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SoxChinMusic

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  1. QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 01:16 PM) They still have Gonzalez at 1B through 2018. The window for the current incarnation of the Dodgers could be very small. Kershaw can opt out after next season and three other guys in their rotation are free agents, with Urias the only in house replacement near ready to help out. Gonzalez will be gone, Forsythe will be gone, and Grandal will be a FA. They also have $57M committed to Jansen, Hill, and Turner. I know money has not been an issue for them, but with rumblings last season about the amount of Dodger debt, odds are their free spending ways are going to slow down. Trading for Q will at least bring some stability to their rotation long term, in addition it gives them one less hole to fill after the 2018 season and allows them to compete this year with the makeshift rotation they have in place. Iowa SF, you nailed it. The issue we learned a few months ago w/ LA was their debt issue. Also agree, Q would be a great fit and get a cost controlled SP, but they would need to bite the bullet and include (at least) either Urias or Bellinger. From what I've read because of their debt, they are attempting to do what the Yanks are attempting to do, focus more on their prospects. http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...1126-story.html I know we hear it constantly in negotiations, "We will not trade Prospect A". Some times the team does trade Prospect A but from what I've read, the Dodgers are truly vested in not trading their top prospects. This means 1] Urias, if Kershaw leaves, they need a controllable LHP and 2] Bellinger, if Gonzo leaves, he'd play 1st. I'd think Bellinger would have a better chance of being traded than Urias. So if LA isn't going to include either (don't think they will), their headliner for Q would be Verdugo. Him plus any combo of their other prospects I don't think would be enough for the Dodgers to qualify. I'm hoping for the Astros rotation to falter early.
  2. QUOTE (yesterday333 @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 01:21 PM) Which is why we are targeting Severino from the nats. I do think we need a defense first catcher with some hitting potential, but with how few bats we have in our system I feel like the Astros have a lot of other player to target. Sure, IF we can get Severino in some type of package from Rizzo for DR, great. But IF one of the multiple closer options Washington will attempt first works, the last thing Rizzo wants to do is trade with the Sox, let alone the risk to his rep, AGAIN. Time will tell about the Eaton trade but we all know Rizzo has been ripped for it, he'll definitely err on the side of caution with the Sox. Only if a gun to his head and he feels super confident, will he trade with the Sox.
  3. QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 01:20 PM) Ehh. I think those doubts are overplayed a bit. I think he still has quite a bit of development left to do on the defensive side, but I think the moving off catcher thing had more to do with the fact that his bat is pretty close to ML ready, and everyone figured the Sox would bring him up before he was ready defensively. Now, they have time. They don't have to rush him. The Sox will give him every chance to catch, and they have a history with making poor defensive catchers good ones (see Flowers). I'd hope you're right that Collins can become a average D catcher, the odds may be against him (Jesus Montero,etc). But we've all seen it time and time again where a player whether in the minors or majors is playing a commodity type position, C, SS, CF among other positions, and is then moved from the commodity position to a position which more players can play than not. The primary reason Mauer received 25 mil/yr was that he was playing a commodity position. Of course the Twins had to sign him being a St Paul boy but if he was playing 1st back then he may have only received, 20 million, LOL. Point is, I'd prefer to gather the acorns as catchers as they are rare. Hopefully Collins AND Stubbs, if we were to get him, would only enhance our trade options or only then possibly move Collins off C. Stubbs would not be a deal breaker for me but I'm viewing him as a solid 4th player within a package. If we had to include Jennings or DR in the package to get Tucker, Fisher, Whitley (or Reed) and then Stubbs, I'm in. I simply do not to learn we're 100% banking on Collins to C and because his bat can play at the MLB level, we will later move him off C.. We're then back at square 1 and waiting another 5 years to develop a C.
  4. QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 09:09 AM) It seems to have become accepted fact that the Pirates shouldn't trade for Quintana because they need to hold on to their prospects as a small market team. I don't think this is such a sure thing. Of course, they shouldn't go for broke and empty the farm for one player — that makes sense. But the idea that they cannot trade Meadows doesn't stand up. There is literally no other way for a team like the Pirates to acquire a premium SP like Quintana. If they think Glasnow and/or Keller will turn into that type of elite starter and then will be willing to sign under-market contract extensions, that is one (longer and riskier) path. Otherwise, since signing a pitcher of that caliber in free agency is not an option, there is simply no other way. And it could very easily be argued that it would be significantly more beneficial to their organization to allocate resources to four years of an elite and vastly underpaid starting pitcher than six years to a (possibly very good but unproven) OF. To replace Meadows, they could sign any Angel Pagan-type to be the team's third OF. Remember, OF is not a weakness on this team. They have two excellent and cheap starters out there already, and that's not even taking former-MVP McCutchen and his potential value (either on the field or in a trade) into account. It could be argued that it is actually [less risky for the Pirates to trade Meadows for Quintana than to hope Meadows and Glasnow/Keller pan out (and sign early extensions that themselves could end up under water). Great points, a proven, cost controlled TOR, LH pitcher is far more of a commodity than an unproven top level CF (even though a top line, LHB,CF prospect is a commodity) Pitt could fill in an OF position, a lower cost option similar to a Pagan type as they have two other studs in their OF.I like Meadows and IF he were the headliner, I would consider the Pirates. But I agree, Pitt should reconsider, if they haven't already. As Steveno89 mentioned, Pitt's M.O. is to not have the stones to deal the cost controlled prospects and I believe they will continue this trend. Any possible deal w/ Pitt would almost have to include Meadows, Keller and Newman for me. The balance of their prospects may be more hit and miss. I want NO part of Glasnow as his value will only drop as he cannot repeat his delivery and master his command therefore MAY be a late inning pen man. Values in trades come from SP prospects. As in my previous posts, Hou has a greater number of the specific position players we need and both teams have the ability to adjust various packages in order to able to complete a deal. More importantly, the Astros prospects are better risks also. Since Houston has not been competitive recently, they have had the ability to draft near the top of the draft boards for the best CONSENSUS prospects yearly. Maybe this would also prove more valuable as their prospects may have a greater probability of succeeding. It appears as if most teams will wait on a possible Q deal, but I think the best possibility of a trade will happen with Houston. Luhnow is doing his job by waiting and hoping his staff works out. I say the odds are against it and he will definitely come back. The question if/when will he personally decide to engage in serious talks again w/ Hahn ? He can't wait too long or their season will be threatened. He can't wait too long or other teams will again get involved and the price will rise. This is why I liked KW's aggressiveness to win ASAP but didn't agree w/ his overall approach. Unfortunately we are paying KW's price now. If I'm Luhnow, my hand is on the trigger, prepared to close Hahn with whatever it takes. This is exactly what Dombrowski did to get Sale. He swooped in at the last minute as the info on the street was that the Bosox were not engaged w/ RH prior to the trade. If the Stros are 500 in mid May, 6 weeks prior to the deadline, Luhnow should make the deal. This way he'll beat other teams to the punch and also not get into a bidding war.
  5. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 28, 2017 -> 07:43 PM) With the pitchers we already have in our system, I am OK building a deal without Martes, but then there has to be some quantity to make up for it. Absolutely agree. In order to get the proper balance of pitcher(s) and position player(s) w/o sacrificing the quality of prospects, Whitley has the ability to be a TOR starter also. If we were to back off asking for Martes, this may allow us to also get Stubbs. In order to get Stubbs, if we had to work in Jennings or DR, we can do it. Worst case, IF the Astros balk, we could accept Reed and not Whitley with additional tinkering. Reed is simply not quite on the fast track as Tucker may be but I feel he'll work out and is a LHB.. Tucker + Fisher + Whitley + or (Stubbs/Reed)..
  6. QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 28, 2017 -> 07:37 PM) This is a very, very good post. Thanks both Old Sox +-Kalapse..I've always preferred OBP and hated K's but unfortunately the way the game is today, K's are becoming more acceptable. This being the case, even though Fisher has struck out some in the past, his BB to K rate is actually decent (1:2) as he can work a count. His OBP is also pretty good at 37% compared to the lackluster 33% these days. Lastly he has stolen 28, 31 and 17 bases his 1st three years in pro ball. Not that spring stats matter but he's .289 w/ .417 OBP and 11 stolen bases w/ 0 thrown out. This is playing the position we need, a LHB in the OF. Therefore Tucker + Fisher would be acceptable headliners for me. Additionally include Whitley (or worst case, get Reed instead of Whitley) and if necessary to get Stubbs, include Jennings or if they prefer DR and eat cash if we have to. Hopefully then Nightengale would alert Rizzo who may up the ante for DR ?
  7. QUOTE (steveno89 @ Mar 28, 2017 -> 11:02 AM) "If they're going to include both Martes and Tucker, there needs to be something else coming back in addition to Quintana (a ptbnl rookie league prospect, Robertson with salary relief, Jennings, or Jones). Otherwise, I think Chicago will have a hard time beating a package that includes 1 of Martes/Tucker plus 3 fringe top 100 types (Fisher, Perez, Whitley, Paulino, Cameron, Moran, Reed, etc.)." From an Astros fan^^^ I think this is somewhat indicative for the gap the exists between the Sox asking price and what is being offered. Quintana is not being traded for Martes or Tucker plus some second tier prospects. Martes AND Tucker would be a minimum starting point to headline a package, plus substantially more would have to be included. Sox would likely accept a Martes + Tucker + Musgrove/Reed package Anything less, why bother from the Sox point of view? My 2 cents on the best possible Q trade. I’m not unveiling new info but had to post as the basis of my post is that I haven’t heard people on this board suggest my ask (below) by the Sox. I’ve been saving this rant all winter. The first to offer a package to Hahn’s rigid requirements will get Q. I’m sure Dombrowski told RH, “Give me the last shot at Sale before you make a deal” as DD knew all along he was willing to give the Sox what they would take for Sale. This being the case, once the Sox get close to a deal I’d believe Nightengale would put out the “2 minute warning” to all suitors. I’m sure RH doesn’t unnecessarily prefer to wait either in the event of a Q injury/possible performance decline. This is why teams fairly confident they will be contenders shouldn’t drag their feet as Q’s price will only increase as the trade deadline approaches and more importantly, the competition for Q will increase also. The Astros should be the team to blink first, it truly appears to be a win-win for both. The Stros infield positions are set for years (by not trading Bregman). In the outfield, Springer and Reddick are there through 21. One OF spot is possible to open at some point w/ Aoki now there but could be filled internally sometime in the future with Tucker or Fisher and they also have Beltran who if can play a few games in the OF. With their rotation the weakest area they have and their position players in the minors blocked, they are not making the best possible decision to win the WS as their window is now. As we all know, our primary need is position players. Not to discount future TOR arms but if all else is equal, we would prefer position players. IF Houston is not going to give up Bregman, I’d like to definitely receive Tucker and Fisher. Ideally, I’d like #3 Whitley instead of #1 Martes, especially if our good will/faith by not asking for Martes would allow us to receive also Stubbs. Whitley is farther away than Martes therefore fits better as within our next possible set of MLB pitchers after Lopez,Gio,Fullmer etc. . I also like Reed. We know our need is at catcher. But as the sharps also know, catcher is possibly the greatest commodity in baseball these days. There aren’t many solid minor league, let alone major league catchers playing, let alone in the minors. If Collins works out at catcher, great, but history is not on our side. IF we had Collins and Stubbs, we’d have better chips available. This is why I’d love Tucker, Fisher, Stubbs and either Whitley OR Reed. Possibly the X factor could be Jennings. As an ace in the hole, we can include Jennings as they had a need for a LHP. He has no value to us but possibly Houston. IF Houston would prefer Robertson (they may not want a RHP) we would have to eat some of DR’s contract to get a quality prospect anyway so perhaps eat some DR money to get the package I suggested (Tucker + Fisher) with either Whitley and Reed/ or Whitley or Reed…Some combo of the initial two PLUS…. MINIMUM Sox take; Tucker, Fisher, + ____….Thoughts or am I way off ?
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