Sox Prospects: Stock Up/Down

[fathom]

With the Sox minor league games all but over, I was thinking of who improved their stock/hurt their stock this season. Thoughts?

 

Stock Up:

1- Frank Montas

2- Tyler Danish

3- Andy Wilkins

4- Tim Anderson

5- Chris Bassitt

6- Trey Michalczewski

7- Carlos Sanchez

8- Rangel Ravelo

9- Cleuluis Rondon

10- Adam Engel

 

Stock Neutral:

- Micah Johnson

- Courtney Hawkins

- Chris Beck

- Scott Snodgress

- Keon Barnum

- Marcus Semien

- Josh Phegley

 

Stock Down:

1- Erik Johnson

2- Matt Davidson

3- Trayce Thompson

3- Andre Rienzo

4- B. Ortiz/A. Mitchell

5- Jacob May

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I actually think Barnum, Hawkins and Beck all had positive seasons. Same with Saladino prior to the injury

[MnSoxFan]

Jacob May should be stock up as he showed some power and his SB ratio was real good. He had a horrific start and more than overcame that before he got hurt.

Edited September 4, 2014 by MnSoxFan

[bmags]

Stock is up for me on Hawkins. Player development is frustrating, but all you can ask is they improve. He did. He needs to keep improving so we don't have to say stuff like "he's only 24 in AAA" in his 3rd year there.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'd say Hawkins is significantly up, not neutral. Also Barnum, to me, is down somewhat. Good topic idea though. Here are a few ups and downs I'd call out (just a few of the big movers, not looking at all of them, and not getting into new draft picks/acquisitions or guys I wouldn't put in T30 before or after)...

 

STOCK UP:

Anderson

Hawkins

Montas

Sanchez

Ravelo

Michalczewski

Rondon

Smith

Wilkins

Saladino

Dysktra

Recchia

Guerrero

 

STOCK DOWN:

Davidson

Beck (though he went back up a bit recently for me)

May

Snodgress

Engel

Jaye

Mitchell

Barnum

 

Everyone else in what would be my T30 is somewhere near neutral.

[fathom]

I'd say Hawkins is significantly up, not neutral.

 

The biggest reason why I didn't put Hawkins in the Up category is because the home run total was disappointing to me. He did a great job improving his K rate (while walking a decent number of times), but I think he needs to be in the 30 home run range to regain his above average prospect status. He's likely never going to have a strong hit tool, so the power better carry him.

[NorthSideSox72]

The biggest reason why I didn't put Hawkins in the Up category is because the home run total was disappointing to me. He did a great job improving his K rate (while walking a decent number of times), but I think he needs to be in the 30 home run range to regain his above average prospect status. He's likely never going to have a strong hit tool, so the power better carry him.

To me, his stock is pretty damn up. That doesn't mean all is well - it is a relative thing, compared to say, March. His HR total was identical to last year, though in more plate appearances. He did that while dropping his K rate substantially to a reasonable level, and dramatically increasing his hitting and walk rate. That's a big turnaround, and I just can't see how his stock is anything but up. What you seem to be getting at is, is it up ENOUGH? Which is a different question.

 

Also, you do realize that 30 HR in A+ is a huge number for any player, let alone a 20 year old at that level. You know how many players hit 30 home runs in the CAR this year? Zero. The most was Joey Gallo, who hit 21 (then hit 21 more in the Texas League because he is not human). Guess who was second in the entire league? Hawkins.

 

By the way, one of my current fave fringe guys, Jason Coats, hit 15 - good for 4th in the CAR, and he didn't even get to finish the season there (went to AA).

 

[daggins]

I like that Hawkins numbers improved, but most of the in person scouting i've read this season tells me he still can't recognize breaking pitches. I have a feeling he is going to struggle badly next season.

 

Davidson is obviously way down, Barnum down, Trayce slightly down (only improved slightly repeating a level, still young)

 

Beck, Ravelo, Engel pretty much neutral

 

M. Johnson, Michalczewski, Danish up substantially

 

thats 10, but not the top ten.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The biggest reason why I didn't put Hawkins in the Up category is because the home run total was disappointing to me. He did a great job improving his K rate (while walking a decent number of times), but I think he needs to be in the 30 home run range to regain his above average prospect status. He's likely never going to have a strong hit tool, so the power better carry him.

 

You look into the power numbers too much. Power is usually the last thing to come for a prospect. You can't keep swinging for the fences if you keep striking out 40% of the time.

 

He's second in the league in HR despite being almost 3 fulls years younger than the average player in Carolina League. Like others mentioned, the fact that he cut down his K% by nearly 10% and improved his BB% by 3.5% is definitely encouraging. Overall, he didn't have a remarkable year, but his OPS did increase by .150, and that a step toward the right direction.

 

Stock up for me.

[Chicago White Sox]

I like that Hawkins numbers improved, but most of the in person scouting i've read this season tells me he still can't recognize breaking pitches. I have a feeling he is going to struggle badly next season.

 

Davidson is obviously way down, Barnum down, Trayce slightly down (only improved slightly repeating a level, still young)

 

Beck, Ravelo, Engel pretty much neutral

 

M. Johnson, Michalczewski, Danish up substantially

 

thats 10, but not the top ten.

Ravelo neutral? Showing a plus hit tool against AA pitching shouldn't be over-looked. I wish the power was there as much as anyone, but his season was a huge positive nonetheless.

[daggins]

Hitting for power is what he has to do though. He had a good season and he should be in the top 20 for the Sox but he didn't do enough to move the needle substantially

[Balta1701]

Hitting for power is what he has to do though. He had a good season and he should be in the top 20 for the Sox but he didn't do enough to move the needle substantially

No it's not. That's what he needs to do if he is going to be one of the best 1b in the game. If he's going to be a solid big league contributor, being at AA and being better with the bats than pitchers are with what their doing is a real big positive.

 

This isn't the MLB of 2003. A 1b who puts up an .800 OPS today is above average.

[daggins]

I'm not convinced he can hit that well. His numbers are slightly worse that Semien's in 2013 in AA, and Semien has struggled quite a bit this season.

 

 

 

 

 

[daggins]

For example, lets take an average-ish 1B. Say, Matt Adams of the STL Cardinals.

 

2 WAR, .292/.321/.460, .337 wOBA, very average starting-caliber 1B

 

His age 22 season he was also in AA, in the Texas league, which i've read slightly deflates offense.

 

His line that season? .300/.357/.556

[Vance Law]

Semien has struggled quite a bit this season.

 

Huh?

[Señor Ding-Dong]

Jacob May should be stock up as he showed some power and his SB ratio was real good. He had a horrific start and more than overcame that before he got hurt.

He hit two HRs this year compared to 8 last year. I don't know, I'd day he had a neutral year.

 

Same thing goes for Barnum. He got off to a terrible start (I remember I just about wrote him off at one point) but somehow managed to finish over .250. He didn't quite show as much power as I thought he would and IIRC he had a lot of errors at 1B.

 

So I'd say neutral for those two, but they did show great resiiliency by bouncing back from rought starts, so they deserve kudos for that.

Edited September 5, 2014 by Señor Ding-Dong

[Señor Ding-Dong]

Hawkins is firmly in the "stock up" category for me. He's still got a long way to go, but improving from .178 to .249 speaks for itself, especially considering he's still young for level. He cut down on his Ks and upped his walks. He showed the power potential he has too by finishing second in the league in HRs.

[MnSoxFan]

He hit two HRs this year compared to 8 last year. I don't know, I'd day he had a neutral year.

 

Same thing goes for Barnum. He got off to a terrible start (I remember I just about wrote him off at one point) but somehow managed to finish over .250. He didn't quite show as much power as I thought he would and IIRC he had a lot of errors at 1B.

 

So I'd say neutral for those two, but they did show great resiiliency by bouncing back from rought starts, so they deserve kudos for that.

 

Guess I was thinking more about how many doubles he was hitting vs last season. Maybe I should have used the term "gap" power. I can see why some do not take his year as being an improvement, but I thought it was. Oh well.

[ShandyMan]

I like that Hawkins numbers improved, but most of the in person scouting i've read this season tells me he still can't recognize breaking pitches. I have a feeling he is going to struggle badly next season.

 

Davidson is obviously way down, Barnum down, Trayce slightly down (only improved slightly repeating a level, still young)

 

Beck, Ravelo, Engel pretty much neutral

 

M. Johnson, Michalczewski, Danish up substantially

 

thats 10, but not the top ten.

 

Not trying to make this another Ravelo thread, but i'd say his was significantly up, as he doubled his prior HR totals and then some.

[LDF]

He hit two HRs this year compared to 8 last year. I don't know, I'd day he had a neutral year.

 

Same thing goes for Barnum. He got off to a terrible start (I remember I just about wrote him off at one point) but somehow managed to finish over .250. He didn't quite show as much power as I thought he would and IIRC he had a lot of errors at 1B.

 

So I'd say neutral for those two, but they did show great resiiliency by bouncing back from rought starts, so they deserve kudos for that.

 

yeah I saw that but the other stats supports that he was doing other things beside going for the

long ball such as, more walks, more total bases, more doubles more steals. all this tells me he was

trying to be the better hitter.

 

then again, I may be wrong.

[NorthSideSox72]

I like that Hawkins numbers improved, but most of the in person scouting i've read this season tells me he still can't recognize breaking pitches. I have a feeling he is going to struggle badly next season.

 

Davidson is obviously way down, Barnum down, Trayce slightly down (only improved slightly repeating a level, still young)

 

Beck, Ravelo, Engel pretty much neutral

 

M. Johnson, Michalczewski, Danish up substantially

 

thats 10, but not the top ten.

 

I'll disagree in part on the scouting reports. There is one BP guy who hates him, almost cartoonishly, to a point where I have to ignore his analysis on the guy. Among others I've seen, I saw reports of marked improvement, and some say they saw the same guy. I've also watched video and seen him in person. 100% no doubt he's made adjustments that made him better. Hell, you don't improve the numbers like he did without improving anything. He does still need work on pitch recognition, but I've seen him (and there is video of this) adjust to a breaking pitch and hit a HR off of it.

 

[LDF]

I'll disagree in part on the scouting reports. There is one BP guy who hates him, almost cartoonishly, to a point where I have to ignore his analysis on the guy. Among others I've seen, I saw reports of marked improvement, and some say they saw the same guy. I've also watched video and seen him in person. 100% no doubt he's made adjustments that made him better. Hell, you don't improve the numbers like he did without improving anything. He does still need work on pitch recognition, but I've seen him (and there is video of this) adjust to a breaking pitch and hit a HR off of it.

 

I totally agree. look at his number this yr and compare them to last yr. a HUGE improvement esp in the

strikeouts, while maintaining the same hr and better offensive numbers. but here is the key. ready,

he is only 20 yrs old. he still has room to continue to grow and to get better.

[NorthSideSox72]

I totally agree. look at his number this yr and compare them to last yr. a HUGE improvement esp in the

strikeouts, while maintaining the same hr and better offensive numbers. but here is the key. ready,

he is only 20 yrs old. he still has room to continue to grow and to get better.

The point made earlier that seeing what he's doing in person is important (and not necessarily info that can be taken from stats), but I can also say with 99.9999% certainty (let's call that the wite coeficient) that a player doesn't improve as much as he has while making no changes to their approach and skill set.

 

[LDF]

The point made earlier that seeing what he's doing in person is important (and not necessarily info that can be taken from stats), but I can also say with 99.9999% certainty (let's call that the wite coeficient) that a player doesn't improve as much as he has while making no changes to their approach and skill set.

 

again 100% correct, you can't improve with out making subtle improvement. a player will not

also improve with out having a better knowledge what he is looking for, ie cut back on the hr swing

and make more of a line drive hit. poor example but I think you know what I mean. lastly if the org

doesn't mind if the player is not out to swing for the fences but to work on the batting techniques.

you can not help to have some improvements. unless of course the player is a mental midget.

[fathom]

My prediction for White Sox players in the preseason top 100 rankings next year (taking out anyone called up to the majors this year):

 

- Rodon #8

- Anderson #45

- Danish #92

 

Top 10 overall:

 

1- Bryant

2- Buxton

3- Giolito

4- Russell

5- Correa

6- Lindor

7- Urias

8- Rodon

9- Glasnow

10- Gallo