Jump to content

Playoff odds


southsider2k5
 Share

Recommended Posts

What is really interesting is how divergent these two projections are. Fangraphs has the White Sox at 35.1%. BP has the White Sox at 52.7%.

 

Both systems really like the Indians though. Despite being 6-7 and in 4th place, BP has them at 70.1%, and FG has them at 60.5%.

 

The computers hate the Royals. Despite being 10-5, FG has them with a 29.3% chance at the playoffs, and BP has 20.8%.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?l...f&year=2016

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 82
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (daggins @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 04:58 PM)
The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games.

The problem is the Royals aren't the only team that doesn't strike out. The Braves were 2nd to the Royals last year in fewest number of strikeouts but had well below average cluster luck and scored the least amount of runs in baseball.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test.

 

Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction:

 

Royals 92 Wins

Tigers 86 Wins

Sox 86 Wins

Indians 83 Wins

Twins 72 Wins

 

Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind.

Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 10:53 AM)
I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test.

 

Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction:

 

Royals 92 Wins

Tigers 86 Wins

Sox 86 Wins

Indians 83 Wins

Twins 72 Wins

 

Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind.

Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible.

Yeah, they're just for fun, especially because they can't predict which teams will be buyers and sellers in July. There's just no way to know.

 

I guessed 83 wins before the season. If I'm completely unconvinced by anything that has happened so far and thought they were still the same 83-win team - just with a 13-6 start - that'd put my new guess at 86. And I'm unconvinced by most of what's taken place.

 

The major exceptions are Sale and Quintana. I feel like Sale is going to be the best pitcher in the AL by far this year, and Quintana will have his best season as well. Part of this is that they finally have a competent defense behind them - the third major exception.

 

The hunch I have about that stuff bumps my guess up to 88 wins for the Sox.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BP's playoff odds are heavily biased towards good defensive teams. Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are all off to mediocre starts but BP projects them to be 3 of the 4 best teams in the AL the rest of the season mostly due to FRAA numbers > 30. I just don't think defense alone can pull you out of mediocrity.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Apr 27, 2016 -> 12:12 AM)
63% on FiveThirtyEight, best in the AL. Projections still love the Indians and their young rotation/Lindor, though.

 

Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 26, 2016 -> 11:16 PM)
Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start!

 

Just as a note, 86 wins was the total for the second wild card last year in the AL.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...