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White Sox Acquire James Shields

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 11:07 AM)
That is half an inning more, and it will go up once he isn't pinch hit for in the American League. You can see that pretty clearly in his pitches per start numbers and his IP/Start in the NL vs AL.

We'll see. If he performs as you suggest AND the Sox at least seriously contend for the playoffs, the trade will have worked.

 

But I think the only way this team contends is to do what this board has been begging them to do - trade any prospect necessary (with the requisite holdback of Anderson) for Brewers, Reds and Rockies. And it will be all or nothing for 16 and 17. And then nothing for a long time.

 

Me, I wish they had continued what they started in 2013 for 2 more years: a sensible build-up of organizational depth. that would have allowed for contention for years to come, starting in 17.

Edited by GreenSox

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I love this trade. Can't argue against it at all. But they need to go get more ASAP. I think they will too because this team needs more this lineup needs a bat most importantly.

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This trade is doing something for the sake of doing something. Shields experience can help the younger guys in the rotation but he isn't likely to fare much better than Gonzales or Latos have. He is supposedly a really good clubhouse guy which is a plus.

 

The Sox gave up nothing but some salary flexibility in this trade. But I don't really believe it did much to help this team win either.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:33 PM)
This trade is doing something for the sake of doing something. Shields experience can help the younger guys in the rotation but he isn't likely to fare much better than Gonzales or Latos have. He is supposedly a really good clubhouse guy which is a plus.

 

The Sox gave up nothing but some salary flexibility in this trade. But I don't really believe it did much to help this team win either.

 

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 10:33 AM)
This trade is doing something for the sake of doing something. Shields experience can help the younger guys in the rotation but he isn't likely to fare much better than Gonzales or Latos have. He is supposedly a really good clubhouse guy which is a plus.

 

The Sox gave up nothing but some salary flexibility in this trade. But I don't really believe it did much to help this team win either.

 

That's right. Coop has failed in that so far.

 

 

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IF he pitches well and the Sox continue to slide, they can dump him in 6 weeks for more than they gave up (if the FO is savvy and willing, both doubtful).

If he pitches well and the Sox contend, even better.

If he sucks, he's an albatross for 2.5 seasons.

 

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 10:24 AM)
Carl Crawford was just released by the Dodgers. Hahn's cell is likely being blown up by KW at this very minute.

 

Can Crawford be our #5 starter? It's not like anyone else has done the job.

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It would have been nice to have someone available to fill the offensive hole, but that wasn't to be. No use sitting around waiting and not doing anything else to improve the team. This was an modest improvement which becomes huge *if* other things fall in place.

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QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:24 PM)
I wonder if one of the reason they got Shields is possible trade bait before the deadline.

 

That is not their style. They believe he is going to turn it around and be effective.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 11:23 AM)
We'll see. If he performs as you suggest AND the Sox at least seriously contend for the playoffs, the trade will have worked.

 

But I think the only way this team contends is to do what this board has been begging them to do - trade any prospect necessary (with the requisite holdback of Anderson) for Brewers, Reds and Rockies. And it will be all or nothing for 16 and 17. And then nothing for a long time.

 

Me, I wish they had continued what they started in 2013 for 2 more years: a sensible build-up of organizational depth. that would have allowed for contention for years to come, starting in 17.

 

The only suggestion for performance I am making is that he will more consistently work deep into games than the guy he is replacing. I am not sure what to expect from Shields. His numbers are odd. While his fastball has fallen in velocity, his cutter has picked up speed. Instead of being about 6mph different like it was a couple of years ago, it is now more like 4.5mph. Part of being effective is having distinct differences between those pitches which doesn't allow a hitter to sit in between and adjust. It is what killed Danks along with a consistent release point.

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QUOTE (Tex @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:27 PM)
It would have been nice to have someone available to fill the offensive hole, but that wasn't to be. No use sitting around waiting and not doing anything else to improve the team. This was an modest improvement which becomes huge *if* other things fall in place.

 

There is still 7 weeks to do so, and Rick made it clear that they are still actively shopping for improvements. I have no doubt they would love to find another power hitting OF.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:28 PM)
There is still 7 weeks to do so, and Rick made it clear that they are still actively shopping for improvements. I have no doubt they would love to find another power hitting OF.

 

I agree.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 01:27 PM)
The only suggestion for performance I am making is that he will more consistently work deep into games than the guy he is replacing. I am not sure what to expect from Shields. His numbers are odd. While his fastball has fallen in velocity, his cutter has picked up speed. Instead of being about 6mph different like it was a couple of years ago, it is now more like 4.5mph. Part of being effective is having distinct differences between those pitches which doesn't allow a hitter to sit in between and adjust. It is what killed Danks along with a consistent release point.

I don't think the bolded agrees with the stats the way I read them. For his career his FC (Fastball Cut) on Fangraphs has averaged 87.0 mph, this year it is at 86.5. It is true that his 2016 cutter velocity is up slightly from the 85.9 last year, but it's basically identical to the 86.4 that he was throwing in 2014. 2013 shows 87.1, 2012-2011 it is up at 89-90 and I'm wondering if Pitch F/X wasn't classifying all those correctly. Out of the last 4 seasons, this year's cutter velocity is right in the middle.

 

Some additional edits: The pitch at 89-90 in 2011-2012 he was also throwing 20% as much as the FC he's been throwing since 2013 started, so I think there's probably some real difference in the pitch he's throwing those years. Suddenly he started throwing it a lot more in 2013-2016, wouldn't be stunned if the pre-2013 pitches were mostly fastballs that had a bit of extra movement on them. They probably don't even contribute that much to the average cutter velocity since he threw more FC pitches in 2014 alone than he did in 2012 and before.

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Bottom line, I really don't think this deal was a very good use of resources. While I think our 4th / 5th starters, more specifically the 4th, needed to be upgraded (especially considering Rodon, like any extremely young pitcher, will have his up's and down's (just look at my preseason posts), I don't know that Shields is really a guy who provides such an upgrade (yes, name value is > than Gonzalez / Latos and we all know I am not a Latos fan) but this guy isn't a huge difference maker (at least hard to bet on him being that given advanced stats and declining velocity) and while Pads ate a ton of money on that contract, we used financial resources (knowing Reinsdorf has a budget) not just for this year, but the next two years, plus a guy like Tatis who has real potential (and obviously more likely he will be a bust, but still pretty short sited) and a guy like Johnson, who is a valuable piece towards any rebuilding team (as he's a guy who can work on his craft at the big league level and ultimately prove himself to be a reliable, cost controlled #4 / #5 (Johnson won't be an ace, we know that, but I'd bet on him having a good back of the rotation career on the cheap which is a real value).

 

If we are going to use the resources, use them on difference makers. A lot of this goes back to the fact that we kind of half-assed it this off-season and never really put together the team needed to contend and it puts you in a tough "middle" ground where you aren't developing for the future as effective as you could and you aren't really contending. All this said, I am sure the Sox are going to make a full frontal effort to add another bat and another reliever. Seems they are hell bent on contending and I don't know how they can without doing those things. I also can't really figure out how they can give Ventura much more rope. Everyone knew it was a make or break year for him and now with that start and them using longer term resources on Shields, they are looking at this from the perspective of, they need to do this now, and well, if that is the case, than, you got to try everything possible and I'd have to think Ventura is out of if they can't turn it around soon.

 

Good news is, of the guys they acquired, all still have quality trade value (Shields would probably have more suitors now than he did before....and we could clearly always move Frazier or Lawrie, etc, if need be).

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QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:24 PM)
I wonder if one of the reason they got Shields is possible trade bait before the deadline.

Hahn and Williams aren't that creative.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:28 PM)
There is still 7 weeks to do so, and Rick made it clear that they are still actively shopping for improvements. I have no doubt they would love to find another power hitting OF.

Probably true. Another patch. Maybe this time it will work.

 

 

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:42 PM)
Bottom line, I really don't think this deal was a very good use of resources. ..................and we could clearly always move Frazier or Lawrie, etc, if need be).

 

I am in total agreement with everything you wrote.

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QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:24 PM)
I wonder if one of the reason they got Shields is possible trade bait before the deadline.

 

I don't think so but if they did decide to sell he would at least be a cheaper innings eater option than before for a team.

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The problem with acquiring a guy like Shields is if he does what he was acquired to do, be a 4th starter, it will be a disappointment to the majority of fans who expect him to be an ace.

 

Personally, I stated before, I think Gonzalez/Latos were a little below Shields but not much. I would have waited, but that said, if Gonzalez helps out in the bullpen, and Shields does give you the extra inning over the guy he replaces, and puts up #4 starter numbers, the trade does make sense as long as, and Hahn verified this with Levine, they still have the resources for some offense, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.

 

Shields now vs. he 2012 velocity, if it were the same, the Padres wouldn't be paying him more than the White Sox the next 2 1/2 years. He is not an ace, but the White Sox don't expect one. It could be a different tune with the majority of the fanbase.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:42 PM)
Bottom line, I really don't think this deal was a very good use of resources. While I think our 4th / 5th starters, more specifically the 4th, needed to be upgraded (especially considering Rodon, like any extremely young pitcher, will have his up's and down's (just look at my preseason posts), I don't know that Shields is really a guy who provides such an upgrade (yes, name value is > than Gonzalez / Latos and we all know I am not a Latos fan) but this guy isn't a huge difference maker (at least hard to bet on him being that given advanced stats and declining velocity) and while Pads ate a ton of money on that contract, we used financial resources (knowing Reinsdorf has a budget) not just for this year, but the next two years, plus a guy like Tatis who has real potential (and obviously more likely he will be a bust, but still pretty short sited) and a guy like Johnson, who is a valuable piece towards any rebuilding team (as he's a guy who can work on his craft at the big league level and ultimately prove himself to be a reliable, cost controlled #4 / #5 (Johnson won't be an ace, we know that, but I'd bet on him having a good back of the rotation career on the cheap which is a real value).

 

If we are going to use the resources, use them on difference makers. A lot of this goes back to the fact that we kind of half-assed it this off-season and never really put together the team needed to contend and it puts you in a tough "middle" ground where you aren't developing for the future as effective as you could and you aren't really contending. All this said, I am sure the Sox are going to make a full frontal effort to add another bat and another reliever. Seems they are hell bent on contending and I don't know how they can without doing those things. I also can't really figure out how they can give Ventura much more rope. Everyone knew it was a make or break year for him and now with that start and them using longer term resources on Shields, they are looking at this from the perspective of, they need to do this now, and well, if that is the case, than, you got to try everything possible and I'd have to think Ventura is out of if they can't turn it around soon.

 

Good news is, of the guys they acquired, all still have quality trade value (Shields would probably have more suitors now than he did before....and we could clearly always move Frazier or Lawrie, etc, if need be).

 

They are paying him $5 this year, and $10m the next two (yes I am assuming he doesn't opt out). Even if you say the Sox have only the LaRoche money to spend, that still leaves us $8 million to spend. If you take that an extrapolate that 8 million out knowing that the season is 1/3 over, that means we could still afford someone with a $12 million contract for this season. (12 million divided by 2/3 of season remaining = $8m left on deal). If you push that out to the 81 game mark, we could take on someone with a $16 million contract. Again, that is assuming that we have no more resources other than the

LaRoche money, and that the next deal we make we get no financial relief from the trading team.

 

Pulling a past name out of my ass, Carlos Gonzalez has a $17 million deal for this season. Jay Bruce has a $12.5 million price tag for 2016.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:52 PM)
The problem with acquiring a guy like Shields is if he does what he was acquired to do, be a 4th starter, it will be a disappointment to the majority of fans who expect him to be an ace.

 

Personally, I stated before, I think Gonzalez/Latos were a little below Shields but not much. I would have waited, but that said, if Gonzalez helps out in the bullpen, and Shields does give you the extra inning over the guy he replaces, and puts up #4 starter numbers, the trade does make sense as long as, and Hahn verified this with Levine, they still have the resources for some offense, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.

 

Shields now vs. he 2012 velocity, if it were the same, the Padres wouldn't be paying him more than the White Sox the next 2 1/2 years. He is not an ace, but the White Sox don't expect one. It could be a different tune with the majority of the fanbase.

 

You probably wouldn't have gotten Shields then. After the Padres owner melted down on him publicly last week, a deal was going to happen ASAP.

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QUOTE (Tex @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:33 PM)
I agree.

 

The problem is - this team is headed in the wrong direction and have a very tough schedule. It's fun to talk about what power hitter they are adding, but does this conversation change by the end of the month as to whom they are going to have to move?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 12:54 PM)
You probably wouldn't have gotten Shields then. After the Padres owner melted down on him publicly last week, a deal was going to happen ASAP.

That was definitely an issue. The rumored trade did come before the shaming, so that was probably done knowing he was gone. The only question would have been was there enough offered from other teams for him to move, or did the Padres owner know he was going to be a White Sox so he ripped him?

 

I do agree, if they weren't trading him, that doesn't get said.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 6, 2016 -> 01:00 PM)
That was definitely an issue. The rumored trade did come before the shaming, so that was probably done knowing he was gone. The only question would have been was there enough offered from other teams for him to move, or did the Padres owner know he was going to be a White Sox so he ripped him?

 

I do agree, if they weren't trading him, that doesn't get said.

 

I think if the White Sox hesitate, the Padres take the 2nd best offer.

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