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AAP: Nestor Molina


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On December 6, 2011, the White Sox traded closer Sergio Santos straight up for Nestor Molina.

 

RHP

6'1' / 179

23 years old, DOB 1/9/1989 in Valencia, Venezuela

 

Molina was originally added to the Blue Jays 40 man roster on Nov. 18, 2011

 

 

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And now the scouting reports

Molina, a 6'1" righty out of Venezuela and received from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Santos trade, profiles as a command and control ground ball machine. His fastball sits at 91-92 and runs in on the hands of RHB, and he throws a plus splitter that drops off the table, both of which forced minor leaguers at high- and double-A to hit just .234 against him with an impressive 1.43 GB/FB ratio. Molina whiffed 148 in just over 130 innings and walked only 16 for an absurd 9.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

The excellent command on his fastball makes his secondary offerings -- the drop splitter mentioned above along with a developing slider (some call it a curve) and changeup - more effective. With the ability to miss bats (28.9% K rate in 2011) and induce grounders, Molina should be ready to go at some point this summer.

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1. Nestor Molina - The 22 year old Venezuelan RH is in his first year as a starter, having spent the previous three years working out of the bullpen. Molina serves as the perfect illustration of the way in which minor league starters can be prospects while relievers with similar results are viewed with skepticism. At this point Molina has a sterling 1.69 ERA while recording 26 K and only 3 BB in 26.2 innings of work.
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Something older

Drafted: Signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2006

 

Jersey Number: #20 for the Lansing Lugnuts, #60 for the Dunedin Blue Jays in 2010

 

Quick Facts:

 

-Made his professional debut as a 17-year-old in the Venezuelan Summer League

-His favorite player is Melvin Mora

-Hit .252/.380/.280 in 107 at-bats in the Venezuelan Summer League as a position player in 2006

-Had an eye at the plate when he was a hitter, ranking 4th on his team in OBP in 2006, and 3rd in 2007

-In 2007, he hit .208/.354/.278 in 144 at-bats and threw one scoreless inning of relief

- The Jays converted him entirely into a pitching prospect in 2008, where he went 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 37.1 innings while pitching in the Dominican Summer League

Molina was used to fielding ground balls as an infielder until the Blue Jays decided to convert him into a pitcher in 2008. The move already looks like it has paid off.

 

After dominating the Dominican Summer League as a 19-year-old, the Jays felt that Molina needed to be challenged at a higher level in 2009, where he continued to dominate. In a 2009 season spent between the Gulf Coast League and Low-A New York Penn League, Molina went 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA, along with 38 strikeouts in 43 innings.

 

The Jays actually thought so highly of Molina that, despite only throwing 5.2 innings above the Gulf Coast League, they allowed him to start 2010 with the Class-A Lansing Lugnuts.

 

Molina spent virtually all of 2010 with Class-A Lansing, where he continued to roll. He went 8-2 with a 3.17 ERA, along with a 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, and just one home run allowed in 76.2 innings. One of his best performances of the year was on June 15th, when he made one of only his two starts this season. He pitched five shutout innings while giving up only two hits, and was in line for the win until the bullpen unfortunately blew his lead in the final inning of the game.

 

His success at Lansing persuaded the Jays to promote him late in the year to HiA Dunedin, where he pitched even better than he did with Lansing (only appearing in three games though). According to MiLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com, Molina appeared in two games for Dunedin giving up 1 earned run in 4.1 innings. He did, however, according to the Dunedin Blue Jays’ box score for their final game of the season on September 8th, appear in a third game, where he pitched 2.2 shutout innings and gave up only four hits. The inclusion of this third game lowered his 2010 ERA with Dunedin from 2.08 to 1.28.

 

The reasoning behind why the Jays seem so interested in Molina’s development is simple. He’s battles in every count, and can throw three to four pitches over the plate. He relies on his fastball mostly, but he has really developed his cutter into an “out” pitch now as well. Add in the fact he can use a splitter and a changeup whenever he wants and it’s easy to see how he can rack up the strikeouts by keeping hitters off-balance.

 

Normally, using a four-pitch repertoire to throw strikes as a reliever seems excessive. According to Blue Jays minor league pitching coordinator Dane Johnson, the Jays have really used Molina as a reliever only because his arm hasn’t been built up and he’s coming over from being a position player. Johnson also says that Molina’s pitch arsenal makes him think that he could be a starter, and that it’s not out of the question for next season. The Jays did manage to healthily increase Molina’s workload by giving him multiple innings in outings this season, which helped him pitch almost 40 more innings than he did in 2009.

 

Molina is also pitching dominantly in the Venezuelan Winter League right now, where he has gone 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA along with a 1.110 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 24.1 innings so far (18 games).

 

Expected 2011 Team: HiA Dunedin to start

 

Ultimate ceiling if he puts it all together: Long reliever, but could be a #4 or #5 starter depending on his development

 

Molina, who turns just 22-years-old next month, is definitely a Jays prospect to keep an eye on. He was mainly so low on our Top 50 list because of his position as a reliever and how he played only his first full season of baseball in 2010.

 

It will be interesting to see if he is converted into a starter or if he stays as a reliever in 2011, especially if he continues to be successful.

 

With the departures of Trystan Magnuson, Danny Farquhar, and likely Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart from the New Hampshire Fisher Cats roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Molina at the Double-A level before the end of the 2011 season.

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The 22-year old, along with team mate A.J. Jimenez, is growing the number of fans that are paying close attention to his performances every time he plays. What has he done to deserve such close attention and accolades?

 

Most impressively, he has only allowed 3 walks in 36.2 innings. That, to me, is the most significant piece of information we have because it speaks to his deception, not just his stuff. I look to Ks for stuff, and walks for deception and location. Why? If he’s walking a lot of guys, it’s because he’s not hitting his spots and he’s not fooling anyone with his pitches. So, not only does he have the stuff, as made evident by his 39 Ks in 36.2 IP, but he’s also dominating hitters on all counts by offering great deception and by locating his pitches particularly well.

 

The other point of note I’d like to make in reference to Molina’s stats is that he has allowed 12 runs overall, with only 7 of them being earned. That’s 5 unearned runs already, something that speaks to the defensive support he’s getting in Dunedin. In comparison, he only had 4 unearned runs in all of 2010, through double the amount of IP. He’s not the only one getting some iffy defensive support there as the fielders have already committed 31 errors in Dunedin in 2011! Sure, those runs are unearned and don’t affect statistics directly, but the extended innings and work caused by them sure do! Therefore, Molina’s performance could actually be even more dominant than his statistics indicate, and that’s a scary thought.

 

His stats so far in 2011 are better than those of Chad Jenkins, Asher Wojciechowski, and Deck McGuire, all much more highly touted prospects before the season began.

 

What do those stats look like?

 

4-2 / 7 GP / 5 GS / 36.2 IP / 30 HA / 7 ER / 3 BB / 39 Ks / 1.72 ERA / .226 AVG

 

He is the winningest Dunedin pitcher, his Whip of 0.90 is best amongst starters, and his his ERA of 1.72 tops them as well. He has given up the fewest walks (3), by far since the Tepera is next with 8, and also leads the impressive Dunedin staff in Ks with a margin of 6 over Deck McGuire. Only McGuire has given up fewer hits (28), but he also has 1 inning less pitched.

 

Dominance, plain and simple, indicates what Molina has done in 2011. Whether or not he can maintain that dominance as he gets further into the season is another question altogether. Will he tire? Probably. But, with his throwing 81 innings in 2010, restrictions on his innings count in 2011 shouldn’t refrain him from pitching all year long as a starter. He’s up to 36.2 IP so far. If he is “allowed” to throw approximately 120 innings or so (a jump of about 40 IP), that should take him very close to the end of the minors season. Just to compare, Joel Carreno threw the most innings for Dunedin in 2010 with 137.1 IP. After that, all pitchers were at 127 IP (Henderson Alvarez) or under.

 

Why do I bring up the innings count? Well, if he does actually get a shot in AA this season, it means that he can get that promotion later on in the seaosn without fear of having his arm get too tired or abused. So, whatever time he gets in AA in 2011, if any, should not be hindered by any restriction.

 

As a final point, I would like to add the following: Molina has only made 5 starts so far in 2011, although his 2 “relief” appearance were both for over 4 IP. A lot can change quickly in baseball, so there’s no telling what will happen in his case. Will he implode this season? Not likely. But, could he tire, do horribly once promoted to AA, or wind up struggling in 2012 as Henderson Alvarez has of late? These are all possibilties, so I do temper my optomism of Molina as much as possible by knowing this. But, what I do know for certain is that he is a beast amongst the top Jays pitching prospects that now needs the attention he deserves. He has earned that respect.

 

Whether the Jays eventually decide to promote Molina, Jenkins, Asher, or Deck, they’re going to be moving hugh-end talent up the ranks. I would argue that at this point, because of both his dominance and experience as a pro, Molina may actually have an edge over the 3 others and could earn the first shot in New Hampshire out of that bunch. I’d place Jenkins as being next in line, with Deck a close 3rd. We’ll see if that comes to reality, but in any promotion, I look forward to seeing how they respond. Because as nice as it is to see all of these arms being so successful in HiA, the real test for all of them will begin when they try to transition to AA and face much stronger and more experienced opponents.

 

Nestor Molina, if we were ranking today, would now be place somewhere in the #15-30 range, held back only by his short track record as a starter and the fact that he’s in HiA. That’s a long ways from his pre-season 47th ranking, and is indicative of just how improved he has been as a starter. He is the fastest moving Jays prospect up all rankings, and will undoubtedly make Baseball America’s top 30 list during their next rankings list if he keeps this up.

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I scouted Molina in Double-A twice this summer and have talked to several other scouts that saw him throughout the year.

 

Despite eye-popping numbers (2.21 ERA in 130.1 IP, 114 H, 16 BB, 148 K across two levels) the 22-year old Molina isn’t an elite level prospect. The proud owner of at least four pitches, Molina can impart spin to the ball and locate everything he throws very well.

 

With a fastball that he can command at an above-average level, Molina offers the ability to mix a four-seam fastball that can reach 92-93 mph on occasion, while also keeping hitters at bay with a sinker and cutter that work in the 88-90 mph range. His ability to command all three variants of his fastball allows him to control at-bats even in obvious fastball counts.

 

Backing up his fastball Molina will throw a curveball, slider and change-up, all three of which grade as at least average pitches during most outings. His change-up is the best of the three pitches earning regular plus grades from scouts.

 

The combination of multiple fastball variations, his off-speed pitches and his ability to locate the ball all combine with his outstanding knowledge of pitch sequence and the “art of pitching.”

 

Molina has a decent frame and could still add some good mass to his body as he completes his physical maturation. Though White Sox fans may believe they received a heftier bounty for Santos, Molina profiles as a solid back of the rotation starter in the big leagues. That said, he will likely rank very highly in the White Sox Top 15 rankings when they debut on Thursday, and that says as much about the rest of the White Sox system as it does Nestor Molina.

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Kenny Williams:

On Nestor Molina and trading Sergio Santos: “Nestor Molina is a guy that has a 90-96 mph fastball that bores in on right-hand hitters, that keeps the ball down in the strikezone, can hit outside corner, inside corner, take it upstairs if he needs to. His secondary stuff…he has a swing-and-miss type split that drops off the table, his slider is a plus slider, and his changeup is equally as effective. He obviously has a four-pitch mix. He walked (16) guys in a 130-some odd innings and is in winter league right now and pitching with the same success.”

 

“We are very happy that we were able to acquire him. He was on a short-target list to get some way, some-shape-or-form. I did not anticipate it would take Sergio (Santos) to do it. I was thinking more along the lines of starting pitching, but the opportunity presented itself and fortunately for us it is an area where we have a lot of depth, whether it be Matt Thornton or (Jesse) Crain or (Addison) Reed, (Jhan) Marinez, the guy we got from the Marlins, Josh Stewart – added stuff, added velocity from when you move him to the pen, (Brian) Omogrosso, (Gregory) Infante. We have a lot of depth at that position so we felt we could afford to do this and take care of our future a little bit without sacrificing our present.”

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MLB Blogs:

The Blue Jays got a dynamic late-inning reliever in Sergio Santos, but the White Sox got a pretty good pitching prospect in return. Here’s some more information on right-hander Nestor Molina.

 

Like the big leaguer he was traded for, Molina is also a convert to pitching. The Venezuelan originally signed as a hitter, playing the outfield and third base in the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues in 2006-2007 before turning to pitching full-time in 2008.

 

He made his United States debut in 2009 and spent nearly all of his first two seasons in the country as a reliever. He pitched well in that role, with a 1.67 ERA in 2009 and 3.11 in his full-season debut across two levels in 2010.

 

The Blue Jays moved the 22-year-old into a starting role in 2011 and he took to it well, leading the system in ERA (2.21) and finishing third in strikeouts. He walked only 16 while striking out 148. He was a Florida State League All-Star and earned a late promotion to Double-A, where he was extremely effective over five Eastern League starts. The success he had earned him a spot on Toronto’s 40-man roster in November.

 

Molina features an intriguing four-pitch mix with an advanced feel for pitching. He’ll throw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and complements it with a slider and a changeup. His best pitch, though, might be his splitter, a true plus offering with a ton of deception. Some have said he might be better-suited to be a top-flight bullpen/setup guy, but his stuff and command say he’ll get more time to start.

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Fangraphs:

The return is exciting. Molina was given a B+ ranking from John Sickels, who rated him the second-best prospect in the Jays’ organization. In 130.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last year, Molina struck out 148 batters against a mere 16 walks. At 23 next year, he might only need a little more seasoning at Double-A before he can join the big leagues.

 

If he stays a starter, Molina will only need to be worth about as much as Paul Maholm has been worth over the last six years (13.2 WAR) in order to surpass Santos’ absolute value. Paul Maholm never had a minor league K/BB rate like Molina’s and was never a top-two prospect for the Pirates, but it’s still possible that Molina as a starter doesn’t achieve those heights.

 

And it is this uncertainty that shifts the needle back to equal. Molina may be a starter, or he may be a reliever. Scouts are divided on his stuff — is he a pitchability guy that has great control and decent stuff, or is he something more — and it’s even possible that a little recoil in his delivery might send him to the bullpen, in which case the value on this trade shifts towards Toronto.

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SB Nation 1

As long-time readers know, my prospect lists are based on a hybrid approach between sabermetrics and traditional scouting. On pure upside, I would rank the Jays top pitching group about like this: Syndergaard, Norris, Nicolino, Molina, Hutchison, McGuire. However, given the lack of full-season data for the top three pitchers, sabermetrically I would go Molina, McGuire, Hutchison, Nicolino, Syndergaard, Norris.

 

Another way to look at it:

 

Molina: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 3 points, SABEMETRICS: 6 points: TOTAL:9

Syndergaard: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 6 points, SABERMETRICS: 2 points: TOTAL:8

Nicolino: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 4 points, SABERMETRICS: 3 points: TOTAL; 7

Norris: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 5 points: SABERMETRICS: 1 point: TOTAL: 6

McGuire: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 1 point: SABERMETRICS: 5 points: TOTAL: 6

Hutchison: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 2 points, SABERMETRICS: 4 points: TOTAL 6

 

This oversimplifies things. I didn't actually make a list like that when thinking through the issue, but it illustrates how things turned out the way they did.

 

The thing here is that I think Molina's stuff is underrated and I have reports that are more enthusiastic than a lot of things you see publically available. I realize that putting Molina number one bucks consensus. The rumors that Molina may move to back to relief, if confirmed, might change the ranking by the time the book is ready to publish.

SB Nation 2

Molina was a subject of close discussion here at Minor League Ball last week. A Venezuelan signed by the Blue Jays in 2006, Molina was a fairly anonymous middle reliever with a decent arm entering 2011. He's a lot more than that now, thanks to an excellent season that saw him dominate the High-A Florida State and Double-A Eastern Leagues as a starter. He went 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA and an outstanding 115/14 K/BB ratio in 108 innings for Dunedin, then posted a miniscule 0.41 ERA in five starts for New Hampshire with a 33/2 K/BB in just 22 innings. Keep reading to see a scouting report.

 

Star-divide

 

Molina has a solid 90-94 MPH fastball and keeps it low in the zone, picking up grounders. He also has a very good splitter. His slider is still a work-in-progress according to scouts, but his delivery adds deception and helps his stuff play up. His statistics last year were simply spectacular, and it is unusual to see a relief-to-starting conversion turn out this positively. He wasn't some old guy tricking people; he was just 22 last year. If anything, Molina still doesn't get the respect he deserves as a prospect. I currently have him rated as a Grade B+ prospect.

 

This seems like a good deal for both sides to me. Many scouts think he should return to relief, but if I were the White Sox I would give him a chance to move forward as a starter given his performance in 2011.

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Kevin Gray covers the Fisher Cats for the New Hampshire Union Leader, and also blogs at Gray Matter Baseball, where this week he wondered aloud if Las Vegas pitching coach Tom Signore might return to Manchester to take the job vacated by Pete Walker, the Jays' new bullpen coach. Gray offered notes on a few Jays farmhands, including Drew Hutchison-- who is working out four days a week in Dunedin-- and, most interestingly, Nestor Molina.

 

Molina was one of four pitchers who, "could have pitched here in September" had there been room, according to Alex Anthopoulos a couple months ago, who also said that they "will all factor in next year."

 

Gray agrees, saying that Molina-- who, in 22 double-A innings, struck out 33, giving up just one earned run and two walks-- "looks to crack the Toronto rotation. He will. Full disclosure: love this kid. His stuff is electric. Great personality. Positive influence on everyone around him. And you know what else? He always says 'Thank you for the interview' after talking with him."

 

Pressed in the comments to clarify the timeline for Molina's promotion, Gray added that it "would not surprise me if he made the big-league team out of spring training. However, the more likely scenario is having Molina ease into the season at AA, then be promoted directly to Toronto at midseason."

 

Nice.

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Kevin Gray, who covers the Fisher Cats for the New Hampshire Union Leader, and is therefore rather well acquainted with a large number of the Jays' best prospects, posted his list of the top ten players in the Jays system, which included among several surprises, a big one at the top: converted infielder, RHP Nestor Molina.

 

You may recall that last week Gray sung Molina's praises on his blog, suggesting it was even possible that he could crack the Jays' rotation out of Spring Training. He's a believer-- one of the rare few who'd put the pitcher ahead of almost-unanimous top prospect, catcher Travis d'Arnaud. And he knows it-- and doesn't care what the scouting reports say.

 

"This is the only place you'll see Molina as Toronto's No. 1 prospect," Gray writes. "Sorry, folks, but I'm believing my own eyes and ignoring the grossly inaccurate scouting reports. The 22-year-old was Verlander-like in Double-A, dominating hitters to the tune of a 13.5 strikeouts/9 innings. Awesome stuff. Fastball (92-94-mph), devastating split, changeup. Pitching coach Pete Walker told me his stuff is 'as good as I've seen at this level.' Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus once tweeted, 'Not a ton of stuff, a finesse type without much upside.' Um, no."

 

Now, as we're reminded here hourly, lots of people can watch baseball all the time and still not have a f***ing clue what they're talking about, but Gray analyses like a scout, and the fact that he sees these guys every day, and that Walker is on board with the praise means a lot. Interesting...

 

And Molina's placement above d'Arnaud isn't the only surprise on the list, as Gray has Anthony Gose way down in tenth, because despite having "no shortage of star power," the centre fielder "got himself out way too much" in 2011.

 

Obviously that's the main knock on Gose, and evidently in Gray's mind, it's a massive one. He thinks similarly of Adeiny Hechavarria, who he'd trade while his stock is still high, but figures the ultra-efficient Drew Hutchison will be "throwing complete games in the Majors by 2013." Noah Syndergaard? More like Noah Synder-Bard, he says (not in so few words), though Aaron Sanchez relies on his curve too much, and "is going to tantalize the Blue Jays until he develops better command."

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Why He’s This High: Statistically, few pitchers dominated opponents to the extent Molina did in 2011. He was already one of the minors’ big breakout performers after putting together a 115/14 K/BB ratio in High-A, but he then truly burst into the prospect elite when he made five brilliant Double-A starts down the stretch, allowing just two runs (one earned) on twelve hits and two walks in 22 innings, striking out a whopping 33 batters.

 

Molina pitches like a Leo Mazzone devotee, throwing a ton of low-and-away fastballs and then finishing batters off with a splitter that comes in on the same plane. His fastball is in the 89-94 mph range and has good sink, the split is a plus pitch, and he also has an average slider. All three offerings play up due to his command of them and the deception in his delivery, which features a hip turn that helps hide the ball.

 

Why He’s This Low: One year ago, Molina was a mediocre relief pitcher in the Midwest League. As with all one-year wonders, he’ll have to prove he can do it again.

 

Molina’s raw stuff isn’t on par with a lot of the other top pitching prospects out there. His Double-A results showed that he was unfazed by the transition to the upper minors, which is a big point in his favor, and his stuff certainly isn’t bad, but he’ll need to maintain absolutely superb command to become a true ace. He’ll need to do a better job of working both sides of the plate, as more advanced hitters will be able to hit his down-and-away fastballs better than Double-A guys.

 

Molina’s delivery is repeatable, but it features some recoil and a very stiff landing that could lead to injuries. It’s a wonder he’s able to have such good command despite the landing. As a relatively small pitcher (6’1″ 180) who only has one year as a starter under his belt, durability is something to keep an eye on.

 

Conclusions: Molina is an impressively polished pitcher who was one of 2011′s biggest breakout stars. With average to above-average stuff and otherworldly command, he should at least be an innings-eater and could be a very good #2 starter. After all, the biggest problem for command pitchers like this is the home run ball, a problem which shouldn’t show up for Molina thanks to his approach. That makes Molina a similar pitcher to Doug Fister statistically, and pitchers like that are bigtime assets.

LInk
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  • 4 weeks later...
But Ventura said he was "very curious" in watching Molina, who was acquired from Toronto for Sergio Santos.

 

"Obviously, going through our drills, he looked great," Ventura said. "You see how athletic he is and you watch him go through his stuff and see how impressive he is. It's nice to see him on the mound. Just the way the ball comes out of his hand and how balanced he is, it's nice to see."

Ventura
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http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/artic...ws&c_id=cws

 

Glad he seems to be very confident, but there's just no way he's making this team out of Spring Training (in the bullpen) unless Humber's and Stewart's arms fall off...and even then they have Castro, Santiago, Axelrod and a couple of other options like Petricka or Rienzo.

Edited by caulfield12
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  • 2 months later...

Nestor Molina was assigned to be the "Ace" in double-A Birmingham, clearly the top prospect in their rotation. His April stats are pretty good, but would be "Very good" if it wasn't for the classic "one bad start".

 

3.56 ERA against him, 3-1 record, 0.91 GO/AO ratio, sparkling 23/3 K/BB ratio. 30.1 innings, 38 hits, 3 HR, batters currently hitting .306 against him.

 

One bad start where he gave up 9 hits, 5 ER, and 1 HR. If it weren't for that start, his ERA would be sitting at 2.45.

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A blurb on Molina from the locals:

 

> Nestor Molina -- Of all the Barons pitchers, the 23-year-old Molina is the most heralded. Chicago acquired him in a straight-up trade for closer Sergio Santos in the offseason after Molina went 12-3 with a 2.21 ERA combined in Single- A and Double-A last summer.

 

Molina has been in pro ball since 2006, but the Venezuelan spent his first two seasons as a corner infielder before Toronto converted him into a reliever in 2008.

 

With a fairly deep bullpen, the White Sox are comfortable with Molina getting more seasoning in Double-A. While most scouts project his future as a reliever, his number of pitches could keep him in the starting rotation.

 

He's been the anchor of Birmingham's rotation since opening day, getting the Game 1 assignment.

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  • 1 year later...
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