Are we really that good?

[Jake]

First, I'd like to say that I'm one who wouldn't have really dreamed of this offseason. I don't love the Samardzija acquisition, because he's in a contract year, has had only one good season (though it was his most recent), and because we lost our most viable 2B candidate to get him. I don't love the Cabrera acquisition because he's a douchebag, has only had three good seasons, one of which was just before PED suspension and the other the same year as that suspension - he isn't a great runner, fielder, or power-hitter, making him highly dependent on his stroke.

 

Nonetheless, the team has definitely gotten better. But how good are we, really? I noticed that, even with Melky added into the calculation, that FanGraphs' WAR projection still has the Sox as 2nd-to-last in the AL. Rather than just assume that they are completely off-base, I wanted to look at exactly what they are projecting. I've tried to make this skimmable.

 

Catcher

Total WAR - 1.4

MLB Rank - #29

 

Tyler Flowers (352 PA) - 0.8 WAR, .208/.272/.362

Adrian Nieto (192 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .223/.287/.337

 

Clearly, they're probably wrong about Nieto's role. From the looks of the projection for Brantly, we'd have a modest gain by giving him Nieto's at-bats. Still, the main thing here is to have Flowers outperform this projection. We're really weak at this position with not a lot of upside.

 

First Base

Total WAR - 3.3

MLB Rank - #8

 

Jose Abreu (350 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .283/.355/.530

Adam LaRoche (315 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .239/.343/.434

 

Before you lose your mind, these are only the statistics expected to compiled by the players while playing first base. So their projected ABs for Abreu at DH will up that projection for him. Nonetheless, they're taking a conservative guess at how he'll do in his second year. This is reasonable given how limited his track record is. I don't think they have the playing time mix right at this spot, but it's not very significant as they aren't all that different defensively.

 

Second Base

Total WAR - 0.5

MLB Rank - #29

 

Carlos Sanchez (490 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .259/.306/.341

Leury Garcia (175 PA) - -0.2 WAR, .225/.268/.306

 

Well, they definitely have the playing time mix wrong here as I think most of us would agree that Leury is a relative longshot to make the roster, let alone get around 20% of the reps at 2B. Even if we gave those reps to Sanchez's projection, we don't move up a single spot in the MLB rankings. There's just nobody with a MLB track record here. Sanchez is the most prepared, arguably, but the projection reflects how little upside he has. Saladino could be in the mix here and arguably possesses higher upside. The Sox may have optimism for Micah here, but his AAA production wasn't there to make me feel confident.

 

Third Base

Total WAR - 1.2

MLB Rank - #26

 

Conor Gillaspie (490 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .255/.319/.393

Matt Davidson (140 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .218/.289/.381

 

While I don't think Davidson gets those ABs, it shows you that someone is likely to get a lot of reserve ABs at 3B and there aren't any promising candidates. And a lot of us are remembering 1st half Gillaspie and forgetting how dreadful he was down the stretch. We just don't have much at this position unless Gillaspie suddenly finds more consistency at the dish or gets a lot better defensively. A productive platoon partner could make a lot of difference, too.

 

Shortstop

Total WAR - 2.4 WAR

MLB Rank - #13

 

Alexei Ramirez (630 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .265/.300/.379

 

This is about as pessimistic of a projection for Alexei as their system could have produced. He's coming off seasons of 3.1 and 3.3 WAR with similar plate appearance numbers as their projection has. The projection basically has his offense regressing back to where it was in 2013 and his defense to where it was in 2014 (the worst of his career). It also projects a career low in baserunning. Again, pretty pessimistic, though not implausible.

 

Either way, it's a strength of the team, but whether he replicates last year or falls to their projection could play a role in how good the Sox are.

 

Left Field

Total WAR - 1.8

MLB Rank - #20

 

Melky Cabrera (560 PA) - 1.6 WAR, .288/.341/.432

 

Pretty expensive upgrade from #27 projection to #20 projection at this position. If you think the playing time is low, do know that he's only reached 560 PA three times in nine seasons. Melky had the second-best offensive season of his career last year and had a 2.6 WAR, so this isn't a crazy projection overall. His real downfall is that he's a bad defensive player at this point in his career. Melky's advanced defensive numbers show that he's only a modest improvement on Dayan in LF, with not much difference in range, which is kind of crazy and shows you that he's gotten chubby and possibly lazy.

 

If Melky stays where he was last year or does something more like 2012, that would be a big boost.

 

Center Field

Total WAR - 2.2

MLB Rank - #20

 

Adam Eaton (595 PA) - 2.0 WAR, .273/.343/.379

 

As is typical, second-year players aren't assumed to replicate success. They see him taking a step back towards the numbers he posted with the D-Backs in 2013. His 2014 WAR was 2.7, for comparison's sake. This is another case of a place where we have upside depending on whether he avoids injuries and/or gets even better at the plate. Their more pessimistic projection seems to be based on a lower BABIP, which was .359 last year. In the minors, Eaton posted BABIPs of .446, .430, .379, .345, .375, and .432. I'd say it wouldn't be crazy for him to continue to have high BABIP which might color your own projections differently.

 

Right Field

Total WAR - 1.3

MLB Rank - #22

 

Avisail Garcia (490 PA) - 1.1 WAR, .273/.317/.426

JB Shuck/Dayan Viciedo/Jordan Danks combined for 0.2 WAR in 210 additional PA.

 

Two things to note: Avi wasn't healthy, so they don't yet endow him with a projection of good health. Avi also hasn't proven himself at the plate, so he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt there. They're also pretty optimistic on his defense, which has been awful thus far.

 

Avi is a big wildcard, I don't know what we'll get from him. This is a position where we can say "at least we have upside" because I could see us getting as much as 4.0 WAR from this spot which would be huge. We could also end up demoting the kid at some point for all we know.

 

Designated Hitter

Total WAR - 2.3

MLB Rank - #4

 

Adam LaRoche (280 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .239/.343/.434

Jose Abreu (245 PA) - 1.4 WAR, .283/.355/.530

 

As mentioned before, I think LaRoche gets a larger portion of the PA here than they have projected, but it doesn't really matter. See comments on the 1Bmen.

 

Starting Pitchers

Total WAR - 10.5

MLB Rank - #8

 

Chris Sale (188 IP) - 4.6 WAR, 3.02 ERA/3.07 FIP

Jeff Samardzija (188 IP) - 3.0 WAR, 3.93 ERA/3.69 FIP

Jose Quintana (179 IP) - 2.4 WAR, 3.95 ERA/3.89 FIP

Hector Noesi (139 IP) - 0.2 WAR, 5.04 ERA/5.02 FIP

John Danks (129 IP) - 0.3 WAR, 5.01 ERA/4.89 FIP

 

Nothing too crazy here. Seems too pessimistic on Quintana for me, though. By season, Q has put up 3.76 ERA/4.23 FIP, 3.51/3.82, and 3.32/2.81. Odd to project his worst season or at least worst since rookie season now. I think some of it has to do with the fact that his HR rate was cut in half last year compared to the previous two seasons, suggesting some luck. I think he'll pitch pretty similarly to last year. I also don't think both Noesi and Danks will do that poorly. It is important, though, to keep in mind that these projections are averages of the many possible seasons these guys could have. So this accounts for the possibility that Noesi/Danks post 7.00 ERA and things like that. The weight of bad possibilities compared to good ones is probably tilted towards bad for those guys.

 

Either way, this is a good rotation! If we have the 8th best output from our starters next year, we'll all be happy. We were at 11 last season.

 

Relief Pitchers

Total WAR - 2.0

MLB Rank - #14

 

David Robertson (65 IP) - 1.6 WAR, 2.82 ERA/2.78 FIP

Zach Duke (65 IP) - 0.7 WAR, 3.44 ERA/3.48 FIP

Zach Putnam (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.15 ERA/4.01 FIP

Jake Petricka (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.17 ERA/4.01 FIP

Javy Guerra (45 IP) - -0.1 WAR, 4.49 ERA/4.49 FIP

Daniel Webb (40 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.25 ERA/4.11 FIP

Dan Jennings (35 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.18 ERA/4.13 FIP

 

Once again, nothing crazy. Relievers are hard to project and some of the guys we'll be counting on based on their production last year basically came out of nowhere (Putnam and Petricka especially, to a lesser extent Guerra but he didn't do that great and we aren't really depending on him). Jennings might stand out to some, but bear in mind that he's never thrown a ton of innings and has posted stats that seem very regression-worthy. It won't be the end of the world if he posts those kind of numbers.

 

We were at #25 from relievers last season, FWIW. I also don't have an easy to access this, but last I looked into it I believe we had the worst MLB record with leads in 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Those should definitely improve.

 

Final thoughts

Once again, our total projection is to be the second-worst team in the AL. With that said, we are also ahead of 7 NL teams, which says something about the league-wide balance of power (and the difference the DH makes to this calculation). It's also worth noting that where we are (#22, 28.8 WAR) and 4th best team in MLB is less than 10 WAR. It isn't easy to add 10 WAR to your projection, but it isn't at all crazy for the projections to ultimately be off by that far.

 

It's also worth directing your attention to FanGraphs' own article about how projections are not predictions. Projections are our best guesses and in the case of places like FanGraphs, they are always subject to change, whether that is via new players or new information - like if the players start outperforming the initial projections.

 

Nonetheless, despite our improvements, the numbers clearly show that we have to have a lot of things go right. A lot of our best players are relatively unproven. We have some wide-open question mark positions. We can't afford to have many guys underperform their expectations and we have to have several guys outperform expectations. I wouldn't be placing any bets on the Sox just yet, even if we are a lot more exciting.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Jake

[bmags]

Well, when you project every single player to regress, then yeah, 4th is likely.

[Balta1701]

Last year, once teams got into the range of ~30 fWAR, the had a decent shot at being competitive for the playoffs. In that list I added up over 28.5 based on the projections.

 

It's also remarkable how it projects literally every single white sox starting pitcher to have a worse season than last year, by a lot.

[mataipaepae]

Why is WAR the end all be all?

[Jose Abreu]

Yeah, those projections are grossly pessimistic.

[AlSoxfan]

Nice post, thanks I enjoyed reading it but we're gonna win....lol

[TheFutureIsNear]

Name me 2 AL teams that you can say without a doubt are better than the Sox right now....I'll wait.

[Reddy]

Last year, once teams got into the range of ~30 fWAR, the had a decent shot at being competitive for the playoffs. In that list I added up over 28.5 based on the projections.

 

It's also remarkable how it projects literally every single white sox starting pitcher to have a worse season than last year, by a lot.

Steamer has projected regression in seemingly everyone this year regardless of team. Bizarre, since in the past it was a pretty optimistic projection system IIRC

 

[BaconOnAStick]

It has every single player on the White Sox getting worse.

[LDF]

 

one will not get or field a team that is going to be top 2 or 3 in the league.

 

a team needs a comfortable mix of statical players that can get along

and jells together.

 

no matter what, this team needs to be healthy in all aspects.

[Kyyle23]

Why is WAR the end all be all?

 

 

It certainly is not

[Dunt]

Ya, Abreu is totally going to be a 2.3 WAR player this year

[chw42]

Yeah, those projections are grossly pessimistic.

 

That's what some projection systems are. They're pessimistic to be safe.

[chw42]

Ya, Abreu is totally going to be a 2.3 WAR player this year

 

Read what Jake said after he posted that part. Then take a look at the DH portion.

[thxfrthmmrs]

There are 1000 WARs for an MLB season and these projections tries to distribute it evenly across all players and prevent outliers as much as possible, hence you have cases where both Kershaw and Sale are project for less than 5.0 WAR. The WAR projections are based on the average of all outcomes I believe, and you rarely see any fluke or breakout seasons from these projections.

 

I expect a couple of breakout seasons from Avi, Eaton, and even Abreu with better conditioning under his belt. Samardzija should also be due for a good year in his contract year. Those alone would push us over 33 WARs and make us a .500 at least.

Edited December 15, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[thxfrthmmrs]

Steamer has projected regression in seemingly everyone this year regardless of team. Bizarre, since in the past it was a pretty optimistic projection system IIRC

 

Projections on stats maybe, but projections based on WARs were never optimistic, as the number of WARs are capped for an MLB season.

[witesoxfan]

Jose Quintana projected for 2.4 WAR is crazy too. There's no reason to assume he's not a 3-4 WAR pitcher, considering he was worth 5.3 WAR just last year.

 

I can't look at projections and draw conclusions based on those. It's fair to ask this question, but I don't think this team is clsoe to being the 2nd worst team in the AL at this point.

[bmags]

one will not get or field a team that is going to be top 2 or 3 in the league.

 

a team needs a comfortable mix of statical players that can get along

and jells together.

 

no matter what, this team needs to be healthy in all aspects.

This. We can expect some to decline, and some to be better, but we really are going to struggle to overcome any injury obstacles.

[Jake]

The hardest thing about looking at the projections is keeping in mind that if you're comparing a player only to himself, he usually looks bad because the projection system tries to account for all possibilities. And given that some amount of the time, every player will get hurt, a lot of guys have lowered projection totals because it has to account for the possibility of injury. This is part of the reason why every pitcher seems to have a lower WAR projection - nobody is getting projected to throw 250 IP like Kluber threw last year.

 

And FWIW, WAR is definitely the best way to think about this. There is a stat called BaseRuns which is overall better for projecting record, but not as useful for finding weak spots on the team. Either way, you want to be able to account for all phases of the game in a way that is better than going, "Hmm...we're pretty good at this, not so good at that, really good at that other thing...we're good."

 

My main takeaways were:

-Abreu, Eaton, Avisail have more to prove

-Gillaspie, Flowers, and everyone at 2B still need to prove that they are even starting-caliber MLB guys

-Quintana's projection is absurdly low, IMO

-The back end of the rotation could feasibly come back and bite us

-Melky and LaRoche weren't exactly cost-efficient upgrades

 

So the key in projecting us in a more subjective way is deciding whether we have a decent option for 2B, what we can reasonably expect from our stars (1B/CF/RF/SS), and if our marginal guys won't kill us (C/3B). Interestingly enough, I don't think there's a lot of intrigue with the pitching staff.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Jake

[Chisoxfn]

Name me 2 AL teams that you can say without a doubt are better than the Sox right now....I'll wait.

I think there are a lot of teams better than the Sox. We have two guys who are 5th starters in our rotation and not even good 5th starters at that. I don't mind Noesi cause of his price but current rotation, while strong at the top, has signifcant flaws in the back end. Bullpen has improved but is still going to need young players to step up and take greater roles and play better than they did a year ago. But most importantly...our team defense is atrocious. That is what really irks me about this whole thing...we have done nothing to improve our defense.

 

PS: Micah Johnson will be starting by the mid-point of the season yet Leury is projected for WAR. Just want to point out that It would be stunning if Micah isn't contributing somewhere. I still think the Sox are going to look for an upgrade in the rotation and would agree with general sentiment that they aren't necessarily happy at 3B / C and would expect them to be looking and willing to deal young prospects if they can find a cost-controlled piece, preferably one who is a good defensive player as well.

[LDF]

The hardest thing about looking at the projections is keeping in mind that if you're comparing a player only to himself, he usually looks bad because the projection system tries to account for all possibilities. And given that some amount of the time, every player will get hurt, a lot of guys have lowered projection totals because it has to account for the possibility of injury. This is part of the reason why every pitcher seems to have a lower WAR projection - nobody is getting projected to throw 250 IP like Kluber threw last year.

 

And FWIW, WAR is definitely the best way to think about this. There is a stat called BaseRuns which is overall better for projecting record, but not as useful for finding weak spots on the team. Either way, you want to be able to account for all phases of the game in a way that is better than going, "Hmm...we're pretty good at this, not so good at that, really good at that other thing...we're good."

 

My main takeaways were:

-Abreu, Eaton, Avisail have more to prove

-Gillaspie, Flowers, and everyone at 2B still need to prove that they are even starting-caliber MLB guys

-Quintana's projection is absurdly low, IMO

-The back end of the rotation could feasibly come back and bite us

-Melky and LaRoche weren't exactly cost-efficient upgrades

 

So the key in projecting us in a more subjective way is deciding whether we have a decent option for 2B, what we can reasonably expect from our stars (1B/CF/RF/SS), and if our marginal guys won't kill us (C/3B). Interestingly enough, I don't think there's a lot of intrigue with the pitching staff.

 

what a great analysis and spot on esp on the C / 3b, i think i will add

2b as well.

[witesoxfan]

I also feel this projection has been shortchanged due to a lack of representation for Rodon. I think he's probably a 2 WAR starter next year with the potential for more too.

[LDF]

I think there are a lot of teams better than the Sox. We have two guys who are 5th starters in our rotation and not even good 5th starters at that. I don't mind Noesi cause of his price but current rotation, while strong at the top, has signifcant flaws in the back end. Bullpen has improved but is still going to need young players to step up and take greater roles and play better than they did a year ago. But most importantly...our team defense is atrocious. That is what really irks me about this whole thing...we have done nothing to improve our defense.

 

PS: Micah Johnson will be starting by the mid-point of the season yet Leury is projected for WAR. Just want to point out that It would be stunning if Micah isn't contributing somewhere. I still think the Sox are going to look for an upgrade in the rotation and would agree with general sentiment that they aren't necessarily happy at 3B / C and would expect them to be looking and willing to deal young prospects if they can find a cost-controlled piece, preferably one who is a good defensive player as well.

 

i rather not take the chance of letting our #4-5 compete let alone

do ok in a playoff push. i would also like to add, i definitely do not

like to trust lady luck on C. Rodon doing great.

 

so i still advocate trading some of the prospect for a another SP like

J Cueto - reds.

[Chisoxfn]

I also feel this projection has been shortchanged due to a lack of representation for Rodon. I think he's probably a 2 WAR starter next year with the potential for more too.

No offense Wite, but pass whatever you are sniffing. 2 WAR starter for a guy who was drafted last year is an incredibly unrealistic expectation for him, imo. Could he do it, certainly, but to do something like that, being drafted all of 6 months ago, is an extremely tough feat. I think for this year, we could look at Rodon as a guy who could hold is own in the 4th / 5th spot, while flashing some of that upside (and also getting hit at times).

[southsider2k5]

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 11m11 minutes ago

 

Bovada odds on #WhiteSox to win World Series 28-1. 8 AL teams w/ better odds, including Bos 9-1, Det 12-1, KC 20-1. (Sox 40-1 on 10/30/14).