joejoedairy Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 So Chris Sale in his last 5 outings has pitched 41 innings and given up 9 runs. He has a 1-2 record to show for it. I'd like to show some appreciation for the guy so I thought I'd look at the AL Cy Young race to see if he has a shot at it. Would be a cool little accomplishment in an otherwise disappointing season. So here's the breakdown of a very close race: Chris Sale 15-8 3.03 ERA 1.02 WHIP 5.3 WAR 201.2 IP 205 Ks 28 Starts He has been great. Hopefully his suspension doesn't cost him the award. Corey Kluber 16-9 3.05 ERA 1.04 WHIP 6.2 WAR 197.2 IP 208 Ks 29 Starts His WAR is considerably higher than Sale's, probably due to a higher K/9. Hard to see too much difference between he and Sale. Rick Porcello 20-3 3.21 ERA 1.02 WHIP 4.5 WAR 193.2 IP 161 Ks 29 Starts Significant advantage in Wins which I'm sure some voters still value highly. Otherwise very good numbers but doesn't stand out. Michael Fulmer 10-6 2.76 ERA 1.05 WHIP 5.0 WAR 143.2 IP 117 Ks 23 Starts Not enough starts to really contend. Will have to be content with the ERA title. Masahiro Tanaka 13-4 3.04 ERA 1.07 WHIP 5.1 WAR 186.2 IP 160 Ks 29 Starts He's on the Yankees so might get a few extra votes for that. I dunno his numbers are great too. Cole Hamels 14-5 3.24 ERA 1.31 WHIP 5.1 WAR 180.2 IP 181 Ks 29 Starts WHIP and ERA too high for my taste. Enjoy the playoffs Justin Verlander 14-8 3.33 ERA 1.03 WHIP 4.9 WAR 200 IP 216 Ks 30 Starts Old reliable having another great year but I think it'll probably be someone else's year Jose Quintana 11-10 3.13 ERA 1.13 WHIP 4.6 WAR 184 IP 165 Ks 28 Starts He's not going to win, as we all well know. But he is great and incredibly consistent. JA Happ 18-4 3.33 ERA 1.17 WHIP 3.8 WAR 170.1 IP 149 Ks 28 Starts Really doesn't belong here but he has a lot of wins. Good job. I think Sale and Kluber are equally the most deserving but I bet Porcello wins the award. Obviously there are 3 weeks left so there is a little time left for these guys to improve their chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Man, if Q didn't have that bad start a few days ago he might have been the frontrunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Tanaka/Kluber leads in fWAR. Sale leads in RA9-WAR. Porcello really doesn't deserve to be even top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 04:19 PM) Man, if Q didn't have that bad start a few days ago he might have been the frontrunner. Eh, any way you spin it, I don't think you can say Quintana is a better candidate than Sale at this point. You could probably make that argument mid-season, but Q's numbers have been slipping since June. Sale's been hurt by home runs recently, which negatively affects his fWAR. He's really not that far away from either Kluber or Tanaka in fWAR to say he doesn't deserve it. But his gigantic lead in RA9-WAR is pretty telling. FWIW, he's got 6.2 RA-9 WAR while the next closest is Kluber with 5.5. Weirdly enough, bWAR, which uses RA9-WAR but adjusts for defense, has Kluber at 6.1 and Sale at 5.2. Which makes little sense to me considering Cleveland's defense is miles better than ours. Edited September 12, 2016 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 It should be Kluber. But Porcello will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marky Mark Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (SoxAce @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 06:59 PM) It should be Kluber. But Porcello will win. Agreed on both counts. Unfortunately the voters are still too wrapped up in the thought that you must have the most wins and play for the most successful team to the best pitcher in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 09:18 PM) Agreed on both counts. Unfortunately the voters are still too wrapped up in the thought that you must have the most wins and play for the most successful team to the best pitcher in baseball. I think Porcello wins it as well. I heard an announcer say this weekend that 20 wins is a big deal because you don't get a lot of 20 game winners like you used to. I also don't think Porcello is a top #1 starter going into the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the post season when he is matched against other aces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 09:03 PM) I think Porcello wins it as well. I heard an announcer say this weekend that 20 wins is a big deal because you don't get a lot of 20 game winners like you used to. I also don't think Porcello is a top #1 starter going into the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the post season when he is matched against other aces. he will get shelled porcello is garbage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reiks12 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 porcello will win because he plays for Boston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 fWAR... Kluber/Tanaka - 5.0 WAR in 29 starts (0.172 WAR per start) Sale - 4.8 WAR in 28 starts (0.171 WAR per start) So you are talking about near virtual tie in WAR, besides, Margin of Error for fWAR is 0.5. Now, Baseball Prospectus uses their own form of WAR which accounts for catcher framing. This is important because, as you probably know, the Sox are HORRENDOUS at pitch-framining. So this adds/removes the impact a catcher has on a starter. With that in mind, Sale leads ALL baseball in pitcher WARp. Sale - 6.5 Kluber - 6.2 Price - 6.1 Verlander - 5.8 Archer - 5.3 Sale has lost 6.3 runs to his ERA because of that pitch framing. Let's adjust those the top 5 pitchers in ERA to reflect their team's pitch framing.... Fulmer - 2.76 ERA to 2.61 Sale - 3.03 ERA to 2.75 Tanaka - 3.04 ERA to 3.12 Kluber - 3.05 ERA to 3.02 Quintana - 3.13 ERA to 2.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 All that being said, I'm sure Porcello will win. Boston, 20+ wins, nice ERA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTruth05 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 12:27 AM) All that being said, I'm sure Porcello will win. Boston, 20+ wins, nice ERA. I'm not directing this to anyone in specific but if Porcello wins then why should we care is Sale or Q ever win 1? It's basically the same as the gold glove and doesn't really reflect anything in today's baseball. I'll start caring about these awards when we start seeing advanced stats truly have significance of picking the winner of these things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 07:51 AM) I'm not directing this to anyone in specific but if Porcello wins then why should we care is Sale or Q ever win 1? It's basically the same as the gold glove and doesn't really reflect anything in today's baseball. I'll start caring about these awards when we start seeing advanced stats truly have significance of picking the winner of these things. One important factor everyone is leaving out. Pitching in big games. Unfortunately Q and Sale do not pitch in big games in August and September. Porcello and to some extent Kluber are. Porcello just beat Toronto on the road and goes against Orioles this week at home. So that is a factor that needs to be added to the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 07:37 AM) One important factor everyone is leaving out. Pitching in big games. Unfortunately Q and Sale do not pitch in big games in August and September. Porcello and to some extent Kluber are. Porcello just beat Toronto on the road and goes against Orioles this week at home. So that is a factor that needs to be added to the mix. I don't think it does because you are penalizing them for something that isn't their fault. You might as well use pitching wins. They're both subjective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 There's just no way Porcello doesn't win it with that record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Who should win? Player A: 193.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 4.3 fWAR Player B: 197.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 5 fWAR Player C: 201.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.8 fWAR Player D: 186.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 5 fWAR Player E: 184 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 4.6 fWAR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTruth05 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 09:58 AM) Who should win? Player A: 193.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 4.3 fWAR Player B: 197.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 5 fWAR Player C: 201.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.8 fWAR Player D: 186.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 5 fWAR Player E: 184 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 4.6 fWAR Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice. Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 11:15 AM) Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice. Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q. I do like the idea that there should be some weighting for putting up Cy Young numbers in a pennant race versus for a team that isn't in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 11:15 AM) Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice. Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q. There shouldn't be though. It's about most valuable in general. Not most valuable on a good team. Rick Porcello isn't having as good of a season as Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Hell, if Jose Quintana were on Boston he'd likely be the overwhelming Cy Young favorite because he'd be hovering around 20 wins as well. If Porcello wins this award, we really should stop giving it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 11:25 AM) There shouldn't be though. It's about most valuable in general. Not most valuable on a good team. Rick Porcello isn't having as good of a season as Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Hell, if Jose Quintana were on Boston he'd likely be the overwhelming Cy Young favorite because he'd be hovering around 20 wins as well. If Porcello wins this award, we really should stop giving it out. Hell, Q with an offense this year is probably hovering around 25 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Who I want to win: Sale Who will probably win: Porcello Who should win if the season ended today: Kluber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 11:16 AM) I do like the idea that there should be some weighting for putting up Cy Young numbers in a pennant race versus for a team that isn't in it. That's a really dumb idea actually. Why should really good pitchers on bad teams be penalized for their teams performance? Should Josh Donaldson get more MVP consideration than Mike Trout since the Angels are garbage? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (Dunt @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 12:14 PM) That's a really dumb idea actually. Why should really good pitchers on bad teams be penalized for their teams performance? Should Josh Donaldson get more MVP consideration than Mike Trout since the Angels are garbage? No. Not at all. Pitching in important games should be more important than meaningless ones. It is kind of common sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Not at all. Pitching in important games should be more important than meaningless ones. It is kind of common sense to me. You are penalizing guys for something beyond their control though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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