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Realistic Adam Dunn expectations


DOWNTOWN PANTHER
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The former Texas Longhorn QB recruit may have a big name, but has hit more meaningless roundtrippers than anyone in the game. As a Cincinnati Reds fan I can tell you that the Reds were drastically better without him. He can hit the long ball, but strikes out a ton. There is a reason he has floated from team to team since leaving Cincinnati.

 

Unless they do a movie about Will Farrells life, Adam Dunn will be best known as the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

 

Thats just my opinion.

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This post is almost not worth responding to, but I had to. I was going to lay down some sarcastic comment, but I decided to get some stats. Yes, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot. But he also walks a lot, hits a lot of homeruns, and drives in a lot of runs.

 

In his 10 year career, he has hit 354 HRs, drove in 880 runs, walked 990 times, has an OBP of .381, a slugging % of .521, and an OPS of .902.

 

Hardly the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 07:18 AM)
The former Texas Longhorn QB recruit may have a big name, but has hit more meaningless roundtrippers than anyone in the game. As a Cincinnati Reds fan I can tell you that the Reds were drastically better without him. He can hit the long ball, but strikes out a ton. There is a reason he has floated from team to team since leaving Cincinnati.

 

Unless they do a movie about Will Farrells life, Adam Dunn will be best known as the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

 

Thats just my opinion.

 

Reggie Jackson struck out a ton. Jim Thome does as well.

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This guy would have been an all star for 5 straight years if he wasn't on such a s***ty team, and people weren't voting in koskuke fukudome and other hacks. Dunn is going to do what he does every year. Hit .250 and drop 40 bombs.

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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:51 AM)
Dont take my word for it. Check in with me at about midseason and let me know then.

 

You guys dont have to shoot the messanger here.

 

Alos, for the person comparing Adam Dunn to Reggie Jackson. Relax!!

 

It wasn't meant to be a direct comparison. I was just saying that striking out a ton doesn't suddenly make a player awful.

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QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:00 AM)
This post is almost not worth responding to, but I had to. I was going to lay down some sarcastic comment, but I decided to get some stats. Yes, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot. But he also walks a lot, hits a lot of homeruns, and drives in a lot of runs.

 

In his 10 year career, he has hit 354 HRs, drove in 880 runs, walked 990 times, has an OBP of .381, a slugging % of .521, and an OPS of .902.

 

Hardly the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

 

Does anyone have the stats of how he does in RBI situations?

 

The thing that will drive me crazy during the season is the same thing that drove me crazy with Thome, when the Sox have a guy in scoring position Dunn will strikeout or walk which will not get the run in. The next guy up grounds into a double play or is out and the Sox don't score.

 

I'm not saying getting him is a bad deal because I like his presence in the lineup. But guys like him and Thome who have a high strikeout and walk rates look good on OBP but they seems to do it at a time when a single would be much more effective.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 09:53 AM)
It wasn't meant to be a direct comparison. I was just saying that striking out a ton doesn't suddenly make a player awful.

 

It doesnt help.

 

Also, unless the 3rd base coach has a miller lite and a box of white castles there dont expect him to hustle either.

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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:59 AM)
It doesnt help.

 

Also, unless the 3rd base coach has a miller lite and a box of white castles there dont expect him to hustle either.

In his interviews, he said one of the reasons he likes Chicago is the Portillo's Italian beef sandwiches. So maybe that will get him moving!

 

:lol:

 

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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:59 AM)
It doesnt help.

 

Also, unless the 3rd base coach has a miller lite and a box of white castles there dont expect him to hustle either.

 

I love when the disgruntled fan comes over to educate everyone on the negatives on a newly acquired player is. Well Sir I might remind you that the same interwebs that work in Cincy work here as well. And considering Dunn has been linked here for a while, we are pretty up to date on his strengths and weaknesses. But thank you for coming over here to tell us all of his flaws. For any argument you raise, I can trump you with the following fact. AT LEAST HE IS NOT MARK KOTSAY.

 

 

/thread

 

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I'm expecting a .380ish wOBA and at least 650 PAs. If he doesn't play much of the field, that should be worth around 3.5 WAR. That's what a lot of the projections out there right now has him at.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 07:18 AM)
The former Texas Longhorn QB recruit may have a big name, but has hit more meaningless roundtrippers than anyone in the game. As a Cincinnati Reds fan I can tell you that the Reds were drastically better without him. He can hit the long ball, but strikes out a ton. There is a reason he has floated from team to team since leaving Cincinnati.

 

Unless they do a movie about Will Farrells life, Adam Dunn will be best known as the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

 

Thats just my opinion.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...#winprobability

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#lever

 

Those WPAs sure look pretty good in 04 and 05. Dunn's career splits also show he hits the best in high leverage situations (.925 OPS). You're over exaggerating.

 

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 08:57 AM)
Does anyone have the stats of how he does in RBI situations?

 

The thing that will drive me crazy during the season is the same thing that drove me crazy with Thome, when the Sox have a guy in scoring position Dunn will strikeout or walk which will not get the run in. The next guy up grounds into a double play or is out and the Sox don't score.

 

I'm not saying getting him is a bad deal because I like his presence in the lineup. But guys like him and Thome who have a high strikeout and walk rates look good on OBP but they seems to do it at a time when a single would be much more effective.

 

I don't think you can blame Thome for walking. You should probably blame whoever's hitting behind him. Since they're the ones hitting into DPs. All Thome can do is try to not make an out.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#bases

 

Those are Dunn's numbers with different base/out states. Dunn's a career .231 hitter with RISP, but he also has a .420 OBP in those situations. Pitchers are probably more careful with guys like Dunn and Thome when they're up with RISP. They'd much rather pitch around them than attack them and get hurt by a three run home run.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 09:56 AM)
I don't think you can blame Thome for walking. You should probably blame whoever's hitting behind him. Since they're the ones hitting into DPs. All Thome can do is try to not make an out.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#bases

 

Those are Dunn's numbers with different base/out states. Dunn's a career .231 hitter with RISP, but he also has a .420 OBP in those situations. Pitchers are probably more careful with guys like Dunn and Thome when they're up with RISP. They'd much rather pitch around them than attack them and get hurt by a three run home run.

 

It's hard to hit if you don't get a pitch to hit.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 09:56 AM)
I don't think you can blame Thome for walking. You should probably blame whoever's hitting behind him. Since they're the ones hitting into DPs. All Thome can do is try to not make an out.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...r&t=b#bases

 

Those are Dunn's numbers with different base/out states. Dunn's a career .231 hitter with RISP, but he also has a .420 OBP in those situations. Pitchers are probably more careful with guys like Dunn and Thome when they're up with RISP. They'd much rather pitch around them than attack them and get hurt by a three run home run.

 

the speed of Thome did play a factor in it.

 

I'm not saying I don't like him in the lineup I think he will help alot, especially compared to Kotsay. It's just that these types of players drive me crazy because there are borderline pitches they will walk on when a hit would be better. Also the strikeouts don't benefit anything and they will strikeout 3x as much as they hit a HR.

 

Strikeouts and walks do not drive in the run and we know that Dunn will have 220-250 of those this year.

Edited by ptatc
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QUOTE (YASNY @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 09:57 AM)
It's hard to hit if you don't get a pitch to hit.

 

It's also hard to hit when you're only intention during hitting is to hit an HR.

 

There was a stat I read once and I wish I could find the source. It basically said that Thome is the all time leader in PAs when the ball was not in play. this took into account walks, strikeouts and HRs.

 

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:02 AM)
the speed of Thome did play a factor in it.

 

I'm not saying I don't like him in the lineup I think he will help alot, especially compared to Kotsay. It's just that these types of players drive me crazy because there are borderline pitches they will walk on when a hit would be better. Also the strikeouts don't benefit anything and they will strikeout 3x as much as they hit a HR.

 

Sure it did, but the runner's speed on first has less of an effect on a double play than the runner running to first. Of course, it didn't help that Konerko hit behind Thome for the majority of Thome's time here.

 

BTW, Dunn's K rate in RISP situations is 7% lower than his career K rate. His walk rate is also 7% higher than his career walk rate.

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QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:19 AM)
I love when the disgruntled fan comes over to educate everyone on the negatives on a newly acquired player is. Well Sir I might remind you that the same interwebs that work in Cincy work here as well. And considering Dunn has been linked here for a while, we are pretty up to date on his strengths and weaknesses. But thank you for coming over here to tell us all of his flaws. For any argument you raise, I can trump you with the following fact. AT LEAST HE IS NOT MARK KOTSAY.

 

 

/thread

 

Disgruntled fan??? My team won the NL Central last year. I think I speak on behalf of the Reds fans when I say that not having Dunn is a good thing. For the Reds at leat.

 

I think we can politely agree to disagree. All I can say is lets hear your take on your 56 Million dollar man come July.

 

I think you may be taking this a bit too serious.

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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:22 AM)
Disgruntled fan??? My team won the NL Central last year. I think I speak on behalf of the Reds fans when I say that not having Dunn is a good thing. For the Reds at leat.

 

I think we can politely agree to disagree. All I can say is lets hear your take on your 56 Million dollar man come July.

 

I think you may be taking this a bit too serious.

 

I think that is easy for you to say when the man that came up behind him at first was NL MVP which is fine, but I think the Reds success has more to do with their young pitching/hitting finally maturing and a lot less to do with Adam Dunn being in the lineup

 

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The Reds didn't get the max value out of Dunn because they played him in the OF. That's part of the reason why the Reds were so bad. For every run Dunn produced, he cost them probably 3/4 of a run in the OF. That's not going to be an issue anymore since we have the luxury to stick him at DH.

 

The Reds didn't get better because they were without Adam Dunn, they got better because of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and their cheap, young and talented pitchers in 2010.

 

Hell, you're telling me you'd rather have Jonny Gomes' butcher glove in LF and his average bat instead of Adam Dunn?

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 07:18 AM)
The former Texas Longhorn QB recruit may have a big name, but has hit more meaningless roundtrippers than anyone in the game. As a Cincinnati Reds fan I can tell you that the Reds were drastically better without him. He can hit the long ball, but strikes out a ton. There is a reason he has floated from team to team since leaving Cincinnati.

Unless they do a movie about Will Farrells life, Adam Dunn will be best known as the most overrated power hitter of this baseball generation.

 

Thats just my opinion.

That's a funny, inaccurate statement. The Reds dealt him at the end of his contract to the Diamondbacks. It was his walk year, and he signed with the Nationals during one of the weirder offseasons in MLB history given the floundering economy for 2 years. That contract was up and he hit free agency, signing with the White Sox.

 

That's not really bouncing around... one team traded him in his walk year when they stunk.

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QUOTE (Chi Town Sox @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:25 AM)
I think that is easy for you to say when the man that came up behind him at first was NL MVP which is fine, but I think the Reds success has more to do with their young pitching/hitting finally maturing and a lot less to do with Adam Dunn being in the lineup

 

Actually Dunn never played 1st for the Reds.

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