for Frazier and Abreu to hit above their projections. Edited March 7, 2016 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 08:51 AM) Composite projections from RotoChamp: Eaton: 10 Abreu: 31 Melky: 13 Frazier: 28 Lawrie/Sanchez: 21 LaRoche/Avi: 26 Navarro/Avila: 14 Jackson: 6 Rollins/Saladino: 12 Total: 161 IMO - Frazier is low at 28 and the bench will account for at least 5 to 10 more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (VAfan @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 11:44 AM) Last year, the White Sox had the worst offense in the AL by far, with 622 runs scored. (Next lowest was Seattle with 656 runs.) Hard to believe a team with that pathetic of an offense could win 76 games. The Sox were also last in HR at 136. I believe they were SO bad, that it turned the Cell from a plus HR field into a negative one! Here's what it looked like last year. 1B Abreu 30 2B Sanchez/Johnson 5 SS Ramirez 10 3B Gillaspie/Beckham/Saladino/Olt 16 DH LaRoche 12 LF Melky 12 CF Eaton 14 RF Garcia 13 C Flowers/Soto 18 Bench - Shuck/Thompson/Bonafacio/Brantly 5 Total 136 This year I expect. 1B Abreu 35. Should be better with protection behind him. 2B Lawrie 18. Could go higher if he stays healthy. SS Rollins/Saladino 16. Jimmy has hit more than that himself two years ago. 3B Frazier 35. This was his number last year, when he tailed off in the second half. DH LaRoche/Garcia 20. Could go higher if LaRoche can stay healthy. LF Melky 15. Should show some return to form after a horrid start to 2015. CF Jackson 9. What he hit last year. RF Eaton 14. What he hit last year. Bench. Shuck 0. What he hit last year. Total 182 That would put the Sox 6th in the AL based on last year's numbers. (I wanted to put in a nice table, but I can't figure out how to do it here.) I think you're right that there will be an increase, but it's never safe to project every player to match his career high. It's just never going to turn out that way. I'd lop 15-20 homers off your total and feel like that's a modestly optimistic projection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (hi8is @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 10:53 AM) IMO - Frazier is low at 28 and the bench will account for at least 5 to 10 more. I feel like 30 is where he might end up. I'm cautiously optimistic about Frazier. He stumbled in the second half and he's coming into a new league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 10:56 AM) I feel like 30 is where he might end up. I'm cautiously optimistic about Frazier. He stumbled in the second half and he's coming into a new league. He's been looking pretty good thus far. I know it's spring training and all, but he looks ready for the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I would halve your SS estimate, and probably remove 10 off of Frazier. My "could exceed" estimates from the projections are AJax getting 10 with a full season, Eaton's power being real at 15 hrs. But 162 sounds about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I think that was Eaton's high water mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I think he found something, I really do. Not saying he ever gets to 20, but I think he'll have Aj pierczinski power. Some years hovering around 10, but real possibilities for high teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (RockRaines @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) I think that was Eaton's high water mark I agree. I see as more of an 8 to 10 homer guy regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 11:54 AM) I think you're right that there will be an increase, but it's never safe to project every player to match his career high. It's just never going to turn out that way. I'd lop 15-20 homers off your total and feel like that's a modestly optimistic projection. I didn't project career highs. I only looked at recent numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The early spring is going to help a bit as well IMO. I think closer to 200 than 150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 To me the most important factor is that every regular in the lineup could hit 10 or more HRs. Only JB Shuck has no power. Even Saladino had 4 dingers last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Realizing now that Rollins had better pop than I realized last year. Hoping him and Salad can get us closer to 14 HRs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The homerun totals for the team should be a boost vs last year but shouldn't be the major point for the sox making the playoffs. Pirates, royals and cards made the playoffs while ranking 23, 24, and 25 for homeruns in all of baseball. Issue is the Sox need to be scoring more runs overall. All AL teams that made the playoffs scored over 700 runs. Sox scored 622. Need to score alot more runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peppers312 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The homerun totals for the team should be a boost vs last year but shouldn't be the major point for the sox making the playoffs. Pirates, royals and cards made the playoffs while ranking 23, 24, and 25 for homeruns in all of baseball. Issue is the Sox need to be scoring more runs overall. All AL teams that made the playoffs scored over 700 runs. Sox scored 622. Need to score alot more runs i would agree with this. the White Sox couldn't get anyone on base last year, or when people were on base no one could drive them in. it was painful to watch. hopefully we get some timely hitting this year and we can avoid another horrible start from guys like Eaton and Melky to start the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (peppers312 @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 01:24 PM) i would agree with this. the White Sox couldn't get anyone on base last year, or when people were on base no one could drive them in. it was painful to watch. hopefully we get some timely hitting this year and we can avoid another horrible start from guys like Eaton and Melky to start the season. People that hit more home runs tend to hit more doubles. I realize that ideally we would want BOTH high OBP and power. But you said yourself "when they were on base no one could drive them in". Well especially in april/may/june, that was because it required 3 singles to get 1 run. We are talking about a likelihood of a 30 home run increase. At a minimum that is 30 more runs. Who knows how many games that wins with our pitching staff. Those teams have good obp and contact rates. The sox were bad at contact, obp and power. We at least improved power and that will be a very big help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The homerun totals for the team should be a boost vs last year but shouldn't be the major point for the sox making the playoffs. Pirates, royals and cards made the playoffs while ranking 23, 24, and 25 for homeruns in all of baseball. Issue is the Sox need to be scoring more runs overall. All AL teams that made the playoffs scored over 700 runs. Sox scored 622. Need to score alot more runs Just because there were a few teams without power that succeeded recently doesn't mean that we shouldn't be focused on increasing power whenever the opportunity arises. There's a strong correlation between homeruns and runs scored, and homeruns and wins. One of the best ways to score more runs overall is to hit more homeruns. Edited March 7, 2016 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxSteve Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Just because there were a few teams without power that succeeded recently doesn't mean that we shouldn't be focused on increasing power whenever the opportunity arises. There's a strong correlation between homeruns and runs scored, and homeruns and wins. One of the best ways to score more runs overall is to hit more homeruns. Our OBP really scares me. That is the main reason i wanted Fowler over Jackson and Desmond( if we went shortstop.) Eaton and Fowler 1-2 would have been deadly IMO. Jackson OBP has been sliding and Lowrie and Frazier have low OBP as well. Homers are great but if the last few World Series teams indicate its not a big deal. Eaton and Abrue are the only ones i have confidence in to have a good OBP. Just sayin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The mets rode power in the 2nd half and playoffs, and aside from the Royals, power was up and down the playoff teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 One of the reasons that 2014 Royals team steamrolled through the playoffs was because they went on a surprise homerun barrage in October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Just because there were a few teams without power that succeeded recently doesn't mean that we shouldn't be focused on increasing power whenever the opportunity arises. There's a strong correlation between homeruns and runs scored, and homeruns and wins. One of the best ways to score more runs overall is to hit more homeruns. Yes adding powers does go towards adding more runs but power isn't guaranteed there all the time. Need to be able to do other things as well. Better baserunning which definitely needs to improve from last year, working counts, getting guys on and then moving them over or bringing them in. Sox isn't built like a team with major power like the blue jays so they need other means of getting runs in. With a pitching staff they have they need to make it comfortable in games offensively otherwise you are worry all the time if they can score enough which adds alot of pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Mar 7, 2016 -> 02:10 PM) The homerun totals for the team should be a boost vs last year but shouldn't be the major point for the sox making the playoffs. Pirates, royals and cards made the playoffs while ranking 23, 24, and 25 for homeruns in all of baseball. Issue is the Sox need to be scoring more runs overall. All AL teams that made the playoffs scored over 700 runs. Sox scored 622. Need to score alot more runs White Sox play at US Cellular. They should be a HR hitting team to take advantage of that park. KC is a totally different ballpark. A HR heavy team wouldn't work there. The Sox are not going to bash like the teams that hit more than 200 HR every year, but in our ballpark, HRs are important. Edited March 8, 2016 by VAfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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