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A Star* is Born


Jose Abreu
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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 16, 2017 -> 10:13 PM)
Delmonico's lack of defensive ability is obviously a concern but he looks very comfortable at the plate against MLB pitching. 11 game hitting streak, 13 game on base streak (every game of his career). Gotta love it.

LOL you started a new Delmonico thread ? I just posted in the old one which had dropped to the 2nd page. Frankly I thought this thread was about Moncada :P

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In the other Delmonico thread I said I could see these three as comps

 

Ben Broussard / Travis Shaw / Brandon Belt

 

having said that I think his transition across the diamond looks like this

 

LF/3B/1B/DH for the remainder of this season

 

LF/1B/DH for '18

 

1B/DH for '19 when the sox lock up Abreu again and move him to DH exclusively.

 

If the sox stumbled onto gold with Leury and Delmonico as being 2+ fWAR player it'll speed up the rebuild and take some pressure off the farm for needing to hit on everyone.

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The good: He has already posted a 0.8 oWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games. Thats more than a starter, thats all star level production.

 

The bad: There is almost a 0% chance he maintains said production. His BB% and K% are in normal bounds, but his BABIP and ISO are much higher than normal. On a more basic level, who thinks he can actually maintain hitting close to .400? The question is how far will the offensive profile regress because...

 

The ugly: He already has a -0.3 dWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games and in a position where we are trying to hide his defensive struggles. If we abandon the idea of trying to have him play 3B and let him concentrate on LF he should improve and hopefully become atleast a replacement level defensive player.

 

If he can improve his defense in LF, I really like his chances to hang around and be a contributor to atleast the beginning of our competitive period. Right now I'd say he probably had greater odds of sticking around than Davidson or Saladino.

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QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 07:21 AM)
The good: He has already posted a 0.8 oWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games. Thats more than a starter, thats all star level production.

 

The bad: There is almost a 0% chance he maintains said production. His BB% and K% are in normal bounds, but his BABIP and ISO are much higher than normal. On a more basic level, who thinks he can actually maintain hitting close to .400? The question is how far will the offensive profile regress because...

 

The ugly: He already has a -0.3 dWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games and in a position where we are trying to hide his defensive struggles. If we abandon the idea of trying to have him play 3B and let him concentrate on LF he should improve and hopefully become atleast a replacement level defensive player.

 

If he can improve his defense in LF, I really like his chances to hang around and be a contributor to atleast the beginning of our competitive period. Right now I'd say he probably had greater odds of sticking around than Davidson or Saladino.

 

To be fair, he's flashed mammoth power in the past (see AA last year in a pitchers park and spring training). I think ISO is the hardest to predict at the ML level (look at Leury, other guys that have gained some late).

 

He made dramatic contact skill increases this year and has been getting on base all year. If the power keeps playing up he's got the skills/swing to be productive.

 

Plus the difference in the ML vs minor league ball doesn't hurt (it is actually a different ball)...look at how many guys have had huge power breakouts in the majors.

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QUOTE (Username @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 08:34 AM)
To be fair, he's flashed mammoth power in the past (see AA last year in a pitchers park and spring training). I think ISO is the hardest to predict at the ML level (look at Leury, other guys that have gained some late).

 

He made dramatic contact skill increases this year and has been getting on base all year. If the power keeps playing up he's got the skills/swing to be productive.

 

Plus the difference in the ML vs minor league ball doesn't hurt (it is actually a different ball)...look at how many guys have had huge power breakouts in the majors.

 

I don't disagree, but there is going to be some regression if just because pitchers will eventually find a strategy against him. The big thing is how much he regresses and whether it can still make up for his bad defense. It will be interesting to watch him continue to develop.

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I'm not terribly concerned about his defense. For one, the team needs a DH for next season, and he could fit that position well, especially for an rebuilding team. The Sox have players that can be plugged into the positions he could play (OF/3B/1B?), and that would allow him to concentrate on being a DH. The other reason I'm not concerned is the Sox are rebuilding, and if they want to plug him into LF next season to let him work on his defense, so what?

 

I'm interested to see how he plays over a full season and 500+ ABs. If he could end up being a .270ish hitter while belting 20+ HRs, that would be great.

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I'm rather amazed by this. In the American league, there are only 2 teams that have gotten >.800 OPS out of their DH slot this year - the Indians and the Mariners. The average OPS for AL DHs is .742. The NL is actually getting more production out of the DH spot than the AL.

 

This is only somewhat relevant to Delmonico, but hey, he puts up an .825 OPS and they use him mostly at the DH spot, he'd be the 3rd best DH in the American League.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 08:42 AM)
I'm rather amazed by this. In the American league, there are only 2 teams that have gotten >.800 OPS out of their DH slot this year - the Indians and the Mariners. The average OPS for AL DHs is .742. The NL is actually getting more production out of the DH spot than the AL.

 

This is only somewhat relevant to Delmonico, but hey, he puts up an .825 OPS and they use him mostly at the DH spot, he'd be the 3rd best DH in the American League.

 

.825 would be pretty shocking. His MiLB OPS for his career is .773. He put up a .768 in his 100 games at Charlotte. He will go through some pretty serious regression here soon.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 08:52 AM)
FWIW power showing up more in ML than AAA has been happening pretty consistently last 2 years, but to answer the question, no I don't expect Delmonico to hit .400.

Yeah with the juiced ball power numbers actually go up in the majors.

 

And as for this thread of course Delmonico isn't going to maintain a 193 wRC+, no one is expecting that. But if he could be a 110-115 wRC+ hitter in the future I'd be happy, and it isn't a crazy reach.

Edited by OmarComing25
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 12:39 AM)
LOL you started a new Delmonico thread ? I just posted in the old one which had dropped to the 2nd page. Frankly I thought this thread was about Moncada :P

Got me too. Have to keep an eye on that Jose Abreu fella.

 

Delmonico looks great at the plate so far. Really like his bat speed and that swing looks awesome when he's sitting on a pitch, very sweet swing. Don't know what to expect from him so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

IMHO, the next Sox contender will probably need some help from a few current roster players, maybe Delmonico is one of them? We'll see.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 07:43 AM)
.825 would be pretty shocking. His MiLB OPS for his career is .773. He put up a .768 in his 100 games at Charlotte. He will go through some pretty serious regression here soon.

He has a ton of raw power though. For some reason, whenever I have seen him (albeit on limited ocassions), he always struck me as a guy that could hit and who would actually hit better at the major league level. Quick hands, very pretty swing and seems to unload on pitches in the zone (something you generally see more of at the major league level). No idea what it is, but he looked the part to me in spring training and continues to look the part offensively now. I could never figure out how he wasn't putting up better numbers in the minors. It could actually be that at AAA he generally sees a lot more "junk" and that is something he struggles with more then good ole power pitching you'll see relatively often at the major league level (with guys around the zone more, etc). Could all be a bunch of horse s*** too though...haha.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 09:43 AM)
Got me too. Have to keep an eye on that Jose Abreu fella.

 

Delmonico looks great at the plate so far. Really like his bat speed and that swing looks awesome when he's sitting on a pitch, very sweet swing. Don't know what to expect from him so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

IMHO, the next Sox contender will probably need some help from a few current roster players, maybe Delmonico is one of them? We'll see.

A guy like Delmonico becoming a good "DH" to me speeds up the window we can contend. Similarly, Avi actually being good, also speeds up the window. That gives you two solid complimentary position players, before bringing on guys who you are hoping to be "stars". We need that...depth matters. You hope Davidson / Leury others maybe emerge too (even if you get guys who show more as being platoon/bench guys..that can help). Of course we also need to hit on some of the top guys as well.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 09:43 AM)
.825 would be pretty shocking. His MiLB OPS for his career is .773. He put up a .768 in his 100 games at Charlotte. He will go through some pretty serious regression here soon.

If that's who he is, then he would be best suited for a career as a pinch hitter in the NL.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 12:37 PM)
A guy like Delmonico becoming a good "DH" to me speeds up the window we can contend. Similarly, Avi actually being good, also speeds up the window. That gives you two solid complimentary position players, before bringing on guys who you are hoping to be "stars". We need that...depth matters. You hope Davidson / Leury others maybe emerge too (even if you get guys who show more as being platoon/bench guys..that can help). Of course we also need to hit on some of the top guys as well.

Agree with ya 1000%. We know that not all of the prospects will become major leagues and we know the Sox can't live on the FA market so they will need some current players to become solid contributors. Every current player that sticks is one less player in the future that will have to be traded for or bought on the FA market.

 

On a side note. It's great to see smiling faces and guys having fun in the dugout. Abreu has been cracking me up with his taking out the trash bit. Despite the losing, these kids are having fun.

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I know part of it is a fluky first half but I don't think any of us have grappled with just how crazy it was that Avi Garcia became an all star.

 

If Nicky keeps this run (not .400, but you know what I mean, being a good power hitter) through the end of year, great for us.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 04:30 PM)
I know part of it is a fluky first half but I don't think any of us have grappled with just how crazy it was that Avi Garcia became an all star.

 

If Nicky keeps this run (not .400, but you know what I mean, being a good power hitter) through the end of year, great for us.

 

And more than anything Avi's road to success should serve as a warning sign for the rebuild. Not all of these guys will succeed, and those who do might take years to do so. Patience is a virtue.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 18, 2017 -> 08:59 PM)
2 2 HR games in the last 3 , 3 of which left the yard.

The game prior to these 3 - the first game against the Dodgers he was out of the lineup. That night he gave my three year old son his first Major League Baseball.

 

I attribute his home runs to that act of good will.

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