flavum Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Once again, the second wildcard can give teams legitimate hope and a false sense of hope. It's possible you haven't looked at this yet this or even know who's leading the 2nd Wildcard. The Blue Jays lead, and are on pace for 87 wins. The Mariners, Tigers, and Royals are ahead of the White Sox. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/view/wi...rd/group/league This scenario may actually be saving Ventura's job right now. On the other hand, the Sox were once in a position where 64-64 after 23-11 would have won 87 games. That's a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Realistically, you have the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Indians, Rangers and Mariners that are clearly better than the White Sox, as of right now. Then you have the Yankees, Royals, Tigers, Astros and Angels that all have at least some pretense of being in it. Other than TB, the A's and the Twins, you're looking at least 8-9 teams who are going to have more trade resources (financial or farm system or both) to make moves at the deadline. It's not far removed from the situation last year at the end of July, when they decided to hold onto Shark but not make any major additions, either. That strategy won't work this year...either. It's also terribly difficult to imagine them even finishing 2nd in the AL Central when they can't even beat any of those three teams in head-to-head match-ups...at least up until this point about 40% of the way into the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reiks12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Cant wait for the false hope run It ain't over boys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-m...?ex_cid=rrpromo White Sox have a projected record of 81-81 and a 19% chance (still) to make the playoffs. Tigers 83-79 Royals 85-77 Indians 92-70 Blue Jays, Orioles and Royals the 3 favorites for the 2 wild card spots. Then the Mariners and Astros. White Sox ahead of Yankees, Rays, Angels, A's and Twins. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx Fangraphs has the White Sox at 80-82 and in the same exact position, ahead of the Yankees but trailing five teams for the WC. TOR 54.6% BALT 47.3% HOU 40.2% SEA 27.6% DET 26.0% KC 22.4% CHW 12.8% NYY 11.2% So essentially eight teams for two spots. Odds of getting the 2nd wild card are about the same as they were last year, despite the better record. Edited June 22, 2016 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Although they'll never do it with they need to do is cut down the regular season , and add some legitimate playoffs series instead of the bogus one game wild card games. 5 game playoffs are pretty ridiculous as well. Actually they could do it. Expand the roster the 28 and schedule some twinbills. Sox could go on one of those "false hope" runs. They don't play the Tigers Royals or Indians until the end of next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) They're actually 15-9 in their last 24 in Fenway, and have won something like 5 out of the last 6. Haven't played them very well at home, though. Of course, the Red Sox have been crap for 2 of the last 3 seasons (2013 the exception) coming into 2016. Just call us the "False Positive" Sox and get a pregnancy test kit maker as a title sponsor, lol. Innovative giveaway item to attract female fans. Edited June 22, 2016 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 (edited) http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/view/wi...rd/group/league 8 teams within 4 games for both wildcard spots. Sox doing themselves a favor, and doing a favor for the rest of the league too. Edited June 23, 2016 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Sox doing themselves a favor, and doing a favor the rest of the league too. ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 04:08 AM) Get ready for the tease if the Sox win tomorrow. Astros just moved to .500. Don't fall for it. Facts are facts and this year's White Sox team can't beat Cleveland, KC or Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 0-9 their last three road trips to those cities. 5-17 for their last 22 AL Central games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FT35 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 07:10 AM) 0-9 their last three road trips to those cities. 5-17 for their last 22 AL Central games. Not to throw grass on the false hope fire, but they are still just a solid run (against any opponents) from being right there. It's possible to hang in the picture because KC/CLE/DET will be beating up on each other. Certainly another 5-17 Central run won't cut it, but if they could bump that to 10-12 over the next 22 Central games, who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 02:19 AM) Don't fall for it. Facts are facts and this year's White Sox team can't beat Cleveland, KC or Detroit. If they get over .500 after today, I'll be cautiously optimistic knowing full well what faces them when they get the final 5 weeks of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Can someone explain how the Sox can't beat mediocre teams in their division but can beat up a pretty good team in Boston? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 09:15 AM) Can someone explain how the Sox can't beat mediocre teams in their division but can beat up a pretty good team in Boston? Mediocre teams are very inconsistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (FT35 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 07:35 AM) Not to throw grass on the false hope fire, but they are still just a solid run (against any opponents) from being right there. It's possible to hang in the picture because KC/CLE/DET will be beating up on each other. Certainly another 5-17 Central run won't cut it, but if they could bump that to 10-12 over the next 22 Central games, who knows. I bet we could find this same exact post (X1000) from the end of last July/early August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FT35 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 08:59 AM) I bet we could find this same exact post (X1000) from the end of last July/early August. Can't argue here! The margin of error is small in our games with the Twins...we need to essentially win out our games with them, then hope for the Tigers to give us a few gifts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footlongcomiskeydog Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 So here we sit on June 23rd talking about the second wildcard. Has everyone already given up hopes on winning the division? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 10:19 AM) So here we sit on June 23rd talking about the second wildcard. Has everyone already given up hopes on winning the division? It's possible the Indians are just better than the Sox. If the Indians starting five stay healthy, and they get Brantley back at some productive level (or make a trade), they could be a 90+ win team, while the Sox are not. I'd love it if the Sox found a way to win 88 games still by Shields doing anything, the bullpen getting back into a groove, and trading for another bat. But they don't deserve any faith in doing that...just hope...big hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 10:58 AM) It's possible the Indians are just better than the Sox. If the Indians starting five stay healthy, and they get Brantley back at some productive level (or make a trade), they could be a 90+ win team, while the Sox are not. I'd love it if the Sox found a way to win 88 games still by Shields doing anything, the bullpen getting back into a groove, and trading for another bat. But they don't deserve any faith in doing that...just hope...big hope. If you are talking about potential, the Sox are sitting at .500, with a lot of guys having underachieved this year, and not many at all having overachieved. We haven't seen a hot Frazier or Abreu, or much of any offensive player who can be good. If Shields is even mediocre, this team improves a ton. If we are playing the "if" game, the Sox have as good of a case as anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) If you are talking about potential, the Sox are sitting at .500, with a lot of guys having underachieved this year, and not many at all having overachieved. We haven't seen a hot Frazier or Abreu, or much of any offensive player who can be good. If Shields is even mediocre, this team improves a ton. If we are playing the "if" game, the Sox have as good of a case as anyone. Three days ago they wouldn't have been wrong if they changed managers. I'm cautiously optimistic with what they can do playing 12 of 15 at home after today, but again, when there are 33 games left in the season, the Sox play the Indians, Royals, and Tigers 20 of 26, then finish with TB and Minnesota the final 7. Anything is possible, but anything better than 10-16 those 26 would be a nice surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 Today would have put the White Sox 2.5 behind the Red Sox. Instead, they are 4.5 back of them. Now they play the Blue Jays- who are the second wildcard, 3.5 behind. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/view/wild-card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captain54 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) If you are talking about potential, the Sox are sitting at .500, with a lot of guys having underachieved this year, and not many at all having overachieved. The entire team overachieved in April, early May. That ship has sailed. If it wasn't for that, we'd be battling the Twinkies for the cellar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) If you are talking about potential, the Sox are sitting at .500, with a lot of guys having underachieved this year, and not many at all having overachieved. We haven't seen a hot Frazier or Abreu, or much of any offensive player who can be good. If Shields is even mediocre, this team improves a ton. If we are playing the "if" game, the Sox have as good of a case as anyone. There aren't a "lot of guys having underachieved". Frazier's average is way down, and Abreu is producing at a lower level than expected, but that's it. There are no surprises from the rest of the lineup, particularly those dumpster dive moves you called "surreal" in nature after they were all made in the offseason. Nothing underachieving about what we've seen from Jackson, Rollins, Avila, Navarro, or even Lawrie this season, not to mention that from holdovers Avi and Shuck. Their output is exactly in line with their performances of recent years. There was no basis coming into this season to expect anything different than what we've seen. You played the "oh, they just underachieved" card to defend and explain away the entire 2015 season. That dog is no longer hunting as we approach the midway point of the 2016 season. Edited June 24, 2016 by Thad Bosley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 08:20 PM) There aren't a "lot of guys having underachieved". Frazier's average is way down, and Abreu is producing at a lower level than expected, but that's it. There are no surprises from the rest of the lineup, particularly those dumpster dive moves you called "surreal" in nature after they were all made in the offseason. Nothing underachieving about what we've seen from Jackson, Rollins, Avila, Navarro, or even Lawrie this season, not to mention that from holdovers Avi and Shuck. Their output is exactly in line with their performances of recent years. There was no basis coming into this season to expect anything different than what we've seen. You played the "oh, they just underachieved" card to defend and explain away the entire 2015 season. That dog is no longer hunting as we approach the midway point of the 2016 season. I would add that their core of best players have also been very healthy this season but we see so many players going down to injury that The sox can expect to lose 1 or 2 key players for some stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) If we are playing the "if" game, the Sox have as good of a case as anyone. So the team slogan has gone from "All In" to "All If". Terrific! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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