First Inning Killing Sox

[cabiness42]

Sox pitchers have a 7.71 first inning ERA, with a 3.86 ERA the rest of the game.

 

Hitters are just plain bad all game long, but do score 22% less in the first inning compared to the rest of the game.

 

Run differential is -25 in the first inning and -22 the entire rest of the game.

[Eminor3rd]

Team sucks

[3GamesToLove]

Is this actually statistically relevant data, though? So they're bad in the first inning. Does that tell us anything about the team or what they can do better?

[caulfield12]

What's the statistical probability of winning when you score first?

 

Around 65-70%?

 

60%?

[Dick Allen]

Is this actually statistically relevant data, though? So they're bad in the first inning. Does that tell us anything about the team or what they can do better?

It does suggest maybe a change in routine, at least for the pitchers, should be in order. I would expect 1st inning ERA, and 1st inning offensive production to be affected by the fact teams' supposed best hitters are hitting. The spread is just too wide for the pitchers, and the hitter, the top of the line up needs to produce more runs, and getting out to a lead might actually help win more games.

[LDF]

a change in the routine for the hitters is needed. this left right advance metric is not working. beside Jose A, no one as any decent avg.

 

need to go back to old time school. use players that are somewhat hitting, load up the top of the order with those hitter, and lets them get some runners on base. fvvck the adv metric kind o hitting. move down those players who are not performing, until they start to perform.

 

bottom line be a little more creative in the lineup and and batting order.

[3GamesToLove]

a change in the routine for the hitters is needed. this left right advance metric is not working. beside Jose A, no one as any decent avg.

 

need to go back to old time school. use players that are somewhat hitting, load up the top of the order with those hitter, and lets them get some runners on base. fvvck the adv metric kind o hitting. move down those players who are not performing, until they start to perform.

 

bottom line be a little more creative in the lineup and and batting order.

 

What you are talking about is not "the advance metric kind of hitting."

[ChiSox_Sonix]

The lack of ability to score runs is what's killing the Sox

[LDF]

What you are talking about is not "the advance metric kind of hitting."

 

it has appears to me, i who know crap about the adv metric, that people use that as a bible to manage. maybe in the fans point of view. what ever happen to the old coach with your gut instinct, make the lineup based on who is hitting? making up the lineup based on the hot bat.

 

the old cliche is a coach should be able to find ways to make the team perform. that is why you see teams moving a coach.

[southsider2k5]

I'd really love to know what is going on this year with first inning pitching. We have some damned good pitchers who are just awful this year to start games, and I don't remember this being an issue in years past. I wouldn't think it would be warm up routine, because why would that have changed? Would the bullpen mound have changed? Grasping at straws here.

[Dick Allen]

I'd really love to know what is going on this year with first inning pitching. We have some damned good pitchers who are just awful this year to start games, and I don't remember this being an issue in years past. I wouldn't think it would be warm up routine, because why would that have changed? Would the bullpen mound have changed? Grasping at straws here.

I have always been fascinated with the warm up routine ever since the night of Peavy's injury. We noted that night, he threw no more than 10 total pitches warming up. Something was wrong. This year, the one difference I see is with Samardzija. He is done warming up a lot sooner than the rest, and sits in the dugout a good 10 minutes, if not longer, than the other pitchers before he hits the mound. Of course, Sale had one of those on Saturday with the Paulie ceremony, but he was pretty good in the first inning.

[Dick Allen]

it has appears to me, i who know crap about the adv metric, that people use that as a bible to manage. maybe in the fans point of view. what ever happen to the old coach with your gut instinct, make the lineup based on who is hitting? making up the lineup based on the hot bat.

 

the old cliche is a coach should be able to find ways to make the team perform. that is why you see teams moving a coach.

The problem with using your "gut" is when it doesn't work out, you are deemed a fool. When it works out it is forgotten quickly. Everyone can blame the manager all they want, the problem is, firing him doesn't solve the issues. Joe Maddon had a team that was supposed to be good last year. They weren't .500. This year, he's gone and somehow they are in first place, albeit barely in a bad division. Trotting out a big name to make out your line up card with a crappy team is putting lipstick on a pig. The exact same things will probably happen, but the manager won't be blamed. Ozzie was never blamed for poor White Sox offense when he managed.

[LDF]

The problem with using your "gut" is when it doesn't work out, you are deemed a fool. When it works out it is forgotten quickly. Everyone can blame the manager all they want, the problem is, firing him doesn't solve the issues. Joe Maddon had a team that was supposed to be good last year. They weren't .500. This year, he's gone and somehow they are in first place, albeit barely in a bad division. Trotting out a big name to make out your line up card with a crappy team is putting lipstick on a pig. The exact same things will probably happen, but the manager won't be blamed. Ozzie was never blamed for poor White Sox offense when he managed.

 

you have excellent points and makes a good argument.

 

re the gut, i see coaching per adv metric kind of coaching. i don't see the lineup based on the hot bat. use the hot bat and yes the gut instinct to fill out your top 4 or 5 hitters in the lineup. be aggressive in the coaching aspect.

 

Maddon is not the end of all things in coaching. but, and this is coming from a huge RV supporter, maybe RV is not the kind of manager that can get the team going.

 

isn't that one of the reasons why teams fires their managers, esp early on in the season??

[Dick Allen]

you have excellent points and makes a good argument.

 

re the gut, i see coaching per adv metric kind of coaching. i don't see the lineup based on the hot bat. use the hot bat and yes the gut instinct to fill out your top 4 or 5 hitters in the lineup. be aggressive in the coaching aspect.

 

Maddon is not the end of all things in coaching. but, and this is coming from a huge RV supporter, maybe RV is not the kind of manager that can get the team going.

 

isn't that one of the reasons why teams fires their managers, esp early on in the season??

I just think there is a huge distortion in how people view the manager and coaches effects on players. These are major leaguers, they are supposed to know how to play by the time they arrive. They aren't a bunch of 7 year olds needing constant instruction.

 

They fire managers, but if you really look at it, the team doesn't significantly improve, or will eventually start playing like they were supposed to, so it looks like the right decision because many think it would never happen under the old manager. The Dodgers were supposedly ready to fire Mattingly a couple of years ago, but didn't and they got tremendously hot. If they would have fired him and the same thing happened, he would have been the fool. You have to expect White Sox hitters to eventually start hitting normally, and they will win more games. It hasn't been their style to make a coach or manager a sacrificial lamb, but maybe this year they do. If the players then start playing to their averages, the move looks good, although it probably happens without the change.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

I just think there is a huge distortion in how people view the manager and coaches effects on players. These are major leaguers, they are supposed to know how to play by the time they arrive. They aren't a bunch of 7 year olds needing constant instruction.

 

They fire managers, but if you really look at it, the team doesn't significantly improve, or will eventually start playing like they were supposed to, so it looks like the right decision because many think it would never happen under the old manager. The Dodgers were supposedly ready to fire Mattingly a couple of years ago, but didn't and they got tremendously hot. If they would have fired him and the same thing happened, he would have been the fool. You have to expect White Sox hitters to eventually start hitting normally, and they will win more games. It hasn't been their style to make a coach or manager a sacrificial lamb, but maybe this year they do. If the players then start playing to their averages, the move looks good, although it probably happens without the change.

 

again, you have a point, i may not agree or totally agree with it, but that is on me.

 

sometimes managers get fired, to jump start the team, or sometimes b/c the team is not responding to him.

 

something needs to jump start this team.

 

name the remedy to get this team going.

 

[fathom]

It sure seems like the Sox have hit relief pitchers better than starting pitchers this year.

[fathom]

I'd really love to know what is going on this year with first inning pitching. We have some damned good pitchers who are just awful this year to start games, and I don't remember this being an issue in years past. I wouldn't think it would be warm up routine, because why would that have changed? Would the bullpen mound have changed? Grasping at straws here.

 

Samardzija's a bit like Verlander where he gains significant velocity as the game goes on. A few times this year, he got burned on 91-92 mph fastballs in the first inning.

[cabiness42]

Is this actually statistically relevant data, though? So they're bad in the first inning. Does that tell us anything about the team or what they can do better?

 

It appears as though the pitchers aren't ready to pitch in the first inning. Someone with more time could delve into the advanced metrics of pitch selection, velocity and location of pitches in the first inning compared to later innings, but it could just be a mental thing.

[caulfield12]

Then how can we explain the White Sox in 2012 or the Twins so far in 2015?

 

Or the Indians the first year Francona managed them?

 

All anomalies/statistical aberrations?

[elrockinMT]

I'd really love to know what is going on this year with first inning pitching. We have some damned good pitchers who are just awful this year to start games, and I don't remember this being an issue in years past. I wouldn't think it would be warm up routine, because why would that have changed? Would the bullpen mound have changed? Grasping at straws here.

 

 

This is the great unknown and the question that needs to be answered. You would think a pitchers pre-game routine is to get him ready to start out the game effectively so what are we missing?

[southsider2k5]

Samardzija's a bit like Verlander where he gains significant velocity as the game goes on. A few times this year, he got burned on 91-92 mph fastballs in the first inning.

 

If it were just Samardjiza, that would be different. But it isn't.

 

Take Chris Sale. Coming into this year his first inning over his career was 85IP 27 ER good for 2.86 ERA. Even including this year his career numbers are a .587 OPS against, good for 89 OPS+. This year 8 IP 6 ER 6.75 ERA against, along with an .845 OPS against for a 121 OPS+.

 

Quintana 1st innings in 2015, 9 IP, 8 ER, 8.00 ERA, .988 OPS against good for 157 OPS+ Before this year 4.37 ERA in 87 career IP in the first inning.

 

So what has changed?

[Quin]

If it were just Samardjiza, that would be different. But it isn't.

 

Take Chris Sale. Coming into this year his first inning over his career was 85IP 27 ER good for 2.86 ERA. Even including this year his career numbers are a .587 OPS against, good for 89 OPS+. This year 8 IP 6 ER 6.75 ERA against, along with an .845 OPS against for a 121 OPS+.

 

Quintana 1st innings in 2015, 9 IP, 8 ER, 8.00 ERA, .988 OPS against good for 157 OPS+ Before this year 4.37 ERA in 87 career IP in the first inning.

 

So what has changed?

 

LaRoche being no better than Dunn and Melky's lack of power

[bmags]

Is there a search we can do to see how our hitters perform specifically against other teams starters? I have to imagine we are last in league there. So many games through 5 IP without runs.

[caulfield12]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--t...433447-mlb.html

 

Wonder if we'll be able to draw any conclusions from the new "spin rate" data on our pitchers...

 

 

Top-end exit velocity, like spin, isn’t always a proxy for the best players. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera appear on one top 10 list. Pedro Alvarez, Melky Cabrera, Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson appear on two apiece. And while none of them is a slouch – particularly Pederson – they’re not among the best players in baseball, either.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[LDF]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--t...433447-mlb.html

 

Wonder if we'll be able to draw any conclusions from the new "spin rate" data on our pitchers...

 

 

Top-end exit velocity, like spin, isn’t always a proxy for the best players. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera appear on one top 10 list. Pedro Alvarez, Melky Cabrera, Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson appear on two apiece. And while none of them is a slouch – particularly Pederson – they’re not among the best players in baseball, either.

 

i wonder if something like this data is available for the upcoming FA pitchers next yr?

 

btw.... nice find

Edited May 27, 2015 by LDF