Baseball Prospectus Top 10 list is out

[NorthSideSox72]

Here is the BP Top 10 White Sox Prospects list. Great depth in the write-ups. Rodon at 2, Beck at 6 are surprises to me. Also, they seem to think Sanchez has a higher ceiling and long term value than Micah Johnson.

 

[oneofthemikes]

Here is the BP Top 10 White Sox Prospects list. Great depth in the write-ups. Rodon at 2, Beck at 6 are surprises to me. Also, they seem to think Sanchez has a higher ceiling and long term value than Micah Johnson.

 

I'm not a BP member, but could you tell us if the ranking is more about BP being really high on Anderson, not liking something about Rodon, or possibly both?

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm not a BP member, but could you tell us if the ranking is more about BP being really high on Anderson, not liking something about Rodon, or possibly both?

I don't want to quote material directly from behind a firewall, but in general, BP has been really high on Anderson. More so than other pubs. But they did also indicate Rodon could use a little more polish, and a couple other relatively minor quibbles.

 

[oneofthemikes]

I don't want to quote material directly from behind a firewall, but in general, BP has been really high on Anderson. More so than other pubs. But they did also indicate Rodon could use a little more polish, and a couple other relatively minor quibbles.

 

Good deal, I saw the rankings and I wasn't sure whether to be really, really excited about Anderson or whether to temper my expectations of Rodon by a little bit. Thanks for the info!

[royoung]

Here is the BP Top 10 White Sox Prospects list. Great depth in the write-ups. Rodon at 2, Beck at 6 are surprises to me. Also, they seem to think Sanchez has a higher ceiling and long term value than Micah Johnson.

 

Chris Beck at #6 is interesting as well. 2015 will be a big year for him

[Quin]

That was unexpected.

[LDF]

Chris Beck at #6 is interesting as well. 2015 will be a big year for him

 

Beck and May are the ones that surprise me.

[kevo880]

Micah Johnson at #9 and below Sanchez surprised me.

[kevo880]

Hawkins being higher than Johnson just doesn't seem right.

[Eminor3rd]

Chris Beck at #6 is interesting as well. 2015 will be a big year for him

 

Yeah, aggressive on Beck. However, after reading the whole article, it looks like it's more about them being down on Micah/Hawkins/etc. than high on Beck.

[thxfrthmmrs]

BP has always strived to distinguish themselves (having a Top 101 instead of Top 100 is trying a little too hard). They have always been high on Beck. IIRC, they had Beck at 3 or 4 last year, despite averaging around 4 k's per 9 innings in A ball.

 

I would also take Rodon being #2 with a grain of salt. Most of us have been following Rodon closely last season, and I think from what we've read, he's a pretty safe bet to be at least an average starter and ace potential if he reaches his ceiling. Placing a bigger question mark but not a higher reward guy like Anderson over him might just be a statement on their part.

[LDF]

Micah Johnson at #9 and below Sanchez surprised me.

 

i am not trying to start an argument, but to me, this seems about right and

the same about hawkins.

[LDF]

BP has always strived to distinguish themselves (having a Top 101 instead of Top 100 is trying a little too hard). They have always been high on Beck. IIRC, they had Beck at 3 or 4 last year, despite averaging around 4 k's per 9 innings in A ball.

 

I would also take Rodon being #2 with a grain of salt. Most of us have been following Rodon closely last season, and I think from what we've read, he's a pretty safe bet to be at least an average starter and ace potential if he reaches his ceiling. Placing a bigger question mark but not a higher reward guy like Anderson over him might just be a statement on their part.

 

that football picture is kool as hell.

 

now that is a bold statement. when i said this several months ago, i think i got

skinned. but i agree. everything will need to click, pretty much like it did with Sale.

 

with Anderson, i am all for him. i am really excited about him. i can't wait for spring

training.

[thxfrthmmrs]

that football picture is kool as hell.

 

now that is a bold statement. when i said this several months ago, i think i got

skinned. but i agree. everything will need to click, pretty much like it did with Sale.

 

with Anderson, i am all for him. i am really excited about him. i can't wait for spring

training.

 

I have friends who went to FSU and they been called the Criminoles since this crab leg incident

 

As for Rodon, I think that assessment is general consensus unless people are playing extremist and think that he won't develop the change up and wind up in the bullpen.

[LDF]

I have friends who went to FSU and they been called the Criminoles since this crab leg incident

 

As for Rodon, I think that assessment is general consensus unless people are playing extremist and think that he won't develop the change up and wind up in the bullpen.

 

with his future looking good, i would most assuredly let him develop in the minors

on his overall pitches. he is far from the finish product many have thought, esp having

a slider as your #1 pitch.

 

he is no Sale.

[kevo880]

i am not trying to start an argument, but to me, this seems about right and

the same about hawkins.

 

To each their own. I agree more with Sanchez and Johnson being 8 and 9 than I do Hawkins being 6. I don't have much hope for Hawkins reaching the majors, while the other 2 guys should have successful careers in the majors, even if they aren't regular starters.

 

I hope I'm wrong on Hawkins and I'm pulling for him, but he has a ton of work to do.

[thxfrthmmrs]

with his future looking good, i would most assuredly let him develop in the minors

on his overall pitches. he is far from the finish product many have thought, esp having

a slider as your #1 pitch.

 

he is no Sale.

 

That's more of a testament to how good his slider truly is. I think his slider is already better than most front line starter's best pitch in the majors. It's not a knock against his fastball, which is currently a 60 pitch.

 

He still has a lot of work left on his command and also need to work on the change up. With that said, his floor is relatively high based on his two major league level pitches and the likelihood that he will develop an above average change up.

[LDF]

To each their own. I agree more with Sanchez and Johnson being 8 and 9 than I do Hawkins being 6. I don't have much hope for Hawkins reaching the majors, while the other 2 guys should have successful careers in the majors, even if they aren't regular starters.

 

I hope I'm wrong on Hawkins and I'm pulling for him, but he has a ton of work to do.

 

that is kool, i think hawkins will make the majors, maybe now as the heralded prospects

everyone thought he was.

[LDF]

That's more of a testament to how good his slider truly is. I think his slider is already better than most front line starter's best pitch in the majors. It's not a knock against his fastball, which is currently a 60 pitch.

 

He still has a lot of work left on his command and also need to work on the change up. With that said, his floor is relatively high based on his two major league level pitches and the likelihood that he will develop an above average change up.

 

i don't know about his slider, i will give way to others opinion on that. they prob know more

than i. however i still think he needs more seasoning and more work. he can't depend on that

slider alone.

[Quin]

i don't know about his slider, i will give way to others opinion on that. they prob know more

than i. however i still think he needs more seasoning and more work. he can't depend on that

slider alone.

 

I know it's always brought up, but watch highlights of Rodon vs. Cuba a few years ago. His stuff was the best it's ever looked in that game and analysts said he could have mowed down an MLB lineup that night. His slider was straight filthy.

[thxfrthmmrs]

i don't know about his slider, i will give way to others opinion on that. they prob know more

than i. however i still think he needs more seasoning and more work. he can't depend on that

slider alone.

 

It seems you're disagreeing with my assessment of his floor. Most people would agree that he's not ready for the majors right now, so you are correct in saying that. But that's not the same as saying what his floor is. A floor for a prospect is his worst likely outcome, while ceiling is his best likely outcome. When you say that he needs "more seasoning and work" and hinting that he won't be a league average starter at the moment, that's saying what his currently profile is, not his floor, because that's the worst outcome, not the worst likely outcome. He's likely to at least improve his command some what and be at least an average starter.

 

I don't know where you got the impression that he's a one pitch pitcher. Here's a detailed scouting report on Rodon from Fangraphs by Kiley McDaniel in case you missed it. Keep in mind McDaniel usually projects on the conservative side, so you should interpret it your own way.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/

 

The White Sox had some draft room theories about Rodon’s draft year struggles (the draft hype created unreasonable expectations, target on his back, etc.) and they thought they could get him back to his premium stuff at some point in pro ball. To everyone’s surprise, Rodon had the premium stuff back in every pro start after signing: 92-96, hitting 97 mph with at least a 70 slider that he didn’t throw much (as instructed by the White Sox) and the above average changeup that he finally had some time to work on. For the reasons mentioned above, I still think Rodon settles in at 90-94 mph (still a 55 pitch), but I’m not going to act like I know when that’s going to happen.

 

Rodon still needs to clean up the delivery a bit (he’s already made some tweaks since signing) and work on his fastball command (he misses too much to his arm side), but the changeup flashed 55 to 60 potential after signing, so that above grade may be light, and the slider is an 80 at times when the fastball is in the mid-90′s, so that grade could be light as well. I rounded up on the fastball and the command, as both could settle a little below that, but the White Sox have a great track record with pitchers at the big league level and Rodon’s development isn’t following any rubric I’m aware of. If you’d like to get a sense of Rodon’s personality, he analyzed the July 4th hot dog eating competition on a podcast.

 

...

 

FV/Role/Risk: 65, #2/3 starter, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB

 

In summary, with some work, he'll likely have 2 plus pitches along with a wipeout slider. If he can slightly improve his command, he'll be an average starter. If he can significantly improve his command, he will be the ace of the rotation. Note that McDaniel labeled his prospect risk as low, suggesting he'll likely at least reach his floor.

Edited January 12, 2015 by thxfrthmmrs

[LDF]

It seems you're disagreeing with my assessment of his floor. Most people would agree that he's not ready for the majors right now, so you are correct in saying that. But that's not the same as saying what his floor is. A floor for a prospect is his worst likely outcome, while ceiling is his best likely outcome. When you say that he needs "more seasoning and work" and hinting that he won't be a league average starter at the moment, that's saying what his currently profile is, not his floor, because that's the worst outcome, not the worst likely outcome. He's likely to at least improve his command some what and be at least an average starter.

 

I don't know where you got the impression that he's a one pitch pitcher. Here's a detailed scouting report on Rodon from Fangraphs by Kiley McDaniel in case you missed it. Keep in mind McDaniel usually projects on the conservative side, so you should interpret it your own way.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/

 

 

 

In summary, with some work, he'll likely have 2 plus pitches along with a wipeout slider. If he can slightly improve his command, he'll be an average starter. If he can significantly improve his command, he will be the ace of the rotation. Note that McDaniel labeled his prospect risk as low, suggesting he'll likely at least reach his floor.

and i am not disputing you or your hard work to present this. all i am saying is

i think it would behoove him to get that extra work in the minors. if the coaches

who really know more than i would ever gather, if they say he is ready to move

to the majors. then so be it. i just don't want anyone to rush him.

 

second, the sox had him work on other pitches and to forgo the slider. so it is

obvious that they, the sox, wanted him to work on his other pitches.

 

next yr for the sox is going to be great, i would like the sox to have the starters

ready to carry the load. not to have the wheel fall off.

 

[LDF]

I know it's always brought up, but watch highlights of Rodon vs. Cuba a few years ago. His stuff was the best it's ever looked in that game and analysts said he could have mowed down an MLB lineup that night. His slider was straight filthy.

 

what the coaches and experts want from any player is consistency when it is

their time to perform. not to have bouts of having a great game and then

mediocre performance. that consistency comes from training and coaching.

[thxfrthmmrs]

and i am not disputing you or your hard work to present this. all i am saying is

i think it would behoove him to get that extra work in the minors. if the coaches

who really know more than i would ever gather, if they say he is ready to move

to the majors. then so be it. i just don't want anyone to rush him.

 

second, the sox had him work on other pitches and to forgo the slider. so it is

obvious that they, the sox, wanted him to work on his other pitches.

 

next yr for the sox is going to be great, i would like the sox to have the starters

ready to carry the load. not to have the wheel fall off.

 

I agree with everything you said about his current development status and his need for work in the minors, I am not pushing him to the bullpen if that's what you're thinking. When I talked about floor in the original post, I was talking about his worst likely outcome, not current prospect profile. Unless you are debating whether or not Rodon has a floor of a league average starter and the ceiling of an ace, then I think we are talking about different things lol.

[LDF]

I agree with everything you said about his current development status and his need for work in the minors, I am not pushing him to the bullpen if that's what you're thinking. When I talked about floor in the original post, I was talking about his worst likely outcome, not current prospect profile. Unless you are debating whether or not Rodon has a floor of a league average starter and the ceiling of an ace, then I think we are talking about different things lol.

 

then i am guilty and will hang my head in shame.

 

b/c i think his floor is a little below avg and his ceiling is that of an ace. i just want

him to get ready and be the best he can. esp if the sox are in the playoff. he as the

other pitchers will be needed to be counted on.