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Dexter Fowler


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Haven't heard any rumors on Fowler, other than the Giants had been kicking tires. Offensively, he's put up 5 consecutive years of OPS+ in excess of 100, including a high of 120 2 years ago in the AL (albeit in an offensive park for the Astros). Defensively the metrics aren't positive on him, but he's roughly a 2 WAR player, whose lowest OBP in a full season was the .346 he put up last year. He's still on the right side of 30 (albeit not for long) and can steal bases. His strikeout numbers jumped significantly this past year, not sure why, but that is about the only real regression that I saw out of Fowler (but he also doubled his HR production).

 

For those concerned how he'd deal with the smaller outfield with the Sox, I'd argue Wrigley has just as small of an outfield (vs. say Houston / Colorado where he played most of his career) and the numbers he posted would be significant upgrades over our other options.

 

What sort of money / years is he looking at? I'd think at the right price (as kind of a forgotten guy on the market), he could actually be a solid value signing.

 

Note: My opinion on this has changed. I didn't realize / forgot he had the QO attached to him and thus we'd lose our comp pick.

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He's one I'm interested in, in terms of market. Will those that tried to go big reward him big as plan c? Or will the market be dried up, and he ends up signing at a reasonable melky cabrera range.

 

Not sure I'd want this. Would plug us up with a player we'd still look to upgrade on.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 12:24 PM)
They won't give up a top 30 pick for Fowler. At least I hope they don't.

I dont think many teams are going to be lining up for Fowler to lose a pick. I could almost see him getting the Morales/Lohse treatment and not signing until very late, or even not at all until the draft has passed. Doubtful, but possible.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 12:51 PM)
When do QO expire? I seem to remember Ervin Santana's QO expiring before he signed. Could be wrong on that, but I do remember that they expire at some point.

 

Wonder if teams might let guys like Fowler and Kendrick wait it out.

 

Day after the draft.

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A #30 pick isn't worth infinity dollars. At some price and after some combination of moves, Fowler makes sense, but the Sox still need more big improvements across the team. If the only problem was that Avi sucks and everything else was good, then yeah, grab Fowler stick him at a corner outfield spot and that's a nice improvement. But they need bigger improvements overall which is why signing Upton or Cespedes seems a more direct route.

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 05:21 PM)
A #30 pick isn't worth infinity dollars. At some price and after some combination of moves, Fowler makes sense, but the Sox still need more big improvements across the team. If the only problem was that Avi sucks and everything else was good, then yeah, grab Fowler stick him at a corner outfield spot and that's a nice improvement. But they need bigger improvements overall which is why signing Upton or Cespedes seems a more direct route.

 

Tend to agree; I don't think they should be making any moves that sacrifice draft picks. Mortgaging future draft picks is not a way to sustaining success.

 

The White Sox could improve by adding a Fowler, but they really need impact bats in the middle of the lineup. They have Abreu, and Melky Cabrera (who will be in that #2-#6 spots, but there are 2 or 3 spots that must be improved drastically in the run producing spots of that order. These players are not on the team right now.

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Eaton's bat is fine.

 

His defense should be better in LF.

 

The main question is how well Thompson holds up and whether the insurance policy of a Parra, Austin Jackson or Snider would be worth the opportunity cost compared to signing Desmond for SS or another veteran starter because of lingering uncertainty about Erik Johnson within the org.

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QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 04:02 PM)
Mortgaging future draft picks is not a way to sustaining success.

 

This is way too broad a statement. Particularly in a season (perhaps the only season in the coming years) in which the first round pick is protected. Losing a #30 draft pick to sign Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes for 5 or 6 or more seasons is certainly justified and a good idea. Whoever is drafted at that spot or later is guaranteed to be a much worse player than either of those guys.

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This is way too broad a statement. Particularly in a season (perhaps the only season in the coming years) in which the first round pick is protected. Losing a #30 draft pick to sign Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes for 5 or 6 or more seasons is certainly justified and a good idea. Whoever is drafted at that spot or later is guaranteed to be a much worse player than either of those guys.

Not true and I can prove it.

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Dec 12, 2015 -> 03:40 PM)
No loss of draft pick with Cespedes. I would love to sign him and give him an opt out after 1-2 years, then get a draft pick if he leaves. Who knows, he might love it in Chicago.

I like this idea and I've been somewhat against paying big money to this year's free agents but seeing the cost of prospects in trades, Cespedes makes a ton of sense. Initially I was very much against the idea of signing Cespedes but I'm pretty much all for it now.

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