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Bullpen Leverage and Maikel Cleto


Feeky Magee
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Why the f*** was Cleto in to pitch last night, specifically in the 9th? Before last night his K/9 was a little over 4, his BB/9 about 6, his BABIP .125 and his xFIP over 6. The only positive thing on a statistical side of things was that he had a 0.00 ERA. This despite giving up the game-winning run at the Royals to Perez with an awful hanging pitch. All things (largely) outside of his control being equal and his ERA would have been 6+.

 

This is a dude who walked 53 guys in 53.1 innings at AAA for the Cardinals last year, and then 21 in 38 innings for the Royals AAA. He had faced 2 guys in the 8th last night and walked one of them.

 

So why, why, why was he brought into start the 9th inning in a one-run game? I get that he's a reclamation project and his stuff has the potential to be nasty etc. etc. but you have Lindstrom and Webb available. Lindstrom has been pretty bad but his peripherals were still comfortably better than Cleto. Webb is obviously the best arm in the pen right now. I get that you don't want him to close just yet, but then s***, put him in for the 8th before Cleto even gets in the game. It was a really high leverage situation too, right where you want your best relievers.

 

Is it as simple as Robin seeing Cleto's 0.00 ERA and thinking "wow, he's been good, I'll put him in for the highest leverage situations right now"? For the 9th it was probably a case of realising only Lindstrom and Webb were left and trying to avoid using them so the pen would have something in reserve, but if that was the case, use Webb in the 8th and to start the 9th, and when you have to use Cleto it's probably in a lower-leverage situation.

 

I sure as s*** hope we're not facing a similar situation and Robin looking at his 1.35 ERA and throwing him in. His K/9 is now 4.05, his BB/9 9.45, BABIP .118 and xFIP 7.59. He's still due to regress pretty fast, pretty soon, ERA-wise. Until he shows progress in his peripherals, specifically his control, he should be up in the lowest-leverage situations possible.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:33 AM)
Why the f*** was Cleto in to pitch last night, specifically in the 9th? Before last night his K/9 was a little over 4, his BB/9 about 6, his BABIP .125 and his xFIP over 6. The only positive thing on a statistical side of things was that he had a 0.00 ERA. This despite giving up the game-winning run at the Royals to Perez with an awful hanging pitch. All things (largely) outside of his control being equal and his ERA would have been 6+.

 

This is a dude who walked 53 guys in 53.1 innings at AAA for the Cardinals last year, and then 21 in 38 innings for the Royals AAA. He had faced 2 guys in the 8th last night and walked one of them.

 

So why, why, why was he brought into start the 9th inning in a one-run game? I get that he's a reclamation project and his stuff has the potential to be nasty etc. etc. but you have Lindstrom and Webb available. Lindstrom has been pretty bad but his peripherals were still comfortably better than Cleto. Webb is obviously the best arm in the pen right now. I get that you don't want him to close just yet, but then s***, put him in for the 8th before Cleto even gets in the game. It was a really high leverage situation too, right where you want your best relievers.

 

Is it as simple as Robin seeing Cleto's 0.00 ERA and thinking "wow, he's been good, I'll put him in for the highest leverage situations right now"? For the 9th it was probably a case of realising only Lindstrom and Webb were left and trying to avoid using them so the pen would have something in reserve, but if that was the case, use Webb in the 8th and to start the 9th, and when you have to use Cleto it's probably in a lower-leverage situation.

 

I sure as s*** hope we're not facing a similar situation and Robin looking at his 1.35 ERA and throwing him in. His K/9 is now 4.05, his BB/9 9.45, BABIP .118 and xFIP 7.59. He's still due to regress pretty fast, pretty soon, ERA-wise. Until he shows progress in his peripherals, specifically his control, he should be up in the lowest-leverage situations possible.

No offense, but I'm sure Robin knows more about baseball and numbers than probably anyone on this board.

 

Lindstrom was hammered on this board and others. Now all of a sudden, people are up in arms he didn't start the 9th inning last night on all White Sox message boards.

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I don't see how you can blame Cleto, he's not the only one handing out free passes. Throw a dart out there and you'll hit a turd. This bullpen is just bad (at least right now), as in '07 bad. But if the Sox are going to be better this year they need guys like Cleto to get better and in pressure situations.

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And while everyone sings Webb's praises, he promptly walked the first guy he faced last night and let him score.

 

Robin could have left Downs in, or Cleto in or Petricka in, and the only difference it would have made was the game would have ended sooner.

 

I am not understanding why the bullpen is having such a tough time with walks. It obviously has been discussed and probably at least partially the reason for the quick hooks. After all, it was a game the Sox were winning.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 10:37 AM)
No offense, but I'm sure Robin knows more about baseball and numbers than probably anyone on this board.

 

Lindstrom was hammered on this board and others. Now all of a sudden, people are up in arms he didn't start the 9th inning last night on all White Sox message boards.

I wasn't hammering Lindstrom. So I get to say this. :P

 

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 10:42 AM)
I don't see how you can blame Cleto, he's not the only one handing out free passes. Throw a dart out there and you'll hit a turd. This bullpen is just bad (at least right now), as in '07 bad. But if the Sox are going to be better this year they need guys like Cleto to get better and in pressure situations.

He's not the only one, but he's the one with by far the worst history of it. 53 guys in 53.1 innings at Memphis last year. 8.94 per 9. Donnie Veal is the worst of the rest and the most he's walked in a year where he pitched over 50 innings was 5 per 9.

 

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 10:48 AM)
And while everyone sings Webb's praises, he promptly walked the first guy he faced last night and let him score.

Webb will walk guys. He doesn't have impeccable control. But, again, he's never come close to the sort of problems Cleto has. Nobody in the pen has. And these are problems Cleto had at his worst ever just last year, at a lower level.

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Answer seems pretty obvious to me. Cleto was being tried out for closer, considering that Lindstrom sucked. he was sent out there to close. Webb is the long relief man so you don't put him in when there is nobody left in the pen.

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Without getting too critical of Robin, I do wonder about his strategic thought process/knowledge of his new players' histories, etc. I think he's the manager precisely because he's the anti-Ozzie. He won't go off the reservation, and will do exactly what the FO wants him to do. But is that what we really want in a manager?

 

I believe they see him as the no-panic steady-hand to keep everyone calm in a Joe Torre-like way when the team is good. But we're a long way from that. I don't want to overestimate the mgr's role in last night's game, and I think that the impact of the manager is largely overrated. But, that said, I don't think we have a particularly good one.

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QUOTE (Hawkfan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:01 AM)
Answer seems pretty obvious to me. Cleto was being tried out for closer, considering that Lindstrom sucked. he was sent out there to close. Webb is the long relief man so you don't put him in when there is nobody left in the pen.

Don't you then question why a guy who walked 53 guys in 53.1 innings at Memphis just last year is being tried out for closer at the major league level? The guy who had the second-worst walks per 9 innings in the entire minor leagues? And the guy who really hadn't started well for us, if you looked at anything but ERA?

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 05:09 PM)
Don't you then question why a guy who walked 53 guys in 53.1 innings at Memphis just last year is being tried out for closer at the major league level? The guy who had the second-worst walks per 9 innings in the entire minor leagues? And the guy who really hadn't started well for us, if you looked at anything but ERA?

 

Not sure what's going on with the bullpen, but nearly everyone out there can't throw a strike with a breaking ball. You then compare that to the Red Sox bullpen, who made the Sox hitters look silly. I don't think the Sox bullpen got more than 2 or 3 swings and misses over the last 6 innings.

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There are a few things we don't know here that make a big difference. Top of this list is we don't know if Robin was even looking to replace Lindstrom, or was not pitching him for a specific reason. We also don't know if the team was looking at pitch and/or inning restrictions with certain guys who have had multiple inning and/or back to back outings which they were hoping to not use in this game last night.

 

To assume the manager was JUST looking at ERA for one guy is a pretty low assumption. Don Cooper is the guy who really manages the pitching staff, and the guy is one of the best in the game. I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt because of their history.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:12 AM)
Not sure what's going on with the bullpen, but nearly everyone out there can't throw a strike with a breaking ball. You then compare that to the Red Sox bullpen, who made the Sox hitters look silly. I don't think the Sox bullpen got more than 2 or 3 swings and misses over the last 6 innings.

The sunny-side of this crapitude is that we have nothing but one year commitments to any of these guys. No Linebrink situations, at least.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:45 AM)
When you include ST Cleto had 7 walks in 17 innings(before last night) and he's been damn near unhittable. I have zero problem with them trying him out at closer. I don't care what he did last year, he was the hottest RP this year.

He's been "unhittable" because his BABIP is .118.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 01:15 PM)
He's been "unhittable" because his BABIP is .118.

 

Why is his BABIP .118? What are the type of balls in play are turning into outs? It appears he has had a lot of pop-ups because hitters are able to square his pitches. Cleto's been the best bullpen guy this year thus far, no reason he shouldn't have been the guy until he crapped the bed.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 01:17 PM)
Why is his BABIP .118? What are the type of balls in play are turning into outs? It appears he has had a lot of pop-ups because hitters are able to square his pitches. Cleto's been the best bullpen guy this year thus far, no reason he shouldn't have been the guy until he crapped the bed.

Pitchers have relatively little control over BABIP. The typical range is .290 to .300. Certain factors can controlled by the pitcher can have minor impacts to this and bump it higher or lower, but not to even close a degree as .118. And certainly Cleto's never shown that he has any particular ability to induce such weak contact that it makes his BABIP abnormally low over a long period of time, you have to go back to 2011 to find any stay he had at any level where his BABIP was lower than .300. In his 9 inning spell in the majors with the Cardinals in 2012 he had a BABIP of .474, about the same over the norm as his current one is below. It's just random, lucky variance. He has most decidedly not been the best bullpen guy this year, not before last night and certainly not after. And even if he had, that doesn't mean you take that extremely low sample size and immediately bump him into a high-leverage reliever, ignoring his extremely recent history of absolutely awful control problems - again, the second worst BB/9 in all of minor league baseball last year.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 04:02 PM)
Pitchers have relatively little control over BABIP. The typical range is .290 to .300. Certain factors can controlled by the pitcher can have minor impacts to this and bump it higher or lower, but not to even close a degree as .118. And certainly Cleto's never shown that he has any particular ability to induce such weak contact that it makes his BABIP abnormally low over a long period of time, you have to go back to 2011 to find any stay he had at any level where his BABIP was lower than .300. In his 9 inning spell in the majors with the Cardinals in 2012 he had a BABIP of .474, about the same over the norm as his current one is below. It's just random, lucky variance. He has most decidedly not been the best bullpen guy this year, not before last night and certainly not after. And even if he had, that doesn't mean you take that extremely low sample size and immediately bump him into a high-leverage reliever, ignoring his extremely recent history of absolutely awful control problems - again, the second worst BB/9 in all of minor league baseball last year.

 

I don't think anyone on the coaching staff cares what his minors stats were last year. The book on him has always been that he has a great arm with little control. His control has been much improved thus far (until last night) and sometimes you have to put a guy in a spot to see how he responds.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 03:10 PM)
I don't think anyone on the coaching staff cares what his minors stats were last year. The book on him has always been that he has a great arm with little control. His control has been much improved thus far (until last night) and sometimes you have to put a guy in a spot to see how he responds.

Aside from the foolishness of ignoring a guy's recent history in judging him, before last night his BB/9 on the season was 5.9. Of the 206 pitchers to throw more than 50 innings in the majors last season, dead last in BB/9 was Yoervis Medina, at 5.29.

 

In addition to this, Cleto had walked one of the two batters he had faced, bumping him up to over 7 walks per 9, before he was put back out to start the 9th inning in a one-run game.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 04:25 PM)
Aside from the foolishness of ignoring a guy's recent history in judging him, before last night his BB/9 on the season was 5.9. Of the 206 pitchers to throw more than 50 innings in the majors last season, dead last in BB/9 was Yoervis Medina, at 5.29.

 

In addition to this, Cleto had walked one of the two batters he had faced, bumping him up to over 7 walks per 9, before he was put back out to start the 9th inning in a one-run game.

 

You are killing it.

 

I like Cleto's arm, but I still feel that for as good as his stuff is, he does not strike out nearly enough guys. I'd really like to see him do that on a more consistent basis.

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Let's face it. You cannot trade Addison Reed and have no closer in waiting and expect anything but this to happen. It was a boneheaded decision to trade Reed with NOTHING left over. How this team is flirting with .500 is amazing with this bullpen. And if the rotation loses Sale ... wow, the bullpen is going to be needed A LOT. The bullpen has sucked for years now but at least the Sox have always had a closer.

Edited by greg775
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 03:35 PM)
Let's face it. You cannot trade Addison Reed and have no closer in waiting and expect anything but this to happen. It was a boneheaded decision to trade Reed with NOTHING left over. How this team is flirting with .500 is amazing with this bullpen. And if the rotation loses Sale ... wow, the bullpen is going to be needed A LOT. The bullpen has sucked for years now but at least the Sox have always had a closer.

 

Hahn traded a reliever for a guy who has high upside and could be in the starting lineup for 6 years. It was not a bad trade.

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