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Posts posted by Disco72

  1. I'm the Commish of a standard Yahoo! FF league. Today, I locked the rosters of the non-playoff teams because some owners were still adding/dropping players despite the fact that there were no more games left to play. One owner is really upset, claiming he paid his league fees for 16 weeks of FF, not just 13 and that if a playoff team wanted the player they could pick him up first (which isn't really true if it is off waivers).


    I made an exception for potential keepers. We have a system were you can keep a player depending on the round in which they were drafted, so there is some value in picking up hurt star players or potential up and comers.


    My view is that their season is over by virtue of not making the playoffs. The owners still playing have a chance to win some decent money, and they shouldn't be shortchanged by some bored owner picking up and dropping random players.


    Any thoughts? Anyone disagree with my decision?

  2. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 03:34 PM)
    I don't understand why you think I'm arguing that. Once again, someone asked why people think he's a sub-par defender, and I said it's because he has a -17.7 career UZR. That's the answer. You're right that we can't transfer that data over to third and know for sure, and I feel like I've said that in every post I've made.


    But, if an infielder is bad at a blend of 2B/SS/3B, I would argue it's more likely he's bad at 3B than it is that he's good at 3B. If you disagree, that's fine -- we really don't know.


    No need to take it further. I felt you were implying that one approach was more statistically (or logically) appropriate than another. My argument is that either the data can tell us something or it cannot. If we do not have enough data to say he plays a good or bad 3B, then we should leave it at that.

  3. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 03:09 PM)
    Right, there is some reason to believe he MIGHT be, but UZR historically doesn't become a reliable indicator of true talent until about three seasons of data. So pick your poison -- small sample of numbers not nearly enough to show the whole picture, or larger sample of numbers that can show a related picture but isn't exactly what you want to see. Again, the truth is somewhere in between. My point on the UZR data from third is that that number doesn't do much for us. I'm more confident that he'll be better at third because I believe it is an easier position, not because of small sample UZR data.


    You can't trade one statistical issue for another and say one is ok and the other isn't. A small sample size means that you might not be observing the actual relationship (thus, the combined 'full season' of 3B datapoints might not be accurate until we get more data). However, it is also statistically incorrect to conflate data gathered at other positions as evidence of a true relationship at a different position. Your point is no more statistically correct than those wanting to use the 3B data only.

  4. QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Dec 2, 2012 -> 12:47 AM)
    For the most part thats how it was done for 36 years, good ol' George was a one man band. The cooking area is right out in front of everyone.


    He did have one girl work for him for a little while but for the most part it was only him, he was open 10-7 Mon-Sat. The hours would be the least of my worries, esp since I'd have a 1 minute commute.


    I'd probably go ahead and bring a friend/partner in to help out and then gauge whether I can handle it myself.


    As you know Reddy I'm a big guy and Georges Gyros has a lot to do with that lol. I've spent many a hours in there just talkin to George while I smash a delicious gyro plate and a chocolate shake that he eventually hooked up for free.


    It sounds like you've got the work ethic and the passion for it. That's awesome! Those are essential. However, you need to learn everything you can. If you are really serious about it, don't just learn by conversation, learn by doing. Know how everything works, know all the costs, know all the problems...then, you can think about actually doing it.

  5. QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 10:58 PM)
    Yes, yes I would.


    I can live without money for awhile (I know you dont start making money for awhile), and I'm passionate in my beliefs that I can run a restaurant.


    Its a small little restaurant with 3 tables and 5 or 6 stools at the long counter so it's not something huge.


    The guy who ran it before this past one flamed out was there for 36 years before he retired to Greece so there's some success to be had in the location despite the bad neighborhood.


    BTW I've seen about every episode of Diners, Drive ins, and Dives and Eat St. and I can't count the number of times where I heard someone say they had no culinary or business background. But those people probably had $$$.


    With all due respect, you have absolutely no idea how to run a restaurant or any other business. Restaurants fail at an incredibly high rate, even amongst those that actually know what they are doing. I apologize if this sounds harsh, but it is a terrible idea. As someone who spends a lot of time around entrepreneurs, the #1 success factor for an entrepreneur is an understanding of the business they are entering.

  6. QUOTE (ROC Sox Fan @ Nov 10, 2012 -> 04:56 PM)
    I'd do 5/$125. Not my money so that's not an issue, but years wise I wouldn't want to go more than 5.


    I wouldn't go more than 3-4 years @ 25 per. Twenty-five is an overpay considering he has shown he won't play a full season.


    As for the "it's not my money argument," it still matters a lot considering the payroll is limited.

  7. QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 10, 2012 -> 01:58 PM)
    How much money is he set to make being a 37 year old? If Rios or Tank are traded I wouldn't mind it, last year he hit over .300 vs. both LHP & RHP so thats a plus.


    I've been preaching adding only LH bats but I guess its moot if the RH bat can hit both LH and RH pitchers.


    Hunter would be a good stop gap until the next wave of Sox OFers are (hopefully) ready.

  8. QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 07:22 PM)
    Let me throw some more stats here to sort out the difference between the 32-11 Baltimore pen and the Sox 25-25 pen.


    Games entered with the lead: Baltimore 218, Sox 219.


    Games entered with a tie: Baltimore 78, Sox 82.


    Games entered behind: Baltimore 196, Sox 165.


    So, Baltimore's bullpen did have more chances to win games, because they entered more games when Baltimore was trailing. But, if they didn't do a better job of holding the other team, Baltimore -- which scored 712 runs to the Sox 748 runs -- wouldn't have been able to win 7 more games in relief.


    As for the losses in relief, Baltimore entered the game with the lead as often as the Sox bullpen pitchers did, and only slightly fewer times in a tie game. This does not explain the difference in losses -- 11 for Baltimore, 25 for the Sox.


    Baltimore's pen clearly did a better job of giving the O's a chance to win games, and blew far fewer games. The Sox pen needs to be better in 2013 for us to compete.


    You are making a lot of inferences from that data that the data doesn't actually prove. What if, for example, Baltimore scored more of their runs late in games than early in games? The bullpen, including new whipping boy Matt Thornton, did a pretty decent job this season.

  9. QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 09:03 PM)
    Anybody watch Shark Tank?


    That last guy was interesting...


    Watched it last night. That last guy was a complete idiot! I've never seen a guy talk himself out of money like that guy did.

  10. QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 10:03 PM)
    Anybody watch Shark Tank?


    That last guy was interesting...


    LOVE Shark Tank, but I haven't seen tonight's episode yet.

  11. QUOTE (dasox24 @ Oct 22, 2012 -> 12:19 PM)
    You've intrigued me. I'm not familiar with Saw Works and having lived in Knoxville for 5 years, I was a little surprised. But then I looked it up and it looks like they started selling in 2011, so I was either gone (or soon to be gone) by then. I look forward to trying this out when I'm back in town.


    It used to be called Marble City, but they had a trademark issue and had to change their name. It's kind of off the beaten path in the Old City on Depot Street.

  12. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 12, 2012 -> 12:37 PM)
    I've mentioned this several times before, but according to the research Tom Tango did on linear weights and the base/out probability, Adam Dunn is a prototypical 3 hole hitter.




    I recommend the reading, but the long and short of it is that the #3 hitter hits with bases empty and two outs more than anyone and also hits with 1 out and a runner on first more than anyone. Therefore, high power is the best attribute of a #3 hitter, and high strikeouts are actually desireable because they avoid double plays and don't hurt any more than other outs when they are the last out of an inning.


    The "traditional" #3 hitter prototype is really what the #2 hitter should be, who gets more RBI-on-a-basehit-or-extra-base-hit opportunities than anyone other than the #4 hitter, and is probably the most wasted lineup spot in "traditional" lineups. I actually LOVE Ventura's lineup construction because Youk/DUnn/Konerko/Rios makes so much sense according to this research. In retrospect, Rios probably should have been the #2 hitter, but #5 is a great place for him too and Youkilis was perfect for it when he was hot.


    Here's a bastardized summary, not nearly as good as the Book itself: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17...-your-lineup-by


    Thanks for the post and the book suggestion. I really enjoy it when I learn something, and when common myths (e.g., about the prototypical 3rd place hitter) are debunked.

  13. Asking what you would do to increase attendance is the wrong question.


    QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Oct 12, 2012 -> 03:14 PM)
    You have to figure the Sox have done the math that lowering the ticket prices wouldn't equal more revenue when accounting for the increase in attendance and money spent on concessions. The bottom line is revenue (at least that is the Reinsorfian model), so you would have to imagine, the set the prices for what they deem to maximize the revenue.


    Yep. So, the real question is, what would you do to increase revenue?


    QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 12, 2012 -> 03:26 PM)
    Here's one more thing: Get CSN on cable satellite systems in the "fringe" areas of the Sox' territory. I'm thinking of Indianapolis in particular but I'm sure there are other areas that are within the blackout territory but don't get CSN.


    The impact is more long-term than immediate, but you can start to build fan bases in those areas. People there are too far to go to a lot of games per year, but maybe the Sox start building a following and they decide to make their 1-2 games per year a Sox game rather than a Cardinals, Reds, or Brewers game. A lot of kids from these areas end up working in the Chicago area after college, and if you've made fans out of them at a young age, you'll get them to more games as adults.


    I'm trying to find a job in either Indianapolis or South Bend, and one of the reasons I'm favoring South Bend is the availability of CSN.


    I really like this idea. The Sox could do a lot better about reaching new fans nearby-but-outside Chicago. When I lived in Peoria, there were almost no Sox games, and I had trouble getting the Sox on TV. If the Sox learned anything about their ill-fated switch to 'pay TV,' it should be that accessibility to the product matters when building and maintaining a fan base. Look at the TV ratings this year: fans were paying attention!

  14. QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Oct 7, 2012 -> 05:14 PM)
    kenny and jerry use attendance as their barometer of payroll. you misread my response


    Maybe I'm still not reading you right. Why would they use attendance as their barometer instead of revenue, since (my assumption is that) attendance makes up a smaller percentage of overall revenue than it used to.

  15. QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Oct 5, 2012 -> 06:10 PM)
    tell that to kenny and jerry


    I don't expect them to ever admit that they don't care. What business ever says to potential customers "we don't need your business?" They just try to get you to buy at whatever price they are offering.

  16. QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Oct 5, 2012 -> 08:14 PM)
    The call cant just be made sooner. Its made when the requirements are met I.e. infielder there. The call can happen whenever.


    I've never been an ump, but all of the people on the TBS broadcast seem to think it was the wrong call. Are they wrong? Why? (not being a jerk, just asking)


    Also, why can't the call be appealed to the other umps? The 3B ump certainly didn't call it that way.

  17. I don't understand why we keep using attendance as the measuring stick. It's clear the Sox are perfectly happy charging a higher price for lower attendance but higher revenue. (Sure, the Sox will whine and try to convince more people to come to the park, but that doesn't change the fact that they are purposefully charging a premium price for what they consider to be a premium product).


    People are watching and paying attention to the Sox (for example, see this article by Telander in late August).


    I know it's frustrating to see a half-filled ballpark, but we, as fans, should care much more about revenue. Revenue is what determines payroll, not the raw number of fans in the stands.

  18. QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Sep 26, 2012 -> 07:15 AM)
    Shocked and pissed off. I really thought something was going to happen at the last second to prevent that.


    However, so far this might be the best season so far. I know it's only been three episodes, but more has happened in those three than in the majority of a couple earlier seasons.


    Gemma is a scheming b****, and I'm growing tired of her. And now Tara is acting just like her.


    I think what happened in prison is going to change Jax. He's going to war, and I assume there will be more casualties.


    Yeah, I'm pissed off too.

    It sucks that they can kill off Opie, a character everyone likes, but not Clay, a character everyone is sick of.


    However, there's a lot of stuff going on right now, which definitely makes it a better season. I think the transitions of Jax and Tara are pretty good - they are becoming Clay and Gemma instead of Jax becoming John.

  19. QUOTE (SI1020 @ Sep 22, 2012 -> 12:11 PM)
    Why are today's MLB pitchers so fragile? Nobody has even come close to giving me a satisfying answer. Everybody in the sporting world everywhere seems bigger, stronger, and faster than those in the past. Advances in training and nutrition are stunning compared to what we thought we knew when I as a kid. So why is 200 IP such a staggering load? How did pitchers in the past string together consecutive years of 300+ IP and come back for more? Inquiring minds want to know. All that being said SS2K5 does have a point about Jake. He may be hitting the wall. In addition to of course not in any way being a big game kind of guy.


    The answer is that pitching is an unnatural motion. A small percentage of pitchers can handle huge workloads, like those in the past (pre-pitch and inning limits), but the vast majority of pitchers will get hurt.


    It's not a question of stamina or strength. You can make muscles stronger, but you can't really make ligaments and tendons stronger, only fix them when they tear.

  20. QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Sep 19, 2012 -> 11:13 PM)

    It's the same guy (plus crew) who is currently giving cover to Jax/banging Gemma, I THINK


    That'd be a great twist! I might have to rewatch the episode and see if that's who it looks like.

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