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Two-Gun Pete

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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete

  1. Two-Gun Pete

    Is Leury's time almost up

    I'm non-plussed by performances coming against shitty teams like Detroit, although irrational exuberance can be commonplace among we the diehards. That said, Leury's only playing more because so many OFers have been out this year. Mendick CANNOT play SS, because his arm isn't strong enough. Billy Hamilton sucks/can't play anywhere in the IF. Also, although Lamb has been hot lately, I'd like to see what Burger can do, now that he's finally discovered the magic of what exercise can do to his fuckton of adipose tissue. This org has not emphasized versatility, either here or in MiLB. Leury became the Swiss army knife by default. Vaughn was only tried at LF after injuries. So, if you as a fan want a better player at a utility role, then maybe this org should do a better job of developing versatile players.
  2. Two-Gun Pete

    Adam Eaton v. Joc Pederson v. Nomar Mazara

    Sure: Eaton is still an old player in decline. Joc's bat still has some value. Nomar Mazara is still one of the suckiest sucks that ever sucked. It sucked that this FO was stoopud enough to trade for a guy that has always sucked at MLB-level baseball.
  3. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    It said May, 2020. I'm guessing that they pull this info from the IRS; all taxpayers have to report their job title. But the data is out there. At the same time, the downturn is a very real reason for borrowing to be capped in some measure. As currently comprised, there is basically no limit to borrowing, other than what a school feels like charging.
  4. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Not really. What do you think mortgage loan underwriters do all day? They do this type of work. If a student wants to borrow, then they'd have to show that they'll be able to repay. If they change their major without notifying the lender, they can be cutoff. It really isn't that hard, IMO.
  5. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    We have a pretty good idea of what people make. You have salary.com, monster.com, and glassdoor.com. But the source I prefer is The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which gives you an idea of wages by occupation, and by geography. For example, according to THIS LINK PTs make a median of $91k/year nationwide, and it breaks it down by geography as well. In addition, we have widely-available stats on what a given degree can lead to in terms of income. As to whether a student changes their major, no big deal! The max amount borrowable could then be adjusted to reflect the probable income, based on the new major. Similarly, if a student wants to go to grad school, then their ability to borrow would then be recalculated, based on the additional degree/forecasted income, LESS any monies already borrowed. Doing so would ward off the "career student" who refuses to grow up, but rather chases degree after degree, without any real endgame or goal in mind.
  6. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    I used to share your/jerksticks' optimism and your/jerksticks' view. But, we also live in a society where payday loans that charge an approximate metric fuckton of interest are allowed to operate. We lived through The Great Recession, where part of the cause were the poor underwriting standards for mortgages at the time. So, lending is an industry where deregulation hasn't worked. Or, at least, it hasn't worked to keep borrowers from being overridden with debt. I think a better way would be to tie the availability of loans at a given school to their graduates' ability to repay them. IOW, if an institution keeps pumping out ill-prepared graduates that can't pay their loans, then that school would then lose their ability to enroll students who pay them via debt. If a school can't prepare their students to obtain gainful employment that enables them to make a living, then they'll close in favor of those that can. Or they'll have to engage in cost-cutting to make it possible for someone to attend without paying through the nose. This is the nature of competition. But, competition has to have rules, or else someone will get fooked by the lack of rules.
  7. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Ok, I think I understand you a bit better. My view is certainly colored by my experience as a loan originator. To qualify for a FHA mortgage, your back-end debt to income ratio generally needs to be 43% or less. (I.e. sum all your monthly minimum debt payments, plus a proposed monthly mortgage payment, divided by your pre-deduction income = back end ratio.) Back end ratio I would propose a similar setup to make a max amount borrowable relative to a student's probable income. For example, Accountants entry level pay is ~$50k/yr to start in Chicago, according to Glassboro.com, or ~$4,200/month. I would tie the max amount a student could borrow to no more than a % of that probable income, based on a 10 year amortization table. IOW, make it probable that a borrower could repay the loan, without getting buried. Correlating that to today's realities, for example, a total of $50k borrowed @ 3.5% interest is a 10 year payment of ~$522/month. SOURCE Now, maybe a total of $50k borrowed could get a kid through the entirety of his program, AND the payments are affordable over a standardized amortization schedule. If so, great! Go ahead and enroll. But if you want to attend Loyola, then maybe not. Or maybe, you go to juco for a few years, then transfer. But the beauty part of tying borrowing to future income is that the loans are much more likely to perform, and the individual borrower is less likely to be debt-fucked for life. Over time, overpriced schools would have to adjust their cost structure, or risk losing attendees to more affordable options. Or compete with similarly priced schools, based on their graduates being hired for more money. Or compete, based on something other than their lazy river.
  8. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Well, almost everything. If borrowers can borrow unlimited amounts of money, a lot will. If lenders can charge unlimited amounts of interest, then a lot will. At the same time, schools that are addicted to unlimited money will simply direct the naive and foolish to continue borrowing as before, with lenders that will abuse the naive and foolish, and nothing will change.
  9. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    1. Good. Nothing more eyes-rolling-worthy than someone whose experience is out of touch with today's realities. 2. Agreed that not everyone needs college. But, for those that do go to college, there has to be a better answer than borrowing to pay for 100 level humanities courses. I mean, one can learn how to think at CLC, CDC, Joliet JC, Moraine Valley, or Wright college, can't they? 3. They've tried counseling, and it doesn't work. If folks are going to borrow, it has to be tied to an ability to repay, or folks can get stuck in debt hell. Also, borrowing has to be capped somehow, or else there will be those that will over-extend themselves.
  10. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    First, I gotta ask: Are you a Boomer, Gen X, or milennial? Second, if we're going to ask people to borrow money, we ALSO have to ask them if/how they will be able to pay it back. Otherwise, you have a moronic mountain of debt that prevents a very real part of America to fail to go forward financially. Third, I agree that learning how to learn and learning how to think are valuable things. But "the college experience" means totally different things if you're a boomer who could "just do work-study" to pay for school, vs. today's kids that are facing $100k+ in debt before they cash a single paycheck. Lastly, I too may be biased, based on having worked in loan origination and in financial planning. I also know how to properly structure debt so that it doesn't over-encumber a borrower, and so that the lender doesn't get screwed, either. As it stands, universities [the folks who benefit from cost inflation and from forcing others to borrow] suffer ZERO CONSEQUENCES for over-encumbering a student, while many students will never accomplish the ROI on a degree to make it worth it. The balance between free cash to schools on the backs of naive borrowers has to change. And that's why I favor student loans to be like other types of loans: Underwritten, and tied to someone's ability to repay. Otherwise, your industry is just taking advantage of the desperate and the naive, whether its a 17 year old kid, or his/her 45 year old parent who didn't attend college, or their foreign born parent who don't have the familiarity to comprehend the cost/benefit analysis to paying for school. [And I say this despite my support for learning, and my belief that education is crucial.]
  11. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    And universities know this. Think about the process of getting into/accepting, and then enrolling into college: A kid takes the ACT/SAT, THEN goes on their campus visits, THEN applies/gets accepted. By this point, a child's underdeveloped sense of consequences may have already been overwhelmed by the beauty of the campus, how hot the coeds are on campus, or how cool the football uniforms are. THEN, the family gets their financial aid letter from the school; the child may have already made up their minds to attend the school with the best lazy river, whether or not its worth it to them. Lastly, the child picks the school to attend. Marketers know that if you go into a store and pickup an item, you're ALREADY halfway on your way to buying it, whether or not you can afford it. With colleges/universities, "the sale was closed" [of getting a student hooked] well before the cost of attending was worked out. For me, I'd turn the enrollment process on it's ear. I think it would be better to: 1. Have the kid take the ACT/SATs, 2. Apply for financial aid/MAX loan amount available, based on a kid's forecasted future earnings [akin to getting pre-qualified for a mortgage], 3. Apply for acceptance to a school, who then 4. Send back how much out of pocket/how much one would have to borrow to attend, and THEN 5. A family can go on their campus visits. [akin to touring a house, once you've got the mortgage prequalification done] 6. Lastly, a student could accept/reject an offer to attend a school.
  12. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    I really wish this was the case. But, in my practice, that hasn't always been what folks shop for. In the video ron posted, schools are competing for future students on terms of useless luxury items that have zero educational benefit, and zero benefit to a student's future earnings. Like lazy rivers, rock climbing walls, hell, even the quality of the football or basketball program. [In all my years of hiring folks, I've never once given a rip about the school one went to, and how they placed in the AP Top 20.] OTOH, as I've posted, schools have completely unfettered access to virtually free money, with complete and total impunity. Loans are NOT underwritten, and are NOT subject to proof of future ability to repay. Calling student loans a "social good," but exposing folks to a lifetime of debt servitude is The Law of Unintended Consequences in action. The result of unimpeded flow of free money into universities, while a complete lack of underwriting loans is a several-decades-long track of college costs increasing without any end in sight, while borrowers now have more student debt than we as a society have in credit card debt.
  13. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    From Yahoo.com on PLUS loans A few things that struck me as interesting: A blue collar family ended up owing half a mill in PLUS loans. ..."It’s also easier to accumulate heavier debts, because the only cap on parent PLUS loans is the total cost of attendance, minus any other aid provided...." ..."The Education Department views these loans — as it does all student loans — as “instruments of social insurance policy and not traditional debt,” which is why they are not subject to traditional underwriting norms, a spokesperson said." ..."Currently, “there are no repercussions if the parent can’t pay and defaults in the future,” said Fishman of New America. “It is ‘free money’ for the institution.” I see this sort of thing from time to time at work. And I think it would help to do something about proving one's ability to repay all types of student loans, to include these moronic PLUS loans.
  14. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Yeah, I saw that you'd posted it already. I highlighted those specific portions, because bmags was claiming the exact opposite of what that link said. That aside, "herd immunity" is a best-guess estimate, in any case. In a massive, continental-sized nation such as ours, it is incredibly difficult, if not impossible to pinpoint the exact percentage. Nature on calculating herd immunity So when Fauci gave an estimate, it wasn't "a lie," as the conspiracy theorists moronically bray about. Its an estimate. A best educated guess. In any case, it's a theoretical number, not an answer to an arithmetic word problem in grammar school. Herd Immunity Is Probably Impossible to Achieve These two links taken together, to me means that even IF Fauci "didn't tell us everything," who gives a flying fuck about that? Herd immunity is a guesstimate at a percentage. Even with Herd Immunity, outbreaks and flare-ups will still occur. And in our population, Herd Immunity may not even be achievable. IOW, if he guessed incorrectly and/or didn't tell us everything (i guarantee your MD doesn't), it ain't "a lie." And it certainly ain't some moronic conspiracy that mouthbreathers read on their farcebook "news" feeds. All that said, I can agree with you that maybe there are better communicators available in that industry. And I can agree with you that an 80 year old Fauci probably should hand off his work to the next generation. But "lies?" "Conspiracy?" Fucking laughable.
  15. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Not that they'll read this, but here we go: Politifact Check on Fauci and masking Politifact check on Faucis emails Plus all of these from USATODAY But hey, since some dude who wore a bow tie on tv told me so, a lifelong public servant and physician just must be a "Con artist," amirite? Say, do braying shouters on TV have to take an oath of duty? Do physicians have to take some hippocratic sort of oath? Just askin'....
  16. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    1. Earlier, you said that if only Fauci said we should wear masks, then they would suddenly be produced domestically. Now, after you posted an example of an imported mask, it was "ok to import them," during a worldwide pandemic, and shelter in place orders. Make up your mind. Because if you're going to blame Fauci for not ramping up domestic production of cloth masks, then move the goalposts to "importing them is fine," then your overarching argument falls apart. 2. I think I understand where your confusion comes from when you read the phrase, "surgical mask." This is an example of a surgical mask: SURGICAL MASK The blue or yellow thing with elastic earloops and an embedded wire for your nose. Those are and were the most common masks I've seen, both here in Chicago and other places I've been over the past year. They're also almost entirely from China, and were not in widespread circulation at the start of the pandemic. Hell, there were folks working in Healthcare facilities and nursing homes that had a hard time getting these. Or, some had to procure their own. (I have clients that worked at Rush who had to buy some of their own and/or recycle a used one back then.) 3. I agree that mistakes were made, by Fauci and others. But, were still waiting to hear about all the other "lies Fauci told." (I'm also waiting to hear from rabbit how a guy appointed by Reagan suddenly became a capricious, self-serving partisan, despite decades of evidence to the contrary.) Insofar as "preparation for the next pandemic" goes, the previous administration had one gifted to them: PANDEMIC PLAN If you didn't like that plan, and the lack of usage of it going into this pandemic, take it up with Mr. Bleach Injections. And sure, if there's an argument to replace Fauci with someone else, I'm also game to hear suggestions.
  17. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    1. Yes, Fauci said that there wasn't a supply publicly available then. But he ALSO said that masks weren't 100% protective, which made him (then) cast doubts on their efficacy as a public health measure. See? People can have more than one idea at the same time. Especially a medical doctor. 2. You do know that different strains of influenza spread in different ways, right? In the same way, a new (or NOVEL) coronavirus might spread differently than other strains. Once the scientific community established the route and there was supply, they recommended their use. As an aside, show us where Fauci, or any medical professional does NOT recommend hand washing, coronavirus or not. If you aren't washing your hands, you're a fool. 3. And yet, you previously claimed that the US could produce all the cloth face coverings they need. (We can't. ) And then, you post a product that ain't even made here. There aren't "millions of times" more factories here to make garments of any type in the US. We've become a nation that overwhelmingly imports our clothing. (And as you said, pretty much every other type of product.) Say, by the way: You promised us other examples of "lies told by Fauci." Lets see them. Also, exactly what would anyone have done differently, when your boss recommends drinking bleach?
  18. Two-Gun Pete

    2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

    Given the pads' injuries, the cubs just might be better than them. At least, right now.
  19. Two-Gun Pete

    2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

    Meh, did you see anything to suggest that the SOX were better than the yankmees?
  20. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    1. There was at that time, both incomplete science insofar as face coverings, AND a lack of supply. 2. You just described the DEVELOPING science of what was a NOVEL coronavirus. IOW, using the scientific method to adapt approaches as new information becomes researched, developed, and interpreted. Ya know, kinda like going from a "flat earth" model to later accepting a globe as the shape of the planet we inhabit. Or Copernicus discovering a heliocentric solar system. So using your "ex post facto" pseudo-analysis, using current facts to critique what fauci was doing then, doesn't really work. 3. And this is really important: That mask you just posted is IMPORTED. IOW, not from the US of A, as you had claimed was so important earlier. There was and is not a sufficient supply chain for domestically produced cloth masks. There ain't a lot of clothing you or I wear that comes from this country. Kannapolis doesn't make fieldcrest towels any more. It ain't 1985 any more. And that's one reason why we don't have a lot of folks wearing cloth masks, and really, why this wasn't a realistic alternative then, or now. Oh yeah, and why most folks, including health care types, use the cheap Chinese made types.
  21. Two-Gun Pete

    2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

    Getting swept by them will lead one to believe that the yankmees are better than our SOX. At least, this roster, without Robert and Jimenez. We'll see where the two teams are relative to each other once injury luck starts to balance out.
  22. Two-Gun Pete

    2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

    Agreed. The amount of pants-pissing about the incredible pile of OF injuries, leading some to want to make a panic buy is stoopud. Yes, I think the yankmees are better than their record. And to your point, when they get healthy and right, look out. Tampa's also right there with anyone else in the AL. And yes, LAD will be even better, once they get healthy. But this roster, regardless of who they can realistically add at this point, while subtracting anything from the MLB roster, probably isn't as good as others. Now, IF TLR managed the BP like a modern manager would, AND if there was someone who could provide ~80% of what Kopech can, then maybe it could work. IOW, if Hendriks was used like Hader is, and there was another pitcher down on the farm to take Kopech's place, maybe Kopech-for-Yelich MIGHT work. I kinda doubt it, though.
  23. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Disagreed. I can tell you that pretty much everyone who has worked in Healthcare in the past decade has probably never used a non-chinese made mask over that timeframe. So having masks made and available to the American public is not a matter of snapping Faucis fingers, and magically making them available. Either to JUST Healthcare workers, let alone to all 340MM+ residents of the US. As to making cloth masks magically available, look around you: a year+ into this pandemic, the overwhelming majority of Americans still wear the cheap Chinese surgical-style masks. So yes, ramping up and building a sufficient and reliable supply chain that was entirely domestically based just was not going to magically happen then. FFS, it hasn't happened NOW, a year later. (Though it probably should, IMO.) Then you had all the mask Karens who all got their jollies berating the Costco manager for forcing them to mask up. Ya know, the so-called "sovereign citizens" who all "had medical conditions" that exempted them from masking up in the first place. So yeah, there was an availability issue, and there was a public acceptance issue as well. There was and is no magic bullet to these issues. That said, as a matter of public health and national readiness, there are certain commodities that absolutely need to be made here.
  24. Two-Gun Pete

    2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

    Oh, I agree with all of this as well. I doubt that Kopech would be moved. The thought exercise is this: 1. It is clear that this roster (without Robert & Eloy) is probably not better than the yankmees in the AL, and certainly not better than LAD in the NL 2. If an addition is undertook (i.e. subtracting Kopech from this roster, and a bat added) would THAT roster be better than the yankmees or LAD? To me, I say "no." I don't think that Yelich, or really, ANY addition, while subtracting Kopech from this roster is enough to be a WS favorite. Without Kopech in the pen, I think this team is not good enough. Without Robert/Eloy, I don't think the offense is potent enough. So, I think the right move is to tread water with the #5/6/7 OFers (Leury/Hamilton/Vaughn) until the #4/1/2 OFers (Engel/Robert/Eloy) get back.
  25. Two-Gun Pete

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Yes, that one was already known. To the bolded, what other "noble lies" are known? I'm game to hear them.
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