In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT

[caulfield12]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/5791926/

 

in the 2000's, they worked out 9 of 34 times (and two of them were by the Rockies/O'Dowd, who curiously speaks out against them in the article) in terms of the new manager leading the team to the playoffs

 

2010 7 changes (Baltimore twice), KC, Orioles, DBacks, Mariners all finish last, Cubs 5th, Marlins 3rd (0/7)

2011 4 changes....Ozzie for Cooper at end of season (3rd place), A's and Nats 3rd, Marlins 5th (0/4)

2012 2 changes......Astros last, Indians next to last (Alomar, Jr., at very end of the season) (0/2)

2013 1 change.....Sandberg for Manuel, 4th place (0/1)

2014 3 changes....Astros/Rangers 4th, DBacks last (0/3)

2015 2 changes....Counsell for Roenicke, Dan Jennings for Mike Redmond

 

2010-2015 (0/17 in terms of a managerial change leading to the playoffs, although it should be noted Kirk Gibson came in at the end of 2010 and quickly led Arizona to the playoffs the following season)

 

Basically, the odds are 20% (in terms of a change leading to the playoffs) in the last 15 years. Do the White Sox under Ventura have the same odds if he continues as manager?

 

 

 

 

Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre, a part of the Marlins' turnaround in 2003, said it's not always true that players on underachieving teams want the manager pushed out the door. "But maybe it's a different personality or a different voice," Pierre said. "I'm not a parent, but I know some parents can tell their child to do something over and over again. Then maybe they have an aunt or an uncle or a neighbor tell the child the same thing, and the child listens. "It applies to kids, and sometimes it applies to professional athletes."

 

In Houston in '04, the situation called for urgency. "Garner came in with the attitude, 'I've only got three months. I don't care if I hurt feelings, you'll do it my way,'" Ausmus said.

 

.....

 

In 2009, O'Dowd said he made the move because he felt Tracy could quickly implement his priorities (despite Hurdle's leading the team to the 2007 World Series, just two years prior).

What makes such a move work? New strategies? A different voice? Shock value? All of the aforementioned changes figured in those successful changes. With the Rockies, all have applied to the turnaround.

 

"I can't speak for any other sport, but in the history of the game it doesn't work," O'Dowd said. "A lot of times when you make a change, you've got deep-seeded (seated) problems that don't go away overnight. And usually your personnel is not very good either. History shows making a change is not an elixir."

 

"They only work when you have a specific plan in mind of why you're making the change," O'Dowd said. "If you make a change for change sake, you have absolutely no chance for it working."

 

 

 

Top 10 midseason improvements since 1900 after a managerial change (not including changes in the first or last 20 games of the season):

 

#1: 1989 Blue Jays

12-24 (.333) under Jimy Williams

77-49 (.626) under Cito Gaston

Midseason improvement: +.293

#2: 1940 Cardinals

15-29 (.341) under Ray Blades and Mike Gonzalez

69-40 (.633) under Billy Southworth

Midseason improvement: +.292

#3: 1912 Indians

54-71 (.470) under Harry Davis

21-7 (.750) under Joe Birmingham

Midseason improvement: +.280

#4: 1999 Angels

51-82 (.383) under Terry Collins

19-10 (.655) under Joe Maddon

Midseason improvement: +.272

#5: 2009 Rockies

18-28 (.391) under Clint Hurdle

74-42 (.638) under Jim Tracy

Midseason improvement: +.247

#6: 1988 Padres

16-30 (.348) under Larry Bowa

67-48 (.583) under Jack McKeon

Midseason improvement: +.235

#7: 1925 Cardinals

13-25 (.342) under Branch Rickey

64-51 (.556) under Rogers Hornsby

Midseason improvement: +.214

#8: 1980 Twins

54-71 (.432) under Gene Mauch

23-13 (.639) under Johnny Goryl

Midseason improvement: +.207

#9: 2002 Rockies

6-16 (.2727) under Buddy Bell

67-73 (.4786) under Clint Hurdle

Midseason improvement: +.2059

#10: 1969 Angels

11-28 (.2821) under Bill Rigney

60-63 (.4878) under Lefty Phillips

Midseason improvement: +.2057

 

source, baseball-reference.com

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[Buehrle>Wood]

It's not really a risk when your manager has already been proven himself to be awful.

[caulfield12]

At this point, there's almost nothing to lose.

 

We're trailing every single team in the AL, other than the A's.

 

If it doesn't work, we have the luxury of finding another manager in the off-season and "rebooting" again.

 

Surely, Hahn has a "big board" of potential managers in mind as well.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[Y2Jimmy0]

Why is this a thread today? How did Ventura lose last night's game? I don't think the White Sox have a dumb fan base but people looking at this site lately would think otherwise.

[caulfield12]

Why is this a thread today? How did Ventura lose last night's game? I don't think the White Sox have a dumb fan base but people looking at this site lately would think otherwise.

 

 

This has nothing to do with last night, specifically.

 

It's an accumulation of EVERYTHING since September, 2012.

 

To suggest we're a "smart fanbase" is to imagine that there's any type of precedent in Sox history for passing 8-10 teams in the 2nd half of a season when there simply isn't...or that we can ignore 4 teams in our own division being in a better position for the playoffs.

 

Sure, we can feed the "light and hope" wolf all we want, have our pie in the sky "comeback" rationalizations, but it's going to take a different manager to get it done.

 

It's that simple.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Ventura is not getting fired. This thread is a waste of bandwidth.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Ventura is not getting fired. This thread is a waste of bandwidth.

 

 

Completely agree.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Why is this a thread today? How did Ventura lose last night's game? I don't think the White Sox have a dumb fan base but people looking at this site lately would think otherwise.

Basic fundamental plays doomed us yet again last night. Please the blame on who you see fit.

[caulfield12]

Then having any sort of opinion about the White Sox while Ventura is still the manager is a waste of bandwidth as well.

 

Sometimes it seems the Sox want to cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

So be it.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Basic fundamental plays doomed us yet again last night. Please the blame on who you see fit.

 

 

They are major leaguers. Basic fundamental mistakes are the fault of major leaguers.

[Buehrle>Wood]

They are major leaguers. Basic fundamental mistakes are the fault of major leaguers.

Well then, it won't hurt the franchise canning Ventura.

[Dick Allen]

Basic fundamental plays doomed us yet again last night. Please the blame on who you see fit.

Which ones doomed the White Sox? They gave up 10 runs. They all were earned. There was an error but that meant nothing. If Carlos Sanchez bobbles a ball or Jose Abreu drops a pop up, as much as you think it is Robin's fault, they still would do the same thing if someone else was sitting in the dugout. We might as well start a thread about acquiring Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The chances are just as good that happens. This thread was created to hopefully generate more Robin bashing. Last night was not on the manager.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Well then, it won't hurt the franchise canning Ventura.

 

 

I never said it would. I'm not opposed to firing Ventura. I just don't think anything would be different.

[caulfield12]

Which ones doomed the White Sox? They gave up 10 runs. They all were earned. There was an error but that meant nothing. If Carlos Sanchez bobbles a ball or Jose Abreu drops a pop up, as much as you think it is Robin's fault, they still would do the same thing if someone else was sitting in the dugout. We might as well start a thread about acquiring Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The chances are just as good that happens. This thread was created to hopefully generate more Robin bashing. Last night was not on the manager.

 

 

 

"I can't speak for any other sport, but in the history of the game it doesn't work," O'Dowd said. "A lot of times when you make a change, you've got deep-seeded (seated) problems that don't go away overnight. And usually your personnel is not very good either. History shows making a change is not an elixir."

 

"They only work when you have a specific plan in mind of why you're making the change," O'Dowd said. "If you make a change for change sake, you have absolutely no chance for it working."

 

.......

 

 

2010-2015 (0/17 in terms of a managerial change leading to the playoffs, although it should be noted Kirk Gibson came in at the end of 2010 and quickly led Arizona to the playoffs the following season)

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Well then, it won't hurt the franchise canning Ventura.

 

the owner's rep of not firing their cronies comes to mind.

 

but this discussion, who is a good candidate to replace him in the interim.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Which ones doomed the White Sox? They gave up 10 runs. They all were earned. There was an error but that meant nothing. If Carlos Sanchez bobbles a ball or Jose Abreu drops a pop up, as much as you think it is Robin's fault, they still would do the same thing if someone else was sitting in the dugout. We might as well start a thread about acquiring Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The chances are just as good that happens. This thread was created to hopefully generate more Robin bashing. Last night was not on the manager.

You had Abreu bobble a ball, Sanchez bobble a ball, no one tell Sanchez about a man running home, and Shuck completely misplay a ball In the outfield. And I only was able to watch about a third of the game. That's a lot of mistakes. And it's not like it's some one off game. Similar mistakes have been made all year, almost every game. Maybe firing Ventura won't change anything, but it's certainly worth it to see at this point. It can't possibly hurt anything. The other solution is replacing 4-5 players which, I don't even have to say this, is essentially impossible midseason.

[Dick Allen]

You had Abreu bobble a ball, Sanchez bobble a ball, no one tell Sanchez about a man running home, and Shuck completely misplay a ball In the outfield. And I only was able to watch about a third of the game. That's a lot of mistakes. And it's not like it's some one off game. Similar mistakes have been made all year, almost every game. Maybe firing Ventura won't change anything, but it's certainly worth it to see at this point. It can't possibly hurt anything. The other solution is replacing 4-5 players which, I don't even have to say this, is essentially impossible midseason.

The no one tell Sanchez a guy was running home was quickly edited by Stone once he saw the replay. For some reason Carlos didn't throw the ball. Why a rookie who has been up this year for about a week didn't throw the ball, I will never know, but how that could be because.....Robin Ventura, that is just plain ridiculous. Firing Robin does not fix the problems.

[LDF]

Which ones doomed the White Sox? They gave up 10 runs. They all were earned. There was an error but that meant nothing. If Carlos Sanchez bobbles a ball or Jose Abreu drops a pop up, as much as you think it is Robin's fault, they still would do the same thing if someone else was sitting in the dugout. We might as well start a thread about acquiring Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The chances are just as good that happens. This thread was created to hopefully generate more Robin bashing. Last night was not on the manager.

 

last nite game, 5-26, was a first time i truly saw this team score like i thought they could.

 

but lets go further, Roberson loosing a lead??? how many times is that going to happen. when it rains it pours.

 

can't get a freaking break. somebody must have really pissed of the baseball gods.

[caulfield12]

We had Ozzie.

 

Ventura was the anti-Ozzie.

 

It worked, for awhile, but then the Tigers' talent won out and the pitchers wore down in 2012.

 

To anyone who has followed the game of baseball for most of their lives, it's very obvious that whatever's happening right now from a managerial standpoint, it's just not working and hasn't been working for a long time.

 

(Just like in the Rockies' example...Hurdle was a hard-ass and then they turned to Tracy in 2009, who was another polar opposite. Going back to 2002, Hurdle was the opposite of the soft-spoken Buddy Bell, exactly what was needed at that particular time as well.)

 

 

 

So, if it's not related to anything Ventura's doing, then our entire minor league coaching staff (in terms of those working specifically with position players)....they all need to go, right?

 

We're either not coaching/instructing them well in the fundamentals, OR we're bringing in fundamentally-flawed players, OR BOTH.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[Buehrle>Wood]

the owner's rep of not firing their cronies comes to mind.

 

but this discussion, who is a good candidate to replace him in the interim.

 

My pick would be Don Cooper. I don't think he'll be part of the next managing regime, unless he is the manager himself, so might as well give him that chance now. He deserves it after all these years in the organization

 

There's a good chance he's a disaster, which is fine by me. No different then what is going now. At best, his fiery personality could light a fire under this team.

 

His personality will be good to grab some much needed headlines even when we stink. Keep us somewhat relevent. Similar to Ozzie in that regard.

 

[Dick Allen]

the owner's rep of not firing their cronies comes to mind.

 

but this discussion, who is a good candidate to replace him in the interim.

And yet everyone still gives Hawk the GM hell for firing Tony LaRussa even though after 83 the 84 team sucked, the 85 team was decent and they were playing horribly in 1986 when he was fired. Fregosi had a 40 point higher winning percentage as the White Sox manager that year. Yeah, firing the manager makes many fans happy, but it doesn't fix things. Robin is fine. If your closer is going to get rocked, and it happens from time to time with every one of them, you are probably going to lose.

[LDF]

My pick would be Don Cooper. I don't think he'll be part of the next managing regime, unless he is the manager himself, so might as well give him that chance now. He deserves it after all these years in the organization

 

There's a good chance he's a disaster, which is fine by me. No different then what is going now. At best, his fiery personality could light a fire under this team.

 

His personality will be good to grab some much needed headlines even when we stink. Keep us somewhat relevent. Similar to Ozzie in that regard.

 

fiery temper sure, but wouldn't he be closely recognize with RV???

[Dick Allen]

My pick would be Don Cooper. I don't think he'll be part of the next managing regime, unless he is the manager himself, so might as well give him that chance now. He deserves it after all these years in the organization

 

There's a good chance he's a disaster, which is fine by me. No different then what is going now. At best, his fiery personality could light a fire under this team.

 

His personality will be good to grab some much needed headlines even when we stink. Keep us somewhat relevent. Similar to Ozzie in that regard.

His personality hasn't exactly lit a fire under his pitchers. He is the self proclaimed manager of the pitching staff.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

the owner's rep of not firing their cronies comes to mind.

 

but this discussion, who is a good candidate to replace him in the interim.

 

[caulfield12]

My pick would be Don Cooper. I don't think he'll be part of the next managing regime, unless he is the manager himself, so might as well give him that chance now. He deserves it after all these years in the organization

 

There's a good chance he's a disaster, which is fine by me. No different then what is going now. At best, his fiery personality could light a fire under this team.

 

His personality will be good to grab some much needed headlines even when we stink. Keep us somewhat relevent. Similar to Ozzie in that regard.

 

Why not?

 

And, has been pointed out about 1,000 times in the last 2-3 seasons, what has Cooper done that's so great....recently?

 

It's certainly not impossible a change of scenery is needed, that things have gotten stale for him after nearly three decades. (Longer than most posters here have been alive).

 

There's just WAY too much talent among Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon to be getting these kinds of results on a consistent basis.

 

It's a win/win situation. If Cooper doesn't work out, it was probably time for everyone to move on...the critics get their way (and they start bringing in new blood hopefully). If he does succeed, that means the team responded and played well.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12