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A Realistic Offseason

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1 minute ago, chetkincaid said:

I don't understand the fascination with Brett Gardner here. He looks like he's 40 and seems like he'll fall apart the minute he leaves the Yankees.

obp/vet/cheap/surprisingly good defensive metrics.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Considering the danger of not getting Grandal if they cut loose McCann and instead getting stuck with Collins catching 120 games...a disaster of unmitigated proportions or a boon to fans of Nick Hostetler’s talent evaluation process.

Grandal should absolutely be priority 1A or 1B this offseason. No QO attached, he would be a rock solid starter for the next four seasons for us. 

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Just now, steveno89 said:

Grandal should absolutely be priority 1A or 1B this offseason. No QO attached, he would be a rock solid starter for the next four seasons for us. 

I'd put Grandal pretty far below RF/DH/SP tbh.

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6 minutes ago, chetkincaid said:

I don't understand the fascination with Brett Gardner here. He looks like he's 40 and seems like he'll fall apart the minute he leaves the Yankees.

Agreed. Gardner makes no sense in RF.

A trade for Pederson or Reddick makes sense for RF.

 

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2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I'd put Grandal pretty far below RF/DH/SP tbh.

Grandal basically solves C/DH/1B assuming Abreu is retained.  Between Abreu, Grandal, McCann and Collins, those three positions are covered. 

FA is really solvable via FA unless its a 1 year stop gap.  So not a ton of capital needs to be deployed there. Pretty obvious they'll try to find a trade partner there.  

I would agree that SP should be 1A, but Grandal should be 1B.  

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

UZR has him being a slightly positive to neutral fielding RF for the last 6 seasons. He's not great there, but he is a dramatic upgrade from our RF defense last year.

Baseball reference has him playing only one game (8 innings) for his entire career in RF.

 

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9 minutes ago, KennyPowers said:

Agreed. Gardner makes no sense in RF.

A trade for Pederson or Reddick makes sense for RF.

I am not a big champion of Gardner, but he's one of the better stop gap options.  How can you say Gardner makes no sense, and then in the next sentence suggest a trade for Reddick who by all measures is an inferior player to Gardner.  Only positive to Reddick is he is a couple years younger, but for 1 season that doesn't matter much.  I don't think anyone here is interested in giving Gardner a 3 year $30M deal, but if you can get him for 1 year $8-10M and all trade options in RF are too expensive or don't work out for whatever reason, there are definitely worse options in RF for a year.

Reddick 2019 stats: .275/.319/.409; OPS .728; 89 OPS+

Gardner: .251/.325/.503; OPS .829; 117 OPS+

Edited by ChiSox59
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13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you want to play that game - you don't get to just look at the 5th starter and the RF and say that those guys upgrade those positions. You're not replacing the RF with Robert, you're replacing Adam Engel, who was a .8 fWAR player. You're not replacing your DH with Madrigal, you're replacing your 1.0 fWAR Yolmer Sanchez. You're not replacing your 5th starter with Kopech - right now you're replacing Ivan Nova and his 2.0 fWAR with him. So, from your 70 win team, with the numbers you just quoted, you have added 2.4 fWAR. That does not make you a .500 team.

If you throw in improvement at several more positions - Eloy 2 extra fWAR Cease 2 extra fWAR, Lopez 2 extra fWAR - now you're approaching a possible .500 team, but that's also assuming no one (McCann, Abreu, Anderson) regresses from their 2019 seasons, which is also possible. 

That leaves you a long way to go in free agency. 

To look at the math another way, we are at 23.3 fWAR in 2019. Minnesota was at 54.9. With some margin for error, you need to find 30 fWAR. You've added 2.4 from the list you just said. I will give you another 10 fWAR from guys on this roster - extremely optimistic but not impossible. You upgrade the DH spot, 5th starter, and RF to 2 win players - from the numbers above that's 11 additional fWAR counting the -5 fWAR noted above and 6 added by those players directly. That brings the White Sox to a healthy 46.7 fWAR. That is a solid, strong team, but if fWAR translated directly to records (which admittedly it doesn't) - you are 8 games behind the 2019 Twins. Furthermore, the AL Central has, for 50+ fWAR teams going back to the World series winning Royals, so you do need to load up. Cleveland will be back next year, and could be even stronger - they were demolished by injuries this year and their pitching staff has already found new blood.

There is more that can be found elsewhere. Moncada and Giolito could turn into Bregman and Cole. Cease could come out and do a Giolito. You can improve the bullpen. There are ways to get this team to 50 fWAR based on internal development. But this act that this team is somehow a guaranteed world series contender and the setup you just did to find 10 wins - doesn't work the way you want it to.

I don't "want" it to work any specific way. I admit that it was a very inexact way of looking at things, and I believe poppy is being overly optimistic, but I just don't think it's as outlandish as you were making it sound that those three guys could improve the team by 10 wins.

I wasn't saying Madrigal was replacing the DH. I was saying Madrigal was replacing Yolmer (so improving from 1.0 to 1.6), so I was only adding 0.6 there. Robert and Kopech replacing our horrible outfield and 5th starter production could amount to several added wins (yes, like you said, Robert is actually replacing our CF, but either way, he could add a lot more production).

Bottom line: Adding Madrigal, Robert, guys like Grandal and a decent RF, Kopech, two more free agent starters, and another bullpen guy could realistically improve this team to 90 wins or so. Nothing is guaranteed, and it completely depends on who we sign, but we should be a playoff contender if we have a good offseason in terms of free agents. Even if guys like Giolito and Moncada regress, we will be adding enough to still be in the hunt for the playoffs. 

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21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You lost me at the bolded.  McCann isn't a FA, is coming of a 2.3 fWAR season and could be had for less than $5 million via arb.  There is a zero percent chance the Sox non-tender McCann. 

More or less he had a career year in almost every category and those we're driven by the first half stats. His second half had a BA, OBP about 100 points less than the first half. His OPS was almost 200 points less in the second half. He's a pumpkin who had a crazy good half of one season. If you want to make the argument that he served as Giolito's personal catcher I can see that angle... but i dont think that's worth $5mm+. Giolito isn't going to have McCann around his whole career. So I'd cut bait now. 

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10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Grandal basically solves C/DH/1B assuming Abreu is retained.  Between Abreu, Grandal, McCann and Collins, those three positions are covered. 

FA is really solvable via FA unless its a 1 year stop gap.  So not a ton of capital needs to be deployed there. Pretty obvious they'll try to find a trade partner there.  

I would agree that SP should be 1A, but Grandal should be 1B.  

I think it's easier to solve our DH/RF woes via trade or potentially free agency than to find out who will lock down the catcher position for the next few years. Rolling into 2020 onward with only McCann would be a mistake if his 2019 was a fluke. 

SP is absolutely a priority. Sadly we will not likely be in on Cole, but any of the other top arms could potentially be in play. Strasburg is interesting if he opts out? 

Still working on my Socmachine offseason plan, but it will have a few wrinkles in it

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5 minutes ago, KennyPowers said:

Baseball reference has him playing only one game (8 innings) for his entire career in RF.

 

Yeah i'm sure it will be devastating. 

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3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Bottom line: Adding Madrigal, Robert, guys like Grandal and a decent RF, Kopech, two more free agent starters, and another bullpen guy could realistically improve this team to 90 wins or so. Nothing is guaranteed, and it completely depends on who we sign, but we should be a playoff contender if we have a good offseason in terms of free agents. Even if guys like Giolito and Moncada regress, we will be adding enough to still be in the hunt for the playoffs. 

A 90 win team is entirely plausible with this roster, but the list of guys that made me scoff at this - those guys on their own get you no where near .500. Those guys plus a lot of other internal improvement - that gets you to .500.

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2 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

More or less he had a career year in almost every category and those we're driven by the first half stats. His second half had a BA, OBP about 100 points less than the first half. His OPS was almost 200 points less in the second half. He's a pumpkin who had a crazy good half of one season. If you want to make the argument that he served as Giolito's personal catcher I can see that angle... but i dont think that's worth $5mm+. Giolito isn't going to have McCann around his whole career. So I'd cut bait now. 

You can't non-tender McCann as you do not have any other viable catching option in house. 

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am not a big champion of Gardner, but he's one of the better stop gap options.  How can you say Gardner makes no sense, and then in the next sentence suggest a trade for Reddick who by all measures is an inferior player to Gardner.  Only positive to Reddick is he is a couple years younger, but for 1 season that doesn't matter much.  I don't think anyone here is interested in giving Gardner a 3 year $30M deal, but if you can get him for 1 year $8-10M and all trade options in RF are too expensive or don't work out for whatever reason, there are definitely worse options in RF for a year.

Reddick 2019 stats: .275/.319/.409; OPS .728; 89 OPS+

Gardner: .251/.325/.503; OPS .829; 117 OPS+

If we are picking a stop gap for RF it would be wise to actually pick a RF. Just saying.

Wow - the love for Gardner is mind boggling.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

More or less he had a career year in almost every category and those we're driven by the first half stats. His second half had a BA, OBP about 100 points less than the first half. His OPS was almost 200 points less in the second half. He's a pumpkin who had a crazy good half of one season. If you want to make the argument that he served as Giolito's personal catcher I can see that angle... but i dont think that's worth $5mm+. Giolito isn't going to have McCann around his whole career. So I'd cut bait now. 

Ok, you're welcome to your opinion, and I would agree wholeheartedly that 2nd half 2019 McCann is likely the McCann we see in 2020.  But he's still worth $4.9M projected arb price, and there is no chance he is non-tendered.

I also am strongly for signing Grandal, which would relegate McCann to Gio's personal catcher, and get some starts other against LHP.  He still definitely has a role on this club.   

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1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

I think it's easier to solve our DH/RF woes via trade or potentially free agency than to find out who will lock down the catcher position for the next few years. Rolling into 2020 onward with only McCann would be a mistake if his 2019 was a fluke. 

SP is absolutely a priority. Sadly we will not likely be in on Cole, but any of the other top arms could potentially be in play. Strasburg is interesting if he opts out? 

Still working on my Socmachine offseason plan, but it will have a few wrinkles in it

James McCann has only 1 arbitration year left, so even if he's brought back we're not thinking about 2021 with him, we're thinking about Collins and either a developmental option backup (Zavala?) or a free agent option.

JMO - Collins was still serviceable behind the plate the times I watched him, and although I couldn't evaluate his pitch selection I liked him back there better than Castillo. So, if they decide to go elsewhere for the DH spot, I'm totally ok with Collins and McCann back there this year. There are catching options next offseason (including Realmuto if you wanted to get expensive), so even if we have a hole there, it's a hole that could be filled. 

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Just now, KennyPowers said:

If we are picking a stop gap for RF it would be wise to actually pick a RF. Just saying.

Wow - the love for Gardner is mind boggling.

Not sure how you define that post as "love".  He's a passable stopgap.

Setting aside trade options for a second because those are difficult to handicap, please list to me a few better free agent options in RF.  Please consider factors such as defense, lineup balance and contract.  

I'll wait.  

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No person that plays 98 games in CF could ever possibly be expected to play RF. It's impossible. It doesn't translate.

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24 minutes ago, KennyPowers said:

Baseball reference has him playing only one game (8 innings) for his entire career in RF.

 

I deleted that post, I got crossed up and thought the question was about reddick, seeing additional conversation made me realize that line referred to Gardner. 

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13 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

You can't non-tender McCann as you do not have any other viable catching option in house. 

Rewind 1 year and re-read the comments and expectations on McCann. Then look at his second half stats. Then look at MLB production at Catcher. 

All i'm saying is $5mm is a lot of money for a catcher that's likely to hit .230 next year. I'd be just as comfortable with Yermen Mercedes and Collins if need be. We're not winning next year anyways, so who cares if you take some lumps figuring out if one of those two guys can be your guy if you strikeout on Grandal? 

Secondly, just don't strike out on Grandal. Simple as that. 

Again, just my thoughts. I thank McCann for a fun year like I thank Palka for a fun year in 2018. I doubt McCann will be on the roster at the end of 2020 even if he does get his $5mm arb. 

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14 minutes ago, KennyPowers said:

If we are picking a stop gap for RF it would be wise to actually pick a RF. Just saying.

Wow - the love for Gardner is mind boggling.

 

 

He's not my favorite option, but I doubt he leaves the Yanks anyway.

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1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

Rewind 1 year and re-read the comments and expectations on McCann. Then look at his second half stats. Then look at MLB production at Catcher. 

All i'm saying is $5mm is a lot of money for a catcher that's likely to hit .230 next year. I'd be just as comfortable with Yermen Mercedes and Collins if need be. We're not winning next year anyways, so who cares if you take some lumps figuring out if one of those two guys can be your guy if you strikeout on Grandal? 

Secondly, just don't strike out on Grandal. Simple as that. 

Again, just my thoughts. I thank McCann for a fun year like I thank Palka for a fun year in 2018. I doubt McCann will be on the roster at the end of 2020 even if he does get his $5mm arb. 

McCann's second half splits were pretty brutal. It would be foolish to think he's anything more than a backup for a competitive team moving forward. 

If I could only make two free agent signing this offseason they would be a SP and Grandal all day

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16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A 90 win team is entirely plausible with this roster, but the list of guys that made me scoff at this - those guys on their own get you no where near .500. Those guys plus a lot of other internal improvement - that gets you to .500.

Yeah, we're basically on the same page. I guess the real question in terms of what you had an issue with would be this:  What would you think our record would be with this roster next year:

Lineup:

1. Robert CF

2. Moncada 3B

3. Eloy LF

4. Abreu 1B

5. Collins DH

6. Anderson SS

7. McCann C

8. Leury RF

9. Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

1. Giolito

2. Kopech

3. Cease

4. Lopez

5. Nova

Bullpen is the same as last year.

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