Jonah Keri's Annual Trade Value Rankings

[LittleHurt05]

Part 1

 

Part 2

 

Chris Sale #15

 

Jose Quintana - #28

 

I’ve been ranking Quintana too low for the past several years, and the MLB execs I spoke to for this piece couldn’t take it anymore.

 

“Quintana is too low. Four years at his rate of pay for a now-impact starting pitcher,” opined one. Said another sharp baseball mind: “I agree, Quintana is too low. It all boils down to the risk aspect, but he’s a consistent, proven No. 2 type locked in on a cheap deal. I know we’re all about hitters and upside, but [it] probably can’t hurt to push him ahead of some of the babies?”

 

I left a few of those babies (several supremely talented position players with less than one year of major league service time) ahead of Quintana anyway. But you’re looking at arguably the most consistent pitcher in baseball: He has logged 200, 200 1/3, 206 1/3 and 208 innings in the past four seasons, with ERAs of 3.51, 3.32, 3.36 and 3.20 (and similarly steady and excellent fielding-independent numbers). Assuming his employer picks up the 2019 and ‘20 options on his deal, Quintana is owed a scant $35.4 million over the next four seasons. Think about the big money that teams like the Cubs were able to spend in free agency as a result of having all that young, highly affordable talent on the roster, and you get a glimpse into what Quintana would offer any team that pries him away from the rebuilding Sox.

 

Yoan Moncada - #31

 

Moncada has earned the phenom label from the moment scouts first set eyes on him. Ranked the No. 2 prospect in the game by Baseball America this year, the 21-year-old's smooth and powerful lefthanded swing has engendered frequent comparisons to seven-time All-Star Robinson Cano. We also have a real-life gauge of his trade value, following the blockbuster deal that sent him, flame-throwing righthander Michael Kopech and two other prospects to Chicago for Chris Sale. But not everyone is sold. One AL exec expressed consternation when I turned in a first draft of these rankings that had Moncada slotted significantly higher.

 

“Moncada is very high and a very risky prospect. He swings and misses A LOT. He doesn’t really have a position yet (although he’ll be fine at second and probably better than fine in centerfield), and his makeup is … in question among the scouting/front office circles. He does have star potential if it all clicks. But given the choice of Christian Yelich (controllable through 2022 and definitely awesome) and Moncada, I would take Yelich 100 out of 100 times. For me, Moncada fits with Buxton more than with the group you have him with now.”

 

Duly noted. The broader point about teams favoring proven players who are still young and offer lots of affordable and controllable service over top prospects who might get to that point also resonates. Players like Yelich thus get bumped higher on this list, while Moncada and a few others slip a few spots. If we really are looking at the second coming of Cano, though, Moncada might crack the top 20 next year.

 

Adam Eaton - #34

 

 

 

Dropped out of top 50 from last year:

 

Carlos Rodon (42 last year)

 

The talent is jarring, and his slider’s already one of the best in the league. He’s a slight command improvement away from becoming an All-Star.

 

Lucas Giolito (41 last year)

 

Arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball entering the 2016 season, Giolito struggled to find the plate in both Double A and his 21 1/3-inning MLB cameo. Scouts grade both his fastball and hammer curve as potential 70 pitches on the 20–80 scouting scale, so the potential for stardom is still very much in play.

 

Jose Abreu (24 last year)

 

Here are Abreu’s wRC+ figures and his American League wRC+ rank, by year:

 

2014: 167 (2nd)

2015: 129 (14th)

2016: 118 (28th)