Dominikk85 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 enjoy https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...ld-be-anything/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I know it is just a fangraphs projection but will all of the starters have an ERA above 5? I’d think the team can still be better than 65 wins as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 QUOTE (GermanSock @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 02:55 AM) enjoy https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...ld-be-anything/ Yeah and Harry Pavlidis from BP in his Soxmachine podcast interview said the same. As a fan, it's easy to pant a rosier picture, but I also get there could be some disasters either in stop gap vets like Shields and MiGo, or poor performance from Giolito Lopes and most likely Fulmer. But, I do think becoming a big league pitcher is hard, and I won't be fatalistic if Giolito has a poor year if I see signs of him figuring it out. He could find his curveball and be Rich Hill. He could find a slider and have a workable 3 pitch repertoire. He has options to find to make a good pitcher if phase one doesn't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 08:59 AM) Yeah and Harry Pavlidis from BP in his Soxmachine podcast interview said the same. As a fan, it's easy to pant a rosier picture, but I also get there could be some disasters either in stop gap vets like Shields and MiGo, or poor performance from Giolito Lopes and most likely Fulmer. But, I do think becoming a big league pitcher is hard, and I won't be fatalistic if Giolito has a poor year if I see signs of him figuring it out. He could find his curveball and be Rich Hill. He could find a slider and have a workable 3 pitch repertoire. He has options to find to make a good pitcher if phase one doesn't work. Something like this is a happy medium. I don't like the lack of variety, but the average might not be too far from average. My guess is that a couple have breakout years, while a couple just bomb, and the average starters ERA is in the high 4 to 5 area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 09:20 AM) I think we are going to see a very up and down season from Giolito. He seemed to be built back up from scratch last season and showed some positive flashes. If he can build on that in 2018, that's a huge positive and I expect some bumps along the way and he settles into consistent mechanics. I actually believe him that the ball being different in MLB caused problems with his curve. And I'm hoping the offseason of him playing with the grips means he gets it back. As we saw in playoffs, pounding zone with a good curveball (not what he had last year) is super helpful. And of course I believe he has one in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 The rotation is really going to make or break the team this year from a record standpoint. By mid-season we could have a rotation full of young studs or a ton of question marks. While by no means do I think this happens, but if enough of the kids (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, & Kopech) take positive steps forward this team could see a Twins like improvement in 2018. Obviously we’re more likely to see a mix of good & bad outcomes, but it’s going to be exciting as hell to follow this young staff next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 10:09 AM) The rotation is really going to make or break the team this year from a record standpoint. By mid-season we could have a rotation full of young studs or a ton of question marks. While by no means do I think this happens, but if enough of the kids (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, & Kopech) take positive steps forward this team could see a Twins like improvement in 2018. Obviously we're more likely to see a mix of good & bad outcomes, but it's going to be exciting as hell to follow this young staff next year. If we have seen anything is that this will not be linear. They are all question marks, and they probably will still be after this season. Even a guy like Rodon who has been doing this for years still has his question marks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I think people have come to grips with how bad the rotation could be, but I'm not sure I've reckoned with how bad the lineup could be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 One thing that article points out to me is the systemic biases projection systems have. First and foremost, the ERA-FIP spreads are almost non-existent in the projections, which almost never happens. Then, it projects each young pitcher to perform poorly and worse than last year. This is likely due to the lack of data on them (objects with less observed data are tougher to predict because of the lack of data) and filling in with averages of some sort. People tend to take these projection systems very seriously, and I don't understand why. They're typically a conservative prediction of future performance based on past data. This will inherently make predicting positive development and breakouts of young stars nearly impossible. So why would anyone take what ZiPS or Steamer has to say about anyone who's been in the league for less than 3 seasons seriously? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 We are in a golden age of sox media. This piece by Fegan on Farquhar and Giolito taught me a lot, and focuses a lot on what works for Giolito. (subscriber only) https://www.theathletic.com/246514/2018/02/...-lucas-giolito/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 I'm a believer in Giolito's curve and also the slider but not sure I believe into his fastball. Maybe he can get it back into the mid 90s which would be good but they still say it is a flat pitch without a ton of movement. I think at 94 it is ok even if not really good but at 91 it could be really batting practice. Maybe he can be a pitcher type like kluber who also doesn't have a good FB but uses a great curve like a third of the time (although kluber does have a pretty solid cutter he uses as his second fastball). Maybe something like 40% FB 20% slider, 25% curve, 15% change can work for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 QUOTE (GermanSock @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 01:24 AM) I'm a believer in Giolito's curve and also the slider but not sure I believe into his fastball. Maybe he can get it back into the mid 90s which would be good but they still say it is a flat pitch without a ton of movement. I think at 94 it is ok even if not really good but at 91 it could be really batting practice. Maybe he can be a pitcher type like kluber who also doesn't have a good FB but uses a great curve like a third of the time (although kluber does have a pretty solid cutter he uses as his second fastball). Maybe something like 40% FB 20% slider, 25% curve, 15% change can work for him. The White Sox add cutters to most pitchers' repertoires. If Giolito needs a cutter, Coop will add it. If that turns him into Kluber or something similar, that's one less problem for the rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GenericUserName Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 09:17 AM) The White Sox add cutters to most pitchers' repertoires. If Giolito needs a cutter, Coop will add it. If that turns him into Kluber or something similar, that's one less problem for the rebuild. Is adding the cutter an organizational thing that they do in the minors too or is that just a Coop thing for the big league guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 10:29 AM) Is adding the cutter an organizational thing that they do in the minors too or is that just a Coop thing for the big league guys? I'm not sure and I think I've seen them add a cutter to a pitcher both in MLB and in the minors. So...yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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