My Player Projections

[BearSox]

STARTING ROTATION:

NAME             GS | IP    |  SO-BB | ERA  |  W-L  |
Jose Contreras - 31 | 200.2 | 167-50 | 3.90 | 16-7  |
Jon Garland    - 33 | 215.0 | 118-44 | 3.98 | 18-8  |
Mark Buehrle   - 33 | 235.2 | 152-40 | 4.07 | 14-10 |
Javier Vazquez - 33 | 220.1 | 200-55 | 3.54 | 17-9  |
John Danks     - 27 | 163.0 | 170-61 | 4.55 | 11-10 |
OVERALL        - xx | xxxxx | xxxxxx | 4.01 | 76-44 |

BULLPEN:

NAME           - IP | SO-BB | SV | SVO | ERA  |  W-L  |
Bobby Jenks    - 70 | 76-20 | 37 | 42  | 3.78 |  2-4  |
Mike MacDougal - 64 | 57-12 | 4  | 5   | 2.14 |  3-1  |
Matt Thornton  - 61 | 57-17 | 3  | 4   | 2.73 |  6-3  |
Nick Masset    - 52 | 50-19 | 0  | 0   | 3.85 |  3-5  |
Andrew Sisco   - 49 | 45-23 | 0  | 0   | 4.30 |  2-6  |
David Aardsma  - 51 | 47-18 | 0  | 0   | 4.21 |  3-4  |
OVERALL        - xx | xxxxx | 44 | 51  | 3.50 | 19-23 |

CATCHERS:

NAME            - G   | AB  | HR | RBI |  AVG | SB-CS |
A.J. Pierzynski - 142 | 517 | 13 | 70  | .289 |  2-4  |
Gustavo Molina  - 20  | 87  | 3  | 10  | .234 |  1-0  |

INFIELDERS:

NAME            - G   | AB  | HR | RBI |  AVG | SB-CS |
Paul Konerko    - 156 | 570 | 40 | 119 | .319 |  1-0  |
Jim Thome       - 136 | 479 | 36 | 101 | .285 |  0-0  |
Tadahito Iguchi - 125 | 480 | 24 | 73  | .279 | 17-5  |
Joe Crede       - 140 | 520 | 27 | 91  | .271 |  1-4  |
Juan Uribe      - 120 | 450 | 14 | 64  | .247 |  8-10 |
Alex Cintron    - 87  | 237 | 6  | 38  | .280 | 13-4  |
Pablo Ozuna     - 94  | 290 | 1  | 21  | .319 | 12-6  |
Rob Mackowiak   - 93  | 240 | 7  | 28  | .276 |  6-2  |

OUTFIELDERS:

NAME            - G   | AB  | HR | RBI |  AVG | SB-CS |
Scott Podsednik - 125 | 500 | 2  | 30  | .289 | 53-16 |
Darin Erstad    - 115 | 412 | 6  | 47  | .281 | 14-4  |
Jermaine Dye    - 152 | 560 | 43 | 117 | .314 |  6-2  |
Brian Anderson  - 113 | 325 | 6  | 35  | .264 |  7-4  |

TEAM STATS

PITCHING:

W-L 95-67 | ERA 3.76

 

OFFENSE:

HR 228 | AVG .282

 

I just spent a bit over an hour working on this, and got lazy, so I will write out my explanations later. ERA numbers seem too low, also.

Edited April 1, 2007 by BearSox

[Kalapse]

To good for the Predictions thread are we?

[Buehrle>Wood]

To good for the Predictions thread are we?

These are pretty good. I'd say so.

[BearSox]

To good for the Predictions thread are we?

well, this will not only be predictions but my thoughts on the players (comming together). So, I guess one can say it is too good for the predictions thread

 

 

Also, these are PROJECTIONS, not PREDICTIONS...

[Gene Honda Civic]

hmmmm...

 

Sox "projected" to attempt 202 steals a year after they were only successful 93 times.

 

Crede projected to attempt 5 steals, Pierzynski 6, and Uribe 18. Did they get lobotomies on the flight north?

 

Gustavo Molina displaying more power than AJ. and projected to hit above his weight.

 

Iguchi projected to slug around .500. 6 HRs over his career high in about 100 fewers AB's.

 

The pitching staff. One of them might make your "projection," but I'd take the over on all of them. I particularly love the Danks K number. Masset's is the next best. Oh and zero blown holds for the season by the back-end of the bullpen. Better increase the win total to the low 120's.

 

My real question is why the positive projection for 24 guys and leave Uribe out of the mix? He's got a career Isolated Power of about .180 and you've got him projected in the .130-.140 range.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

I think we'll be fine this year but even I think those seem a bit too optimistic. I mean Javy, with those numbers? And pretty much every one else on the team is meeting or exceeding expectations.

[BearSox]

hmmmm...

 

Sox "projected" to attempt 202 steals a year after they were only successful 93 times.

 

Crede projected to attempt 5 steals, Pierzynski 6, and Uribe 18. Did they get lobotomies on the flight north?

In 2005 the White Sox attempted 204 stolen bases. Last year only 135. If we are really back to the grind, around 200 stolen bases should be expected, IMO. But, I will admit, some of my numbers are inflated for the stolen bases. Also, the main reason I only added SB was for Scott Podsednik.

 

Gustavo Molina displaying more power than AJ. and projected to hit above his weight.

Gustavo Molina would just barely be hitting over his weight, and has shown a little pop in his bat, when he does make solid contact. I also think A.J. is going to hit less home runs and drive in more runs this year.

 

Iguchi projected to slug around .500. 6 HRs over his career high in about 100 fewers AB's.

With Iguchi moving down in the order for likely the majority of his at bats, I think his power numbers are going to way up. He was once a top slugger in Japan averaging something like 30 homers in only 400-500 at bats. Also, he would have about 50-70 less at bats, fyi.

 

The pitching staff. One of them might make your "projection," but I'd take the over on all of them. I particularly love the Danks K number.

From what I have seen from Contreras this spring, he might even put up better numbers then I predicted. He seemed to be in very good shape to me, and had good stuff on his pitches.

 

Garland is Garland. Generally he doesnt have that good of spring trainings. I think the ERA might be a little low, but if Garland does work hitters inside and pitches like he has some balls for the whole year (not just one half), I think he can have a real big year.

 

Buehrle seems to be in fantastic shape, and after watching the game Friday night, he reminded be of the Buehrle we all know and love. He was hitting most of his spots, and he was throwing at about 88-89 mph generally, which is usually what he tops out at. Watching that outing of his gave me a ton of confidence, and I think we could actually see him have one of his best years.

 

Vazquez is due for a great year. He will finally be with the same team two years in a row, and seems to really like Chicago. The whole organization thinks he will have a fantastic year, as do I. He has by far the best stuff on this staff, and on saturday he showed great movement on his pitches and I think he pitched great.

 

Danks, I am going off of what I have seen of him, and from minor league numbers. In 426.1 innings pitched in the minor league level, he has K'd 439 batters which is a bit better than 1 K per inning. This spring he only K'd 16 in 21.1 innings, but he did get off to a slow start. I actually think Danks could contend for ROY, but it is likely his stats will start to decline in the second half of the season.

 

Masset's is the next best. Oh and zero blown holds for the season by the back-end of the bullpen. Better increase the win total to the low 120's.

Masset was difficult to come up with a K number because he has never been a fulltime reliever in the minors, but in 2006, he spent most of his time as a reliever in AAA, and had nearly a K per inning. Also, where do you see anything about holds? I predicted saves, but not holds. There will probably be a couple guys like Masset or Aardsma get a save oppurtunity, but I don't think I really needed to add them. Plus, relievers are the toughest to project, IMO.

 

 

My real question is why the positive projection for 24 guys and leave Uribe out of the mix? He's got a career Isolated Power of about .180 and you've got him projected in the .130-.140 range.

Um, for most of the projections, they are around the players career averages.

 

Also, I should have mentioned this earlier, but I think Iguchi and Uribe will get less at bats so Ozuna and Cintron and Mackowiak could get some more AB's. I also think the White Sox will focus on Uribe being more of a second leadoff type also and have him try and get on base more often, plus with less AB's, less homers.

[max power]

I have very low hopes for sisco. I've seen nothing to convince me otherwise.

[WilliamTell]

I'd love to see those projections with 95 wins, a 3.62 ERA and a .282 Avg. I also like how you gave Pablo another homer, good job.

[ShoeLessRob]

With Iguchi moving down in the order for likely the majority of his at bats, I think his power numbers are going to way up. He was once a top slugger in Japan averaging something like 30 homers in only 400-500 at bats. Also, he would have about 50-70 less at bats, fyi.

 

Gooch only hit 30 homers once in his time in Japan, that was with 552 at bats.

[BearSox]

Gooch only hit 30 homers once in his time in Japan, that was with 552 at bats.

I said he averaged something like 30 homers a year in Japan. I didn't say he consistantly hit 30 homers year in and year out. I think 6 more homers, but in less AB's, is very do-able for Iguchi, if he is batting lower and swinging for himself more often. Iguchi is a powerful guy.

[Kalapse]

He averaged about 23 HR and 496 AB per season in Japan.

[Reddy]

I said he averaged something like 30 homers a year in Japan. I didn't say he consistantly hit 30 homers year in and year out. I think 6 more homers, but in less AB's, is very do-able for Iguchi, if he is batting lower and swinging for himself more often. Iguchi is a powerful guy.

 

saying that someone AVERAGED anything means thats what they do consistantly... meaning of the word average afterall... but your point is taken that his power numbers very likely will be higher this year... just probably not near 30.

[CWSGuy406]

I said he averaged something like 30 homers a year in Japan. I didn't say he consistantly hit 30 homers year in and year out. I think 6 more homers, but in less AB's, is very do-able for Iguchi, if he is batting lower and swinging for himself more often. Iguchi is a powerful guy.

 

That makes no sense. How can he average 30 HR per year if he only hit above that number once? Must've hit about 60 in that one season... Impressive.

[BearSox]

That makes no sense. How can he average 30 HR per year if he only hit above that number once? Must've hit about 60 in that one season... Impressive.

I said he averaged around something like 30 homers a year. I didn't know the exact number. I don't know his stats from Japan by heart...

 

Okay, I just checked his stats, and in the seasons where he was healthy, it looks like he hit around 20-30 homers. And from all the articles I read about him when we first signed him, they all talked about his power.

 

I think 6 more homers out of Iguchi, even if he does have less AB's, is very reasonable if he is hitting lower in the order and swinging for himself.

[sircaffey]

I'll take the under on every single one of these "projected" lines except Uribe. These are more like predictions. No system on earth "projects" Vazquez for that.

[Elcaballo45]

I wonder what pitcher/catcher combo will be humiliated this year when Pauly succesfully steals on his 1 attempt. :-)

Edited April 1, 2007 by Elcaballo45

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Thanx for sticking your neck out. Have fun re-attaching your head ! Good job !