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Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2018


Bob Sacamano
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/proj...s-for-2018.html

 

For the White Sox:

 

Al Alburquerque (5.030) – $1.1MM

Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM

Zach Putnam (4.135) – $1.4MM

Jake Petricka (4.044) – $1.1MM

Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM

Danny Farquhar (3.136) – $1.5MM

Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM

Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM

Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM

 

A couple of these guys likely won't be back (AL-AL, Putnam, Farquhar). This also may end up being a little off when it's all said and done but still, a close estimate.

Edited by soxfan2014
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In my opinion, I think Putnam gets non-tendered, then resigned for a cheaper price... Even though he is an injury risk, it's worth gambling on him at, say, around 800k. I know we need arms, but I really hope Petricka isn't back. Get him out of here. Knowing the Sox, he may be a guy they non-tender and try and do a MLC on. That I'd feel better about, but still.

Edited by Soxnfins
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QUOTE (Soxnfins @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 08:55 AM)
In my opinion, I think Putnam gets non-tendered, then resigned for a cheaper price... Even though he is an injury risk, it's worth gambling on him at, say, around 800k. I know we need arms, but I really hope Petricka isn't back. Get him out of here. Knowing the Sox, he may be a guy they non-tender and try and do a MLC on. That I'd feel better about, but still.

 

Putnam is missing most of next year so I think he will be non-tendered and signed to a minor league deal.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 12:01 PM)
Agree about Albuquerque gone and Putnam re-signed to a minor league deal. The numbers look pretty close although I think Avi's projection is a tad lite. I think Avi gets 8M and deserves it.

 

Yea I know the arb process is moving away from traditional stats (where avi stands out) but there is no way the Sox low ball him like and go to arb. I'd bet they offer him 7.5 million, he counters 9 million, and they agree around 8 and avoid arb. The sox rarely if ever go to arb, right?

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 11:01 AM)
Agree about Albuquerque gone and Putnam re-signed to a minor league deal. The numbers look pretty close although I think Avi's projection is a tad lite. I think Avi gets 8M and deserves it.

 

 

Curious as to why everyone want to punt Alburquerque? I know he isn't Kenley Jansen or anything, but he has been fairly effective and the Sox aren't exactly dripping with bullpen options. 1.1 seems like a fairly small risk to me.

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QUOTE (turnin' two @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 01:20 PM)
Curious as to why everyone want to punt Alburquerque? I know he isn't Kenley Jansen or anything, but he has been fairly effective and the Sox aren't exactly dripping with bullpen options. 1.1 seems like a fairly small risk to me.

 

Could probably get him cheaper. I guess it comes down to which direciont the Sox want to go. If they basically hold pat, they're not going to be pretty bad again, and may as well let younger guys that are a part of the future get time in the pen. If they actually want to try to cobble together a squad that may have the chance to hang around .500 past the deadline, I would agree that having another veteran in the pen at minimal cost can't hurt. But I'd also expect them to shoot a little higher the Alburquerque if that is their plan.

Edited by ChiSox59
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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 10:01 AM)
Agree about Albuquerque gone and Putnam re-signed to a minor league deal. The numbers look pretty close although I think Avi's projection is a tad lite. I think Avi gets 8M and deserves it.

 

 

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 12:17 PM)
Yea I know the arb process is moving away from traditional stats (where avi stands out) but there is no way the Sox low ball him like and go to arb. I'd bet they offer him 7.5 million, he counters 9 million, and they agree around 8 and avoid arb. The sox rarely if ever go to arb, right?

 

Idk, Matt Swartz has gotten pretty damn good at predicting arb stuff. There are always a couple surprises, though. FWIW, his goal is accuracy based on past data, not on any type of projections on what a player DESERVES, or is REALLY WORTH or anything like that. As far as I know, arb is based heavily on precedent and comps, and still takes traditional numbers into account.

 

So if Avi's seems light, I'm guessing it's because his power numbers (specifically HR/RBI) will look low when compared to other RFs his age in the recent past.

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QUOTE (turnin' two @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 01:20 PM)
Curious as to why everyone want to punt Alburquerque? I know he isn't Kenley Jansen or anything, but he has been fairly effective and the Sox aren't exactly dripping with bullpen options. 1.1 seems like a fairly small risk to me.

Meh, the money is irrelevant, I just don't see much of anything in Albuquerque. For the most part he's a 31 year old 4A relief pitcher. Rather see the Sox convert Hawkins to a reliever and throw him to the wolves.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 01:31 PM)
Idk, Matt Swartz has gotten pretty damn good at predicting arb stuff. There are always a couple surprises, though. FWIW, his goal is accuracy based on past data, not on any type of projections on what a player DESERVES, or is REALLY WORTH or anything like that. As far as I know, arb is based heavily on precedent and comps, and still takes traditional numbers into account.

 

So if Avi's seems light, I'm guessing it's because his power numbers (specifically HR/RBI) will look low when compared to other RFs his age in the recent past.

I agree Matt does a great job with these things and to be honest, I have no rational behind the number being lite other than it just feels lite to me.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 03:04 PM)
Meh, the money is irrelevant, I just don't see much of anything in Albuquerque. For the most part he's a 31 year old 4A relief pitcher. Rather see the Sox convert Hawkins to a reliever and throw him to the wolves.

 

 

He has a career 3.16 ERA, with almost 11 k/9. Even over the last 1-2-3 seasons, he has been respectable. Not sure the Sox have a ton of prospects ready for relief roles and I don't think they will spend money on top relievers. Alburquerque seems like a good fit to me. Not suggesting he is featured in a high leverage role, but for some middle relief/ mop up innings, he seems reasonable.

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This is what I was talking about with extension talk for Avi and Abreu both. The system of how arbitration works and what you pay players in specific years is very regimented. With comps and histories pretty tightly laid out in front of you, these guys usually are hitting narrow ranges, and only are really getting paid big at the very back end of arbitration if they have a stellar history.

 

We could look at some scenarios where maybe Avi gets a bit more this year in order to give up a little bit on the free agent year side, but also have a guarantee no matter what he does for the next few years. If he really does like it here, maybe Rick can whip up something that works.

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