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Sox Place Three in Fangraphs' Top 50 Trade Rankings


chitownsportsfan
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#10, Jose Abreu:

 

Yes, this is an aggressive ranking for what amounts to half a season of performance. Yes, this might very well look bad in a year if Abreu is this year’s Chris Davis. But, unlike with Davis, we’ve never seen Abreu not hit like this. The models that attempt to translate Cuban statistics to MLB equivalents projected Abreu as a monster even before the season began. Dan Farnsworth wrote up a glowing report on his swing last October. There are reasons beyond just 400 good plate appearances to think this is what Abreu is.

 

And that makes him, essentially, an older version of Giancarlo Stanton. This is top-of-the-scale power, and 29 teams are likely looking back and kicking themselves that they didn’t bid more for Abreu last winter. If Abreu were made a free agent after this season, I would guess that the bidding would climb over $200 million; after all, he projects to be a similar caliber of player as Prince Fielder did when he hit the market, and Fielder got $216 million two years ago.

 

Instead, Abreu will not free agency for another five years, and he’ll make an average of $10 million per year for the remainder of the contract. The White Sox are going to essentially be enjoying the prime years of one of the game’s best hitters for about 40 percent of his market salary. The deal doesn’t come with any long-term risk, really; even if Abreu regresses heavily, he’ll still be worth the contract unless he gets injured. Kudos to Rick Hahn for aggressively pursuing Abreu last winter, as Abreu’s signing breathed life into an organization that badly needed it.

 

#11, Chris Sale

 

Speaking of crazy cheap players in Chicago, Chris Sale is basically Yu Darvish if you extended his deal for an extra three years. Or Felix Hernandez, if the Mariners were also subsidizing 60% of his remaining contract. Sale is right there with the game’s best pitchers, only he’s earning about one-third of what elite pitchers make these days and he has no real chance for a significant raise any time soon.

 

Or, I’ll put it this way. If a team had a choice between Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale over the next five years, the money they’d save by choosing Sale would allow them to also afford Adam Wainwright. And that’s why Sale is the most valuable pitcher in baseball right now.

 

#37, Jose Quintana

 

In his third year in the big leagues, Quintana is the seasoned veteran of the three, but has quietly developed into one of the best young starting pitchers in the game today. And because the White Sox had the foresight to sign him to a long-term deal before last season, he’ll make a grand total of $20 million over the next four years, and then the White Sox hold a pair of $10 million options if he stays healthy and keeps pitching well.

 

What a great job by Hahn locking these guys up. Sox have quite a foundation to build on. Kudos to the org for turning this around and not doing it the Astros/Cubs way.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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Regarding starting pitchers contracts. Kershaw is set to make 215 million dollars.

 

My starting 5 using Kershaw's 215 million

 

1. Chris Sale (32.5 million)

2. Adam Wainwright (97.5 million)

3. Yu Darvish (60 million)

4. Martin Perez (12.5 million

5. Matt Latos (11.5 million)

 

That's insane.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 18, 2014 -> 01:58 PM)
Cameron doesn't seem to be aware Abreu can (and almost certainly will) opt into arbitration

 

He can't until at least his 3rd year, and unless the contract scale changes drastically, it won't be worth it until probably his 4th year.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 18, 2014 -> 02:33 PM)
He can't until at least his 3rd year, and unless the contract scale changes drastically, it won't be worth it until probably his 4th year.

 

This. I think the three arb year records are around 10/11.5/12.5 for position players. Even if Abreu breaks all three records he wouldn't make significantly more than his contract is worth.

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Something that was mentioned in the comments and I wasn't aware of was Abreu's ability to opt-out of his contact and choose arbitration. At any price, I'm happy to have him. But does this tamper things a little? Or by the time he hits ARB will he be in decline anyways?

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QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Jul 19, 2014 -> 12:22 AM)
Something that was mentioned in the comments and I wasn't aware of was Abreu's ability to opt-out of his contact and choose arbitration. At any price, I'm happy to have him. But does this tamper things a little? Or by the time he hits ARB will he be in decline anyways?

 

If he opts out in favor of arbitration, that means he is still hitting his ass off, and that is a good thing.

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QUOTE (MAX @ Jul 19, 2014 -> 09:47 PM)
When does he have the ability to opt out?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/whit...riel-abreu.html

 

The White Sox have officially announced the signing of Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu to a six-year, $68MM contract. According to the team's official release, the first baseman will receive a $10MM signing bonus before earning $7MM in 2014-15, $10MM in 2016, $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019. Abreu, who isrepresented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management, can opt out of the guaranteed salaries in lieu of arbitration after three years if he wishes, according to Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (on Twitter).
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