Garcia not playing the last few games

[OmarComing25]

I guess smoke and mirrors is too vague, it seem to mean more of a stretch to you than it does me. So insert your phrase for this team is winning more than expected and without continued luck and everything going right, it probably will not continue. They are winning in spite of and not because of the talent level of the team.

I do not agree that everything is going right, nor does this team need everything to go right. Plenty has gone wrong and they're still in first place. You're acting like this is a true talent 70-win team. Rollins, Navarro and Avila are all hitting worse than last year, with Jackson and Abreu hitting significantly worse than last year. Sale and Quintana have done amazingly well, but that's almost canceled out by the dropoff we have experienced from Rodon and Danks compared to last year (the 5th spot was a concern going into the year but it's been even worse than expected). Latos had a great start, but has already pitched poorly enough recently to get his numbers back to where projections had him. The bullpen pitched over its head in April, but a lot of that luck was canceled out by the disastrous last couple of weeks. I guess I'm just not seeing all the luck you're seeing. Lawrie and Avi have played above expectations but not outrageously so, Frazier is pretty much in line with what we expected, Melky bounced back to his 2014 numbers, and Eaton has been hitting like this since last May. Since you still haven't answered, who are the smoke and mirrors players? And why does someone playing above expectations mean they're certain to come back down, but someone underperforming doesn't mean they'll go back up? Everything is certainly not "going right", that seems like a gross exaggeration to fit your narrative.

 

Are you that high on the Indians/Royals/Tigers or am I just missing something here? What is the true talent of the White Sox in your opinion? Sure not many predictions had the White Sox making the playoffs, but it wasn't something that was totally unexpected either. Even Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron, who rarely says anything positive about the White Sox, wrote that there was a good chance the Sox would be good this year. No one thought the team was going to keep winning at a .700 win pace, but the talent of this team is still a lot better than you're giving it credit for.

Edited May 23, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Special K]

I do not agree that everything is going right, nor does this team need everything to go right. Plenty has gone wrong and they're still in first place. You're acting like this is a true talent 70-win team. Rollins, Navarro and Avila are all hitting worse than last year, with Jackson and Abreu hitting significantly worse than last year. Sale and Quintana have done amazingly well, but that's almost canceled out by the dropoff we have experienced from Rodon and Danks compared to last year (the 5th spot was a concern going into the year but it's been even worse than expected). Latos had a great start, but has already pitched poorly enough recently to get his numbers back to where projections had him. The bullpen pitched over its head in April, but a lot of that luck was canceled out by the disastrous last couple of weeks. I guess I'm just not seeing all the luck you're seeing. Lawrie and Avi have played above expectations but not outrageously so, Frazier is pretty much in line with what we expected, Melky bounced back to his 2014 numbers, and Eaton has been hitting like this since last May. Since you still haven't answered, who are the smoke and mirrors players? And why does someone playing above expectations mean they're certain to come back down, but someone underperforming doesn't mean they'll go back up? Everything is certainly not "going right", that seems like a gross exaggeration to fit your narrative.

 

Are you that high on the Indians/Royals/Tigers or am I just missing something here? What is the true talent of the White Sox in your opinion? Sure not many predictions had the White Sox making the playoffs, but it wasn't something that was totally unexpected either. Even Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron, who rarely says anything positive about the White Sox, wrote that there was a good chance the Sox would be good this year. No one thought the team was going to keep winning at a .700 win pace, but the talent of this team is still a lot better than you're giving it credit for.

 

I think you are missing his point, which is that this team is outperforming what they were expected to do. Very few, if any, would have predicted the Sox to be in first place at this point.

 

That fact that we keep out performing with an under performing DH gives me and probably other pause, as odds are the team will begin to suffer on offense with a hole at such a crucial position in the lineup.

 

[OmarComing25]

I think you are missing his point, which is that this team is outperforming what they were expected to do. Very few, if any, would have predicted the Sox to be in first place at this point.

 

That fact that we keep out performing with an under performing DH gives me and probably other pause, as odds are the team will begin to suffer on offense with a hole at such a crucial position in the lineup.

No I get his point just fine. He claims everything is going right, and that is patently false. And even if they have over performed, those wins are already in the bank. Even if you think the Sox are just a .500 team, that means you now expect them to win 85-86 games, which was enough for a playoff spot last year.

[Special K]

No I get his point just fine. He claims everything is going right, and that is patently false. And even if they have over performed, those wins are already in the bank. Even if you think the Sox are just a .500 team, that means you now expect them to win 85-86 games, which was enough for a playoff spot last year.

 

All fine. But all things considered, I'll still take another bat to upgrade what is sub-par offensive production for a position that is solely dedicating to producing offense. Not just looking to squeak by into a playoff spot.

[Panerista]

I think you are missing his point, which is that this team is outperforming what they were expected to do. Very few, if any, would have predicted the Sox to be in first place at this point.

 

That fact that we keep out performing with an under performing DH gives me and probably other pause, as odds are the team will begin to suffer on offense with a hole at such a crucial position in the lineup.

Agreed. But it's worse than that. We're underperforming at DH and 2 spot. Not a good sign in the least.

[caulfield12]

For the next month, the Royals will likely have most of the following players in their line-up:

 

Omar Infante, 0 homers in 121 at-bats, 605 OPS

Alcides Escobar, 0 homers in 189 at-bats, 604 OPS

Jarrod Dyson, 0 homers in 81 at-bats, 612 OPS

Paulo Orlando, 1 homer in 65 at-bats, 950 OPS

Cheslor Cuthbert, 1 homer in 51 at-bats, 642 OPS

Whit Merrifield, 0 homers in 13 at-bats

Christian Colon, 0 homers in 44 at-bats, 608 OPS

 

Granted, Moustakas will be back soon (got hurt in the collision with Gordon), but there's just no excuse not to beat a team with that type of offensive production.

 

Doesn't matter if they have the best defense in the world, and the best bullpen. And they don't. Infante is well below-average, Cuthbert has been moved from 3B to 2B and now back to 3B again (and potentially LF), Merrifield's a career journeyman and poor man's Ben Zobrist. Dyson has been shaky a few times as well as Cain (compared to his past standard). Losing Madson and swapping him for Soria has been a huge debacle, both in financial terms and with their late inning roles shifting.

 

Then you have Kendrys Morales with a 570 OPS.

 

Plus, two of the original members of their starting rotation are already out, and Joakim Soria has a WHIP of nearly 1.4.

 

 

 

All they have to do is be better than the Indians.

Edited May 24, 2016 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

That's a great Royals update in a Avi Garcia thread

[caulfield12]

The thread was ALSO suddenly about the White Sox chances to make the playoffs...

 

What I wrote wasn't germane? Avisail Garcia is a hitting machine compared to those numbers coming from the majority of that putrid offense. I, in a way, was supporting Omar's argument that not everything has been going right for the White Sox (Abreu, Lawrie and Garcia coming back to earth, Jackson struggling until yesterday, Latos returning to his expected norm/s, the Petricka injury throwing the White Sox bullpen into a little bit of chaos as Albers isn't ready to be a consistent high leverage reliever all season and god knows what's going on with Zach Duke, not to mention the catching situation) and that other competitors have even more problems to deal with, such as the disabled list claiming key contributors. The White Sox have survived all those things and still have a 2 1/2 game late in late May.

 

The only thing that MIGHT make a difference is the managers, in terms of 1-3 game spread between the Indians and White Sox.

 

As far as Garcia goes, it feels like Ventura is now going to go with gut/instinct on who to play for the time being between Sands and Avi, just like he's been juggling all season with Saladino and Rollins. Whether that's the fairest or best way to determine once and for all whether Avi can be a positive and effective contributor as a DH (primary), who knows? Something must have happened to put him in the doghouse...and I'm guessing it relates to not advancing runners or changing his approach for different in game situations. Could be just a managerial hunch, so we'll have to wait and see if an article comes out soon about this relatively new development.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Texsox]

I do not agree that everything is going right, nor does this team need everything to go right. Plenty has gone wrong and they're still in first place. You're acting like this is a true talent 70-win team. Rollins, Navarro and Avila are all hitting worse than last year, with Jackson and Abreu hitting significantly worse than last year. Sale and Quintana have done amazingly well, but that's almost canceled out by the dropoff we have experienced from Rodon and Danks compared to last year (the 5th spot was a concern going into the year but it's been even worse than expected). Latos had a great start, but has already pitched poorly enough recently to get his numbers back to where projections had him. The bullpen pitched over its head in April, but a lot of that luck was canceled out by the disastrous last couple of weeks. I guess I'm just not seeing all the luck you're seeing. Lawrie and Avi have played above expectations but not outrageously so, Frazier is pretty much in line with what we expected, Melky bounced back to his 2014 numbers, and Eaton has been hitting like this since last May. Since you still haven't answered, who are the smoke and mirrors players? And why does someone playing above expectations mean they're certain to come back down, but someone underperforming doesn't mean they'll go back up? Everything is certainly not "going right", that seems like a gross exaggeration to fit your narrative.

 

Are you that high on the Indians/Royals/Tigers or am I just missing something here? What is the true talent of the White Sox in your opinion? Sure not many predictions had the White Sox making the playoffs, but it wasn't something that was totally unexpected either. Even Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron, who rarely says anything positive about the White Sox, wrote that there was a good chance the Sox would be good this year. No one thought the team was going to keep winning at a .700 win pace, but the talent of this team is still a lot better than you're giving it credit for.

 

I see them as an 88 win team talent wise (preseason prediction). I believe at the time I made the original post they were on pace to win 95 to 100 games. I didn't think I was calling them a terrible baseball team, at least that is not my opinion. I just believe they would be overachieving to win 95 games and they would need everything to fall in place. You believe they have the talent to win 95 wins. I hope you are correct.

 

But out of 78 votes in the pre season prediction thread, 4 people had them winning more than 94 games. You had them at 84 games in that same thread. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=98487

[OmarComing25]

I see them as an 88 win team talent wise (preseason prediction). I believe at the time I made the original post they were on pace to win 95 to 100 games. I didn't think I was calling them a terrible baseball team, at least that is not my opinion. I just believe they would be overachieving to win 95 games and they would need everything to fall in place. You believe they have the talent to win 95 wins. I hope you are correct.

 

But out of 78 votes in the pre season prediction thread, 4 people had them winning more than 94 games. You had them at 84 games in that same thread. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=98487

Wait a minute, if you see them as an 88-win team talent wise then why would they need everything to go right to make the playoffs? I don't actually believe they are a 95-win team, I believe they're an 83-85 win team, but with the good start and the ability to add someone through trade at the deadline I see no reason why they can't win 87-91, which should put them right there for a playoff spot. I think I just have a problem with people misusing "regression to the mean". If you expect a guy to hit .250, if he's hitting .300 at the halfway point you don't expect him to hit .200 in the second half to make up for his overperformance, you still expect him to hit .250 and finish the season at .275. Same logic here. If you think the Sox are an 84 win team, but through 7 weeks they're playing at a 95-win pace, you don't expect the team to play below 84-win pace the rest of the year to get to that number, that doesn't make sense. You now adjust the expected wins upwards (in this case an 84 win pace the rest of the season means 87 wins), unless you see something that makes you think they're no longer an 84-win team like you thought.

[Texsox]

Because it has been taking 90+ wins to win the division most years. The wild card isn't anything I like to count on. Winning the division is.

[caulfield12]

That, and you have to adjust for variation in different team schedules.

 

It's one of the reasons some simulations (like FanGraphs) keep picking the Indians, and others the Sox (538.com).

 

Could be something as simple as White Sox facing the Cubs and the Indians sweeping the Reds. As I said in the Ventura thread, looking at that schedule that takes them to the end of late June, we have a boatload of what look like very tough or competitive games on paper until we get to the Twins again (and eventually they'll get on an offensive roll and we'll catch them at a bad time).

 

So Flavum and everyone can look at a record and say, we're 13 games over .500, all we need to do is play 1 over .500 and we'll end up at 88-74, etc., but that doesn't really look at the season holistically. By that theory, Minnesota at roughly this same time of the year last season should have had a really decent shot at making the playoffs, but we saw how that played out. And the caveat is that the Twins didn't have enough pitching (smoke and mirrors) and they faced a much more dynamic Royals team with Zobrist in the 2nd half. We also have no way of accounting for injuries and/or trade deadline moves (or non-moves, in the case of Shark last year). We certainly can't quantity "Ventura vs. Terry Francona down the stretch in August/September, or Ventura vs Ned Yost," either.

Edited May 24, 2016 by caulfield12