1. Yes, Martin Maldonado can be a downgrade from the catchers spot last year, because he was worse than the White Sox’s catchers last year. Imagine Grandal except he also doesn’t walk and you have to constantly hear what a great job he’s doing, that’s what Maldonado was last year. Hopefully Lee can do something with this opportunity.
2. Nicky Lopez had an OPS last year 30 pints lower than Elvis Andrus last year .630 is not “way less bad” than .660.
3. Note how much of your concept Is “maybe they will all break out this year”. That was supposed to be a part of their competitive team last year! We heard that all the time. Maybe it happens this time, but with this coaching staff and the GM having no control over rushing people upwards I will believe it when I see it.
4. You’re right, that bullpen performance last year was unusually bad for the resources put into it. However. Same coach, same pitching coach, less talent. Will count it as improved when it is improved.
5. The Sox have some downside risks too. Luis Robert was their only real contributor last year, and he counts as injury prone and likely difficult to coach. Room for improvement if healthy the whole year, but where are they without him or if he slows down a tiny bit?
6. The White Sox had fewer WAR and a worse run differential than the Royals. They only wound up in 4th place because they were a little lucky and the Royals were unlucky. That could repeat this year, they get lucky and it carries them to 65 wins, or a team with better talent could also drop into the 50s, even if you believe they have better talent.
I’ve seen way too many people give credit to a GM who was making poor moves that made people feel good only to proclaim no one could have seen issues coming when they happened. So personally, I still think they’re crap and the jury is out on whether they have learned any lessons from how they got into this mess. That last part is all I’m interested in this season, and the rushing guys upwards who haven’t earned it does not give me any confidence.