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> 2018 MLB Draft, Sox pick #4
steveno89
post Dec 8, 2017 -> 10:58 AM
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QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 09:13 AM) *
This is honestly why I'm scared about passing on Kelenic. It seems so similar and he has done nothing but crush the ball and play good defense but no one has him rated in like the top 5. He was already in the finals in several home run derbies and he looks like he could still add bulk. I've seen 65 grade run times out of him, but many predict he is going to slow down. He can steal a base, play CF, and still hit for a high average even with game power. The only real knock I've seen on him is that he is from Wisconsin and might not face the best competition.


Kelenic will have scouts all over him this season since he is projected to be a top 15 draft pick. I think by the time of the draft we will have a much better sense of what sort of player he can be.
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GenericUserName
post Dec 8, 2017 -> 11:12 AM
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 10:58 AM) *
Kelenic will have scouts all over him this season since he is projected to be a top 15 draft pick. I think by the time of the draft we will have a much better sense of what sort of player he can be.

I heard he's only doing travel ball this spring so hopefully he gets out there against some good competition. The Sox should have an advantage with him come draft time with him being so close by that they can probably watch him more or bring him in more often.
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Joshua Strong
post Dec 8, 2017 -> 01:48 PM
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QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 8, 2017 -> 11:12 AM) *
I heard he's only doing travel ball this spring so hopefully he gets out there against some good competition. The Sox should have an advantage with him come draft time with him being so close by that they can probably watch him more or bring him in more often.


He played for a Sox sponsored team
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GermanSock
post Dec 9, 2017 -> 06:25 AM
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question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick.
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GenericUserName
post Dec 9, 2017 -> 09:18 AM
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QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 06:25 AM) *
question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick.

I just wonder why everyone assumes that a kid is as fast as they are ever going to be when they are 18? When people talk about high school football recruits they say how they will add muscle and get faster, but for every baseball player the consensus is that they will add muscle and slow down. With his current run times he could probably stay in CF if he just maintains his speed.
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GermanSock
post Dec 9, 2017 -> 03:34 PM
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QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 10:18 AM) *
I just wonder why everyone assumes that a kid is as fast as they are ever going to be when they are 18? When people talk about high school football recruits they say how they will add muscle and get faster, but for every baseball player the consensus is that they will add muscle and slow down. With his current run times he could probably stay in CF if he just maintains his speed.


because almost all baseball players who add muscle mass do slow down. especially when they are already like 200 lb like kelenic. it doesn't always has to be like that but often it is.



longenhagen has turang and gorman ahead of him and said kelenic is well rounded but no elite tools. he is a good prospect but not sure I would take him over de sedas or turang
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steveno89
post Dec 9, 2017 -> 05:20 PM
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QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 07:25 AM) *
question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick.


When drafting a high school outfielder that high, I would be very reluctant to select a player in the top five unless I really felt they could profile as a center fielder. Players need a hell of a bat to profile as an mlb corner regular, giving you far less margin for error.
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GermanSock
post Dec 11, 2017 -> 04:44 AM
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 06:20 PM) *
When drafting a high school outfielder that high, I would be very reluctant to select a player in the top five unless I really felt they could profile as a center fielder. Players need a hell of a bat to profile as an mlb corner regular, giving you far less margin for error.


Problem with HS Corner bats is the high range of outcomes. even an advanced HS bat has a pretty big range of outcomes. if the Player hits the 90th percentile outcome he will be usefull everywhere but at a Corner basically only 75th plus percentile outcomes Play at all. so while the bat is not super risky he has to hit really well to make an Impact. if the same Player Plays up the middle he might only Need to hit his 50th percentile outcome (numbers are made up- don't know the actual numbers) and still is a productive Player.

when you have a bat like harper that doesn't matter but few HS bats are so good that you say his median outcome will Play at a Corner. that is why Teams prefer up the middle Talent from hs picks in the top10

This post has been edited by GermanSock: Dec 11, 2017 -> 04:49 AM
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ChiSoxJon
post Dec 12, 2017 -> 02:18 PM
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Sounds like CWS will take a HSer

I like Turang
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Balta1701
post Dec 12, 2017 -> 03:46 PM
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QUOTE
JRFegan
2h
White Sox Nick Hostetler says their glut of prospects in A-ball could provide a reason to opt for more high school prospects in next June’s draft
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SoxAce
post Dec 12, 2017 -> 04:03 PM
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Mentioned that in the Abreu thread. Hahn and Hostetler were hinting that since this past draft for 2018.

This post has been edited by SoxAce: Dec 12, 2017 -> 04:05 PM
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bmags
post Dec 13, 2017 -> 08:40 PM
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QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 04:03 PM) *
Mentioned that in the Abreu thread. Hahn and Hostetler were hinting that since this past draft for 2018.


They hinted at it for last draft, but I do think with the new allotments it will be harder to get those 2nd 3rd round high schoolers when you are only 10th. Will be easier with our budget this year.
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