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G&T
QUOTE
On Friday the market for free agents officially opens when teams can begin making offers to players other than those who finished the season with other clubs. The Brewers and Dodgers got the ball rolling at this past week's general managers meetings in Dana Point, California, with the Brewers offering left-hander CC Sabathia five years and $100 million to stay in Milwaukee, and the Dodgers offering two years and $50 million in an effort to keep left fielder Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles.

Considering those were only starting points, it's hard to imagine how high the dollar figures will eventually go. With that in mind, let's take a look at the top 25 free agents, listing their WARP3 for the 2008 season, and making educated guesses about where they might land:

CC Sabathia (11.1): The big left-hander is 28 years old, has never had surgery, and figures to be a workhorse for many years to come. He's the biggest prize on this year's market, and while the Brewers came out of the gate aggressively, Sabathia figures to see bigger numbers from the Yankees. The Cubs, Angels, and Giants will also make a play, with the Dodgers as the wild card. In the end, the Yankees will throw so much money at Sabathia that he won't be able to say no.

Manny Ramirez (10.8): The left fielder had an amazing two months with the Dodgers, playing so well that agent Scott Boras actually believes he'll be offered a six-year contract. That might be a reach; the slugger is 37 years old, and there aren't as many teams interested as one would suspect. The Yankees are concentrating more on adding pitching, and the Angels would prefer to keep Mark Teixeira, while the Nationals and Blue Jays seemingly don't have enough money to get a deal done. Look for the Dodgers to re-sign Ramirez after doubling their initial two-year, $50 million offer to four years and $100 million.

Mark Teixeira (10.8): The switch-hitting first baseman turned down an eight-year, $140 million offer from the Rangers in 2007, so they traded him to the Braves, who in turn dealt him to the Angels this past season. Teixeira would be the most logical fit for the Angels and the Red Sox, and the Yankees also have at least some degree of interest. The one team that seems ready to blow Teixeira out of the water is the Nationals, who could go as high as 10 years and $200 million after a season in which they lost 102 games and had poor attendance in their new Nationals Park. Teixeira grew up in Maryland, and the gut feeling is that he won't say no to a big-money offer from DC.


Baseball Prospectus
kjshoe04
That is just a ton of money. I don't know if I would accept that if I were him really. I'm sure he could get something around that number perhaps and not have to play for the Nationals. It's really a tough choice.
BearSox
The only thing that would prevent me from signing the dotted line is that I would have to play for Nationals.
Thunderbolt
QUOTE (kjshoe04 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 09:30 PM) *
That is just a ton of money. I don't know if I would accept that if I were him really. I'm sure he could get something around that number perhaps and not have to play for the Nationals. It's really a tough choice.

The Nationals have no pitching staff. That being said
C Flores
1b Texiera
2b Belliard
3b Zimmerman
ss Guzman
rf Kearns/Willingham
cf Milledge
lf Dukes/Pena
is a force to be reckoned with.
Shadows
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 08:34 PM) *
The only thing that would prevent me from signing the dotted line is that I would have to play for Nationals.


Man get out of here, I surely hope you are joking

For 200 million I would sign a lifetime contract with the Nationals.. regardless, he could prolly get similar money from a better team but still, 200 million to play a game for 6 months out of the year is nice no matter where you are playing.
Balta1701
QUOTE (Shadows @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 06:38 PM) *
Man get out of here, I surely hope you are joking

For 200 million I would sign a lifetime contract with the Nationals.. regardless, he could prolly get similar money from a better team but still, 200 million to play a game for 6 months out of the year is nice no matter where you are playing.

Knowing Scott Boras, they'd insert an opt-out clause midway through as well.
kjshoe04
QUOTE (Shadows @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 08:38 PM) *
Man get out of here, I surely hope you are joking

For 200 million I would sign a lifetime contract with the Nationals.. regardless, he could prolly get similar money from a better team but still, 200 million to play a game for 6 months out of the year is nice no matter where you are playing.

Well yeah, I'd do anything they asked me for 200 million, but if I had the choice of 10/200 there or something like 8/150 with a more competitive club it would be a tough choice. They are both more money than any person could ever need, but I'd still probably take that extra 50 million guaranteed.
BearSox
QUOTE (Shadows @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 08:38 PM) *
Man get out of here, I surely hope you are joking

For 200 million I would sign a lifetime contract with the Nationals.. regardless, he could prolly get similar money from a better team but still, 200 million to play a game for 6 months out of the year is nice no matter where you are playing.

Some things are more important than money, one of them is not playing for an organization like the Nats.
Balta1701
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 06:52 PM) *
Some things are more important than money, one of them is not playing for an organization like the Nats.

Why are we thinking that Boras wouldn't get an opt-out clause? JD Drew got one. Manny created one. ARod got one. Burnett got one. I'll bet there are other guys that get them who we never hear about them because they suck so badly (Zito).
knightni
Send Javy to the Nationals for prospects.
BearSox
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 08:56 PM) *
Why are we thinking that Boras wouldn't get an opt-out clause? JD Drew got one. Manny created one. ARod got one. Burnett got one. I'll bet there are other guys that get them who we never hear about them because they suck so badly (Zito).


Well, if it was me, I wouldn't even have Boras as my agent. I'd be my own agent.
knightni
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 10:02 PM) *
Well, if it was me, I wouldn't even have Boras as my agent. I'd be my own agent.

That's like saying that you can drive your car and sleep at the same time.
Balta1701
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 07:02 PM) *
Well, if it was me, I wouldn't even have Boras as my agent. I'd be my own agent.

And that's why you'd be poor.
earthshiner
QUOTE
CC Sabathia (11.1): The big left-hander is 28 years old, has never had surgery, and figures to be a workhorse for many years to come. He's the biggest prize on this year's market, and while the Brewers came out of the gate aggressively, Sabathia figures to see bigger numbers from the Yankees.

pun intended?
Milkman delivers
Does anyone else not think Teixeira is worth this at all?
Brian
QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 10:26 PM) *
Does anyone else not think Teixeira is worth this at all?


Not to Washington. He isn't going to help them win anything next year. He's a nice player, but he won't but butts in the seats IMO.
Tony82087
QUOTE (Brian @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:42 AM) *
Not to Washington. He isn't going to help them win anything next year. He's a nice player, but he won't but butts in the seats IMO.

There are talks about him signing a 10 year, 200 million dollar deal. I'm pretty sure the Nats aren't just looking at next year.
Brian
QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 10:50 PM) *
There are talks about him signing a 10 year, 200 million dollar deal. I'm pretty sure the Nats aren't just looking at next year.


I'm not convinced he would help them win within the next 10 years. Nationals are low budget. They are gonna give 20 mil to Tex. That would be half their payroll or near it.
Tony82087
QUOTE (Brian @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:54 AM) *
I'm not convinced he would help them win within the next 10 years. Nationals are low budget. They are gonna give 20 mil to Tex. That would be half their payroll or near it.

Little bit of a contradiction there, don't ya think?

The Nats are starting to establish a core. Obviously they aren't where they want to be yet, but you can start to see a plan developing. Adding Teixeira to the middle of the lineup will go a long way.
Gregory Pratt
QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 10:26 PM) *
Does anyone else not think Teixeira is worth this at all?


He's a very good defensive first baseman who won't even hit 35 homeruns a year or hit for anything resembling a great average. There's nothing about Mark Teixeira that calls for even a hundred million dollar contract.
bigruss22
QUOTE (Gregory Pratt @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:14 AM) *
He's a very good defensive first baseman who won't even hit 35 homeruns a year or hit for anything resembling a great average. There's nothing about Mark Teixeira that calls for even a hundred million dollar contract.

.290/.378/.541/.919 career line including his "decent" rookie season. Thats not too shabby at all. He's averaged about 34 homers a year, and is still only 28. In comparison, Carlos Lee has a career .849 OPS, plays a pretty awful outfield, and averaged 28 homers a year. Plus, he signed his 6/100 million contract at age 31. I think with today's market, Tex deserves $100mill +
Jimbo's Drinker
When does free agency officially begin?
Tony82087
QUOTE (Jimbo's Drinker @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 01:32 AM) *
When does free agency officially begin?

It did about 2 hours ago.
Jimbo's Drinker
Thats what I thought, thanks
witesoxfan
QUOTE (Gregory Pratt @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 11:14 PM) *
He's a very good defensive first baseman who won't even hit 35 homeruns a year or hit for anything resembling a great average. There's nothing about Mark Teixeira that calls for even a hundred million dollar contract.


He's a top 3 1Bman in the league, everything considered, very possibly top 2. Pujols is obviously better, but I can't think of anyone off the top of my head otherwise. He's an XBH machine who walks and does hit for average. He's easily worth a $100+ million contract.
southsider2k5
So he plays in Washington two or three years before forcing a trade to a team he really wanted to go to in the first place?
DBAHO
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 11:13 AM) *
So he plays in Washington two or three years before forcing a trade to a team he really wanted to go to in the first place?

All depends on if the Nationals can develop some good young pitching.

If they signed Teixeira, they'd have a decent enough offensive lineup. Teixeira, Zimmerman, Willingham will offer quite a bit of pop, Milledge is still developing, and Guzman has been pretty good when healthy.

Olson and Lannon (or Lennon I can't remember) offer a decent enough start to the rotation, it's the pitchers behind those 2 they need to find.
Texsox
Reading the entire article

The Nats don't have money to make a play for Manny, but are front runners for Teixeira? lolhitting.gif

If Boras would represent me, I'd hire him in a minute. Hello Grad School with a $100,000 guarantee and no TA load laugh.gif

One player doesn't work on a small or medium payroll, this isn't basketball. No matter if he's "worth" $20 mil per year or not.
Balta1701
QUOTE (Texsox @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 08:32 AM) *
Reading the entire article

The Nats don't have money to make a play for Manny, but are front runners for Teixeira? lolhitting.gif

If Boras would represent me, I'd hire him in a minute. Hello Grad School with a $100,000 guarantee and no TA load laugh.gif

One player doesn't work on a small or medium payroll, this isn't basketball. No matter if he's "worth" $20 mil per year or not.

With a new ballpark and potentially a solid-looking fanbase there in D.C. (I think lobbyists will survive the economic downturn quite well), they probably have a decent amount of money to spend if they want to.
SoxFan101
I think Tex is a nice player and all but I would never give him 20 million a year let alone for 10 years. Id offer more around the 14-16 million range especially if Im going to give him that 10 year security blanket.
SoxFan562004
This goes under the "other bits" subheading... ESPN reporting NYY will offer CC 140m, but they're not saying how many years, also saying they will make big offers to Burnett and Lowe. Kind of expected it, but now it's being reported
Texsox
QUOTE (SoxFan101 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 01:33 PM) *
I think Tex is a nice poster and all but I would never give him 20 million a year let alone for 10 years. Id offer more around the 14-16 million range especially if Im going to give him that 10 year security blanket.


Thanks. tongue.gif I know y'all like my posts and all
Gregory Pratt
I just don't think first basemen, unless they're Albert Pujols or Lou Gehrig -- incidentally, Pujols is on pace to be a much greater player than Gehrig, when all's said and done -- deserve all that money. They're first basemen! Teix hits well for extra bases but his career line is inflated by Texas and he's losing homerun power, however young he is. I just don't see where all this "Oh, Mark Teixeira!" swooning comes from by GMs.

And I don't think Carlos Lee deserved a 100 million dollar contract, either.
knightni
QUOTE (Gregory Pratt @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 02:55 PM) *
incidentally, Pujols is on pace to be a much greater player than Gehrig, when all's said and done -- deserve all that money.


Pujols will never be greater than Gehrig until he averages 140-150 RBI a season for 8 straight seasons.
Kalapse
QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 04:55 PM) *
Pujols will never be greater than Gehrig until he averages 140-150 RBI a season for 8 straight seasons.

Yep and just as soon as you get him in the middle of a lineup with 5 other Hall of Famers (1 of which is Babe Ruth) on a team with a .380 OBP he'll do just that.
Steve9347
QUOTE (Kalapse @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 04:00 PM) *
Yep and just as soon as you get him in the middle of a lineup with 5 other Hall of Famers (1 of them being Babe Ruth) on a team with a .380 OBP he'll do just that.

Pujols would have had 200 RBI in a season with that lineup. If he had ANY protection, he'd average 160.
Gregory Pratt
Gehrig is a great, great player beyond RBI, but Pujols is on pace to be the greatest first baseman of all-time. Of course, "pace" does not mean "guaranteed," but the point remains that Pujols is absolutely incredible.
BearSox
I think the greatest stat about Pujols is his K numbers. He is not only one of the best power hitters in the league, but he doesn't K a billion times a year like other power hitters. Between 50-60 K's for a player now a days is incredibly low for any type of hitter. He's no Joe DiMaggio though... Also, I love that Pujols doesn't sacrifice average for power like a lot of hitters.

It amazes me that a lot of people don't see him as the best player in baseball still.

As for Tex, he is a great player as well. However, I'm trying to figure out how he hits lefties with his right handed stance/approach. If I were him, I'd stick to only lefty, but for some reason he still put up as good, if not better splits, right handed.
Milkman delivers
Let's not pretend that Pujols isn't on HGH.
lostfan
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 15, 2008 -> 10:39 PM) *
It amazes me that a lot of people don't see him as the best player in baseball still.

Best offensive player, probably. Best position player, I'm with DukeNukeEm and going with Hanley Ramirez.
lostfan
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:17 PM) *
With a new ballpark and potentially a solid-looking fanbase there in D.C. (I think lobbyists will survive the economic downturn quite well), they probably have a decent amount of money to spend if they want to.

I know you're probably joking here but a large chunk of the DC job market is gov't employees and contractors. That would include me.
Swingandalongonetoleft
QUOTE (BearSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 08:52 PM) *
Some things are more important than money, one of them is not playing for an organization like the Nats.


They won't be terrible forever. Offering lol money to someone could also attract pieces that wouldn't have even considered the thought of playing for the Nats. My gut, and if I were a Nats front office type would be to throw such sums around, but not at Tex. If say for instance Manny were 3, even 2 years younger I wouldn't wait one second before I made him an offer he couldn't refuse, on this, the day of my daughters wedding. I haven't looked at any numbers so my shot in the dark opinion that he'll be Paul Konerko two years before Paul Konerko became Paul Konerko (sans that one s***show season). I would look elsewhere to throw Ft. Knox at someone if I were the Nats... I would look long and hard because a good major FA signing would work wonders in terms of accelerating their future. If they were set to throw gold at someone, and Soriano was locked up for a few more years, that would be a pristine situation to work with as a GM. You need pitching? Worst comes to worst flip Alf for some, and use the economy that you were going to indulge Tex in on two guys instead of one. There are/were many ways out of their hole. I don't think they'll be bottom dwellers for *too* much longer. f*** Hendry for offering an asanine deal to Soriano...It could have gotten interesting in our nation's capitol.
TheBigHurt
Maybe it's just me, but wouldn't it be smarter to invest 200 million in like... making your team good? Rather than spend it all on one guy? Am I wrong here?
Gregory Pratt
QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 16, 2008 -> 01:21 AM) *
Let's not pretend that Pujols isn't on HGH.


I have the same suspicion. I also believe he's probably a little older than he says.
WilliamTell
200 mil for Teixeira? No way he's going to be worth that for the next 10 years.

With the Pujols/Gehrig comparity, I don't like to compare players from vastly different eras like they played. It's hard to say what each player would do in my opinion.
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